Playoffs discussion

[Q-is-here]

Big wins against Philly and Charlotte, which I wish we could have taken for granted, but alas, the Wolves have played down to their competition all season. The fact we got two in a row against vastly inferior opponents is progress.

Curious what Tim and FNG have in their models for the game @Miami. Do you guys have that as a win or loss?

[FNG]

Big wins against Philly and Charlotte, which I wish we could have taken for granted, but alas, the Wolves have played down to their competition all season. The fact we got two in a row against vastly inferior opponents is progress.

Curious what Tim and FNG have in their models for the game @Miami. Do you guys have that as a win or loss?

Q, tough one to call, but I have it as a win. So much uncertainty though with who will be available to play for the Heat (and I guess with Gobert too). I'm thinking the Wolves will be a slight favorite though, so it's in my win column. I'm not calling this a must win, but I think it will tell us a lot about our squad's chances.

[60WinTim]

Big wins against Philly and Charlotte, which I wish we could have taken for granted, but alas, the Wolves have played down to their competition all season. The fact we got two in a row against vastly inferior opponents is progress.

Curious what Tim and FNG have in their models for the game @Miami. Do you guys have that as a win or loss?

Q, tough one to call, but I have it as a win. So much uncertainty though with who will be available to play for the Heat (and I guess with Gobert too). I'm thinking the Wolves will be a slight favorite though, so it's in my win column. I'm not calling this a must win, but I think it will tell us a lot about our squad's chances.

The KOM is very simplistic. The Wolves and Heat are both in my Tier 2, so the KOM favors the home team Heat. Which means it is an anti-klunker opportunity for the Wolves.

The KOM projects the Wolves at 47 wins. They will have 6 anti-klunker opportunities over the remainder of the season (the first one tomorrow night).

[FNG]

Big wins against Philly and Charlotte, which I wish we could have taken for granted, but alas, the Wolves have played down to their competition all season. The fact we got two in a row against vastly inferior opponents is progress.

Curious what Tim and FNG have in their models for the game @Miami. Do you guys have that as a win or loss?

Q, tough one to call, but I have it as a win. So much uncertainty though with who will be available to play for the Heat (and I guess with Gobert too). I'm thinking the Wolves will be a slight favorite though, so it's in my win column. I'm not calling this a must win, but I think it will tell us a lot about our squad's chances.

The KOM is very simplistic. The Wolves and Heat are both in my Tier 2, so the KOM favors the home team Heat. Which means it is an anti-klunker opportunity for the Wolves.

The KOM projects the Wolves at 47 wins. They will have 6 anti-klunker opportunities over the remainder of the season (the first one tomorrow night).

Whereas my model is extremely complex with multiple algorithms and use of AI .

Tim and I have some significant differences, mostly because I don't see the teams between us and OkC as strong as he does. It will be fun to see how this plays out. I think there will be numerous anti-Klunkers, especially as injuries begin to factor in. Here's where I am currently (not tracking OkC because they are so far ahead).

1) OkC
2) Lakers 53
3) Nuggets 52
4) Griz 51
5) Warriors 49 (own tiebreaker)
6) Rockets 49
7) Wolves 48
8) Clips 46
9) Mavs 44
10) Sac 39

Interestingly, Tim and I both have us playing the Lakers in the first round, albeit me after beating the Clips in the play in and facing the 2nd seed, and Tim in a 6-3 matchup. This is shaping up to be every bit as close as last season.

[Q-is-here]

Q, tough one to call, but I have it as a win. So much uncertainty though with who will be available to play for the Heat (and I guess with Gobert too). I'm thinking the Wolves will be a slight favorite though, so it's in my win column. I'm not calling this a must win, but I think it will tell us a lot about our squad's chances.

The KOM is very simplistic. The Wolves and Heat are both in my Tier 2, so the KOM favors the home team Heat. Which means it is an anti-klunker opportunity for the Wolves.

The KOM projects the Wolves at 47 wins. They will have 6 anti-klunker opportunities over the remainder of the season (the first one tomorrow night).

Whereas my model is extremely complex with multiple algorithms and use of AI .

Tim and I have some significant differences, mostly because I don't see the teams between us and OkC as strong as he does. It will be fun to see how this plays out. I think there will be numerous anti-Klunkers, especially as injuries begin to factor in. Here's where I am currently (not tracking OkC because they are so far ahead).

1) OkC
2) Lakers 53
3) Nuggets 52
4) Griz 51
5) Warriors 49 (own tiebreaker)
6) Rockets 49
7) Wolves 48
8) Clips 46
9) Mavs 44
10) Sac 39

Interestingly, Tim and I both have us playing the Lakers in the first round, albeit me after beating the Clips in the play in and facing the 2nd seed, and Tim in a 6-3 matchup. This is shaping up to be every bit as close as last season.

Interesting. Thank you both.

[60WinTim]

Speaking of Elon Musk... I asked Grok "What is the mostly likely playoff seeding for the Western Conference in the NBA?"

The answer:

As of March 6, 2025, predicting the most likely playoff seeding for the Western Conference in the NBA involves analyzing current standings, team performance trends, remaining schedules, and expert projections. While I don’t have access to real-time standings beyond the data provided, I can synthesize available information from web sources and general trends to offer a reasoned prediction. The Western Conference is notoriously competitive, with tight races often persisting until the final games, so this is a snapshot based on the state of the league around early March 2025.

