Minnesota Sports Forum

thedoper wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:

WolvesFan21 wrote:8th seed means nothing. Having Butler for 2 years means nothing unless you win a Championship. If Butler leaves the trade will have been an utter failure and that is looking likely.

It seems like you are saying that the only way to judge a trade positively is if it results in a championship. If that's true, 99.5% of all trades must be deemed failures! And it presumes that we were easily on track to win a championship with LaVine and Dunn, and our 31 wins the previous year makes that a preposterous presumption. I would agree that if we had given up some very good players, and it didn't result in a significant improvement in wins, that would constitute failure. But we gave up LaVine and Dunn, two names that will never be enshrined in the Naismith Hall of Fame in Springfield...and we improved by 16 wins! It's baffling to me how that cannot be judged as successful. As I said before, even if Butler walks this franchise is much improved but this trade because 1) we swap Dunn's ineffective minutes for Tyus' productive minutes and 2) we get to spend $20 million plus on a player who is almost certain to be more effective than Zach Lavine. And if Butler stays, this deal looks even better.

I can find many, many areas to criticize the actions and style of both PBO and coach Thibodeau. This trade is not one of them though in that it almost single-handedly resulted in a 50% increase in wins, and I'm going to continue to give the much-maligned Thibs his due when deserved (it won't be often, I can assure you :)).

Got to give you lots of credit on this take LST. You've been probably the most vocal critic of Thibs on the board but as you said, the Butler deal is not the anti-Thibs hill to die on. I'm still pro-Wiggins as much as anyone here and swapping Wiggins for Lavine in the deal still would have been a win for Thibs. Butler is that good, and the salary space around Towns is that important.

I need to give props to LST also.

Solid take by LST.

monsterpile wrote:

thedoper wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:

WolvesFan21 wrote:8th seed means nothing. Having Butler for 2 years means nothing unless you win a Championship. If Butler leaves the trade will have been an utter failure and that is looking likely.

It seems like you are saying that the only way to judge a trade positively is if it results in a championship. If that's true, 99.5% of all trades must be deemed failures! And it presumes that we were easily on track to win a championship with LaVine and Dunn, and our 31 wins the previous year makes that a preposterous presumption. I would agree that if we had given up some very good players, and it didn't result in a significant improvement in wins, that would constitute failure. But we gave up LaVine and Dunn, two names that will never be enshrined in the Naismith Hall of Fame in Springfield...and we improved by 16 wins! It's baffling to me how that cannot be judged as successful. As I said before, even if Butler walks this franchise is much improved but this trade because 1) we swap Dunn's ineffective minutes for Tyus' productive minutes and 2) we get to spend $20 million plus on a player who is almost certain to be more effective than Zach Lavine. And if Butler stays, this deal looks even better.

I can find many, many areas to criticize the actions and style of both PBO and coach Thibodeau. This trade is not one of them though in that it almost single-handedly resulted in a 50% increase in wins, and I'm going to continue to give the much-maligned Thibs his due when deserved (it won't be often, I can assure you :)).

Got to give you lots of credit on this take LST. You've been probably the most vocal critic of Thibs on the board but as you said, the Butler deal is not the anti-Thibs hill to die on. I'm still pro-Wiggins as much as anyone here and swapping Wiggins for Lavine in the deal still would have been a win for Thibs. Butler is that good, and the salary space around Towns is that important.

I need to give props to LST also.

First of all, I don't think the Butler deal would be a reason for firing Thibodeau even if it turns out to be a mistake in retrospect. That deal is the least of my concerns when it comes to Thibodeau. I think the trade, at the time, was a reasonable move intended to improve the team immediately, increasing the odds of a playoff appearance last season and accelerating the team's development. Evaluating the trade in my mind doesn't turn on whether the Wolves win a championship. Obviously, winning a championship last season or this season would cement the trade as a brilliant success. But it could still turn out to be a success even if the Wolves fall short of that lofty goal.

