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Re: It’s the Offense, Stupid!

Posted: Thu Jan 09, 2025 1:12 am
by Coolbreeze44
I agree with Lip that Ant is probably the most equipped in franchise history to be the best player on a championship team.
Unfortunately, that's a bigger indictment on the franchise than it is an endorsement for Ant. We have never had a player with those chops and we still don't.

Re: It’s the Offense, Stupid!

Posted: Thu Jan 09, 2025 9:12 am
by Q-is-here
Lipoli390 wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2025 11:55 pm Q’s right. We’re half way through the season and the team has been extraordinarily healthy. So we know what we have. I like the recent wins and Ant seems to be out of his funk and finding a way to impact the game again with his elite scoring talent. But even in these recent wins, our offense is still pretty bad. We’ve averaged 109 PPG, which is 22nd in the League. Last season we averaged 113 PPG. The offensive drop off is substantial and reflects the player personnel we have now compared to last season. It doesn’t mean we’re a terrible team. Our defense is still very good, we’re playing a bit better and we’re poised to make the playoffs if we continue to play the way we’ve been playing the past few games and remain healthy. But we simply don’t have the offense to be a title contender like we were last season.

Last season our offense was just good enough to combine with our outstanding defense to make this team a legitimate title contender with the 3rd best record in the West. The KAT trade and Father Time catching up with Mike Conley have combined to take that offense, which was barely good enough, down a couple notches to where it’s no longer good enough. And our defense has lost a little bit as well going from KAT to Randle and losing Slo Mo.

I don’t think replacing Finch is the answer. He’s a terrific coach and I don’t think he’s lost the team’s ear. He’s doing the best he can with the personnel he has. While I think we’d get some addition by subtraction moving on from Randle, it wouldn’t be enough to significantly move the needle this season in my view. We’d have to replace his 20 points per game and there would be a transition period to figure things out during which I think we’d struggle. I still think we should try to move Randle by the February deadline, but I see that as a longer term play not something that will materially improve the Wolves chances of competing for a title or making a playoff run this season.

I see moving Randle as a move to pay dividends next season and beyond as part of transitioning to a team more like the one we were building around Ant before the Gobert trade. I think Rudy can be part of that, but Randle can’t. Ant’s recent play has me even more convinced we can retool quickly and successfully around him. Jaden and Donte are playing better lately as well. I remain bullish on Dilly, TSJ and Minott. I’m intrigued by Clark and my view of Miller has been bolstered by his impressive G-League play this season. I’m also intrigued by the young PG we just signed. In addition, it looks like we’ll have a mid-1st round pick from Detroit either this year or next.

So I’m not depressed or angry about the current Wolves situation. I share TC’s goal of having a sustainable title contender over multiple years. I just don’t think this current roster can satisfy that goal. We even have some proclaiming that Ant can’t be the guy we build around and that we should trade him. I remember fans saying KG couldn’t be the guy. We traded him and the organization went into a 10-year funk. I remember fans saying KAT couldn’t be the guy and that we should trade him. We traded him before this season and predictably we’re back to playing at about the same level as two seasons ago when KAT missed almost the entire season.

Of the three greatest players this franchise has had (KG, KAT, Ant), Ant is probably the best equipped to be the best player on a title contender. The problem is that our front office mistakenly failed to focus on building a team ideally suited to the talents of its best player. That mistake is still correctable. And for that reason, I remain optimistic over the long turn. I’m just not optimistic about this season.
Good assessment of the situation Lip.

Yeah, I think this year is a transition year and we can't make a move out of desperation for the sake of this season alone that may cost us assets that could be valuable to our future.

Cleveland, Boston, and OKC are just on such a vastly different tier than us that no matter what kind of optimizing Finch and Co. does with this current roster, it isn't going to be good enough to contend for a title. That doesn't mean the team shouldn't try their hardest to compete this season (outside of forgoing valuable future assets), but we need to face the reality that a lot of us were dead wrong in our Wins Prediction/Playoffs Prediction thread!

Re: It’s the Offense, Stupid!

