Minnesota Sports Forum

lipoli390 wrote:This the key point from the article:

"Draft picks are also coveted trade assets, and dealing so many first-round picks now limits bigger moves that could be made in the future. Teams cannot deal picks in consecutive years, and with multiple protected picks owed to other teams limits their ability to include them in prospective trades.

Again, if you're not able to draft affordable young talent, or trade for players you likely wouldn't be able to bring in via free agency, how are you improving the roster? At that point you're relying a lot on player development and hoping to improve enough to become an attractive destination."

Nothing in Payne's numbers from 4 years of college or his D-League stint suggest he was worth giving up a future 1st. And that's before you factor in Payne's lung condition and age.

Not saying I disagree (although I'm in the Coolbreaz camp of "let's at least give the kid a chance before throwing him under the bus), but Payne did improve dramatically in college, and although I completely agree that trading the first loses trade flexibility...all that really means in the long run is that we will need to get a 3rd team involved in a trade if we need another first to include.

The more I think about that Payne trade, the less i like it. Payne failed not only to crack the rotation in Atlanta, his failure to dominate the D-League is a bad sign for someone who is truly NBA caliber. All contortions aside, the Hawks would not have made this deal if they saw something in Payne. It's clear they were happy to get a reset on that draft pick. Certainly, guys lose value once they are converted from pick to actual player, and eight months with no production later, Payne should not have cost full price like this.

In the meantime, the Wolves paid out a future first rounder for a guy who seems unlikely to provide more value over the next three years than say, Jeff Adrien, or any number of other free agents that would not have cost a draft pick.

The further problem here is that it really ties up assets for the Wolves, who now have very little flexibility to include a pick in a larger trade until the required pick is conveyed to Atlanta. Overall just a poor value play in my view.

That's from Canis Hoopus, but it basically emphasizes my thoughts on the trade. This move by Flip just came out of left field.

lipoli390 wrote:Nothing in Payne's numbers from 4 years of college or his D-League stint suggest he was worth giving up a future 1st. And that's before you factor in Payne's lung condition and age.

I agree with the D-league part but not about his college stats. He played quite low amount of minutes even in his senior year (28.1) and that really affected his stats.

If we check his per 40-minutes stats, they look really impressive:
12-13: 16.4 pts, 11.8 rbs, 2.0 blks and .63 TS%
13-14: 23.4 pts, 10.3 rbs, 1.9 asts, 1.3 blks, .607 TS% .423 3P% with 4.8 attempts per 40 minutes

I would say that his senior year scoring numbers are near elite level. Those numbers are better than some of the best scoring last year lottery picks had. For example Jabari Parker had 25.0 pts per 40 minutes with .558 TS% and Julius Randle had 19.4 pts per 40 minutes with .567 TS%.

We can also compare those numbers to college numbers of some current NBA top scoring bigs and Payne's senior year numbers look even more impressive. Nikola Vucevic had 19.4 pts per 40 minutes with .578 TS% in his junior year, Al Horford had 19.0 pts per 40 minutes with .624 TS% in his junior year, Greg Monroe had 18.9 pts per 40 minutes with .589 TS% in his sophmore year and LaMarcus Aldridge had 17.8 pts per 40 minutes with .589 TS% in his sophmore year

Other elite skill that Payne had in college was his 3-point shooting. I think that last big that had as good 3-point shooting year than Payne's senior year was Ryan Anderson. (in terms of accuracy and volume) Ryan Anderson shot in his sophmore year 3-pointers .41 accuracy and 5.8 3-point attempts per 40 minutes.

I somehow understand your concern related to Payne's rebounding and block numbers but they were still not that bad if we compare them to for example Jahlil Okafor's numbers. Payne had career DRB% 21.3 and BLK% 5.8 while Okafor has currently DRB% 19.0 and BLK% 4.6.

Payne's DRB% in last two years (23.9 and 22.9) is also quite comparable to numbers for some other bigs that stayed longer in college as well. Dieng's had DRB% 22.1 in his last year, Mason Plumlee had 24.5 and 23.3 in his last two years and Vucevic had 23.2 and 25.6 in his last two years. All those players have been successful in rebounding also in NBA.

I understand that since Payne is older than most of other rookie bigs, his ceiling is most probably lower. But one thing that gives me hope that he can still improve is that in college, he improved every year. He got only minimal minutes in his 1st year and was quite horrible in scoring (TS% .480 with low usage and FT% .486).