As I see it, evaluating the trade's success turns instead on (1) how well the Wolves did last season relative to reasonable expectations, and (2) what the trade does to the longer term trajectory of the team in light of the alternatives (some combination of LaVine, Dunn, the 7th pick or other moves with those assets). I consider barely making the 8th seed last season over a team that played without one of its top two players most of the season to be a disappointment relative to reasonable expectations. From the outset, the trade risked the longer term trajectory of the team given that Butler was 28 year old with a history of missing lots of games, was 6 years older than young talent he was being paired with, and had only 2 guaranteed years left on his contract. As we look back now after one season with Butler, it does not look like Butler had a positive impact on the play of any of the younger players on the team. And in typical fashion, he missed 23 games last season (just slightly more games than his average). Meanwhile, we've all seen reports that Butler doesn't like playing with the Wolves most talented player, KAT, and that he's unhappy with the Wolves and looking to move on next summer. Those reports are troubling to say the least. If Butler does indeed leave without as a free agent next summer, leaving dissension and disappointment in his wake, then Thibodeau's reasonable short-term gamble to acquire Butler for promising younger talent and draft assets will have been a bad one in my view. Even worse if KAT is driven off by all the Butler drama.

So what would success look like? For me, it would be something like the following: (1) KAT agreeing to an extension this Fall, (2) the Wolves finishing in the top 4 this season followed by a first round series victory, (3) Butler re-signing with the Wolves next summer followed by comparable top-4 finishes and first round playoff series wins. For those things to happen, (1) Butler is going to have to patch things up with his teammates and stay healthy, (2) KAT and Wiggins will have to improve over last season (KAT defensively and Wiggins on both sides of the ball), and (3) the Wolves bench will have to be significantly better than last season, and (4) Thibodeau will have to do a better job coaching. All this is clearly possible, but I'm not optimistic right now.

When the Butler deal was done, I said it was not a deal I would have done, but I also thought and said it was a reasonable deal. It may yet turn out to be a very good deal. We'll know after this season. But I would have gone with the approach the Sixers and Celtics have taken. Their approach has been to build organically, amassing draft picks, adding young talent and being patient with that young talent. I think that's the better approach and more apt to produce sustainable success. Adding a player like Butler six years older than your young core and giving up other young promising assets to do so seems fundamentally flawed.

Butler is a damn good player, not as good as some of you think but good nonetheless. But it was simply the right deal at the wrong time. And then you factor in his divisive nature on the team and you realize he's just not a good fit here. And I'm dreading having to watch him try to win games by himself again in the 4th quarter. It rarely worked, and it further alienated his teammates. Wolves21 and Lip have it right here. We most certainly are not going to win a title with Butler. To me that's all that matters. Now I hear we are going to add Deng. The franchise couldn't be in worse shape. It's a joke.

CoolBreeze44 wrote:Butler is a damn good player, not as good as some of you think but good nonetheless. But it was simply the right deal at the wrong time. And then you factor in his divisive nature on the team and you realize he's just not a good fit here. And I'm dreading having to watch him try to win games by himself again in the 4th quarter. It rarely worked, and it further alienated his teammates. Wolves21 and Lip have it right here. We most certainly are not going to win a title with Butler. To me that's all that matters. Now I hear we are going to add Deng. The franchise couldn't be in worse shape. It's a joke.

I disagree that the time wasn't right. We were facing a decision where we would be up against the cap long term by extending Lavine. The right play was a short term solution and a bunch of short contracts which is what Thibs did. We're ready to retool if we lost Taj and Butler and have a tradeable asset in Teague. Overpaying Lavine could have been a noose around the neck of this franchise for years, instead we may have a top 15 guy for 4 more years or an opportunity to retool around KAT and Wiggins with assets who are better than Lavine. Either way we have a core that is better than what we were working with. That is the whole point of making trades.

thedoper wrote:

CoolBreeze44 wrote:Butler is a damn good player, not as good as some of you think but good nonetheless. But it was simply the right deal at the wrong time. And then you factor in his divisive nature on the team and you realize he's just not a good fit here. And I'm dreading having to watch him try to win games by himself again in the 4th quarter. It rarely worked, and it further alienated his teammates. Wolves21 and Lip have it right here. We most certainly are not going to win a title with Butler. To me that's all that matters. Now I hear we are going to add Deng. The franchise couldn't be in worse shape. It's a joke.