Posted: Thu Jan 09, 2025 9:30 am
by FNG
I'm looking forward to listening to Dane Moore's podcast this afternoon with Chris Hines who just had an interview with Finchie. Dane says the disconnect between Randle's value in the eyes of the coaching staff and the fans' perception is as wide as any he's ever seen. Randle's net rating since December 1 is the best of the 8 in the rotation, and Finchie has nothing but positive things to say about him. Now, it may be that Finchie is just trying to build up Ju's value in anticipation of a trade, but I'm inclined to think he truly values Ju and doesn't want to move him. That doesn't mean that TC won't pull the trigger if there is a deal he thinks improves the team, but I don't think that is the coach's first choice.

Re: It’s the Offense, Stupid!

Posted: Thu Jan 09, 2025 11:28 am
by Lipoli390
FNG wrote: Thu Jan 09, 2025 9:30 am I'm looking forward to listening to Dane Moore's podcast this afternoon with Chris Hines who just had an interview with Finchie. Dane says the disconnect between Randle's value in the eyes of the coaching staff and the fans' perception is as wide as any he's ever seen. Randle's net rating since December 1 is the best of the 8 in the rotation, and Finchie has nothing but positive things to say about him. Now, it may be that Finchie is just trying to build up Ju's value in anticipation of a trade, but I'm inclined to think he truly values Ju and doesn't want to move him. That doesn't mean that TC won't pull the trigger if there is a deal he thinks improves the team, but I don't think that is the coach's first choice.
Hmm. Interesting. I have a lot of respect for Finch. Honestly, it’s hard to criticize Randle. He delivers what you would expect him to deliver nearly every game. I still think he and Rudy together create a poor fit for Ant and severely constrain his impact. I don’t think Randle’s net rating since Dec. 1 changes that. I still come back to the stats Q posted recently showing that Randle and Rudy don’t appear together in any of our best 2, 3, 4 or 5 player combos. I like that Finch is talking up Randle. I believe he sincerely likes Randle but I suspect some of it is puffery to help maximize Randle’s trade value.

Re: It’s the Offense, Stupid!

Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2025 8:31 am
by Sundog
I think the comments were intended to bolster Julius rather than puffery re: a trade. I think Finch wanted to publicly recognize that Randle has made small sacrifices in his game for the good of his team and to let Randle and the public know the coach appreciates that.

If the team had more completely fallen off, I think a trade would be more likely. But it hasn’t and a trade involving one of the core parts (the 8 guys who play) would set team chemistry back again. So I don’t expect any of those guys to get traded. I think the wolves will stand pat.

Re: It’s the Offense, Stupid!

Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2025 8:47 am
by Q-is-here
It's perfectly reasonable - I'd argue necessary - for the coach to praise Julius and try to maximize his value to the team. That's his job as coach. And I think it's fair to say that Randle has done a good job.

But the front office has to be cold-hearted, clear-eyed, and sober when looking at the situation and the fact remains that a) his fit is still questionable, and b) things get problematic if he picks up his option for next season.

Re: It’s the Offense, Stupid!

Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2025 9:29 am
by 60WinTim
Q-is-here wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2025 8:47 am It's perfectly reasonable - I'd argue necessary - for the coach to praise Julius and try to maximize his value to the team. That's his job as coach. And I think it's fair to say that Randle has done a good job.

But the front office has to be cold-hearted, clear-eyed, and sober when looking at the situation and the fact remains that a) his fit is still questionable, and b) things get problematic if he picks up his option for next season.
I don't know if I am just becoming desensitized, or whether Randle is making the effort to adapt his game for the Wolves, but I am finding myself less offended by Randle's play than earlier in the season. I think we are seeing a better defensive effort and quicker decisions on the offensive end. Then I start wondering how we would replace what Randle is providing? I am not sold on NAZ as a starter.

I'm also not worried about Randle picking up his option. If the fit is working, I foresee a extension being worked out, ala Rudy.

Re: It’s the Offense, Stupid!

Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2025 10:53 am
by Q-is-here
60WinTim wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2025 9:29 am
Q-is-here wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2025 8:47 am It's perfectly reasonable - I'd argue necessary - for the coach to praise Julius and try to maximize his value to the team. That's his job as coach. And I think it's fair to say that Randle has done a good job.