In his second season, he improved significantly his shooting (TS% .602 with little higher usage and FT% .697).

Third year he further improved his scoring efficiency and FT% (.63 TS% and FT% .848) added 3-point shot (3PT% .381 with quite low amount of attempts) and improved rebounding (from 9.5 per 40 minutes to 11.8 while his minutes increased.

In his last year he nearly tripled the amount of 3PT attempts while improving his 3PT%, he also maintained high scoring efficiency while his usage increased from 20.7 to 28.9. He also improved his passing so that he had 1.9 assists per 40 minutes compared to 0.7 that he had in his first two years. Of course higher offensive load affected some part of his game like shot blocking and offensive rebounding that were career low level in his senior year.

. This move by Flip just came out of left field.


It seems like Flip talked to his buddy Izzo, got a glowing report, and made a deal. What else would he base it on?

papalrep wrote:. This move by Flip just came out of left field.


It seems like Flip talked to his buddy Izzo, got a glowing report, and made a deal. What else would he base it on?

If that is all he? Did he check his horoscope? Did he get a psychic reading?

Anyone know when Flip was born? Maybe we can at least look back at his horoscope to get clues what he was thinking at the time.

Thank you Mikkeman. The 40 per numbers in college were what caught my attention, but I did not have the patience to post them or the comparisons you made. Nice job!

Quite frankly, I see even MORE egg coming on MANY people's faces than the whole "Wiggins is failing as a #1 pick" thread...

lipoli390 wrote:This the key point from the article:

"Draft picks are also coveted trade assets, and dealing so many first-round picks now limits bigger moves that could be made in the future. Teams cannot deal picks in consecutive years, and with multiple protected picks owed to other teams limits their ability to include them in prospective trades.

Again, if you're not able to draft affordable young talent, or trade for players you likely wouldn't be able to bring in via free agency, how are you improving the roster? At that point you're relying a lot on player development and hoping to improve enough to become an attractive destination."

Nothing in Payne's numbers from 4 years of college or his D-League stint suggest he was worth giving up a future 1st. And that's before you factor in Payne's lung condition and age.

While I agree that nothing in Adreian's D-League stint suggests he is worth a first, I also don't put much stock in D-League stats...if they meant anything, Brady Heslip would be a star PG in the NBA. But I disagree that his college numbers don't add up to a first. 16.4 and 7.3 his senior year on a very good team where he had to share points with Gary Harris, and rebounds with Dawson and Valentine. It's difficult to find guys with his kind of length who also made over 42% on threes with good volume. Plus, he is very athletic and fits in with the high-flying style Flip is building here...just check out his winning dunk in the college dunk contest a year ago:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxFKBYPEgRo

I've read a lot about his lung problem, but it didn't seem to bother him his senior year when he played 28 minutes a game. Frankly, I would be more concerned about the plantars fasciitis that torpedoed his rookie year at Atlanta, but he says that is no longer a problem. The Wolves have a big issue at PF with one guy who can't rebound or defend and another guy who maddeningly can't come close to reaching the potential he showed in college, and Payne should be an upgrade over both. To obtain him for a 2017 pick that I think will be late teens or early 20s seems like a steal to me. With the youth already on this roster, the last thing Flip needed was another 19-year-old outside-the-lottery prospect...he already has GR3 to fill that role.

60WinTim wrote:Thank you Mikkeman. The 40 per numbers in college were what caught my attention, but I did not have the patience to post them or the comparisons you made. Nice job!

Quite frankly, I see even MORE egg coming on MANY people's faces than the whole "Wiggins is failing as a #1 pick" thread...

Lost in the hysterics in that thread (both the premature hand-wringing some of us did over his performance and the over-reaction by those who condemned the hand-wringing) is the fact that good old Papalrep was the one that launched that damn thing to begin with, and then quietly snuck away while the rest of us engaged in hand-to-hand combat! His Holiness is a sly one, isn't he?

Mikkeman wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:Nothing in Payne's numbers from 4 years of college or his D-League stint suggest he was worth giving up a future 1st. And that's before you factor in Payne's lung condition and age.

I agree with the D-league part but not about his college stats. He played quite low amount of minutes even in his senior year (28.1) and that really affected his stats.

