Minnesota Sports Forum

I'll weigh in on the ROY discussion. I think it's wide open right now. CBS Sports ranked our guy Edwards the leader a couple days ago, but also had very positive comments about Ball and Haliburton. Ball has had a couple really good games in a row, and if he keeps it up, he will crack the starting lineup and improve his ROY chances. But my leader is still Tyrese Haliburton, who actually has already moved into the starting five and continues to be far and away the most effective 2-way rookie.

I have a feeling Ball is still going to find a way to self-destruct. So I'm going to continue to cheer for Edwards, but Haliburton is the real deal and the most likely ROY in my opinion.

FNG wrote:I'll weigh in on the ROY discussion. I think it's wide open right now. CBS Sports ranked our guy Edwards the leader a couple days ago, but also had very positive comments about Ball and Haliburton. Ball has had a couple really good games in a row, and if he keeps it up, he will crack the starting lineup and improve his ROY chances. But my leader is still Tyrese Haliburton, who actually has already moved into the starting five and continues to be far and away the most effective 2-way rookie.

I have a feeling Ball is still going to find a way to self-destruct. So I'm going to continue to cheer for Edwards, but Haliburton is the real deal and the most likely ROY in my opinion.

I was really down on Ball leading up to the draft. I didn't even have him ranked in my top 10 if I recall. But I'm already convinced that I was way wrong about him. I don't think he'll self destruct. I think a lot of us, myself included, looked at him through a really unfair lens, distorted by the antics of his father, his seemingly aloof personality and reports about his draft interview. Yes, his shooting percentages were bad in his short pre-NBA pro career, but he was also a really good rebounder and he has elite playmaking skills and feel for the game. I also think there's a fierce competitor behind his seemingly aloof personality. So I don't think he'll self-destruct. I think he'll continue to get better and win ROY honors at the end of the season.

I sill like Edwards so far and I think I will turn out to have been wrong about him. I was worried about his shooting inefficiency and reports that he lacked competitive zeal for the game, a la Wiggins. I'm still worried about his shooting, which remains as inefficient as it was in college, but I'm no longer worried about him being the second comings of Wiggins. He has a competitive edge, focus and high-quality ball-handling we never saw from Wiggins.

Ball has been a lot better then I expected but once again super small sample size with his shot. He has still been Dlo bad on D

kekgeek1 wrote:Ball has been a lot better then I expected but once again super small sample size with his shot. He has still been Dlo bad on D

I guess I haven't seen enough of Ball on defense to know if he truly is as bad as D-Lo, but he seems to be much better on-ball than D-Lo. He certainly has the physical tools to be a plus defender and he seems to work hard out there, but he has seemed a little unaware of what's going on away from his man the couple times I have seen him.

I agree that his shooting sample size is super small- there's no reason to believe he won't revert to the below average shooter he was before.

Bogdan Bogdanovic out with a fractured knee. Thomas Bryant and Markel Fultz out with torn ACLs. Kyrie Irving out under mysterious circumstances for what's being called "personal reasons." Teams playing with 8 players and games being postponed because of Covid. Games being played in empty arenas with fake crowd noise blaring over the loudspeakers. This is indeed a very strange season so far with more weirdness undoubtedly to come.

How do you stop Ball? I see him continuously driving and breaking down defenses, and either finishing at the hoop or finding the open man. Ball is too quick and has an amazing handle.

When was the last time someone with the trifecta of elite height, handle, and quickness self implode? I can't think of anyone that comes to mind.

And yes, pre-draft, I would not have drafted Ball. I was wrong.

FloriDuh wrote:How do you stop Ball? I see him continuously driving and breaking down defenses, and either finishing at the hoop or finding the open man. Ball is too quick and has an amazing handle.

When was the last time someone with the trifecta of elite height, handle, and quickness self implode? I can't think of anyone that comes to mind.

And yes, pre-draft, I would not have drafted Ball. I was wrong.

