Minnesota Sports Forum

LST, Monster is right. That team from two years ago was solid defensively.

Also, they were 6-2 in games decided by 4 points or less in the second half of the season. And no, those weren't all played after we were effectively eliminated from the playoffs. The first of those wins occurred @ Golden State in January.

I still contend that our miserable start to that season in close games can be explained as much by random variability (i.e. bad luck) as it can be by things like how clutch someone is (which is a questionable trait by the way). The fact we were well over .500 in close game situations over the second half of the season suggests that reversion to the mean was happening.

While none of us were happy with 40 wins that year, it takes a 60WinTim-esque leap of faith to think this team can win that many games.

Anything over 30 wins I will be really excited about this teams future. To do that we will need to be pretty healthy. 65+ games out of Rubio, Pekovic, Wiggins, Shabazz, Martin, KG, Towns, and LaVine would be huge. Historically it just is not probable. So I am thinking mid twenties as a good jump from last year.

Bleed, I agree, mid-twenties seems like a reasonable estimate, with an upside hope of 30-ish wins.

All bets are off if one improbable scenario develops: Pek is healthy and playing in peak form for the vast majority of the season. That to me would be a massive difference maker because it would give us a top 8 Center playing significant minutes.

However, that's improbable for three reasons: 1) Pek most likely won't be healthy and is more likely to play zero games than 70+; 2) even if he can play, he will not be in peak form and his minutes will be limited; and 3) the long-term development of Towns means he'll be force-fed minutes even though he'll probably be more of a liability on the court as a rookie, especially defensively.

Thinking about it more. I would say I think a healthy Rubio and Pek over 60 games would be worth over 10 wins. It is hard to know how mucha difference Rubio alone will make since we don't have a lot of data of him not playing without Pek or Love.

monsterpile wrote:Ah we know what time of year it is..."This year's team is so much better than _______ year's team!" :). Hope springs eternal.

Yep. Good to have some consistency around here though, right?

As for that 2014 team:

The anomaly of that team (that we heard about for the first 65 or so games...) was that it was both a top 10 offensive team AND defensive team. A late season swoon dropped them to 12th in defensive efficiency. But that's a lot better than last season's #30 ranking. Heck, the Wolves have been #25 or lower in all but the 13/14 seasons since 2008.

That team was a signature front-running team with a string of 30+ leads in the first half of the season. But that also shows us how good they COULD be for stretches. Love was a top 5 NBA player. Pekovic played 30+ minutes for 54 games and averaged 18/9/54% fg.

That's a formidable frontline for the vast majority of the season. Has Rubio or Dieng gotten THAT much better? The stats wouldn't suggest such a thing when it comes to Rubio. Dieng's per 36 stats wouldn't reflect that either.

Unless we're expecting HUGE leaps from Wiggins, Towns and LaVine... I'm just not seeing how it's even close in a series format.

Abe - I think we are deep, but replacing what Love and Pek did that season will be very tough.

bleedspeed177 wrote:Abe - I think we are deep, but replacing what Love and Pek did that season will be very tough.

26 / 13 / 4 / 46%
18 / 9 / 54%

Ummmm... yeah.