Who is the better player (Wiggins vs LaVine)

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I think Abe's take is right...Zach's best role would probably be as a 6th man providing scoring off the bench but not having to defend against a starter. His 3-point shooting has been terrible (under 30% this year), but I have to believe he may progress to his mean...which I think is closer to 35% for him. The Bulls aren't stupid, so they have to be aware that they are starting a guy who is the 4th worst defender in the league...but they just don't have any other options, and they need his scoring. If I were them though, I would be looking to trade him at the deadline to a contender who really needs scoring off the bench. I think they could get a decent haul if he is still averaging 25PPG, and unload a bad contract at the same time.

Wig, on the other hand, seems to be an NBA starter to me...certainly not a max contract worthy one, but at least capable enough on both ends of the court to be a complementary player. He's still averaging almost 16 PPG as a third option (at best) and is still hitting his 3's at a higher than average rate (and much better than Zach, of course), so last night to the contrary, he's not a "Zach defense-like" disaster on the offensive end. And most here have noticed that he also has turned himself into at least an average NBA defender, and most defensive metrics bear this out. A max player? Nope, far from it...and I would love it if somehow we could trade him profitably. But he's still a far more complete player than Zach. That said, it's absurd that Thibs doesn't give Okogie some of Wig's minutes when he plays like he did last night.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I think Abe's take is right...Zach's best role would probably be as a 6th man providing scoring off the bench but not having to defend against a starter. His 3-point shooting has been terrible (under 30% this year), but I have to believe he may progress to his mean...which I think is closer to 35% for him. The Bulls aren't stupid, so they have to be aware that they are starting a guy who is the 4th worst defender in the league...but they just don't have any other options, and they need his scoring. If I were them though, I would be looking to trade him at the deadline to a contender who really needs scoring off the bench. I think they could get a decent haul if he is still averaging 25PPG, and unload a bad contract at the same time.

Wig, on the other hand, seems to be an NBA starter to me...certainly not a max contract worthy one, but at least capable enough on both ends of the court to be a complementary player. He's still averaging almost 16 PPG as a third option (at best) and is still hitting his 3's at a higher than average rate (and much better than Zach, of course), so last night to the contrary, he's not a "Zach defense-like" disaster on the offensive end. And most here have noticed that he also has turned himself into at least an average NBA defender, and most defensive metrics bear this out. A max player? Nope, far from it...and I would love it if somehow we could trade him profitably. But he's still a far more complete player than Zach. That said, it's absurd that Thibs doesn't give Okogie some of Wig's minutes when he plays like he did last night.

How much stock are we putting into a 16 game sample size?

Wiggins is slightly ahead of the league average on three pointers (36.5% vs. 34.9%)... does that take precedence over the previous 323 games and 4 seasons when Wiggins never reached the league average even once?

Meanwhile, LaVine is a career 36.5% shooter over 249 games. Perhaps he's regressed... he's struggled his entire time in Chicago on three pointers.

As for Wiggins' defense... what metrics are you talking about. You used DBPM to rip LaVine... but Wiggins is very poor in that metric as well -- while being an astronomically low -2.7 offensively. Via that advanced stat, hes been worse than average (or downright bad) on both ends... for multiple seasons

[Lipoli390]

LST -

I think the true predictive mean for LaVine's 3-point shooting is at least around 37%. That was his career percentage in 4 seasons before this one. His current percentage is anomalous and should get very little weight in predicting where he'll end up, especially when you consider his pristine and consistent shooting form. Also, keep in mind he's been playing a lot of PG this season, which hurts his shooting.

When comparing Zach and Andrew it's important to look at trajectory. Wiggins has been regressing in nearly every category except advanced defensive metrics while Zach has been improving in multiple categories including rebounds and assists. And he's done so in spite of getting derailed by an ACL tear.

Another advantage with Zach over Wiggins is that you can count in Zach to deliver on his strengths every game while Andrew's presumes strength, defense, still comes and goes as we saw last night.

I don't think we've seen enough of Zach recently to adequately gauge his defense. His defense was actually pretty good last night. I don't think any player's defense can be accurately assessed on a team as lacking in talent as the Bulls.