The NBA playoff structure includes the top six seeds directly qualifying, while seeds 7-10 compete in the Play-In Tournament to determine the final two playoff spots (7 and 8). With the season nearing its final stretch (the playoffs start April 19, 2025, preceded by the Play-In from April 15-18), here’s a likely seeding based on recent updates and analysis:

### Likely Western Conference Playoff Seeding
1. **Oklahoma City Thunder**
- The Thunder have consistently been projected as the top seed, bolstered by a strong season led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and offseason additions like Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein. Sources like NBC Sports and Student Life peg them as the team to beat, with an 8-game lead over the second seed noted in mid-February (Golden State Of Mind). Even with potential late-season stumbles, their depth and consistency make them the most likely No. 1 seed.

2. **Denver Nuggets**
- Denver, with Nikola Jokić anchoring a top-tier offense, remains a perennial contender. They’ve been a top-3 team throughout the season, often vying for the top seed (e.g., tied for first in early April 2024 per NBA updates). Bleacher Report highlights their resilience as long as Jokić stays healthy, positioning them as a probable No. 2 seed if OKC holds the top spot.

3. **Memphis Grizzlies**
- The Grizzlies have surged in projections, with Ja Morant’s return and a talented roster including Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Edey. Bleacher Report notes their top-7 offense and defense, suggesting they won’t fall below No. 3. Their fourth-hardest remaining schedule could prevent a higher seed, making No. 3 a reasonable landing spot.

4. **Los Angeles Lakers**
- Recent trades (e.g., acquiring Luka Dončić in a hypothetical swap with Anthony Davis per Bleacher Report) have boosted the Lakers’ outlook. They’ve climbed standings in late-season updates (e.g., tied for 8th in April 2024, then rising to 8th by NBA posts). A No. 4 seed feels plausible if their star power gels, especially with a favorable late push.

5. **Los Angeles Clippers**
- The Clippers’ consistency (rising to 8th by March 5 per NBA updates) and a strong core keep them in the top six. Bleacher Report pairs them against the Lakers in a 4-vs-5 matchup, reflecting their mid-tier contention. They’re likely to hold No. 5 with steady play.

6. **Houston Rockets**
- Houston’s blend of youth and veteran leadership (e.g., Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith Jr.) has them knocking on the playoff door. Bleacher Report notes a slide to No. 6 due to injuries, but they’re still favored to avoid the Play-In with a guaranteed spot.

#### Play-In Tournament Seeds (7-10)
7. **Minnesota Timberwolves**
- Despite early top-3 billing (e.g., tied for first in April 2024), Minnesota’s inconsistency—exacerbated by injuries to Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo (Bleacher Report)—drops them to the Play-In. Anthony Edwards’ heroics could secure the 7th seed.

8. **Golden State Warriors**
- The Warriors’ transformation post-Jimmy Butler trade (Golden State Of Mind) and a 2-1 record vs. OKC give them an edge. They’re a strong Play-In candidate, likely clinching No. 8 with Steph Curry’s playoff prowess.

9. **Dallas Mavericks**
- Dallas’ outlook dims with the Dončić trade and injuries to Anthony Davis and others (Bleacher Report). They slide to No. 9, fighting for a Play-In spot with a roster in flux.

10. **Phoenix Suns**
- Phoenix’s struggles (1-6 since January 31 per Golden State Of Mind) and a tough remaining schedule (noted by X posts) push them to No. 10. Kevin Durant and Devin Booker give them a shot, but they’re on the bubble.

### Rationale and Caveats
- **Top Tier (1-3):** OKC, Denver, and Memphis are widely seen as the West’s elite, with projections from NBC Sports, Student Life, and Bleacher Report aligning on their dominance. OKC’s lead and Denver’s Jokić factor make them near-locks, while Memphis’ ceiling is tempered by schedule difficulty.
- **Middle Pack (4-6):** The Lakers, Clippers, and Rockets reflect a tight mid-tier race (e.g., 1.5 games separating 2-5 per X posts). Trades and health (e.g., Lakers’ boost, Rockets’ injuries) shape this group.
- **Play-In (7-10):** Minnesota’s fade, Golden State’s resurgence, and Dallas/Phoenix’s struggles mirror late-season volatility seen in prior years (e.g., 2024’s final-day chaos per NBA.com). The 3.5-4.5 game gaps between tiers (X posts) suggest these teams are settling into Play-In territory.

This prediction assumes no catastrophic injuries or dramatic late surges, which the West’s depth often defies. The final seeding could shift (e.g., Minnesota or Golden State jumping to 6, Phoenix falling out), but this reflects the most likely outcome based on current trajectories as of early March 2025. For the latest updates, checking NBA.com or real-time standings closer to April would refine this further.

[60WinTim]

The entire Western Conference is in action tonight, except for the Wolves and Pelicans. Lots of opportunities for klunkers and/or anti-klunkers. It's kind of fun to kick back and watch the teams move around us!

[60WinTim]

First casualty of the night: Lakers lose to the tanking Nets. They don't have a ton of size sans LeBron. But I doubt they lose enough to make it interesting for the Wolves...

[FNG]

Tim, I just listened to the Dane Moore forecast where they analyze the Wolves’ last 16 games. It sounds like they have them finishing with 48 wins, same as I have and one more than your 47. I suspect the difference is we have them stealing a win at Indiana that you might have as a loss. We’re on the same page though.

First and foremost, we have to take care of the games against the bottom dwellers…2 each with Utah, Brooklyn and the pelicans plus the Philly game. I think the return of Julius will be helpful in not overlooking these 7 games we should win.

[BloopOracle]

Kings got blasted last night, would like to see them continue to falter so our worst case scenario is still 2 cracks in the play-in