Minnesota Sports Forum

Big O wrote:I didn't add up all of your numbers but what is the maximum the wolves would be looking at for luxury tax if they sign Durant and Wigs, Towns, Lavine and Rubio all become max studs?

Part of the equation also needs to be what happens to the value of the team if the the above scenario happens, in which case they are looking at multiple titles. Right now the wolves are the 4th least valuable team at about $720M. if winning titles at least moves the team to the median the team would be worth 40% more...

longstrangetrip wrote:As Lip laid out in his salary cap management thread, the Wolves current payroll for 11 players (including KG and the Martin buyout residual) is $62.5 million. They also have an option on Rudez at $1.2 million, which I'm going to assume they exercise for cap management purposes. Let's also assume they keep pick #5, and the salary hold for a 5th pick increases to $4 million. They are now at $67.7 million for 13 players, resulting in $24.3 million in cap space...not enough to offer Durant (or any other 7-9 year player) a max contract. What they would have to do then is either hope that KG opts out, or convince KG to defer opting in until after they have signed Durant and another free agent (let's say a backup PG for $3 million). After all this is done, they will have 15 players signed for $98.3 million, over the salary cap but well under the luxury tax threshold.

With the cap jumping up in 2017-18 and KG and other smaller contracts going away, the Wolves have some room to make some targeted free agent acquisitions...nothing close to a max, of course, but perhaps a couple vets that can fill some needs. Although cap room will be limited by the need to pay Gorgui.

2018-9 is where things get tough from a salary cap standpoint, even with the Pek contract going away, because the rookie contracts for both Wig and Zach expire, and they could be looking for big contracts. In addition Belly's value deal of $4 million per year will be over. I'm assuming that Bazz and Belly will be gone (just no way to fit their likely contracts in). If we assume a max contract for Wig, I estimate that our payroll will be $100 million for these 7 players...Durant, Wig, Rubio, KAT (still a bargain at $8 million), Gorgui, Tyus ($2 million) and this year's #5. Since we still have to pay 8 other players, it's clear that there will be no room for Zach without paying the luxury tax. In fact it will be a challenge to find 8 serviceable players that will only cost us a total of $23 million, but I think the team will be good enough that some ring-chasing vets will be happy to play here at a discount. (Note...if Zach continues to improve at the pace he has the past year, we may determine that a wing tandem of Durant/Zach is preferable to Durant/Wig, and Wig becomes the player we choose to let go).

2019-20 is where things really get sticky, because we expect that KAT will command a max contract and Ricky will be up for a new contract too. I've gone through all sorts of different scenarios, but I can't find any logical way to keep both KAT at a max and Ricky without going over the lux threshold, unless Ricky is loving winning so much and is feeling sufficiently wealthy to give us a Duncan-like home team discount...not entirely beyond the realm of possibility, but probably not likely.

So my conclusion is that while we can afford to give Durant a max contract this summer, it will probably mean that we will have to let either Zach or Wig go in 2018-9 and most likely let Ricky go in 2019-20. Even if we don't sign Durant, it's pretty clear to me that there will not be room to keep all 4 of our potential stars (KAT, Wig, Zach and Ricky...assuming they all become what we think they will become) unless we choose to go with bargain basement players for the rest of the 11 players on the roster...especially if our pick #5 pans out.

My position is that as intriguing as adding a Durant this summer is, it presents too many issues down the road...I could be convinced otherwise, but I think I would pass.

Hicks123 wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:As Lip laid out in his salary cap management thread, the Wolves current payroll for 11 players (including KG and the Martin buyout residual) is $62.5 million. They also have an option on Rudez at $1.2 million, which I'm going to assume they exercise for cap management purposes. Let's also assume they keep pick #5, and the salary hold for a 5th pick increases to $4 million. They are now at $67.7 million for 13 players, resulting in $24.3 million in cap space...not enough to offer Durant (or any other 7-9 year player) a max contract. What they would have to do then is either hope that KG opts out, or convince KG to defer opting in until after they have signed Durant and another free agent (let's say a backup PG for $3 million). After all this is done, they will have 15 players signed for $98.3 million, over the salary cap but well under the luxury tax threshold.

With the cap jumping up in 2017-18 and KG and other smaller contracts going away, the Wolves have some room to make some targeted free agent acquisitions...nothing close to a max, of course, but perhaps a couple vets that can fill some needs. Although cap room will be limited by the need to pay Gorgui.

2018-9 is where things get tough from a salary cap standpoint, even with the Pek contract going away, because the rookie contracts for both Wig and Zach expire, and they could be looking for big contracts. In addition Belly's value deal of $4 million per year will be over. I'm assuming that Bazz and Belly will be gone (just no way to fit their likely contracts in). If we assume a max contract for Wig, I estimate that our payroll will be $100 million for these 7 players...Durant, Wig, Rubio, KAT (still a bargain at $8 million), Gorgui, Tyus ($2 million) and this year's #5. Since we still have to pay 8 other players, it's clear that there will be no room for Zach without paying the luxury tax. In fact it will be a challenge to find 8 serviceable players that will only cost us a total of $23 million, but I think the team will be good enough that some ring-chasing vets will be happy to play here at a discount. (Note...if Zach continues to improve at the pace he has the past year, we may determine that a wing tandem of Durant/Zach is preferable to Durant/Wig, and Wig becomes the player we choose to let go).

2019-20 is where things really get sticky, because we expect that KAT will command a max contract and Ricky will be up for a new contract too. I've gone through all sorts of different scenarios, but I can't find any logical way to keep both KAT at a max and Ricky without going over the lux threshold, unless Ricky is loving winning so much and is feeling sufficiently wealthy to give us a Duncan-like home team discount...not entirely beyond the realm of possibility, but probably not likely.

So my conclusion is that while we can afford to give Durant a max contract this summer, it will probably mean that we will have to let either Zach or Wig go in 2018-9 and most likely let Ricky go in 2019-20. Even if we don't sign Durant, it's pretty clear to me that there will not be room to keep all 4 of our potential stars (KAT, Wig, Zach and Ricky...assuming they all become what we think they will become) unless we choose to go with bargain basement players for the rest of the 11 players on the roster...especially if our pick #5 pans out.

My position is that as intriguing as adding a Durant this summer is, it presents too many issues down the road...I could be convinced otherwise, but I think I would pass.

Come on LST....is this a serious post? You are "potentially" not going to sign KD to a max deal because you may or may not lose out on Wiggins, Rubio or Lavine in 3-4 years? Really? Even if those guys hit their ceiling, they aren't Durant. Has it really come to this? We aren't even willing to offer a max deal to one of the top 4-5 players in the entire world because we want to be sure to be able to sign lesser players in the extended future?

Look, I like Wiggins and Lavine as much as the next guy....but this is crazy. There is no situation we could have that would make me even hesitate to sign KD for whatever we can. OKC went through this and had to let Harden walk. Your worrisome scenario is quite the same. And in the end, OKC has been just fine. They are unlucky in having to play in a brutally challenging Western Conference. Doesn't take away the fact that they have been an awesome team year after year, despite having to make some challenging roster moves.

Again...crazy talk:)