Early Season evaluation: Andrew Wiggins

[AbeVigodaLive]

I agree with the analysis of Wiggins strengths and faults and disagree with the conclusions about his potential completely. His potential is still through the roof because of his athleticism. His stroke is sweet, which is a great foundation for superstardom. The weaknesses he is showing right now were all totally apparent before he was drafted. But he was touted as the number 1 pick because of potential. He is going to be great.

There are very very few certainties in the NBA. Especially the ones who don't excel immediately.

NBA history tells us so.

Isn't your certainty that the Wolves will trend to horrible? :) I think he has excelled. If I had said the rookie that we draft this year will be a 19 year old that competes for the rookie lead in ppg everyone would have signed up immediately. People are frustrated because of their expectations of a number #1 pick. He is contributing as a top rookie in a deep draft class after 20 games.

The Wolves most recent failure as a franchise was that it was a sub .500 club with Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio and a very healthy roster surrounding them. That's the best season of the past decade.

Yes. The Wolves are the worst organization in the NBA since 2004, and it's not remotely close to any other team. And the 2nd worst existing franchise in the NBA this side of the atrocity Donald Sterling put together in LA. So, the Wolves traded Kevin Love but landed the #1 pick in the draft as a consolation prize. So, the fanbase was willing to rebuild yet again even thought the current regime did nothing to earn that patience... but only because we knew Andrew Wiggins was on his way. This time it was different. We have a legit talent. Not Derrick Williams. Not Wes Johnson. Not Randy Foye. Jonny Flynn. Et al.

Past rookies would average 12 ppg and be comparable to other rookies in his class. And to be honest, those are loser expectations. Why not hope for more from a #1 pick in the draft? It's not wrong to want MORE from a player or an organization. It's not unprecedented for a rookie to show those glimpses of a superstar immediately... even when they're raw talents.

Kyrie Irving. Anthony Davis. John Wall. Derrick Rose. Blake Griffin. Dwight Howard. LeBron James.

With each, you knew right away whether they were legit or not. Other #1 picks we heard that we needed to be patient. Anthony Bennett. Andrea Bargnani. Greg Oden. Andrew Bogut. Kwame Brown.

Now, I'm not ready to put Wiggins in the second camp. Not at all. I think he'll be better than all those guys (even though Bogut is a difference maker when healthy on defense) But I haven't seen anything from Wiggins yet to put him in the first camp either. I'm more than willing to give Wiggins MULTIPLE SEASONS to see if he's legit or not.

But to say I see anything from him other than athleticism (which hasn't proven to be a definitive precursor for on-court success in the past) to suggest he's a definite superstar... or even star player.... nope. Not yet.

[Coolbreeze44]

This kid is guarding the Kobe's, Wades, and Harden's on a near nightly basis. And he is holding up very well in doing so. That alone should give you reason to see star potential. When he's not dragging those guys up and down the court he is the highest scoring rookie in the league. He's had game taking over type spurts in some games. Maybe he isn't going to be Lebron or Kobe or MJ, but c'mon already. His ceiling is at least as high as Scottie Pippens was. I'll take a topo 50 player of all time any day.

[AbeVigodaLive]

This kid is guarding the Kobe's, Wades, and Harden's on a near nightly basis. And he is holding up very well in doing so. That alone should give you reason to see star potential. When he's not dragging those guys up and down the court he is the highest scoring rookie in the league. He's had game taking over type spurts in some games. Maybe he isn't going to be Lebron or Kobe or MJ, but c'mon already. His ceiling is at least as high as Scottie Pippens was. I'll take a topo 50 player of all time any day.

If he turns into Scottie Pippen... we'll all be singing zippity-doo-dah out of our assholes.

I don't see him as that type of defender. Nor, that versatile of a player. But I do think he has legit potential defensively, even if it's obscured a bit right now playing for one of the 3 worst defensive teams in the league.

And I really liked how effortlessly it looked like he scored vs. Portland last week. That was a great game to see him take over for a spell in the 4th quarter. IF he can learn to dribble and IF he continues to improve on a sweet stroke, we're on to something with him as a scorer.


[Note: By the way, what an underwhelming draft class thus far. We were told for years how "great" it was. Yet, Parker, Wiggins and McDaniels (and gasp! LaVine) are the only ones who are set fixtures in a rotation at this point, right? Even Shabazz Napier was sent to the D League recently. With a franchise in flux... or freefall... would you want your prized rookie to be compared to these stiffs ... or legit talents who helped carry their teams out of the abyss?]

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

It's too early to conclude anything about Andrew Wiggins. But after a full summer league, pre-season, and 20+ games of the regular season, we've seen enough to make observations about his progress to date. He's also played the most minutes of any Timberwolf, so he has had plenty of opportunities to experience the full "feedback cycle" of learning on the job, as opposed to some rookies who only play in fits and starts.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

After reading all of the posts in this thread, a lot of you just flat out had the wrong expectations for what Wiggins was going to do his first year in the league as a 19 year. You compare him to guys like AD, Wall, Irving, Griffin, Rose and yet they all play positions that are easy to affect the box score compared to Wiggins. PG's have the ball in their hands a majority of the time so they grew up as the primary ball handlers of their teams. They combined that life long responsibility that led to very good ball handling skills with elite athleticism to be able to get to the rim at will making them above average players out of the gate (Wall and Rose couldn't shoot at all out of college outside of the paint). PF's get to rebound and shoot the ball within 15 ft. They have no ball handling responsibilities and don't have to be able to shoot from very far away from the basket nor defend very far away from the basket. They get to affect the box score just because they have a size advantage that just requires effort to put up rebounding and scoring numbers (in Blake's case just use their athletic ability to dunk a ridiculous amount of times for their scoring numbers). The 3 is the hardest position to play in the league because it requires the most versatility of any other position. It requires the most specific physical makeup and athleticism (have to be tall enough while being quick enough) on top of ball handling, shooting from 2 and 3, rebounding, passing and the ability to defend on the perimeter and in the post. That is why the two guys considered the best players in the league are 3's and not PG's or bigs. They are the best overall players in the game because of how many skills SF's have to be good at to be effective overall.

