Mike, Rob, and Bones

[Q-is-here]

As I’ve mentioned many times, we don’t know what we have in Rob because he hasn’t played enough minutes. If the organization refuses to given him the minutes necessary to fully evaluate him, as well as develop him, that’s understandable even though I think it’s a bad decision. I think he should get 25 minutes a game for a long stretch and let’s see where it takes us. It could pay off this season and, if not, it could pay dividends next season and beyond. However, if we don’t do that and we’re basing PG minutes on what we actually know about our three PGs, then Rob is the odd man out, in which case I think it’s Bones and Conley in that order barring some sort of trade for a PG.

I wouldn’t give up value for a mercurial 33 year old coming off a torn ACL. If I wanted to trade for a PG, I’d set my sights on Jrue Holiday and Derrick White. We could make a run at Tyus Jones who is having a terrible year and playing very little. We should be able to get him without giving up much. Maybe Conley for Jones. But honestly, I don’t think Tyus Jones or his equivalent moves the needle and makes this team a title contender. Jrue Holiday or Derrick White might be enough, depending on who we give up to get one of them.

For now, I think we should go with Bones as our main PG and see what happens unless and until Finch is ready to give Rob the run he needs to see whether he can take the next step his former backcourt mate at Kentucky has taken this season.

There are JJ McCarthy parallels here.

The Timberwolves are a veteran team... a perennial playoff team. Dillingham is just not even remotely close to the same level. He might get there eventually, but at what cost to the other players and organization? How much should they be expected to deal with such glaring flaws? Is there enough untapped potential to make it worthwhile?

At this point, Dillingham just hasn't earned more minutes. He's actually playing worse than last season. Can we point to one thing he does well? Not serviceably well... one thing he's better than most players at?

- It's not defense (although his scrappiness on that side might be the biggest surprise... and actually the best thing he has going right now). But it's universally accepted he's going to be below average defensively and targeted often. It's simply a size thing.
- It's not shooting (35/29/69 this season... 44/34/53 last year). There are so many moving parts on his jumper that can potentially limit improvement here. And he's been a poor finisher.
- It's not creating for others. Statistically, he's pedestrian in volume and has a 2/1 A/TO ratio both years. He might be a pretty solid lob passer, but most of his assists are just moving the ball to an open player who hits a jump shot. He's not creating guys open for easy looks. There's a subtle difference, but it's a BIG one.
- He's not very aggressive for a young, athletic guard. This is an eye test thing, but I think it's maybe most telling of all. Count how many times Dillingham is out ahead of the play with the ball -- often with a numbers advantage -- and yet instead of staying on the attack as ALL guards should do... the Wolves PG of the future often ends up passing the ball backwards to a trailer on the play. Even guys like Reid end up with the ball 30 feet from the hoop now facing a set defense instead of the young athletic guard leading a numbers-advantage opportunity. This is HUGE RED FLAG about Dillingham's chops as a potential legit starter in this league.

Either he just doesn't have the skills... or his head is too messed up and he's playing scared. Either way, it's a terrible sign.

- The minutes. Again... kinda tough to give undeserved minutes to a guy on a vet-laden team, making the team worse at least in the short term. As for those minutes, pro sports are a billions-dollars business. You either show off something or you're forgotten, leap-frogged, or even dismissed.

Look at a guy like Collin Gillespie. He played only about 600 minutes in his career coming into this season. But even in those minutes, he showed he had at least one "better than average" skill... he shot 40% and 43% on threes his first two seasons on decent volume. Ryan Nembhard has only played 200+ minutes in his career... and look at what he's doing.

Former college teammate, Reed Sheppard, might be the best (favorable) comp for Dillingham. He had a TERRIBLE rookie season, very comparable to Dillingham, even worse. He's shown he can be a good high-volume three point shooter this season... shooting 45% on pretty good volume. Granted, he was given more of an opportunity in year two in part because the starting PG went down. But in a results-driven industry, he's made himself more indispensable by being better than other players in at least one part of the game.

