KAT trade ideas

[AbeVigodaLive]

The article linked below pulled into my feed. According to the author's final conclusion..."Ultimately, the Knicks should probably pass on a Towns trade. They’ve been stocking up assets for years for an A-tier star and Towns simply hasn’t proven himself that, even if he might be an interesting fit." Ouch.

Link: https://www.yahoo.com/sports/knicks-try ... 58364.html

Well, I guess the good news is that the Wolves don't necessarily need KAT to be an A-tier star if Anthony Edwards continues his ascent.

I think the concern for me is that I'm seeing more and more links/stories from a national lens that showcase KAT as a good, but flawed player. We know that to be true as well. But I think KAT has something better to give us. He was throwing up over 5 VORP at age 21, 22 and 23. The last four years have been a mixed bag partially due to him missing games. He's really in his prime years right now. So while you say (and I don't disagree) that we need Edwards to continue his ascent. KAT should still be the guy. And I think he can...assuming he gets healthy and humble. I want to see him go "Rocky III" and get back the eye of the tiger. We a couple stars to go anywhere in the playoffs.

The rub is... can he be that efficient again if he's driven off the block by Gobert?

What made Towns so great is that he had a very good post game... AND... three point stroke. You take one of those away and you have a much lower ceiling and basically group Towns with other good perimeter players without the same typical attributes.

I've mentioned many times that I never wanted Towns to move to the 4 offensively. If he wasn't good enough defensively to hold up as a starting 5 on a great team... so be it. Trade him for top value.

But don't take away what made him so good without offsetting it with something else. You're only hurting his value by declaring "we don't think he's good enough as a 5... but the stats don't show that he's elite as a 4."

Ooops.

[Lipoli390]

Well, I guess the good news is that the Wolves don't necessarily need KAT to be an A-tier star if Anthony Edwards continues his ascent.

I think the concern for me is that I'm seeing more and more links/stories from a national lens that showcase KAT as a good, but flawed player. We know that to be true as well. But I think KAT has something better to give us. He was throwing up over 5 VORP at age 21, 22 and 23. The last four years have been a mixed bag partially due to him missing games. He's really in his prime years right now. So while you say (and I don't disagree) that we need Edwards to continue his ascent. KAT should still be the guy. And I think he can...assuming he gets healthy and humble. I want to see him go "Rocky III" and get back the eye of the tiger. We a couple stars to go anywhere in the playoffs.

The rub is... can he be that efficient again if he's driven off the block by Gobert?

What made Towns so great is that he had a very good post game... AND... three point stroke. You take one of those away and you have a much lower ceiling and basically group Towns with other good perimeter players without the same typical attributes.

I've mentioned many times that I never wanted Towns to move to the 4 offensively. If he wasn't good enough defensively to hold up as a starting 5 on a great team... so be it. Trade him for top value.

But don't take away what made him so good without offsetting it with something else. You're only hurting his value by declaring "we don't think he's good enough as a 5... but the stats don't show that he's elite as a 4."

Ooops.

Great post, Abe. You nailed it. The Gobert deal ultimately diminishes KAT’s value both to the Wolves and as a trade asset because it takes away what makes him elite offensively. It also reduces his rebounding numbers because he and Rudy essentially compete for the same rebounds - which is why the Wolves rebounding numbers weren’t up from the previous season when Rudy and KAT were on the court together. Their combined rebounding isn’t additive.

[Carlos Danger]

I think the concern for me is that I'm seeing more and more links/stories from a national lens that showcase KAT as a good, but flawed player. We know that to be true as well. But I think KAT has something better to give us. He was throwing up over 5 VORP at age 21, 22 and 23. The last four years have been a mixed bag partially due to him missing games. He's really in his prime years right now. So while you say (and I don't disagree) that we need Edwards to continue his ascent. KAT should still be the guy. And I think he can...assuming he gets healthy and humble. I want to see him go "Rocky III" and get back the eye of the tiger. We a couple stars to go anywhere in the playoffs.

The rub is... can he be that efficient again if he's driven off the block by Gobert?

What made Towns so great is that he had a very good post game... AND... three point stroke. You take one of those away and you have a much lower ceiling and basically group Towns with other good perimeter players without the same typical attributes.

I've mentioned many times that I never wanted Towns to move to the 4 offensively. If he wasn't good enough defensively to hold up as a starting 5 on a great team... so be it. Trade him for top value.

But don't take away what made him so good without offsetting it with something else. You're only hurting his value by declaring "we don't think he's good enough as a 5... but the stats don't show that he's elite as a 4."