It matters about his shot. He is knocking down his jumper what is making teams respect him out there. We'll see though if he continues his good shooting.

kekgeek1 wrote:Ball has been a lot better then I expected but once again super small sample size with his shot. He has still been Dlo bad on D

I don't know about the eye test... but the advanced stats love LaMelo Ball on defense.
- He's at +1.3 DBPM.
- Russell is at -2.3 DBPM.

I don't even know what that stat tells us for certain. But I know that gap is significant. Let's take a closer look at some advanced stats for four rookies often discussed:

Edwards: -3.2 OBPM / -4.3 DBPM / 9.6 PER / (-0.3 VORP).

Wiseman: -4.3 OBPM / -1.0 DBPM / 13.7 PER / (-0.2 VORP)

Ball: +3.1 OBPM / +1.3 DBPM / 19.9 PER / (+0.4 VORP)

Haliburton: +4.0 OBPM / 0.0 DBPM / 20.3 PER / (+0.3 VORP)

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I don't know how things will shake out with these guys' careers. But so far... Ball and Haliburton have separated themselves from everybody else -- and advanced stats are especially harsh on Edwards. Maybe it has to do with each being more all-around players right now vs. a guy like Edwards who's primarily just a scorer on a horrific (without Towns) defensive team.

Obviously, we should expect growing pains from a young kid like Edwards. And we're seeing them. So far, he's been an inefficient gunner (who's done most of his damage vs. other teams' 2nd and 3rd stringers)... with a few flashes of next-level passing here and there.




Note: Edwards' ranks in a few volume stats with that group:

FG% - 4th
3FG% - 4th
Rebounds - 3rd
Assists - 3rd
TOs - 3rd
FGAs - 1st
PPG - 1st

AbeVigodaLive wrote:

kekgeek1 wrote:Ball has been a lot better then I expected but once again super small sample size with his shot. He has still been Dlo bad on D

I don't know about the eye test... but the advanced stats love LaMelo Ball on defense.
- He's at +1.3 DBPM.
- Russell is at -2.3 DBPM.

I don't even know what that stat tells us for certain. But I know that gap is significant. Let's take a closer look at some advanced stats for four rookies often discussed:

Edwards: -3.2 OBPM / -4.3 DBPM / 9.6 PER / (-0.3 VORP).

Wiseman: -4.3 OBPM / -1.0 DBPM / 13.7 PER / (-0.2 VORP)

Ball: +3.1 OBPM / +1.3 DBPM / 19.9 PER / (+0.4 VORP)

Haliburton: +4.0 OBPM / 0.0 DBPM / 20.3 PER / (+0.3 VORP)

_______________________________________

I don't know how things will shake out with these guys' careers. But so far... Ball and Haliburton have separated themselves from everybody else -- and advanced stats are especially harsh on Edwards. Maybe it has to do with each being more all-around players right now vs. a guy like Edwards who's primarily just a scorer on a horrific (without Towns) defensive team.

Obviously, we should expect growing pains from a young kid like Edwards. And we're seeing them. So far, he's been an inefficient gunner (who's done most of his damage vs. other teams' 2nd and 3rd stringers)... with a few flashes of next-level passing here and there.




Note: Edwards' ranks in a few volume stats with that group:

FG% - 4th
3FG% - 4th
Rebounds - 3rd
Assists - 3rd
TOs - 3rd
FGAs - 1st
PPG - 1st

You know what these advanced numbers tell me? That they are absolute bullshit. There is no way in hell Ball has been individually better defensively than Haliburton.

It seems to me our worst fears with Edwards have not come true, but perhaps our 2nd worst fears have in the sense that statistically he is playing almost exactly as he did at Georgia - high usage, low efficiency, horrible On/Off and defensive metrics.

I know for a lot of folks Edwards is still in the honeymoon phase, so we tend to overvalue the good things we see and pass off the bad things we see as "well, he's still young". That's fine. But not everyone improves or changes their stripes. I'd still like to see us package him up in trade if we can, but obviously Rosas may believe that Edwards + whatever else is asked for (including additional future picks) is too high of a price to pay.