- Most telling of all as I also mentioned elsewhere... when the star of the organization (the guy who could get ANYONE fired) is championing for the journeyman, flawed 3rd stringer to play over the #8 pick in the draft... it's a very bad sign. What we think doesn't matter. What the coaches think... matters. What Anthony Edwards thinks... really matters. And obviously, there's not a lot of confidence on the Wolves sideline when it comes to their prized young PG.

- I feel for the kid. But at the same time, he's a millionaire many times over. And pro sports are littered with guys that simply didn't pan out like they were supposed to. It happens. And it may very well be happening with Rob Dillingham... at least on the Timberwolves.

I think he'd benefit greatly from getting run (and regaining confidence) on a team with a lot less at stake. A team that is more prepared to live with his development... and willing to take a chance on him figuring things out eventually despite short-term costs.

From a pure basketball perspective, he came out of school too early. He probably needed to play at Kentucky for another year or two. But I get the economics of it in terms of him wanting to cash in on his lottery ticket. But even that may bite him in the ass if his lack of readiness kills his chances at a second deal!

The team he should go to with much less at stake and willing to ride out his development is right under our noses. They are called the Iowa Wolves. But for some stupid reason it's taboo to send former lottery picks there for anything more than a token game or two. Like I said earlier, he may end up there under much more humbling circumstances like Killian Hayes did.

[Lipoli390]

As I’ve mentioned many times, we don’t know what we have in Rob because he hasn’t played enough minutes. If the organization refuses to given him the minutes necessary to fully evaluate him, as well as develop him, that’s understandable even though I think it’s a bad decision. I think he should get 25 minutes a game for a long stretch and let’s see where it takes us. It could pay off this season and, if not, it could pay dividends next season and beyond. However, if we don’t do that and we’re basing PG minutes on what we actually know about our three PGs, then Rob is the odd man out, in which case I think it’s Bones and Conley in that order barring some sort of trade for a PG.

I wouldn’t give up value for a mercurial 33 year old coming off a torn ACL. If I wanted to trade for a PG, I’d set my sights on Jrue Holiday and Derrick White. We could make a run at Tyus Jones who is having a terrible year and playing very little. We should be able to get him without giving up much. Maybe Conley for Jones. But honestly, I don’t think Tyus Jones or his equivalent moves the needle and makes this team a title contender. Jrue Holiday or Derrick White might be enough, depending on who we give up to get one of them.

For now, I think we should go with Bones as our main PG and see what happens unless and until Finch is ready to give Rob the run he needs to see whether he can take the next step his former backcourt mate at Kentucky has taken this season.

There are JJ McCarthy parallels here.

The Timberwolves are a veteran team... a perennial playoff team. Dillingham is just not even remotely close to the same level. He might get there eventually, but at what cost to the other players and organization? How much should they be expected to deal with such glaring flaws? Is there enough untapped potential to make it worthwhile?

At this point, Dillingham just hasn't earned more minutes. He's actually playing worse than last season. Can we point to one thing he does well? Not serviceably well... one thing he's better than most players at?

- It's not defense (although his scrappiness on that side might be the biggest surprise... and actually the best thing he has going right now). But it's universally accepted he's going to be below average defensively and targeted often. It's simply a size thing.
- It's not shooting (35/29/69 this season... 44/34/53 last year). There are so many moving parts on his jumper that can potentially limit improvement here. And he's been a poor finisher.
- It's not creating for others. Statistically, he's pedestrian in volume and has a 2/1 A/TO ratio both years. He might be a pretty solid lob passer, but most of his assists are just moving the ball to an open player who hits a jump shot. He's not creating guys open for easy looks. There's a subtle difference, but it's a BIG one.
- He's not very aggressive for a young, athletic guard. This is an eye test thing, but I think it's maybe most telling of all. Count how many times Dillingham is out ahead of the play with the ball -- often with a numbers advantage -- and yet instead of staying on the attack as ALL guards should do... the Wolves PG of the future often ends up passing the ball backwards to a trailer on the play. Even guys like Reid end up with the ball 30 feet from the hoop now facing a set defense instead of the young athletic guard leading a numbers-advantage opportunity. This is HUGE RED FLAG about Dillingham's chops as a potential legit starter in this league.