Ooops.

Great post, Abe. You nailed it. The Gobert deal ultimately diminishes KAT’s value both to the Wolves and as a trade asset because it takes away what makes him elite offensively. It also reduces his rebounding numbers because he and Rudy essentially compete for the same rebounds - which is why the Wolves rebounding numbers weren’t up from the previous season when Rudy and KAT were on the court together. Their combined rebounding isn’t additive.

Fair points. But I have a question. I barely follow college basketball and a quick Google search didn't give me the answer. What did position did KAT play in college? I know he played with Willie Cauley-Stein. I know that team was very successful. I know Stein is 7 foot and played Center in NBA. So, I'm assuming Stein was the center and KAT was PF at Kentucky. If my assumptions are correct, then wouldn't that be similar to playing next to Gobert?

I'm not saying that's what TC was looking at/going by. I'm just thinking that guys like TC get paid a shit ton of money to evaluate and assemble talent. There must be something that he's looking at. I assumed all along that adding Gobert was to simply take away some of the defense responsibilities from Towns and let him just be a scorer. Was that how it was in his college year? Again - I ask not to be a wise guy - I really don't follow college so have no idea.

[Q-is-here]

KAT and Cauley-Stein basically played like Twin Towers. Back then it wasn't all about pace and space, especially in the college game. Kentucky went undefeated until they got to the Final Four.

KAT took a total of 8 3-pointers at Kentucky, which is absolutely incredible when you think how good of a natural stroke he has. Coach Cal basically forced him to play like a big because he felt he would have such an advantage versus college competition, which means KAT was never able to flash his perimeter game which a lot of scouts that followed him in high school knew about. That's why a lot of us were so pleasantly surprised to watch KAT as a rookie routinely swish 20-footers like it was nothing (this is back in the day when Flip would run plays for long 2s. In KAT's case, they were actually pretty good shots!).

I really don't want KAT posting up. These days when he does it seems to result in a lot of turnovers and he gets easily flustered by doubles. Where Gobert has inhibited KAT to a degree is on his dribble drive game, which he really took to another level the year before last.

I had been BEGGING for a legit Center/paint protector for years to take some of the defensive pressure (and foul issues) off KAT. But in hindsight, Connelly over-rotated by trading for the gold-plated solution versus something less costly, yet still effective for 20-25 MPG (ahem, Walker Kessler...again, that's hindsight, but still. Ouch).

[Lipoli390]

The rub is... can he be that efficient again if he's driven off the block by Gobert?

What made Towns so great is that he had a very good post game... AND... three point stroke. You take one of those away and you have a much lower ceiling and basically group Towns with other good perimeter players without the same typical attributes.

I've mentioned many times that I never wanted Towns to move to the 4 offensively. If he wasn't good enough defensively to hold up as a starting 5 on a great team... so be it. Trade him for top value.

But don't take away what made him so good without offsetting it with something else. You're only hurting his value by declaring "we don't think he's good enough as a 5... but the stats don't show that he's elite as a 4."

Ooops.

Great post, Abe. You nailed it. The Gobert deal ultimately diminishes KAT’s value both to the Wolves and as a trade asset because it takes away what makes him elite offensively. It also reduces his rebounding numbers because he and Rudy essentially compete for the same rebounds - which is why the Wolves rebounding numbers weren’t up from the previous season when Rudy and KAT were on the court together. Their combined rebounding isn’t additive.

Fair points. But I have a question. I barely follow college basketball and a quick Google search didn't give me the answer. What did position did KAT play in college? I know he played with Willie Cauley-Stein. I know that team was very successful. I know Stein is 7 foot and played Center in NBA. So, I'm assuming Stein was the center and KAT was PF at Kentucky. If my assumptions are correct, then wouldn't that be similar to playing next to Gobert?

I'm not saying that's what TC was looking at/going by. I'm just thinking that guys like TC get paid a shit ton of money to evaluate and assemble talent. There must be something that he's looking at. I assumed all along that adding Gobert was to simply take away some of the defense responsibilities from Towns and let him just be a scorer. Was that how it was in his college year? Again - I ask not to be a wise guy - I really don't follow college so have no idea.