I disagree that the time wasn't right. We were facing a decision where we would be up against the cap long term by extending Lavine. The right play was a short term solution and a bunch of short contracts which is what Thibs did. We're ready to retool if we lost Taj and Butler and have a tradeable asset in Teague. Overpaying Lavine could have been a noose around the neck of this franchise for years, instead we may have a top 15 guy for 4 more years or an opportunity to retool around KAT and Wiggins with assets who are better than Lavine. Either way we have a core that is better than what we were working with. That is the whole point of making trades.

Doper - I think you've made the best case possible for your side of the debate. It will be interesting to see how the Wolves do with Butler this season and how well LaVine performs both this season and in seasons to come. He's still only 23 years old. We've already seen how good Donovan Mitchell is and the Wolves could have taken him with the 7th pick. Markkenan is still a work in progress but showed lots of promise in his rookie season. And it's way too early to close the book on Kris Dunn. So there are still lots of unknowns.

lipoli390 wrote:

monsterpile wrote:

thedoper wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:

WolvesFan21 wrote:8th seed means nothing. Having Butler for 2 years means nothing unless you win a Championship. If Butler leaves the trade will have been an utter failure and that is looking likely.

It seems like you are saying that the only way to judge a trade positively is if it results in a championship. If that's true, 99.5% of all trades must be deemed failures! And it presumes that we were easily on track to win a championship with LaVine and Dunn, and our 31 wins the previous year makes that a preposterous presumption. I would agree that if we had given up some very good players, and it didn't result in a significant improvement in wins, that would constitute failure. But we gave up LaVine and Dunn, two names that will never be enshrined in the Naismith Hall of Fame in Springfield...and we improved by 16 wins! It's baffling to me how that cannot be judged as successful. As I said before, even if Butler walks this franchise is much improved but this trade because 1) we swap Dunn's ineffective minutes for Tyus' productive minutes and 2) we get to spend $20 million plus on a player who is almost certain to be more effective than Zach Lavine. And if Butler stays, this deal looks even better.

I can find many, many areas to criticize the actions and style of both PBO and coach Thibodeau. This trade is not one of them though in that it almost single-handedly resulted in a 50% increase in wins, and I'm going to continue to give the much-maligned Thibs his due when deserved (it won't be often, I can assure you :)).

Got to give you lots of credit on this take LST. You've been probably the most vocal critic of Thibs on the board but as you said, the Butler deal is not the anti-Thibs hill to die on. I'm still pro-Wiggins as much as anyone here and swapping Wiggins for Lavine in the deal still would have been a win for Thibs. Butler is that good, and the salary space around Towns is that important.

I need to give props to LST also.

First of all, I don't think the Butler deal would be a reason for firing Thibodeau even if it turns out to be a mistake in retrospect. That deal is the least of my concerns when it comes to Thibodeau. I think the trade, at the time, was a reasonable move intended to improve the team immediately, increasing the odds of a playoff appearance last season and accelerating the team's development. Evaluating the trade in my mind doesn't turn on whether the Wolves win a championship. Obviously, winning a championship last season or this season would cement the trade as a brilliant success. But it could still turn out to be a success even if the Wolves fall short of that lofty goal.

As I see it, evaluating the trade's success turns instead on (1) how well the Wolves did last season relative to reasonable expectations, and (2) what the trade does to the longer term trajectory of the team in light of the alternatives (some combination of LaVine, Dunn, the 7th pick or other moves with those assets). I consider barely making the 8th seed last season over a team that played without one of its top two players most of the season to be a disappointment relative to reasonable expectations. From the outset, the trade risked the longer term trajectory of the team given that Butler was 28 year old with a history of missing lots of games, was 6 years older than young talent he was being paired with, and had only 2 guaranteed years left on his contract. As we look back now after one season with Butler, it does not look like Butler had a positive impact on the play of any of the younger players on the team. And in typical fashion, he missed 23 games last season (just slightly more games than his average). Meanwhile, we've all seen reports that Butler doesn't like playing with the Wolves most talented player, KAT, and that he's unhappy with the Wolves and looking to move on next summer. Those reports are troubling to say the least. If Butler does indeed leave without as a free agent next summer, leaving dissension and disappointment in his wake, then Thibodeau's reasonable short-term gamble to acquire Butler for promising younger talent and draft assets will have been a bad one in my view. Even worse if KAT is driven off by all the Butler drama.

