Minnesota Sports Forum

i am predicting 24w .. hoping for more tho :-)

khans2k5 wrote:

Q12543 wrote:

khans2k5 wrote:

Q12543 wrote:My only issue with this is that it doesn't recognize folks that may have got it right from the beginning. It's not as much of a prediction if people are editing things as we go. You should at least note those that updated their predictions after X # of pre-season games.

Since no games have counted to date I don't get why these win totals wouldn't be fine. Why should there be a difference between picking at the start of camp and the end of camp? I get not allowing editing once the season has started, but the rotation has changed since the start of camp so I think it's perfectly reasonable for people to edit their guesses as long as the season hasn't started. Is your interest in noting the edits for people to say they knew it all along if they're right and didn't edit or for you to call people out for changing it for whatever reason? I don't get why that's necessary. Information changes. It's smart to re-evaluate and potentially adjust when new information is presented.

Well, let me ask you this: Let's say the Wolves win 30 games. If you have one person that predicts 30 wins before pre-season starts and sticks to their guns versus another person that predicted 38 wins prior to pre-season and then revises it down to 30 after 7 pre-season games, whose prediction was better?

Long's system doesn't differentiate between the two.

It's not that big of a deal, but in my thread I simply notated folks that made revisions or jumped into it late in the game. That sort of accounts for everything.

There literally isn't a difference between those predictions. They both predicted 30 and got it right. You aren't more right because you predicted it earlier and your prediction isn't better because they both are right in that scenario. You can't have a better prediction than someone who guessed the exact same number as you. When you guess doesn't matter as long as it happens before the season starts. I don't think this is a who was on the bandwagon first scenario like sticking with a drafted player you like. It's a simple right or wrong scenario.

There absolutely is a difference. One changed his prediction based on watching the team play pre-season games and the other guy got it right from the very beginning. They both accurately predicted 30-wins, but one got it right earlier. Timing matters in terms of quality of prediction in my opinion.

Now if there had been no official prediction thread until after pre-season and we were all timing our predictions at the same time, yeah, it would be a totally level playing field.

I side with Q on this one. But it's a pretty silly argument. We are all going to be wrong anyways, except I will be closest! ;-)

Yeah, I agree with Q here. The earlier prediction would be the better prediction and the reason is that there was less on-court evidence to go off of when that prediction was made.

Bah. There isn't any "predictions" being made on analysis or data IMO. It's just a bunch of guesses. There's a dozen things that could happen during the season that would render anyone's original thoughts meaningless i.e. trades, injuries, tanking. IMO as long as you get your guess in before the start of the season - it's fine....because that's all it is - a guess. I feel that 22 to 32 is the sweet spot. It looks like all the numbers are taken in that range, so I'll take the high and guess 32 aka double last year's tank total. Sam probably needs 30+ to keep his job, so that works for me.

I am tempted to bump my prediction up, but I feel no need since I am already on top.

This could be a magical season for the Wolves. Except for wins and player injuries, Flip has had an amazing run over the past few years as GM. The team he leaves us with is incredibly exciting. I assume it is the lack of seasoning that has the majority of you with such low expectations. But this team is all Flip. A big part of Flip exists in Sam. A big part of Flip exists in KG. What this team does this year will reflect a lot on what Flip was as a GM. The team could rally around Flip, with the vets focused more than ever before, and the youngsters playing well ahead of their years.

For better or worse, this will be "The Season of Flip".

60WinTim wrote:I am tempted to bump my prediction up, but I feel no need since I am already on top.

This could be a magical season for the Wolves. Except for wins and player injuries, Flip has had an amazing run over the past few years as GM. The team he leaves us with is incredibly exciting. I assume it is the lack of seasoning that has the majority of you with such low expectations. But this team is all Flip. A big part of Flip exists in Sam. A big part of Flip exists in KG. What this team does this year will reflect a lot on what Flip was as a GM. The team could rally around Flip, with the vets focused more than ever before, and the youngsters playing well ahead of their years.

For better or worse, this will be "The Season of Flip".

I hope you haven't Doug yourself a hole with your opTimism this year! One thing I know for sure...everyone here WANTS you to win this contest!

Still taking predictions until tipoff tomorrow night. Bleed, give us a real prediction to bring our average up!

Fine - Moving my prediction up to 22. I think a healthy Rubio is worth 19 wins for this team.

Q12543 wrote:My only issue with this is that it doesn't recognize folks that may have got it right from the beginning. It's not as much of a prediction if people are editing things as we go. You should at least note those that updated their predictions after X # of pre-season games.

Maybe. But no actual games that matter have been played... although there's been another, very significant development that has happened since the initial predictions that gives prognosticators a better chance at a more informed guess.

Not having Flip around for a couple of months is one thing. Not having him coach at all this season is another. Not having him around at all... in any capacity... is entirely different.

Yeah, before the Flip news, I was feeling confident the Wolves could get off to a 3-0 start. But I don't know what to think now. Emotions could be running too high. But if they still get off to a 3-0 start, watch out, NBA!