Vegas Over/Under

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Some of this post will echo Cool's thoughts on what our expectations should be this year, but this is my take.

1) The 2014-5 Wolves relied on team leaders who were the youngest in the league, and accordingly displayed great improvement throughout the year.

2) This improvement resulted in the young Wolves playing .500 basketball over the final 1/4 of the season, including impressive late season wins at OkC and Golden State.

3) History shows that 2nd, 3rd and 4th year players continue to show great improvement in the early stages of their careers...and sometimes dramatic improvement.

4) Given these three factors, it's logical to assume that a Sam Mitchell-coached team would have improved on their .500 pace (i.e. better than 41 wins this year) that they set at the end of last season...even without adding key players.

5) And yet they have added some key veterans with a winning pedigree in Rush, Aldrich and Hill...as well as a promising rookie in Dunn who seems more ready to contribute at a mature 22 years old than a typical rookie.

6) And they have added a head coach with a reputation for working his teams hard with the goal of maximizing regular season wins...an average of 51 wins per season in his 5 seasons as a head coach.

So considering all these factors, it baffles me that many posters seem to be satisfied with the Wolves merely continuing the .500 pace they were playing at toward the end of last season. That seems to give no credit at all to the expected development of our young players, the added depth provided by some solid veterans, and the coaching superiority of Thibs. Shouldn't these 3 factors add up to at least another 10 wins over last year's end-of-year pace?

Yes, I am setting high expectations for Thibs, but I think we all should. He has fallen into a dream coaching situation with some budding superstars that most pundits expect to show huge improvement this year. I agree that there may be some struggles in the early going as his players get used to his systems (just like last year's team didn't play as well the first half of the season), but our expectations still need to be better than the pace Sam set at the end of last year. Barring key injuries to guys like KAT, I will see 41 wins as a failure. Sam improved the team by 13 wins last year over Flip...Thibs needs to at least match that year over year improvement.

LST, I think the potential is certainly there to have a major breakout year, but I always tend to look at most likely scenario vs. the most hoped-for scenario. There are people who do this shit for a living in Vegas; they know that they have to factor in things like injury odds and how the rest of the Western Conference is shaping up.

A 10-15 game improvement by the Wolves is a very nice step forward. If we have incredibly good health of our key guys (especially KAT, Rubio, and Wiggins), then I think 45-50 wins is a reasonable wins estimate. But that is not the most likely scenario, even though it might be the most hoped-for scenario!

[Lipoli390]

At 41.5 I'd definitely bet the over. The Vegas odds makers are really good, but keep in mind they're setting odds and spreads based on betting expectations not just a cold assessment of each team's capabilities. The Wolves are not a sexy franchise and have been down for a long time so they tend to be undervalued.

We were around .500 after the all-star break last season. And that didn't seem like a late season fluke since we beat a lot of really good teams that were also highly motivated at the time fighting for playoff positions or, in Golden State's case, trying to set a new win record. So I see last season's team as a .500 team before (1) the inevitable off-season improvement of our talented young core players from last season, (2) the addition of quality new guys like Aldrich, Rush, Jordan Hill and Chris Dunn, and (3) the step up from a mediocre head coach at best to a guy widely regarded as one of the best.

If we have the same sort of good injury fortune we had last season, I see us getting 50-52 wins. If we don't fair quite as well but don't have any devastating injuries, then I see us ending up with 45 wins. So my bottom line conservative prediction is 45 wins. I think we'll finish ahead of the Rockets and Grizzlies.

[Mstermisty [enjin:6864008]]

If I was betting the easy choice would be the over. But win total is meaningless this season, it all comes down to making the playoffs. If they win 45 and don't make the playoffs it will be a disappointment for me. This insane playoff drought needs to end, and these guys need to get some playoff experience under their belt as a first step. Playoffs or bust.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Q, I also am trying to forecast the most likely scenario, and while I fully acknowledge that I have been far too optimistic the past 3-4 years (pretty accurate before that though), 41 wins seems far too pessimistic to me. I hear the injury argument...that we were abnormally healthy last year and can't expect to replicate that...but I think that argument is inaccurate. The Wolves ranked in the middle of the league last year in man games lost, and one of the players that contributed most of those lost games (Garnett) was our most effective player using a +/- metric. We have a young team, and young players historically don't break down as frequently as older players like KG and Pek. I think it's logical to predict that we will actually improve on our games lost stat from last year and finish in the top quarter of the league for health.

