Minnesota Sports Forum

monsterpile wrote:

m4gor wrote:

monsterpile wrote:

m4gor wrote:

monsterpile wrote:

m4gor wrote:interesting fact is though that Lavine had 10.6PER at PG and allowed 19.5 PER for opponent, however at SG he had 13.3PER at SG and held opponents to nice 11.8PER, so your argument is not valid and playing Lavine anywhere else than SG is completely and utterly stupid as that is more 10 PER difference, so even 52yo guy with no stat/math background should get this one

How far did you dig into those numbers?

it is from here http://www.82games.com/1415/14MIN4.HTM
look if there would not be this huge difference i would not bring that here, i have a degree in math so i understand what sample sizes are for and what statisticaly sound difference looks like

Ok well now my expectation for you digging into those numbers with a detailed explanation has raised significantly!!! I've seen the webpage before I posted my earlier question. I am waiting :)

look at net production per 48 by position, even if you would count off whole Rubio net difference you will still be left with statistical difference

my biggest issue with Flip/Sam is that if you dont believe in math at all, you are not making your rotations well enough so you could end up with good quality data

What about the fact that Zach played a significant portion of his PG minutes as a starter?

Ah, a much more persuasive argument than my argument that defensive numbers are impacted by who you are playing with! They're impacted even more by who you are playing against. Doesn't it stand to reason that Zach's defensive numbers playing against backup SG's would be much better than his numbers playing against starting PG's?

No math analysis here. I like to watch basketball.

It is not nearly as much fun to watch basketball when Zach Lavine is playing PG.

monsterpile wrote:

What about the fact that Zach played a significant portion of his PG minutes as a starter?

Man the difference is so incredibly huge that you even cannot explain that by this, btw. eyecheck (at least mine) says the same thing, Zach is SG period .. i understand that he might be developed into combo guard of bench but it is not because he would be better defender at PG than he is at SG which this thread is all about

I would argue the current wing rotation is most ideal for developing both Wiggins and Bazz. Zach would be a drag on both of them, so screw Zach. I suppose we could just ship him to our D-league affiliate... ~

monsterpile wrote:LST lays it out here and it makes sense IF:

-Sam says defense is the most important thing

-Rebounding is a big deal

Zach most night has to be better defensively than the other backup PGs because of his length and athletic ability. Jones got lit up by everyone except one fellow rookie. Miller is crafty but doesn't have the physical gifts. How much erred defensively will Zach be as the backup PG? Idk we will see but in general it will be better overall

It would be preferable to play Zach at SG for all the reasons everyone has stated and my guess is we will see that happen a decent chink of the time because ultimately I believe in Zach and the Wolves believe in him as well. Him playing as The backup PG is likely a temporary deal. Wolves fans need to accept that there will be plenty of fluidity of the rotation this year. That makes absolute sense to me based on the roster. It's gonna be maddening for both fans and the coaching staff to make sense of it all.

If that's the case, what do you think the plan is? Do we move Martin? Do we give Wiggins more playing time at the 3? Do we end up taking the PG minutes away from Lavine so he only plays the 2?

On a related point, I think asking 19/20 year old players to learn the NBA is one thing, but to ask them to learn 2 positions is another thing that will make the development process slow and painful. In the long run, it may be beneficial, but I'm not convinced.

I would rather see us put a player in a position where they are best suited. I want them to develop confidence. I want them to learn tools that will be a permanent piece of their basketball game down the road. All the time that Lavine devotes to learning how to bring the ball up the court, run plays as a PG, etc.., is time that could be wasted if he ends up becoming a SG. It's fair to say we don't know what he'll be yet, but up until now, he looks much better suited playing SG than PG, and I'd rather see him devote his time toward being a solid SG in the league before we ask him to play backup PG. The weird thing is, unlike last year, we have other options at PG. We could easily find time for Lavine at SG (granted, it means Wiggins plays less or plays the 3 more, Martin loses time, or Prince/Shabazz lose time) but it just seems like he's getting molded into what we need at the time rather than us molding him into the best basketball player he can be.

m4gor wrote:

monsterpile wrote:

What about the fact that Zach played a significant portion of his PG minutes as a starter?