Either he just doesn't have the skills... or his head is too messed up and he's playing scared. Either way, it's a terrible sign.

- The minutes. Again... kinda tough to give undeserved minutes to a guy on a vet-laden team, making the team worse at least in the short term. As for those minutes, pro sports are a billions-dollars business. You either show off something or you're forgotten, leap-frogged, or even dismissed.

Look at a guy like Collin Gillespie. He played only about 600 minutes in his career coming into this season. But even in those minutes, he showed he had at least one "better than average" skill... he shot 40% and 43% on threes his first two seasons on decent volume. Ryan Nembhard has only played 200+ minutes in his career... and look at what he's doing.

Former college teammate, Reed Sheppard, might be the best (favorable) comp for Dillingham. He had a TERRIBLE rookie season, very comparable to Dillingham, even worse. He's shown he can be a good high-volume three point shooter this season... shooting 45% on pretty good volume. Granted, he was given more of an opportunity in year two in part because the starting PG went down. But in a results-driven industry, he's made himself more indispensable by being better than other players in at least one part of the game.

- Most telling of all as I also mentioned elsewhere... when the star of the organization (the guy who could get ANYONE fired) is championing for the journeyman, flawed 3rd stringer to play over the #8 pick in the draft... it's a very bad sign. What we think doesn't matter. What the coaches think... matters. What Anthony Edwards thinks... really matters. And obviously, there's not a lot of confidence on the Wolves sideline when it comes to their prized young PG.

- I feel for the kid. But at the same time, he's a millionaire many times over. And pro sports are littered with guys that simply didn't pan out like they were supposed to. It happens. And it may very well be happening with Rob Dillingham... at least on the Timberwolves.

I think he'd benefit greatly from getting run (and regaining confidence) on a team with a lot less at stake. A team that is more prepared to live with his development... and willing to take a chance on him figuring things out eventually despite short-term costs.

Abe - I just don’t think 10 sporadic minutes per game provides a solid basis for your definitive conclusions about what Rob can do right now. Look T the terrible stats Tyus Jones is putting up but note he’s averaging about the same number of minutes as Rob. The guy you accurately referred to as the best comparable for Rob didn’t gradually increase his minutes from 10 to 15 to 20 to 25 by proving himself at each stage to progressively increase his minutes this season. He began the season at 20+ minutes per game and is averaging 26. That’s a problem for this franchise in my view.

I disagree that this is a team that needs to “win now.” We’re a veteran team but largely a young veteran team. Most importantly, our two core vets, Ant and Jaden are 24 and 25 respectively. We’re as much a win next season or the season after as we are a win now team.

Finch has a bias against playing younger players and that will hurt the team in the long term but might also hurt us in the short term too

As I noted in my post, I’d go with Bones over Rob right now but that’s because of what I don’t know about Rob; it’s not based on an adequately informed conclusion that Rob isn’t close to the level needed to help this team right now. We simply don’t know enough to draw that conclusion.

[AbeVigodaLive]

As I’ve mentioned many times, we don’t know what we have in Rob because he hasn’t played enough minutes. If the organization refuses to given him the minutes necessary to fully evaluate him, as well as develop him, that’s understandable even though I think it’s a bad decision. I think he should get 25 minutes a game for a long stretch and let’s see where it takes us. It could pay off this season and, if not, it could pay dividends next season and beyond. However, if we don’t do that and we’re basing PG minutes on what we actually know about our three PGs, then Rob is the odd man out, in which case I think it’s Bones and Conley in that order barring some sort of trade for a PG.

I wouldn’t give up value for a mercurial 33 year old coming off a torn ACL. If I wanted to trade for a PG, I’d set my sights on Jrue Holiday and Derrick White. We could make a run at Tyus Jones who is having a terrible year and playing very little. We should be able to get him without giving up much. Maybe Conley for Jones. But honestly, I don’t think Tyus Jones or his equivalent moves the needle and makes this team a title contender. Jrue Holiday or Derrick White might be enough, depending on who we give up to get one of them.