Nearly every draft analysis listed KAT as a center and Flip referred to him as a center when he drafted him. He only averaged 21 minutes per game at Kentucky. Cal used a platoon system that typically had KAT playing without WCS although they played together sometimes. But KAT wasn’t nearly the player then that he’s become. His low post game wasn’t very well developed and he never took threes. You really can’t take much from what KAT did in his 21 minutes per game at Kentucky. What matters is what KAT is now and Abe’s description is spot on. Gobert’s presence limits part of KAT’s offensive game and as a result he diminishes what makes KAT elite offensively - namely his ability to score both inside and out, which makes him a really tough matchup and allows him to score so efficiently. Meanwhile, KAT’s not as quick now as he used to be, which diminishes his already limited ability to guard modern athletic PFs. Yes, TC obviously thought the two would fit well together. But remember that the vast majority of NBA minds did not agree.

I understand why TC wants to run it back to fully play out his Rudy/KAT experiment. But I continue to believe it’s a mistake that will result in another wasted season - wasted in the sense that every season should be devoted to building a team around Ant and Jaden that maximizes their talents rather than experimenting with a two-big combo that runs counter to where the League is at, was panned by most NBA experts and doesn’t make sense if you really think about it. I get wanting to help cover for KAT’s defensive weaknesses. The right type of player for that role would be someone like Aaron Gordon - an athletic, mobile PF. We simply needed a bigger, better version of Vanderbilt, not a second center with limited mobility who can’t score from more than one foot away.

I can envision things working with Gobert as our center, but only if paired with a PF who can defend in space and get the rebounds that Rudy doesn’t get. I think KAT meshes better than Rudy with Ant and Jaden. That’s one reason why I’d rather trade Rudy. However, the main problem as I see it is the Rudy/KAT combo, which is why I’d settle for trading KAT as my second choice. I might be more content going another year with the KAT/Rudy experiment if not for the luxury tax cliff that lies ahead in 2024. That cliff combined with the counterintuitive nature of the KAT/Rudy pairing and the need to focus on building around the Ant/Jaden combo makes a compelling case for trading one or the other.

[Coolbreeze44]

As I feared as long as 2 years ago, it sounds like we missed the boat on dealing KAT. We knew of his flaws back then, but now the whole NBA landscape knows them. Missed opportunity, but you know, Wolves.

[FNG]

The rub is... can he be that efficient again if he's driven off the block by Gobert?

What made Towns so great is that he had a very good post game... AND... three point stroke. You take one of those away and you have a much lower ceiling and basically group Towns with other good perimeter players without the same typical attributes.

I've mentioned many times that I never wanted Towns to move to the 4 offensively. If he wasn't good enough defensively to hold up as a starting 5 on a great team... so be it. Trade him for top value.

But don't take away what made him so good without offsetting it with something else. You're only hurting his value by declaring "we don't think he's good enough as a 5... but the stats don't show that he's elite as a 4."

Ooops.

Great post, Abe. You nailed it. The Gobert deal ultimately diminishes KAT’s value both to the Wolves and as a trade asset because it takes away what makes him elite offensively. It also reduces his rebounding numbers because he and Rudy essentially compete for the same rebounds - which is why the Wolves rebounding numbers weren’t up from the previous season when Rudy and KAT were on the court together. Their combined rebounding isn’t additive.

Fair points. But I have a question. I barely follow college basketball and a quick Google search didn't give me the answer. What did position did KAT play in college? I know he played with Willie Cauley-Stein. I know that team was very successful. I know Stein is 7 foot and played Center in NBA. So, I'm assuming Stein was the center and KAT was PF at Kentucky. If my assumptions are correct, then wouldn't that be similar to playing next to Gobert?

I'm not saying that's what TC was looking at/going by. I'm just thinking that guys like TC get paid a shit ton of money to evaluate and assemble talent. There must be something that he's looking at. I assumed all along that adding Gobert was to simply take away some of the defense responsibilities from Towns and let him just be a scorer. Was that how it was in his college year? Again - I ask not to be a wise guy - I really don't follow college so have no idea.

To your point, Anthony, there were two players on that Kentucky team who were pure centers (WCS and Dakari Johnson), Those two centers averaged a combined 42 MPG that season, and it's not likely they were on the court much at the same time (Calipari's not that dumb!). So it stands to reason that almost all of KAT's minutes in college were at the PF position. One of the reasons I was so excited about drafting KAT #1 was that he was called upon to defend quicker PFs almost every minute he was on the court...and still, he was considered an elite defender coming into the draft despite not being able to defend the opponent's center most of the time. And then he showed pre-draft that he had the ability to be be an outstanding 3-point shooter...something he had not shown in college. I recognized that he was going to come into the NBA as a center, but his college experience told me that he could also thrive at the 4, offensively and defensively. I guess that's the main reason I was excited about TC acquiring Rudy. KAT came out of college with the reputation of an elite defender, and I think that was because of his 4.3 blocks per 40 minutes. So, KAT has played most of his minutes in the NBA at center, with less than stellar results on defense. We didn't get to see KAT and Towns together enough last season to evaluate how effective they might be defensively, but based on KAT's success as a defensive PF in college and his relative lack of success as a defensive center in the pros, I have some optimism about how effective our Twin Towers could become on defense.