Man the difference is so incredibly huge that you even cannot explain that by this, btw. eyecheck (at least mine) says the same thing, Zach is SG period .. i understand that he might be developed into combo guard of bench but it is not because he would be better defender at PG than he is at SG which this thread is all about

Isn't the difference in PER between a starting level player and a backup pretty large? If (for the sake of conversation) Zach played a vast majority of those SG minutes against backups (I don't think we have a way to find this out for sure and might not even be the case) and held them to being below league average PER which means he held them to what they were are we supposed to give him cookies? :)

All I am saying is the stats you put forth don't seem difinitive to me. Worth noting? Absolutely. Like I said I was hoping for a bit more especially when in your posts you are ripping Mitchell for not knowing math.

fondey wrote:

monsterpile wrote:LST lays it out here and it makes sense IF:

-Sam says defense is the most important thing

-Rebounding is a big deal

Zach most night has to be better defensively than the other backup PGs because of his length and athletic ability. Jones got lit up by everyone except one fellow rookie. Miller is crafty but doesn't have the physical gifts. How much erred defensively will Zach be as the backup PG? Idk we will see but in general it will be better overall

It would be preferable to play Zach at SG for all the reasons everyone has stated and my guess is we will see that happen a decent chink of the time because ultimately I believe in Zach and the Wolves believe in him as well. Him playing as The backup PG is likely a temporary deal. Wolves fans need to accept that there will be plenty of fluidity of the rotation this year. That makes absolute sense to me based on the roster. It's gonna be maddening for both fans and the coaching staff to make sense of it all.

If that's the case, what do you think the plan is? Do we move Martin? Do we give Wiggins more playing time at the 3? Do we end up taking the PG minutes away from Lavine so he only plays the 2?

On a related point, I think asking 19/20 year old players to learn the NBA is one thing, but to ask them to learn 2 positions is another thing that will make the development process slow and painful. In the long run, it may be beneficial, but I'm not convinced.

I would rather see us put a player in a position where they are best suited. I want them to develop confidence. I want them to learn tools that will be a permanent piece of their basketball game down the road. All the time that Lavine devotes to learning how to bring the ball up the court, run plays as a PG, etc.., is time that could be wasted if he ends up becoming a SG. It's fair to say we don't know what he'll be yet, but up until now, he looks much better suited playing SG than PG, and I'd rather see him devote his time toward being a solid SG in the league before we ask him to play backup PG. The weird thing is, unlike last year, we have other options at PG. We could easily find time for Lavine at SG (granted, it means Wiggins plays less or plays the 3 more, Martin loses time, or Prince/Shabazz lose time) but it just seems like he's getting molded into what we need at the time rather than us molding him into the best basketball player he can be.

You bring up some great thought ls especially about knowing what the plan will be because we don't know how some players will develop. So to me the answer is Idk. It's nice for once to have a problem of too much legit talent at the wings after the platter of guys that were here for around 10 years. If the young perimeter players Bazz Lavine Wiggins a Tyus all work out then I don't know if you have a role for Martin. Expecting all those guys to turn out might be asking a lot. We will see.

I think everyone here even the people that can see Zach as a possible combo guard as a 6th man would prefer to see him play a majority of the minutes at SG. The question everyone is asking because this is such an unexpected move is are there any advantages for him playing PG off the bench? I can actually see a couple of positives. Don't get carried away and think I love him at PG.

-He has the ball in his hands. If he reaches his ceiling as a SG he will be handling the ball a lot. The creative SGs in the league are basically big versions of scoring PGs in a way. So Zach gets to have the ball and make some plays. We all hope he will do that when he starts and becomes an all-star caliber SG.

-He gets to play against backups. This can be key for a young guy. The difference in talent level can drop off pretty significantly between starter and backup both offensively and defensively. He may be able to do stuff more easily get cofidence etc.