So, getting back to the most likely scenario. In the post above, Lip lays out the 3 key factors that should lead to more wins this year (natural improvement of our young stars, addition of key vets for depth, and Thibs). Since this team was a .500 team the last quarter of the season, is the most likely scenario that these three factors don't even lead to one more stinking win this season????

I don't think so.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Mmmm, LST and Lip are making some good points here, On the health front, the good news is that we are going into camp and 100% healthy, with no one laboring to come back from injury (think Rubio in the past).

OK, you guys got me. I'm going to be really bold here and predict the over at 42 wins :) .

[Porckchop]

The Wolves haven't met expectations that this board has set for them ever.. I think expecting a 25 win swing is a bit homeristic and an end of the rainbow outcome for us. It would rank as an all time turn around which makes it hard to see from my perspective. Yes they played well the last 20 games but you can't just dismiss the the other 60 games. Have they improved the 3 pt shooting by adding a guy that will probably play 10 -12 Minutes? Defensively have they improved simply becuz they added a guy that will nervously pace the sideline? Players have to buy in and have the tools to implement his game plan , we don't know that as truth yet.
Only a handful of players ever take their game to the next level every year and we are needing 3 guys to do it.
It's gonna be a fun year and I can't wait for it to start but I'll be tempering my expectations until a few games are in the books.

[Lipoli390]

I believe the Thunder went from 23 wins to 50 in Westbrook's second season. So it wouldn't be unprecedented. I wouldn't totally ignore the previous 60 games. But I'd give more weight to the last 20 given the team's youth, which suggests a natural upward trajectory. Bottom line for me is that the Wolves did not end last season as a 27-win team. Assuming they weren't really a .500 caliber team, I'd say that by the end of the season the Wolves were at least that of a 35-win caliber team.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Mmmm, LST and Lip are making some good points here, On the health front, the good news is that we are going into camp and 100% healthy, with no one laboring to come back from injury (think Rubio in the past).

OK, you guys got me. I'm going to be really bold here and predict the over at 42 wins :) .

Ok, now that I have struggled back to my chair after passing out, I have to acknowledge the truest sign of optimism this board has ever seen...Q taking the over bet! The only thing more remarkable would be me taking the under...

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Fair post from porkchop above, but then Lip took the words right out of my mouth. I can't disagree with pork's take that a jump in wins like some of us are forecasting would be quite unusual and almost historic, and also that this board errs on the optimistic side far more often than the pessimistic side. The prudent take would be to temper our enthusiasm.

But I see this team more poised to make a huge jump than even that OkC team we have talked about often. They were a young team with two potential superstars coming off a terrible season, and they increased their wins in the same dramatic fashion some of us predicting for the Wolves. The Wolves have three potential superstars entering their 2nd or 3rd years, a key player (Belly) entering his second year, and a new coach who has averaged more than 50 wins a year throughout his head coaching career. While I'm not saying KAT/Wig/Zach will end up like Durant/Russ, it's easy to make a compelling case for the Wolves being more poised for a jump than that OkC team.

I agree with Pork that we can't completely ignore the first 60 games of last season, but on the other hand, we all know that adapting to the NBA game is a difficult process. Almost all rookies flounder at the start. But when the light bulb turns on, the level of play improves exponentially. Even more than our young Big 3, I would point to Belly as an example of how difficult the adjustment can be. Many of us followed him in Europe, and recognized what a brilliant versatile player he was. And yet he looked lost during the first half of his rookie year. He looked tentative on offense and defensively struggled with learning the difference between European and American refereeing. But during the Wolves strong .500 finish, he looked much more like the superstar he was in Europe...hitting open threes at nearly a 50% pace, putting the ball on the floor and facilitating well, and even learning how to keep his fouls down (although there is still room for improvement here). Thibs has already gushed (for him) about how much he likes Belly's game. Isn't it far more likely that we see the March Belly than the November one? And if we also see the March version of our Big 3 and Thibs can work the defensive magic he supplied in Chicago, 50 wins is not at all out of reach.

[Monster]

People go on and on about the additions to this team (including me) but what about the subtractions? KG played 38 games and when he played he was effective. Andre Miller was plenty effective when he played and if it was about winning he probably should have played more. Prince was a flawed but effective player. Now you can make an argument for Martin and Pek being addition my subtraction but Is everyone on this roster going to be easily above replacement level this year? We don't have to include Payne we all expect him to suck if he is on the roster. lol anywho keep up the optimism but I thought a couple vets from last year deserved a bit of Iove.