[Lipoli390]

Interesting take, FNG. I just don’t see the KAT of today being effective defending today’s PFs. They’re too quick and athletic and KAT is slower than he used to be. There are a lot of really talented NBA PFs today. In contrast, there really aren’t many talented centers. I’d rather have KAT guarding the vast majority of NBA centers than guarding the vast majority of the League’s PFs.

Here’s an interesting comparison of KAT and Rudy against the League’s best offensive center: In 21 games over his career against Rudy, Jokic has the following offensive stats: 20.1 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 7.7 assists, while shooting 55.6% from the field and 37.9% from behind the arc. In contrast, Jokic has the following less impressive offensive stats in 22 games against KAT: 18.6 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 6.0 assists while shooting 49.6% from the field, and 26% from behind the arc.

Here’s a comparison of KAT and Rudy against the League’s second best offensive center: In 10 career games against KAT, Embiid has averaged 26.4 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 3.2 assists, while shooting 47.7% from the field, and 46.9% from behind the arc. Not great, but KAT has held Embiid’s points, rebounds and assists below his career averages and significantly below his averages the past several years. Meanwhile, in 9 games against Rudy, Embiid has averaged 25.9 points, 11.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists while shooting 45.5% from the field and 41.2% from behind the arc. That isn’t terrible, but it’s not significantly better than KAT.

I’m not arguing that KAT is an equal or better defender compared to Rudy. In truth, Rudy is a much better team defender than KAT. My only point is that KAT doesn’t have particularly pronounced defensive problems against centers. In fact, he’s faired pretty well against the League’s two best offensive centers. I think KAT is much more challenged trying to defend the many athletic PFs in space. That’s why the pairing with Rudy is a bad one defensively. What KAT did or didn’t do 8 years ago in 21.1 minutes per game in college doesn’t offer much insight into how well KAT pairs defensively with Rudy now for 35 minutes a game in the NBA.

[FNG]

Some good data in your post, Lip. And I'll admit that my take that KAT's success defending (mostly) PFs in college can translate to the NBA was not supported by the defensive rating the Rudy/KAT pairing had for the season. I wonder though if the entire season data is unfairly impacted by the clumsy start the pairing had last season...they looked terrible the first 20 games of the season both on offense and defense. My eye test told me that they looked very effective together though the final 9 games of the season and in the playoffs. Aaron Gordon is the kind of quick PF that you might think KAT would struggle with. But if you look at Gordon's playoff stats, KAT defended him as well as anyone in his four series. In fact, I would argue that Rudy/KAT defended Jokic/Gordon as well as any tandem in their four series. (My opinion is our biggest issue on defense in the Denver series was the drop off in defensive effectiveness on Murray from Jaden to NAW). KAT has shown me he has the quickness to defend the perimeter against PF's like Gordon, as well as providing intimidating interior defense when paired with Rudy. Time will tell of course, but I'm more comfortable with KAT as a stretch 4 rather than center.

[Q-is-here]

Some good data in your post, Lip. And I'll admit that my take that KAT's success defending (mostly) PFs in college can translate to the NBA was not supported by the defensive rating the Rudy/KAT pairing had for the season. I wonder though if the entire season data is unfairly impacted by the clumsy start the pairing had last season...they looked terrible the first 20 games of the season both on offense and defense. My eye test told me that they looked very effective together though the final 9 games of the season and in the playoffs. Aaron Gordon is the kind of quick PF that you might think KAT would struggle with. But if you look at Gordon's playoff stats, KAT defended him as well as anyone in his four series. In fact, I would argue that Rudy/KAT defended Jokic/Gordon as well as any tandem in their four series. (My opinion is our biggest issue on defense in the Denver series was the drop off in defensive effectiveness on Murray from Jaden to NAW). KAT has shown me he has the quickness to defend the perimeter against PF's like Gordon, as well as providing intimidating interior defense when paired with Rudy. Time will tell of course, but I'm more comfortable with KAT as a stretch 4 rather than center.

I don't really think of Gordon as quick....My main concern with KAT as a defensive 4 isn't necessarily his ability to guard guys one on one or even switch onto a guard on occasion. The biggest issue is transition defense and rotating to shooters on the perimeter with good closeouts, two things Centers typically don't have to worry as much about.