Again, ask yourself whether the Bulls would trade Zach straight up for Wiggins now. I think the answer is an obvious hell no.

[thedoper]

You can still count on Zach to lose. His biggest offensive weakness has been his assist rate relative to his time with the ball. His stats both sides of the ball scream loser if you make him the focal point of an offense. He's a scorer and nothing more, which is a legit accomplishment. But he has never made players around him better or complimented the lineups he was in. His D is garbage and so is his control of an offense as a primary ball handler. He's an ideal 6th man with very problematic metrics for a "scorer".

Wiggins is problematic too. Wiggins is a complementary piece, a streaky offensive player that is becoming a good defender. He looks like a 4th or 5th starter like LST said.

I think both are not great relative to what they're getting paid, and maybe because of the flexibility I give the slight edge to Zach as an asset, but both are grossly overpaid relative to their production. Ultimately I will repeat at this point, "who cares?" Wiggins needs to get better and so does Zach if they're going maximize their immense physical talents. If Zach were on this team he'd be driving down both of our advanced team metrics. The main point for me is that I would much rather have Dario and Roco over Zach and Lauri.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Yeah, pick your poison here. LaVine looked like a mess last night and so did Wiggins. Covington guarding him certainly had something to do with it.

I agree that Zach should be a 6th man scorer. He's perfect for that role.

Wiggins...I'm getting closer and closer to wanting Okogie to start ahead of him, but we know Thibs would never do that.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

They're just 2 completely different players. Zach is a ball handling and shooting guard and Wiggins is a scoring and improving defensive wing. Neither are worth the contract they get paid. Zach's skill set is probably best off the bench. Wiggins can at least start because he doesn't kill you on either end and has flashes on both ends of great play. I'd give the slight, slight edge to Wiggins until Zach can actually prove to help a winning team. Until then he's just another stats on a bad team guy.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I think Abe's take is right...Zach's best role would probably be as a 6th man providing scoring off the bench but not having to defend against a starter. His 3-point shooting has been terrible (under 30% this year), but I have to believe he may progress to his mean...which I think is closer to 35% for him. The Bulls aren't stupid, so they have to be aware that they are starting a guy who is the 4th worst defender in the league...but they just don't have any other options, and they need his scoring. If I were them though, I would be looking to trade him at the deadline to a contender who really needs scoring off the bench. I think they could get a decent haul if he is still averaging 25PPG, and unload a bad contract at the same time.

Wig, on the other hand, seems to be an NBA starter to me...certainly not a max contract worthy one, but at least capable enough on both ends of the court to be a complementary player. He's still averaging almost 16 PPG as a third option (at best) and is still hitting his 3's at a higher than average rate (and much better than Zach, of course), so last night to the contrary, he's not a "Zach defense-like" disaster on the offensive end. And most here have noticed that he also has turned himself into at least an average NBA defender, and most defensive metrics bear this out. A max player? Nope, far from it...and I would love it if somehow we could trade him profitably. But he's still a far more complete player than Zach. That said, it's absurd that Thibs doesn't give Okogie some of Wig's minutes when he plays like he did last night.

How much stock are we putting into a 16 game sample size?

Wiggins is slightly ahead of the league average on three pointers (36.5% vs. 34.9%)... does that take precedence over the previous 323 games and 4 seasons when Wiggins never reached the league average even once?

Meanwhile, LaVine is a career 36.5% shooter over 249 games. Perhaps he's regressed... he's struggled his entire time in Chicago on three pointers.

As for Wiggins' defense... what metrics are you talking about. You used DBPM to rip LaVine... but Wiggins is very poor in that metric as well -- while being an astronomically low -2.7 offensively. Via that advanced stat, hes been worse than average (or downright bad) on both ends... for multiple seasons

I agree that we may be putting too much stock into a 16-game sample size, but I'm only doing it because a comparison of career numbers would favor Wig because he was a go-to guy. You make a fair point about Zach being a career 36.5% shooter, but we don't know the impact his knee injury has had (and may continue to have) on his shooting...he's closer to 32% since he was injured, far below the league average. Who's to say if the 43 games he has played since the injury are a good indication of how he is going to continue to shoot, but if it is, it's not very promising for Zach. I'll leave it to the defensive stat gurus here to provide some empirical data comparing Wig/Zach, but I would wager the numbers aren't going to be very favorable to Zach.