For now, I think we should go with Bones as our main PG and see what happens unless and until Finch is ready to give Rob the run he needs to see whether he can take the next step his former backcourt mate at Kentucky has taken this season.

There are JJ McCarthy parallels here.

The Timberwolves are a veteran team... a perennial playoff team. Dillingham is just not even remotely close to the same level. He might get there eventually, but at what cost to the other players and organization? How much should they be expected to deal with such glaring flaws? Is there enough untapped potential to make it worthwhile?

At this point, Dillingham just hasn't earned more minutes. He's actually playing worse than last season. Can we point to one thing he does well? Not serviceably well... one thing he's better than most players at?

- It's not defense (although his scrappiness on that side might be the biggest surprise... and actually the best thing he has going right now). But it's universally accepted he's going to be below average defensively and targeted often. It's simply a size thing.
- It's not shooting (35/29/69 this season... 44/34/53 last year). There are so many moving parts on his jumper that can potentially limit improvement here. And he's been a poor finisher.
- It's not creating for others. Statistically, he's pedestrian in volume and has a 2/1 A/TO ratio both years. He might be a pretty solid lob passer, but most of his assists are just moving the ball to an open player who hits a jump shot. He's not creating guys open for easy looks. There's a subtle difference, but it's a BIG one.
- He's not very aggressive for a young, athletic guard. This is an eye test thing, but I think it's maybe most telling of all. Count how many times Dillingham is out ahead of the play with the ball -- often with a numbers advantage -- and yet instead of staying on the attack as ALL guards should do... the Wolves PG of the future often ends up passing the ball backwards to a trailer on the play. Even guys like Reid end up with the ball 30 feet from the hoop now facing a set defense instead of the young athletic guard leading a numbers-advantage opportunity. This is HUGE RED FLAG about Dillingham's chops as a potential legit starter in this league.

Either he just doesn't have the skills... or his head is too messed up and he's playing scared. Either way, it's a terrible sign.

- The minutes. Again... kinda tough to give undeserved minutes to a guy on a vet-laden team, making the team worse at least in the short term. As for those minutes, pro sports are a billions-dollars business. You either show off something or you're forgotten, leap-frogged, or even dismissed.

Look at a guy like Collin Gillespie. He played only about 600 minutes in his career coming into this season. But even in those minutes, he showed he had at least one "better than average" skill... he shot 40% and 43% on threes his first two seasons on decent volume. Ryan Nembhard has only played 200+ minutes in his career... and look at what he's doing.

Former college teammate, Reed Sheppard, might be the best (favorable) comp for Dillingham. He had a TERRIBLE rookie season, very comparable to Dillingham, even worse. He's shown he can be a good high-volume three point shooter this season... shooting 45% on pretty good volume. Granted, he was given more of an opportunity in year two in part because the starting PG went down. But in a results-driven industry, he's made himself more indispensable by being better than other players in at least one part of the game.

- Most telling of all as I also mentioned elsewhere... when the star of the organization (the guy who could get ANYONE fired) is championing for the journeyman, flawed 3rd stringer to play over the #8 pick in the draft... it's a very bad sign. What we think doesn't matter. What the coaches think... matters. What Anthony Edwards thinks... really matters. And obviously, there's not a lot of confidence on the Wolves sideline when it comes to their prized young PG.

- I feel for the kid. But at the same time, he's a millionaire many times over. And pro sports are littered with guys that simply didn't pan out like they were supposed to. It happens. And it may very well be happening with Rob Dillingham... at least on the Timberwolves.

I think he'd benefit greatly from getting run (and regaining confidence) on a team with a lot less at stake. A team that is more prepared to live with his development... and willing to take a chance on him figuring things out eventually despite short-term costs.

Abe - I just don’t think 10 sporadic minutes per game provides a solid basis for your definitive conclusions about what Rob can do right now. Look T the terrible stats Tyus Jones is putting up but note he’s averaging about the same number of minutes as Rob. The guy you accurately referred to as the best comparable for Rob didn’t gradually increase his minutes from 10 to 15 to 20 to 25 by proving himself at each stage to progressively increase his minutes this season. He began the season at 20+ minutes per game and is averaging 26. That’s a problem for this franchise in my view.

