These two things are simultaneously true

[Coolbreeze44]

We've had similarly structured disagreements in the past. I've spent too much time trying to explain why a complete analysis is not based solely on statistics. If I haven't made an impression on those that disagree with me yet, I don't think I can. Allow me to say this is nothing personal between myself or any of the stat geeks. I have a BS degree from Saint Cloud State University in statistical theory. I at least know a little bit of what I'm talking about. I have a problem with arguments that begin with this is black and this is white, therefore this is true. The only things in this world that are completely black and white, are black and white.

[mjs34]

Sort of. It really depends on how you measure. Based on advanced stats - yes. Based on eyeballs - no. And we all know sometimes stats don't tell the full story. We have to realize the kid was given a lot including often guarding the best player on the other team. I assume Wiggins advanced stats would have been better if he was spoon fed instead of being pushed into the water to sink or swim. Also (someone can verify - I gotta run), but I think Wiggins improved throughout the year, so while his overall advanced stats may not look great, I assume they looked better as the year went on if you looked on a month by month basis.

First off, my statement is specific to the whole of last season - it's as simple as that.

Throwing out the advanced stats, based on my eyeballs, here is where Wiggins struggled a bit:

- Rebounding. He was often out-rebounded by his matchup.

- "50/50" balls. These often squirted out of his hands or he was beaten to the punch by an opponent.

- Long-range shooting.

- Creating deflections/turnovers.

- Taking charges.

- Out-running his opponent in transition.

- Ball handling and making plays for others off of the bounce.


All of these areas can be improved upon and are correctable.

Q, there are many different factors at play that are typically glossed over. The first being that Wiggins is a better player at the end of last season than he was at the beginning. He will be better prepared for the longer season than he was last year as well.

Rebounding depends a lot on whether you consider him a SG, or a SF. Even in games when he was considered the SF based on who he was playing with he often guarded the SG because he was the opponents best scorer. A lot of those things never get factored in to stats.

He was a starter and so most of his minutes are played against starting defenses, and so his PER and WShares reflect that. While the same stats for bench guys are based against many backup players.

When you look at five Wiggins playing and you question who is going to take guys off the dribble, I answer Wiggins against the PF or C. Who will he out rebound, I answer Wiggins against the guards. Everything that you can point to as a weakness becomes a strength against a different opponent.

The fact is that Wiggins is already an above average player, and likely by more than most of us think because we all get caught up in his stats, which are averages for last season. To be more realistic, we should be looking at his second and third trimesters to get a better feel for what he can do.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I could give you average but Wiggins was not below average. Maybe he was a below average #1 option but in compared to the entire league (about 500 guys played) he was not worse than 250 of them.

OK, if we include the D-league call-ups, 10-day contract types, and 15th men on rosters that barely see the light of day, I can probably agree...Perhaps I should have narrowed my definition to regular rotation players, meaning the top 10 or so guys on most rosters. That's kind of what I had in mind.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Sort of. It really depends on how you measure. Based on advanced stats - yes. Based on eyeballs - no. And we all know sometimes stats don't tell the full story. We have to realize the kid was given a lot including often guarding the best player on the other team. I assume Wiggins advanced stats would have been better if he was spoon fed instead of being pushed into the water to sink or swim. Also (someone can verify - I gotta run), but I think Wiggins improved throughout the year, so while his overall advanced stats may not look great, I assume they looked better as the year went on if you looked on a month by month basis.

First off, my statement is specific to the whole of last season - it's as simple as that.

Throwing out the advanced stats, based on my eyeballs, here is where Wiggins struggled a bit:

- Rebounding. He was often out-rebounded by his matchup.

- "50/50" balls. These often squirted out of his hands or he was beaten to the punch by an opponent.

- Long-range shooting.

- Creating deflections/turnovers.

- Taking charges.

- Out-running his opponent in transition.

- Ball handling and making plays for others off of the bounce.


All of these areas can be improved upon and are correctable.

Q, there are many different factors at play that are typically glossed over. The first being that Wiggins is a better player at the end of last season than he was at the beginning. He will be better prepared for the longer season than he was last year as well.

Rebounding depends a lot on whether you consider him a SG, or a SF. Even in games when he was considered the SF based on who he was playing with he often guarded the SG because he was the opponents best scorer. A lot of those things never get factored in to stats.

He was a starter and so most of his minutes are played against starting defenses, and so his PER and WShares reflect that. While the same stats for bench guys are based against many backup players.

When you look at five Wiggins playing and you question who is going to take guys off the dribble, I answer Wiggins against the PF or C. Who will he out rebound, I answer Wiggins against the guards. Everything that you can point to as a weakness becomes a strength against a different opponent.

The fact is that Wiggins is already an above average player, and likely by more than most of us think because we all get caught up in his stats, which are averages for last season. To be more realistic, we should be looking at his second and third trimesters to get a better feel for what he can do.

All good points. I'm basing it on the totality of last season, not some subset of it. It's as simple as that.