I am NOT arguing that this is ideal or its some stroke of genius and yeah unless Zach has some even decent breakthrough his play at PG will hurt the offense when he plays there. The question that a lot of people really put forth is whether he can develop as a player there though. I think it's possible especially if he is allowed to just go out and play which actually might be easier for the coaches to do as a backup PG on the 2nd unit than in the first unit.

The bottom line again is that we hope Zach finds his way on both ends of the floor and finds his way into the starting lineup as a SG or becomes an option there based on matchups.

monsterpile wrote:

m4gor wrote:

monsterpile wrote:

What about the fact that Zach played a significant portion of his PG minutes as a starter?

Man the difference is so incredibly huge that you even cannot explain that by this, btw. eyecheck (at least mine) says the same thing, Zach is SG period .. i understand that he might be developed into combo guard of bench but it is not because he would be better defender at PG than he is at SG which this thread is all about

Isn't the difference in PER between a starting level player and a backup pretty large? If (for the sake of conversation) Zach played a vast majority of those SG minutes against backups (I don't think we have a way to find this out for sure and might not even be the case) and held them to being below league average PER which means he held them to what they were are we supposed to give him cookies? :)

All I am saying is the stats you put forth don't seem difinitive to me. Worth noting? Absolutely. Like I said I was hoping for a bit more especially when in your posts you are ripping Mitchell for not knowing math.

first and foremost i am just saying that LST is wrong with his assumption that Sam is starting Zach at PG because he defends PG better, because there is no evidence for that as all numbers are saying otherwise and eyecheck aswell

and yes difference is there between average starter and average bench guy, it is just that guy with his PG numbers would not even be in the league, he would actually have troubles to get meaningful contract in better european leagues either, it is active tanking at its best .. However his SG numbers are borderline NBA starter SG

Guys, Zach's ceiling is so much higher than Bazz's it's ridiculous. Lavine has star potential. Bazz is a potent scorer who is limited athletically which is a high end role player. Zach can handle the ball, he has a jump shot and he has crazy athleticism that will let him get to the rim at will off the dribble once he's comfortable. Once he gets stronger, his quickness and length give him the opportunity to be a good one on one defender. Bazz is not the guy to invest the most development time in outside of Wiggins and Towns. Lavine is that guy. Wiggins isn't a 2. He can't handle the ball well. He makes next to zero plays for his teammates. He is a 3. He needs to play 3. Bazz isn't a 2. He's a 4 in a 3's body. The highest ceiling lineup is Lavine/Wiggins, not Wiggins/Bazz. Find Lavine's interview about Flip. Flip told him before the draft the Wolves were taking him because he was going to be a homerun. That was Flip's vision. Not Wiggins/Bazz. The Wiggins/Bazz supporters are getting a little out of hand. That's the best lineup now, but it's not the best lineup moving forward.

60WinTim wrote:But what about Bazz? A fair argument can be made that Bazz/Wiggins is a more likely starting duo in the future than Zach/Wiggins. If that is true, it is more important for Bazz to get wing minutes than Zach.

I have embraced Sam's approach of allowing his two top youngsters to cut their teeth together along with vets who know how to play and can help them cut their teeth. No need to hinder their development by throwing other youngsters in the mix who may not be ready, or may take away from the focus of developing Wiggins and Towns.

Zach is forced to develop as a combo guard for now. But that's the way the pieces fall together with the priority being Wiggins and Towns. Wing minutes will come for Zach, especially when teams go smaller, like happened against the Lakers.

Some of you are projecting the young kids futures and demanding that the "projected future" be put into place now so it can develop. What if that "projected future" doesn't pan out? Prioritizing and focusing on the development of each youngster individually makes a lot more sense to me.

[Edit: Oops! I see LST has already made this argument... ]

Agree 100%. I can't see how Lavine has pushed himself ahead of Bazz at all in the depth chart. For know he just needs to work on drive and kick skills which is not out of the realm of possibility with his raw tools.