I disagree that this is a team that needs to “win now.” We’re a veteran team but largely a young veteran team. Most importantly, our two core vets, Ant and Jaden are 24 and 25 respectively. We’re as much a win next season or the season after as we are a win now team.

Finch has a bias against playing younger players and that will hurt the team in the long term but might also hurt us in the short term too

As I noted in my post, I’d go with Bones over Rob right now but that’s because of what I don’t know about Rob; it’s not based on an adequately informed conclusion that Rob isn’t close to the level needed to help this team right now. We simply don’t know enough to draw that conclusion.

I very rarely take a pointed stance (probably to a fault). And I've held back on Dillingham... for the most part.

But I'm 98% certain that he doesn't have the NBA chops to justify his pick... I'm also very skeptical that he has the chops to even justify a place in the rotation for a legit playoff team. The stats tell me this... multiple decades of watching NBA basketball (especially PGs) tell me this.

But don't take my word for it... Chris Finch seems to agree. And Anthony Edwards seems to agree.



[Note: Seriously, the star player championing for Bones Hyland over Rob Dillingham is a HUGE red flag.]

[AbeVigodaLive]

So if the Timberwolves want to go all in on good vibes for THIS season, go for Holiday and hope his calf strain is a fluke. But I think there's a legit chance we'd be looking at Mike Conley v2.0 with more injuries and for a lot more money in a couple of seasons.

Would this be a net bad thing tho? How would you feel if I came in here and said, "hey I de-aged Mike 3 years!"

It's kicking the can down the road in terms of viable PG play, but we all feel like we had a real starter there for at least a few years. At which point, maybe Ant is really ready to step into primary playmaking.

I don't love Randle for Jrue straight up, but it would be tough to work in another player because of the salary.

The biggest issue I have with a trade like this is:
1- you're betting on synergy being better for team overall then raw talent (Randle is a better player right now)

2- without another move Naz would become a starter and I don't like that idea. I really like him in a role as a super 6, not a starter. I think he's playing better right now than he's given credit for but he shouldn't start for this team

The rub between Jrue now and Conley then...

Conley signed a contract for less than $10M in year 3.
Holiday will make $37M in year 3.



[Note: To be fair, the Wolves had to add a 4th year for Conley to get him at $10M... while they could let Holiday retire after three years.]

[FNG]

As I’ve mentioned many times, we don’t know what we have in Rob because he hasn’t played enough minutes. If the organization refuses to given him the minutes necessary to fully evaluate him, as well as develop him, that’s understandable even though I think it’s a bad decision. I think he should get 25 minutes a game for a long stretch and let’s see where it takes us. It could pay off this season and, if not, it could pay dividends next season and beyond. However, if we don’t do that and we’re basing PG minutes on what we actually know about our three PGs, then Rob is the odd man out, in which case I think it’s Bones and Conley in that order barring some sort of trade for a PG.

I wouldn’t give up value for a mercurial 33 year old coming off a torn ACL. If I wanted to trade for a PG, I’d set my sights on Jrue Holiday and Derrick White. We could make a run at Tyus Jones who is having a terrible year and playing very little. We should be able to get him without giving up much. Maybe Conley for Jones. But honestly, I don’t think Tyus Jones or his equivalent moves the needle and makes this team a title contender. Jrue Holiday or Derrick White might be enough, depending on who we give up to get one of them.

For now, I think we should go with Bones as our main PG and see what happens unless and until Finch is ready to give Rob the run he needs to see whether he can take the next step his former backcourt mate at Kentucky has taken this season.

There are JJ McCarthy parallels here.

The Timberwolves are a veteran team... a perennial playoff team. Dillingham is just not even remotely close to the same level. He might get there eventually, but at what cost to the other players and organization? How much should they be expected to deal with such glaring flaws? Is there enough untapped potential to make it worthwhile?

At this point, Dillingham just hasn't earned more minutes. He's actually playing worse than last season. Can we point to one thing he does well? Not serviceably well... one thing he's better than most players at?

