Re: Thought on the Jimmy Butler trade rumors
Posted: Wed Jun 29, 2016 2:39 pm
Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make. I think Thibs and Scott should be thankful they didn't end up getting a deal done for Butler. It would have meant giving up Dunn and either Ricky or Zach. Giving up either of those two, in addition to Dunn, would have been problematic for different reasons. And at the end of the day, I just don't think Butler is the right fit for this team under and realistic trade scenario. If we trade for Butler, we're acquiring him to become one of our core two or three elite players. That doesn't make sense to me for reasons I and others have given in prior posts. I'll sum them up as follows:
1. Butler's age relative to the other core players. Butler will be 27 years old when the season starts, meaning he's 6.5 years older than any of the remaining core young guys he'd be playing with. That's too big a gap between their respective player trajectories -- Butler possibly declining just as our two other core player begin entering their prime.
2. Butler's injury history. Missing 20+% of their games in 4 of his 5 seasons is a huge red flag. As good as Butler is, you're only as good as your ability to stay on the floor. Butler has that classic pattern of an injury plagued player who has an assortment of different ailments that come up in different seasons and prevent him from playing. At age 27, it's unlikely he'll get more resilient. To the contrary, it's likely to be the other way around.
3. Butler not the best fit. If we were to acquire Butler, it's likely we would have to deal Dunn and either Zach or Ricky. If it's Zach and Dunn, the Butler acquisition would substantially diminish our already inadequate 3-point shooting. If it's Ricky and Dunn, we would have have no starting caliber PG. That's unacceptable and there's no certainty we could acquire one in free agency.
So I'm happy with whether we're at. We were a nearly .500 team after the allstar break last season, so I don't see us starting the upcoming season as a 29-win team. Unfortunately, it took that long for the front office to get rid of Kevin Martin and for Sam Mitchell to put Zach in the starting lineup at his natural SG position. Now we go from Mitchell to Thibs, add Dunn and pick up a couple of quality free agents. That's all in addition to the inevitable improvement of our core young guys -- Zach, Wiggins, KAT and Gorgui. Assuming reasonable health, I see a playoff team at Target Center this season unless our front office does something short-sighted and imprudent.
1. Butler's age relative to the other core players. Butler will be 27 years old when the season starts, meaning he's 6.5 years older than any of the remaining core young guys he'd be playing with. That's too big a gap between their respective player trajectories -- Butler possibly declining just as our two other core player begin entering their prime.
2. Butler's injury history. Missing 20+% of their games in 4 of his 5 seasons is a huge red flag. As good as Butler is, you're only as good as your ability to stay on the floor. Butler has that classic pattern of an injury plagued player who has an assortment of different ailments that come up in different seasons and prevent him from playing. At age 27, it's unlikely he'll get more resilient. To the contrary, it's likely to be the other way around.
3. Butler not the best fit. If we were to acquire Butler, it's likely we would have to deal Dunn and either Zach or Ricky. If it's Zach and Dunn, the Butler acquisition would substantially diminish our already inadequate 3-point shooting. If it's Ricky and Dunn, we would have have no starting caliber PG. That's unacceptable and there's no certainty we could acquire one in free agency.
So I'm happy with whether we're at. We were a nearly .500 team after the allstar break last season, so I don't see us starting the upcoming season as a 29-win team. Unfortunately, it took that long for the front office to get rid of Kevin Martin and for Sam Mitchell to put Zach in the starting lineup at his natural SG position. Now we go from Mitchell to Thibs, add Dunn and pick up a couple of quality free agents. That's all in addition to the inevitable improvement of our core young guys -- Zach, Wiggins, KAT and Gorgui. Assuming reasonable health, I see a playoff team at Target Center this season unless our front office does something short-sighted and imprudent.