Wiggins' best skill is his man defense. That skill has the least amount of visibility on a box score possible. The closest measurements are steals and blocks and neither of those actually correlate to whether someone is a good defender or not. There hasn't been another SF taken as the number 1 pick in the last decade. Even the top 3 picks has only netted the guys below. It's a tough position to be good at, let alone be good by 19.

Porter
MKG
Beasley
Durant
Adam Morrison
Marvin Williams

I think he's already shown flashes of superstar play and specifically some of his 20 point games listed below have shown that when he is scoring, his contributions in other areas also tend to go up as well.

P-R-A-S
23-10-4-2
21-6-4
29-5-2-4
20-5-1

I think he is probably the most raw #1 pick overall in at least the last decade, while playing the toughest position in the league and that means he's not going to be setting the world on fire out of the gate. If he becomes good though, it will mean that much more to the success of our franchise because of the impact the best players at that position have on their team's success. I think he is going to get much more effective in all areas of his game simply by filling out his frame, let alone when given an offseason or two to develop those skills as well.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Not a fan of excuses based on position. Not to mention you can argue that SG and SF are interchangeable in today's NBA. Doesn't excuse anything I've said in previous posts.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Not a fan of excuses based on position. Not to mention you can argue that SG and SF are interchangeable in today's NBA. Doesn't excuse anything I've said in previous posts.

Because the SG position is just stacked with great players also...oh wait...that's the most shallow position in the league in terms of top end talent. It's naïve to think a position that doesn't typically involve a ton of ball handling, nor involves players large enough to outrebound everybody is not at a disadvantage versus the other positions statistically. They never lead the league in assists, rebounds, steals nor blocks for a reason, yet they have to put up numbers in every category to be considered good. Be pessimistic all you want because you want Parker to be better to make you right. I'm not going to keep putting the kid down for flaws in his game when he is 19 years old and 23 games into his career especially because he plays a tougher position whether you want to admit it or not. Accepting no excuses for a player 23 games into their career is the dumbest thought process I can think anyone would have. You thought Jabari was going to be great out of the gate. How is that working? The answer is almost the exact same, yet I have a feeling you wouldn't be nearly this critical if we had ended up with Parker than Wiggins.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

"Be pessimistic all you want because you want Parker to be better to make you right."

Lol wait, what? Listen to how ridiculous you sound. I root for the Timberwolves and every player that wears their jersey. That includes rooting for Wiggins to reach his full potential. Certain aspects of Parker's game, though, are just way better than Wiggins. I stood by that pre-draft and I haven't wavered. I see nothing wrong with that.

Saying a position is tougher and that's why a player isn't wow'ing me is digging. I'll counter your theory. If SG and SF are so weak, then why are you putting so much value in his man defense? Now, I'm not saying either wing position is weak, you are, but you commend Wiggins on his stout defense and it being an example of his star power. Which side of the argument would you like to stick with? You're angling to have both, and that's not possible.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

The fact that he isn't wowing everyone yet should say nothing about his future potential 23 games in his career. Some people on this board are choosing his lack of wow factor this early in his career as a red flag when really he just hasn't played enough for that to be a valid argument yet. He's put two really good efforts on the board already (23-10-4-2 and 29-5-2-4) from an overall game standpoint that people just seem to skip over either because he didn't drop 30 or get 5x5 or whatever. If we hit the end of the year and there just weren't many wow games looking back on the year then I would consider it a potential red flag. I think it is just way too early to be using any parts of his existing game against his future performance potential when he won't be a fully developed player for a few years. For being a very raw offensive player coming into the league, people certainly have high expectations of what he should already be able to do on a consistent basis on that end of the court. Instead they should look at the fact that he is finding ways to get the ball in the bucket just as often as the other rookies who came into the league with a lot more offensive polish and that should be looked at as a positive for how much room he can still grow on that end of the court and how scary good that could be once it fully develops. Everything about his makeup says to me to give him 2-3 years to mature physically and mentally before even beginning to start to question who he'll be as a player. You can argue that's not what a good #1 pick should have to go through to become good, but does it really matter if it doesn't click until he is 21-22 versus now at 19? The point is that once it clicks it will be very good. He's the most raw skilled #1 pick in a while, yet he is expected to produce like other top picks who came into the league with skillsets much more suited to be successful right out of the gate. It causes me to believe a lot of people just had the wrong expectations coming into this season if they believe he was going to be showing multiple star flashes this early in his career just because that is what #1 picks are supposed to do.

I put so much value in his man defense because a good chunk of the best scoring players (best scoring, not best overall) in the league play the wing which is who he has to guard. SG and SF overall have the least amount of great depth in the league, but they are the most top heavy of any other position in terms of top level scorers. Of the top 20 scorers in the league in PPG, 50% of them either play SG or SF which is the guy Wiggins has to defend. PG's make up 20% and bigs make up the other 30%. After the top 20, the next 20 top scorers are 30% SG/SF, 40% PG and 30% bigs. That is a pretty significant drop that shouldn't be overlooked.

[Porckchop]

There was a thread right after the love trade asking for a player to compare Wiggins to if he hits his ceiling. It seemed the majority felt Paul George was the answer. So how is it people are disappointed that they haven't seen superstar potential when his best comparible isn't a superstar? George is a very good player , but he didn't take off his first year either.