- It's not defense (although his scrappiness on that side might be the biggest surprise... and actually the best thing he has going right now). But it's universally accepted he's going to be below average defensively and targeted often. It's simply a size thing.
- It's not shooting (35/29/69 this season... 44/34/53 last year). There are so many moving parts on his jumper that can potentially limit improvement here. And he's been a poor finisher.
- It's not creating for others. Statistically, he's pedestrian in volume and has a 2/1 A/TO ratio both years. He might be a pretty solid lob passer, but most of his assists are just moving the ball to an open player who hits a jump shot. He's not creating guys open for easy looks. There's a subtle difference, but it's a BIG one.
- He's not very aggressive for a young, athletic guard. This is an eye test thing, but I think it's maybe most telling of all. Count how many times Dillingham is out ahead of the play with the ball -- often with a numbers advantage -- and yet instead of staying on the attack as ALL guards should do... the Wolves PG of the future often ends up passing the ball backwards to a trailer on the play. Even guys like Reid end up with the ball 30 feet from the hoop now facing a set defense instead of the young athletic guard leading a numbers-advantage opportunity. This is HUGE RED FLAG about Dillingham's chops as a potential legit starter in this league.

Either he just doesn't have the skills... or his head is too messed up and he's playing scared. Either way, it's a terrible sign.

- The minutes. Again... kinda tough to give undeserved minutes to a guy on a vet-laden team, making the team worse at least in the short term. As for those minutes, pro sports are a billions-dollars business. You either show off something or you're forgotten, leap-frogged, or even dismissed.

Look at a guy like Collin Gillespie. He played only about 600 minutes in his career coming into this season. But even in those minutes, he showed he had at least one "better than average" skill... he shot 40% and 43% on threes his first two seasons on decent volume. Ryan Nembhard has only played 200+ minutes in his career... and look at what he's doing.

Former college teammate, Reed Sheppard, might be the best (favorable) comp for Dillingham. He had a TERRIBLE rookie season, very comparable to Dillingham, even worse. He's shown he can be a good high-volume three point shooter this season... shooting 45% on pretty good volume. Granted, he was given more of an opportunity in year two in part because the starting PG went down. But in a results-driven industry, he's made himself more indispensable by being better than other players in at least one part of the game.

- Most telling of all as I also mentioned elsewhere... when the star of the organization (the guy who could get ANYONE fired) is championing for the journeyman, flawed 3rd stringer to play over the #8 pick in the draft... it's a very bad sign. What we think doesn't matter. What the coaches think... matters. What Anthony Edwards thinks... really matters. And obviously, there's not a lot of confidence on the Wolves sideline when it comes to their prized young PG.

- I feel for the kid. But at the same time, he's a millionaire many times over. And pro sports are littered with guys that simply didn't pan out like they were supposed to. It happens. And it may very well be happening with Rob Dillingham... at least on the Timberwolves.

I think he'd benefit greatly from getting run (and regaining confidence) on a team with a lot less at stake. A team that is more prepared to live with his development... and willing to take a chance on him figuring things out eventually despite short-term costs.

From a pure basketball perspective, he came out of school too early. He probably needed to play at Kentucky for another year or two. But I get the economics of it in terms of him wanting to cash in on his lottery ticket. But even that may bite him in the ass if his lack of readiness kills his chances at a second deal!

The team he should go to with much less at stake and willing to ride out his development is right under our noses. They are called the Iowa Wolves. But for some stupid reason it's taboo to send former lottery picks there for anything more than a token game or two. Like I said earlier, he may end up there under much more humbling circumstances like Killian Hayes did.

Q, I completely agree that Rob might really benefit from some time in Iowa. But I disagree that it's taboo to send former lottery picks down. 6 of the 14 2023 lottery picks have spent time in the G League, and at least Devin Carter and Johnny Davis are there now. Might it have a negative impact on Rob's confidence? Maybe, but no more than having Bones Hyland replace you in the rotation. I was supportive of the Wolves keeping Rob with the big club last season hoping practice time would develop him, but it hasn't worked out. Playing 35 minutes a night is what he needs now.