If we check his per 40-minutes stats, they look really impressive:
12-13: 16.4 pts, 11.8 rbs, 2.0 blks and .63 TS%
13-14: 23.4 pts, 10.3 rbs, 1.9 asts, 1.3 blks, .607 TS% .423 3P% with 4.8 attempts per 40 minutes

I would say that his senior year scoring numbers are near elite level. Those numbers are better than some of the best scoring last year lottery picks had. For example Jabari Parker had 25.0 pts per 40 minutes with .558 TS% and Julius Randle had 19.4 pts per 40 minutes with .567 TS%.

We can also compare those numbers to college numbers of some current NBA top scoring bigs and Payne's senior year numbers look even more impressive. Nikola Vucevic had 19.4 pts per 40 minutes with .578 TS% in his junior year, Al Horford had 19.0 pts per 40 minutes with .624 TS% in his junior year, Greg Monroe had 18.9 pts per 40 minutes with .589 TS% in his sophmore year and LaMarcus Aldridge had 17.8 pts per 40 minutes with .589 TS% in his sophmore year

Other elite skill that Payne had in college was his 3-point shooting. I think that last big that had as good 3-point shooting year than Payne's senior year was Ryan Anderson. (in terms of accuracy and volume) Ryan Anderson shot in his sophmore year 3-pointers .41 accuracy and 5.8 3-point attempts per 40 minutes.

I somehow understand your concern related to Payne's rebounding and block numbers but they were still not that bad if we compare them to for example Jahlil Okafor's numbers. Payne had career DRB% 21.3 and BLK% 5.8 while Okafor has currently DRB% 19.0 and BLK% 4.6.

Payne's DRB% in last two years (23.9 and 22.9) is also quite comparable to numbers for some other bigs that stayed longer in college as well. Dieng's had DRB% 22.1 in his last year, Mason Plumlee had 24.5 and 23.3 in his last two years and Vucevic had 23.2 and 25.6 in his last two years. All those players have been successful in rebounding also in NBA.

I understand that since Payne is older than most of other rookie bigs, his ceiling is most probably lower. But one thing that gives me hope that he can still improve is that in college, he improved every year. He got only minimal minutes in his 1st year and was quite horrible in scoring (TS% .480 with low usage and FT% .486).

In his second season, he improved significantly his shooting (TS% .602 with little higher usage and FT% .697).

Third year he further improved his scoring efficiency and FT% (.63 TS% and FT% .848) added 3-point shot (3PT% .381 with quite low amount of attempts) and improved rebounding (from 9.5 per 40 minutes to 11.8 while his minutes increased.

In his last year he nearly tripled the amount of 3PT attempts while improving his 3PT%, he also maintained high scoring efficiency while his usage increased from 20.7 to 28.9. He also improved his passing so that he had 1.9 assists per 40 minutes compared to 0.7 that he had in his first two years. Of course higher offensive load affected some part of his game like shot blocking and offensive rebounding that were career low level in his senior year.

This is easily the best case I've seen made on behalf of Payne. Good work Mikkeman.

I'm a fence-sitter with this move, but Mikkeman lays out a good case here. Still.....It's one year's worth of data and the dude was practically a card-carrying member of AARP at the time (unlike some of the guys Mikkeman compared him to). And his rookie year has done nothing to invalidate the pessimists.

OK, back on the fence I go......

Q12543 wrote:

60WinTim wrote:Thank you Mikkeman. The 40 per numbers in college were what caught my attention, but I did not have the patience to post them or the comparisons you made. Nice job!

Quite frankly, I see even MORE egg coming on MANY people's faces than the whole "Wiggins is failing as a #1 pick" thread...

Lost in the hysterics in that thread (both the premature hand-wringing some of us did over his performance and the over-reaction by those who condemned the hand-wringing) is the fact that good old Papalrep was the one that launched that damn thing to begin with, and then quietly snuck away while the rest of us engaged in hand-to-hand combat! His Holiness is a sly one, isn't he?

Ha, papalrep...the Instigator!

Actually, I think the Payne discussion has been one of the better ones we have had on this board...excellent points on both sides. Is he a lung-impaired, average rebounding, poor rim-protecting, D-League flop, or an athletic, 3-point shooting, PnR defending answer to our prayers at PF? Nobody knows. I'm going to stay with IFWT (in flip we trust!).