Abe, I'm not quite sure where you are getting your RPM data from. The latest ESPN numbers are:


Wig: Offense: -.33 Defense -.41 Overall -.74

Zach:Offense:.52 Defense-2.73 Overall -2.21


Granted it's just one measure, but it's quite lopsided in favor of our guy. We're not happy about paying a max salary to a guy who measures a minus .74, but let's at least be thankful we're no longer saddled with the minus 2.21 guy!

[Lipoli390]

You can still count on Zach to lose. His biggest offensive weakness has been his assist rate relative to his time with the ball. His stats both sides of the ball scream loser if you make him the focal point of an offense. He's a scorer and nothing more, which is a legit accomplishment. But he has never made players around him better or complimented the lineups he was in. His D is garbage and so is his control of an offense as a primary ball handler. He's an ideal 6th man with very problematic metrics for a "scorer".

Wiggins is problematic too. Wiggins is a complementary piece, a streaky offensive player that is becoming a good defender. He looks like a 4th or 5th starter like LST said.

I think both are not great relative to what they're getting paid, and maybe because of the flexibility I give the slight edge to Zach as an asset, but both are grossly overpaid relative to their production. Ultimately I will repeat at this point, "who cares?" Wiggins needs to get better and so does Zach if they're going maximize their immense physical talents. If Zach were on this team he'd be driving down both of our advanced team metrics. The main point for me is that I would much rather have Dario and Roco over Zach and Lauri.

Fair points, Doper. I'd take Dario, Roco and Zach over Dario Roco and Wiggins. Had we traded Wiggins instead of LaVine for Butler, we'd have either Markkenan or Dunn (maybe both). If we had kept Dunn I would hope we would have traded him by now for something of value. But that's all water under the bridge.

The good news is that we have Roco, Dario, Rose and a defensively improved allstar in KAT. We have nice talent, decent depth and good team chemistry. The two keys giving forward now are: (1) replacing Thibodeau with a better head coach, and (2) getting another elite player, wing or PG, to pair with KAT moving forward. This second key will be the most difficult unless Okogie can develop into that player. Other than Okogie, the Wolves have no one on the roster who can be that player. Rose is serving that role now and doing a very good job. But he's not the long-term answer given his age and injury history. Unless Okogie can develop into that elite wing player, the Wolves will have to do one of the following to get the player they need: (1) fleece someone in a trade for Wiggins, (2) somehow clear a ton of cap space and get an elite player to sign here as a free agent, or (3) hit the jackpot on a mid to lower first round draft pick - like a Donovan Mitchell, Tony Parker, etc. The first two are highly improbable. The third is unlikely, but probably the Wolves best shot.

My concern with Okogie is his shooting. I'd feel better about this team going forward if we had Josh Richardson instead of RoCo because Okogie would be a better fit going forward as an offensively challenged defensive stalwart next to the more offensively gifted Richardson. But I haven't given up on Okogie becoming a very good offensive player. I love his instincts and ability to get to the hole. His high-percentage free throw shooting so far in the NBA and in college, coupled with his pretty high 3-point percentage in college, give me hope.

Overall, the Wolves are fairly well positioned with enough talent for playoff contention and the potential to make a really good move that could eventually put them among the top half or better in the West.

[Duke13]

Lol, "I haven't given up on Okogie offensively". Lip cmon man. He's played limited minutes in 8 games or so.

[Lipoli390]

Lol, "I haven't given up on Okogie offensively". Lip cmon man. He's played limited minutes in 8 games or so.

Exactly, Duke. Giving up on Okogie offensively would indeed be laughable. I didn't mean to suggest that I'm at my wits end with him offensively. Is that really what you tought I meant? Lol That would be very, very silly, especially coming from me as one of the early members of the Okogie fan club. :)