But the front office has to be cold-hearted, clear-eyed, and sober when looking at the situation and the fact remains that a) his fit is still questionable, and b) things get problematic if he picks up his option for next season.
I don't know if I am just becoming desensitized, or whether Randle is making the effort to adapt his game for the Wolves, but I am finding myself less offended by Randle's play than earlier in the season. I think we are seeing a better defensive effort and quicker decisions on the offensive end. Then I start wondering how we would replace what Randle is providing? I am not sold on NAZ as a starter.

I'm also not worried about Randle picking up his option. If the fit is working, I foresee a extension being worked out, ala Rudy.
Naz can't replace Randle in terms of shot-creation and creating for others. But Naz also brings better outside shooting and quicker decision making. He's a ball mover and has shown synergy with both Ant and Rudy over the last few seasons.

It's insane to me that one of the best shooters and drivers in the NBA isn't among the top 3 or 4 in the NBA in scoring. So I think some of Randle's shot creation simply gets tacked onto Ant's workload. Then we have guys like Dillingham and Shannon, elite scorers at the NCAA level, that I think can form a pretty potent bench combo next season. And eventually one of them may be starting for us.

Last season we went a bunch of games with Naz starting at PF and KAT out hurt. We were fine!

Re: It’s the Offense, Stupid!

Posted: Fri Jan 10, 2025 11:14 am
by 60WinTim
Q-is-here wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2025 10:53 am
60WinTim wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2025 9:29 am
Q-is-here wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2025 8:47 am It's perfectly reasonable - I'd argue necessary - for the coach to praise Julius and try to maximize his value to the team. That's his job as coach. And I think it's fair to say that Randle has done a good job.

But the front office has to be cold-hearted, clear-eyed, and sober when looking at the situation and the fact remains that a) his fit is still questionable, and b) things get problematic if he picks up his option for next season.
I don't know if I am just becoming desensitized, or whether Randle is making the effort to adapt his game for the Wolves, but I am finding myself less offended by Randle's play than earlier in the season. I think we are seeing a better defensive effort and quicker decisions on the offensive end. Then I start wondering how we would replace what Randle is providing? I am not sold on NAZ as a starter.

I'm also not worried about Randle picking up his option. If the fit is working, I foresee a extension being worked out, ala Rudy.
Naz can't replace Randle in terms of shot-creation and creating for others. But Naz also brings better outside shooting and quicker decision making. He's a ball mover and has shown synergy with both Ant and Rudy over the last few seasons.

It's insane to me that one of the best shooters and drivers in the NBA isn't among the top 3 or 4 in the NBA in scoring. So I think some of Randle's shot creation simply gets tacked onto Ant's workload. Then we have guys like Dillingham and Shannon, elite scorers at the NCAA level, that I think can form a pretty potent bench combo next season. And eventually one of them may be starting for us.

Last season we went a bunch of games with Naz starting at PF and KAT out hurt. We were fine!
True.

And there in lines Connelly's dilemma. He needs to decide by the trade deadline if he plans to workout an extension with Randle. Because if the answer is "no", then he really needs to pursue a trade by the deadline.

Re: It’s the Offense, Stupid!

Posted: Sat Jan 11, 2025 12:45 am
by Lipoli390
Q-is-here wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2025 8:47 am It's perfectly reasonable - I'd argue necessary - for the coach to praise Julius and try to maximize his value to the team. That's his job as coach. And I think it's fair to say that Randle has done a good job.

But the front office has to be cold-hearted, clear-eyed, and sober when looking at the situation and the fact remains that a) his fit is still questionable, and b) things get problematic if he picks up his option for next season.
Absolutely right, Q. Actually, I’m pleased with Randle’s play. He’s giving effort and producing consistent with his capabilities. But that’s not the point. The point is - he’s not as good as KAT or either side of the ball and more importantly he doesn’t fit well with Rudy and Ant. The result is obvious in the team’s record and quality of play this season relative to last season. Meanwhile, KAT is averaging 25 highly efficient points per game, stretching the floor for Brunson and leading the League in rebounding. Not surprisingly, the Knicks much better than they were last season, currently in third place in the East with the 3rd best offense in the NBA. Some things are just plainly obvious.

None of this tells us exactly what to do with Randle but it tells us we can’t continue with this roster beyond this season and expect to be a title contender. We’ve won some games lately, but with the exception of the Orlando game those wins weren’t particularly impressive. Our offense is still a bottom half offense, Julius isn’t going to become a different player and Mike Conley isn’t going to get younger.