Minnesota Sports Forum

mjs34 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 01, 2024 5:15 pm

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Sat Jun 01, 2024 2:44 pm Best and Worst Wolves two-man pairing Net Ratings (minimum of 200 minutes played and 10 games):

Rudy/Ant - +12.8
Rudy/NAW - +11.1
Rudy/Jaden - +10.9
Rudy/Conley - +9.9
Jaden/Ant - +8.3
--------------------------------
KAT/NAW - (5.8)
Naz/NAW - (4.2)
Naz/Jaden - (.3)
KAT/Ant - +.3
Naz/Ant - +1.3

Best and Worst Wolves three-man units Net Ratings (minimum of 150 minutes and 10 games):
Rudy/Ant/NAW - +20.1
Rudy/Ant/Conley - +13.2
Rudy/KAT/Jaden - +12.6
Rudy/Ant/Jaden - +12.5
Rudy/KAT/Conley - +12.1
----------------------------------
KAT/Naz/Ant - (14.0)
KAT/NAW/Ant - (8.6)
Ant/NAW/Naz - +2.4
Ant/Naz/Jaden - +4.4
KAT/Ant/Conley - +5.8

Best and Worst Wolves four-man units Net Ratings (minimum of 75 minutes and 10 games):
Rudy/Ant/NAW/Naz - +23.6
Rudy/Ant/NAW/Jaden - +18.2
Rudy/Ant/Naz/Jaden - +16.6
Rudy/KAT/Conley/Jaden - +13.1
Rudy/Ant/KAT/Jaden - +12.6
---------------------------------------
KAT/Ant/NAW/Naz - (14.9)
Ant/NAW/Naz/SloMo - (5.0)
KAT/Ant/Naz/Jaden - (2.9)
KAT/Ant/NAW/Jaden - (1.1)
Ant/NAW/Naz/Jaden - +4.8

Best and Worst Wolves five-man units Net Ratings (minimum of 30 minutes and 10 games):
Rudy/Ant/Jaden/NAW/Naz - +18.6
Rudy/Ant/Jaden/Conley/KAT - +12.4
Rudy/Ant/Jaden/NAW/KAT - +9.5
Rudy/Ant/Jaden/Conley/Naz - +2.8
Ant/KAT/Jaden/NAW/Naz- (5.0)
--------------------------------------------
Ant/KAT/NAW/Naz/SloMo - (35.3)*

*There were no more 5-man units that played more than 30 minutes together. It gets really wonky at such a small sample of minutes.

Thanks Q,

Shocking that not only is Rudy not in any of the bad lineups, but also the gaps between the worst and best. I always take these stats with a grain of salt, but when something is so overwhelming you can't really argue with them. I guess I may have to rethink moving KAT or Naz.

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Sat Jun 01, 2024 6:29 pm

mjs34 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 01, 2024 5:15 pm

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Sat Jun 01, 2024 2:44 pm Best and Worst Wolves two-man pairing Net Ratings (minimum of 200 minutes played and 10 games):

Rudy/Ant - +12.8
Rudy/NAW - +11.1
Rudy/Jaden - +10.9
Rudy/Conley - +9.9
Jaden/Ant - +8.3
--------------------------------
KAT/NAW - (5.8)
Naz/NAW - (4.2)
Naz/Jaden - (.3)
KAT/Ant - +.3
Naz/Ant - +1.3

Best and Worst Wolves three-man units Net Ratings (minimum of 150 minutes and 10 games):
Rudy/Ant/NAW - +20.1
Rudy/Ant/Conley - +13.2
Rudy/KAT/Jaden - +12.6
Rudy/Ant/Jaden - +12.5
Rudy/KAT/Conley - +12.1
----------------------------------
KAT/Naz/Ant - (14.0)
KAT/NAW/Ant - (8.6)
Ant/NAW/Naz - +2.4
Ant/Naz/Jaden - +4.4
KAT/Ant/Conley - +5.8

Best and Worst Wolves four-man units Net Ratings (minimum of 75 minutes and 10 games):
Rudy/Ant/NAW/Naz - +23.6
Rudy/Ant/NAW/Jaden - +18.2
Rudy/Ant/Naz/Jaden - +16.6
Rudy/KAT/Conley/Jaden - +13.1
Rudy/Ant/KAT/Jaden - +12.6
---------------------------------------
KAT/Ant/NAW/Naz - (14.9)
Ant/NAW/Naz/SloMo - (5.0)
KAT/Ant/Naz/Jaden - (2.9)
KAT/Ant/NAW/Jaden - (1.1)
Ant/NAW/Naz/Jaden - +4.8