So what would success look like? For me, it would be something like the following: (1) KAT agreeing to an extension this Fall, (2) the Wolves finishing in the top 4 this season followed by a first round series victory, (3) Butler re-signing with the Wolves next summer followed by comparable top-4 finishes and first round playoff series wins. For those things to happen, (1) Butler is going to have to patch things up with his teammates and stay healthy, (2) KAT and Wiggins will have to improve over last season (KAT defensively and Wiggins on both sides of the ball), and (3) the Wolves bench will have to be significantly better than last season, and (4) Thibodeau will have to do a better job coaching. All this is clearly possible, but I'm not optimistic right now.

When the Butler deal was done, I said it was not a deal I would have done, but I also thought and said it was a reasonable deal. It may yet turn out to be a very good deal. We'll know after this season. But I would have gone with the approach the Sixers and Celtics have taken. Their approach has been to build organically, amassing draft picks, adding young talent and being patient with that young talent. I think that's the better approach and more apt to produce sustainable success. Adding a player like Butler six years older than your young core and giving up other young promising assets to do so seems fundamentally flawed.

Lip this is a fair and well thought out post. A couple things came to mind as I read this.

1. Your goal for this team is to get a 4 seed or better. The Wolves were 1 win away from having that happen this past season. Ok yeah that's brought up all the time but what isn't broufhr up as much is the Nuggets were tied for 5th highest winning percentage for any team to miss the playoffs. We didn't just sneak in we beat one of the best teams record wise to get in. Plus the record we had against the West was pretty impressive.

The young guys we moved in this deal...who are they at this point? I don't think anyone can say any of those guys are sure stars. I'm not even say any of them are sure all-star players. They could be and all have some potential but there are questions about them including what most of us thought the best price was in Lavine. There are questions about all those guys it almost feels like Markkanen is the most known commodity of the bunch which feels kinda weird with him being a rookie. That's why I am staying firm on the idea that we really don't have enough knowledge right now to make a good judgement these questions ask. I think both sides absolutely have merit. I think in a few months we will likely have a more clear idea of eaxhbof these pieces and what value they have overall. There are just too many questions right now. That should make for plenty of discussion though! :)

Dunn/Lavine/Wiggins/Lauri/Towns is one of the worst defensive teams of all time. That team doesn't ever sniff the playoffs let alone a title. You should just rename the Wolves "Defense Optional" at that point. What a joke to consider the trade a failure if it doesn't result in a title. Butler is a worthy #2 guy on a contender. Towns needs to be the #1 guy. You aren't gonna do much better in terms of building a contender with the assets of Dunn, Lavine and Lauri losing value the further they get from rookie deals and onto second deals. Dunn/Lavine/Wiggins/Lauri/Towns is just Rubio/Love/Pek all over again. Not good enough to make the playoffs so you need to move on to the next rebuild. At best they challenge for an 8 seed and since actually being the 8th seed was a failure, fighting for that spot and missing year in and year out is what? Move the team to Seattle level failure? Potential is always the greener pasture than actual production. That team is garbage and the trade is a great trade regardless if Jimmy leaves.

I like what Canuck said in a different thread. Butler is all about Butler. And because I believe that to be true, how could i possibly think the trade was a good one? To me it doesn't have much to do with who we gave up, it has to do with who we got. An overrated, egotistical, divisive presence that is going to miss 25 games every year and keep us in NBA purgatory. Good enough to be playoff contenders but not good enough to be title contenders. We are now the Memphis Grizzlies. Who is going to remember anything about the Memphis teams of the last 10 years? After 30 some seasons of Wolves basketball that just isn't good enough for me. And shame on you if it's good enough for you.

CoolBreeze44 wrote:I like what Canuck said in a different thread. Butler is all about Butler. And because I believe that to be true, how could i possibly think the trade was a good one? To me it doesn't have much to do with who we gave up, it has to do with who we got. An overrated, egotistical, divisive presence that is going to miss 25 games every year and keep us in NBA purgatory. Good enough to be playoff contenders but not good enough to be title contenders. We are now the Memphis Grizzlies. Who is going to remember anything about the Memphis teams of the last 10 years? After 30 some seasons of Wolves basketball that just isn't good enough for me. And shame on you if it's good enough for you.

I think that is a fair position. It's a very Minnesota/character first position, but fair nonetheless.