[AbeVigodaLive]

We've had similarly structured disagreements in the past. I've spent too much time trying to explain why a complete analysis is not based solely on statistics. If I haven't made an impression on those that disagree with me yet, I don't think I can. Allow me to say this is nothing personal between myself or any of the stat geeks. I have a BS degree from Saint Cloud State University in statistical theory. I at least know a little bit of what I'm talking about. I have a problem with arguments that begin with this is black and this is white, therefore this is true. The only things in this world that are completely black and white, are black and white.

I don't think there are many posts I make (non Rashad McCants related) where I don't have a disclaimer or caveat or something mixed in there to stay away from "black or white declarations." It's arguably a flaw in how I discuss things here... not really taking as definitive of a stance as I'd like.

Yet, we still argue a lot.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Sort of. It really depends on how you measure. Based on advanced stats - yes. Based on eyeballs - no. And we all know sometimes stats don't tell the full story. We have to realize the kid was given a lot including often guarding the best player on the other team. I assume Wiggins advanced stats would have been better if he was spoon fed instead of being pushed into the water to sink or swim. Also (someone can verify - I gotta run), but I think Wiggins improved throughout the year, so while his overall advanced stats may not look great, I assume they looked better as the year went on if you looked on a month by month basis.

First off, my statement is specific to the whole of last season - it's as simple as that.

Throwing out the advanced stats, based on my eyeballs, here is where Wiggins struggled a bit:

- Rebounding. He was often out-rebounded by his matchup.

- "50/50" balls. These often squirted out of his hands or he was beaten to the punch by an opponent.

- Long-range shooting.

- Creating deflections/turnovers.

- Taking charges.

- Out-running his opponent in transition.

- Ball handling and making plays for others off of the bounce.


All of these areas can be improved upon and are correctable.

Q, there are many different factors at play that are typically glossed over. The first being that Wiggins is a better player at the end of last season than he was at the beginning. He will be better prepared for the longer season than he was last year as well.

Rebounding depends a lot on whether you consider him a SG, or a SF. Even in games when he was considered the SF based on who he was playing with he often guarded the SG because he was the opponents best scorer. A lot of those things never get factored in to stats.

He was a starter and so most of his minutes are played against starting defenses, and so his PER and WShares reflect that. While the same stats for bench guys are based against many backup players.

When you look at five Wiggins playing and you question who is going to take guys off the dribble, I answer Wiggins against the PF or C. Who will he out rebound, I answer Wiggins against the guards. Everything that you can point to as a weakness becomes a strength against a different opponent.

The fact is that Wiggins is already an above average player, and likely by more than most of us think because we all get caught up in his stats, which are averages for last season. To be more realistic, we should be looking at his second and third trimesters to get a better feel for what he can do.

All good points. I'm basing it on the totality of last season, not some subset of it. It's as simple as that.

Every other starter in the league plays against other starters too. They don't need excuses for lower PER and WinShares.

As a possible franchise-changing player, hopefully, we can take off the kid gloves when discussing Wiggins as soon as this season.

[thedoper]

As a possible franchise-changing player, hopefully, we can take off the kid gloves when discussing Wiggins as soon as this season.

Agree Abe. I think there should be improvements since we have seen a rookie season now. I think the tangible areas of improvement that Q lists are pretty close to the sentiments echoed about Wiggins game on this board.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I am on board with Q's two true statements, and I would add a third:

3) Andrew Wiggins exceeded my expectations for his rookie year.

Andrew had a tremendous rookie season and showed that he has the potential to be a top 5 player...that is very exciting. But rookies almost always need time to adjust to the NBA, and very seldom make positive contributions to their teams. Hence, Q's statements are certainly true, and I don't it all that surprising.

Any argument that Wiggins performed like an above average player last year would be a stretch. Here are Hollinger's rankings for small forwards:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/position/sf

Wiggins ranks 28th in PER out of 72 small forwards. A literal interpretation would be "So 28 is in the top half of small forwards, so therefore he is above average". But I think that is a stretch. Almost all of the guys ranking lower than Wiggins are career reserves and didn't play many minutes. A quick look at the list will tell you that Wiggins had one of the lowest PERs of any starting small forward in the league, and to me, that defines a below average player.

And that is why I am so excited about the Wolves' chances this year. Does anyone not think that Wiggins will significantly improve on his 13.97 PER this coming season? We saw him improve as the season progressed, and we will see even a bigger jump in efficiency this year as he continues up his steep learning curve. Having Rubio on the court more will lead to even higher scoring efficiency. And I expect LaVine, Muhammad, Dieng, Payne and Bennett to show similar improvement. Because he's a rookie, I don't expect a great season from KAT...but I expect him to generate the same excitement and show the same potential Wiggins and LaVine did last year.

[TAFKASP]

Wiggy was terribly great!

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

We've had similarly structured disagreements in the past. I've spent too much time trying to explain why a complete analysis is not based solely on statistics. If I haven't made an impression on those that disagree with me yet, I don't think I can. Allow me to say this is nothing personal between myself or any of the stat geeks. I have a BS degree from Saint Cloud State University in statistical theory. I at least know a little bit of what I'm talking about. I have a problem with arguments that begin with this is black and this is white, therefore this is true. The only things in this world that are completely black and white, are black and white.

Where in my argument did I begin with stats as the sole basis for my conclusion?