Best and Worst Wolves five-man units Net Ratings (minimum of 30 minutes and 10 games):
Rudy/Ant/Jaden/NAW/Naz - +18.6
Rudy/Ant/Jaden/Conley/KAT - +12.4
Rudy/Ant/Jaden/NAW/KAT - +9.5
Rudy/Ant/Jaden/Conley/Naz - +2.8
Ant/KAT/Jaden/NAW/Naz- (5.0)
--------------------------------------------
Ant/KAT/NAW/Naz/SloMo - (35.3)*

*There were no more 5-man units that played more than 30 minutes together. It gets really wonky at such a small sample of minutes.

Thanks Q,

Shocking that not only is Rudy not in any of the bad lineups, but also the gaps between the worst and best. I always take these stats with a grain of salt, but when something is so overwhelming you can't really argue with them. I guess I may have to rethink moving KAT or Naz.

And in case anyone thought this was just a "hot" playoffs for Rudy in terms of his +/-, he also had the highest net rating among Wolves starters in the regular season:

Rudy - +8.0
Ant - +7.3
KAT - +7.2
Conley - +5.7
Jaden - +3.8
---------------
NAW - +7.6
Naz - +5.7
SloMo - +5.1

Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 01, 2024 11:00 am
I agree with you pretty much down the line, Carlos. But I think you took things a bit too far referring to KAT “marginally improving his shitty defense.” His improvement has actually been substantial compared to what it was a few years ago. He had already gone from shitty to OK two years ago and this season he was really good defensively. Having said that, I agree with your core point that Ant is not getting enough credit for his substantial defensive improvement. Further, like you I’d be open to trading KAT and would prefer to keep Naz over KAT.

Carlos Danger wrote: ↑Sun Jun 02, 2024 9:47 am

Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 01, 2024 11:00 am
I agree with you pretty much down the line, Carlos. But I think you took things a bit too far referring to KAT “marginally improving his shitty defense.” His improvement has actually been substantial compared to what it was a few years ago. He had already gone from shitty to OK two years ago and this season he was really good defensively. Having said that, I agree with your core point that Ant is not getting enough credit for his substantial defensive improvement. Further, like you I’d be open to trading KAT and would prefer to keep Naz over KAT.

Haha - yes Lip, I did take it too far (I can admit that). I did it mainly for effect. I know you (and many others) have been giving Towns credit for improvement on defense. But I haven't seen many (if any) posts regarding Edwards improvements on defense. I just think that Edwards improvement is so much more significant. He is the Alpha dog we've been waiting for and he's buying into playing both sides of the ball. Some of the video I watched him showed similar effort to what I saw out of NAW and McDaniels. It's possibly why he wore down towards the end of games/playoffs? IDK - I don't want to make excuses. But it's pretty exciting to see him buying in at such a young age and it's possibly why I have a bee in my bonnet about Towns only making slight improvements in defense after so many years of nothing.

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Sat Jun 01, 2024 2:46 pm Rudy not in a single bad lineup combination. Crazy.

Wolvesfan21 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 02, 2024 10:40 am You are still underselling it. KAT was very good in the Suns series guarding KD, even better on Jokic. Rudy doesn't have the lower strength that KAT does to not let him get driven down into the paint. KAT was awesome on Jokic. Jokic is the MVP and KAT made his life hard. Now in the Dallas series KAT wasn't asked to do as much, his rotations weren't great and he fouled too much. I think we can say he wasn't good against Dallas. But overall in the regular season and first two rounds he was impressive. He's made serious improvements on defense this year. I think that being a focus of the team made him up his play.

Which does make you wonder if you can take other avg/below avg defenders into this team and get them to play at a high level? I think it's certainly possible.

Carlos Danger wrote: ↑Sun Jun 02, 2024 2:18 pm

Wolvesfan21 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 02, 2024 10:40 am You are still underselling it. KAT was very good in the Suns series guarding KD, even better on Jokic. Rudy doesn't have the lower strength that KAT does to not let him get driven down into the paint. KAT was awesome on Jokic. Jokic is the MVP and KAT made his life hard. Now in the Dallas series KAT wasn't asked to do as much, his rotations weren't great and he fouled too much. I think we can say he wasn't good against Dallas. But overall in the regular season and first two rounds he was impressive. He's made serious improvements on defense this year. I think that being a focus of the team made him up his play.

Which does make you wonder if you can take other avg/below avg defenders into this team and get them to play at a high level? I think it's certainly possible.

Durant and Jokic were both top scorers on both those series. If Towns was guarding them the whole time, is that good defense? Or did they do their damage against someone else. Are there stats to show break that down?

I know Durant averaged 27.1 pts/game during the regular season and put up 26.8 in the playoffs. His FG% actually went up in our playoff series (.523 in regular season vs .552 in playoffs). So, I'm not seeing much of a Towns effect looking at those basic stats (unless it's in a break down of different guys guarding him).

Joker averaged 26.4 points/game in the regular season and 29.0 in the playoffs. His FG% was down in the playoffs (.517 vs. .583 in regular season). So I can at least see something in the stats to support what your telling me as a possibility (Towns making it harder on him). Of course, it's also possible Joker just missed some shots (like KAT) that he should have made - regardless of who was defending.

IDK. I'm not going to spend a lot of time on it because it's a lazy Sunday. I don't expect to change anyone's mind on Towns defense. Mine probably won't change either although I will leave a window slightly cracked if someone want to give me some stats (with links I can review/verify) to show Towns made significant improvements on defense. Otherwise, I'm sticking with my take which is "meh - I'm not impressed".

Wolvesfan21 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 02, 2024 3:16 pm

Carlos Danger wrote: ↑Sun Jun 02, 2024 2:18 pm

Wolvesfan21 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 02, 2024 10:40 am You are still underselling it. KAT was very good in the Suns series guarding KD, even better on Jokic. Rudy doesn't have the lower strength that KAT does to not let him get driven down into the paint. KAT was awesome on Jokic. Jokic is the MVP and KAT made his life hard. Now in the Dallas series KAT wasn't asked to do as much, his rotations weren't great and he fouled too much. I think we can say he wasn't good against Dallas. But overall in the regular season and first two rounds he was impressive. He's made serious improvements on defense this year. I think that being a focus of the team made him up his play.

Which does make you wonder if you can take other avg/below avg defenders into this team and get them to play at a high level? I think it's certainly possible.

Durant and Jokic were both top scorers on both those series. If Towns was guarding them the whole time, is that good defense? Or did they do their damage against someone else. Are there stats to show break that down?

I know Durant averaged 27.1 pts/game during the regular season and put up 26.8 in the playoffs. His FG% actually went up in our playoff series (.523 in regular season vs .552 in playoffs). So, I'm not seeing much of a Towns effect looking at those basic stats (unless it's in a break down of different guys guarding him).

Joker averaged 26.4 points/game in the regular season and 29.0 in the playoffs. His FG% was down in the playoffs (.517 vs. .583 in regular season). So I can at least see something in the stats to support what your telling me as a possibility (Towns making it harder on him). Of course, it's also possible Joker just missed some shots (like KAT) that he should have made - regardless of who was defending.

IDK. I'm not going to spend a lot of time on it because it's a lazy Sunday. I don't expect to change anyone's mind on Towns defense. Mine probably won't change either although I will leave a window slightly cracked if someone want to give me some stats (with links I can review/verify) to show Towns made significant improvements on defense. Otherwise, I'm sticking with my take which is "meh - I'm not impressed".

To answer your question it is still was good defense on Durant. Most superstar players come to play in the playoffs and their numbers go up. They don't care really that much about regular season. I don't think anyone can really do that great on Durant in the entire NBA. He's going to get good looks due to his skill and size no matter who is guarding him. Wether it was KAT or Jaden. He's going to get good looks.

Do you think Ant did poor on Luka when he went for 20 in game 5's first quarter? I think he did a good job. Luka is just that fucking good. Durant and Jokic are both top 5 talents on offense in the world, obviously they are going to score points. Just asking KAT to guard them and them not go off when the games mean the most is impressive. Especially Jokic.

Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 02, 2024 4:38 pm I agree, Wolvesfan. It comes back to Q’s refrain that, in the NBA, really good offensive will ultimately triumph over good defense. I agree with Q on that point. Maybe it wasn’t true 20 years ago, but it’s true now with the combination of 3-point shooting and officiating.