I haven't tracked how well Vegas does in these types of situations but mostly I don't care about what they say to be honest. Even if they were right 70 percent of the time that means they were far enough from 100 percent it's not gonna make me be like oh that's what's gonna happen based on their odds.KG4Ever wrote: ↑Sun Jun 15, 2025 1:15 amYeah, my fears of a Durant trade where TC pays too much are still alive. It wasn't very long ago that Wolves were a 52% favorite to have Durant and I trust Vegas more than reporters grinding out stories, especially as teams try to use the media to gain an advantage in negotiations.Monster wrote: ↑Sat Jun 14, 2025 9:58 pmI watched the clip of what Shams actually said about the situation yesterday. It was way less decisive sounding than what the quotes on Twitter made it sound like.FNG wrote: ↑Sat Jun 14, 2025 9:20 pm
Yeah, I posted yesterday or the day before in this thread that KD wanted to go to Houston or San Antonio...not sure where the Miami thing came from. My concern was that while the Suns can trade him to whomever they want, the Wolves trading for a KD who didn't want to come here sounded quite risky...$54 million for a discontent 37 year old? I think we (and the media) have put too much stock in the "he wants to play with Ant" narrative. He clearly enjoyed playing with Ant in the Olympics, but he has never expressed any interest in coming here. I think it's bizarre how the betting markets have jumped around every time Shams tweets. I think he's going to lose a lot of credibility through this KD stuff...I think he's a lot closer to Doogie than he is to Woj in terms of credibility.
Again keep in mind Paul George didnt want to go to OKC and they traded for him anyway and then he stayed for a couple years and then OKC got a crazy haul for him even though even my cat (who really doesn't care about anything on TV much less sports) knew he was going to the Clippers.
We have been through enough of these trades of big name players over the past few years to make me think these things are pretty unpredictable. A few months ago during the whole saga Jimmy absolutely wasn't going to GS and then hours later he ended up there and signed a big 2 year extension. What I think we can assume based on the reporting we have is that Durant isn't picking the Wolves and forcing his way there. There is reporting that the Suns aren't willing to do Durant any favors so maybe Durant has more interest in coming here than has been reported but the Suns aren't thrilled with one of the pieces that the Wolves are offering. Still it doesn't seem like the Wolves have any advantage there. I don't know if we have much legit reporting of what teams are willing to give up except that Miami doesn't want to give up Ware. What are teams realistically willing to give up for Durant? I really don't know. I would think he has more value than Jimmy but the return for Butler wasn't exactly massive although I don't think Miami did bad all things considered.
One thing that does sometimes get lost in the Gobert deal is the Connelly gave up a lot but he gave up what he wanted in that deal. He didn't give up any of the Wolves young talent unless you want to count Vanderbilt. I think it's fair to fear he will give up too much for Durant but I do think he will have limits on what he will give up to make that happen. We will see. Heck for all we know this could end up dragging on for another 3 weeks or a month despite reporting that it may happen sooner rather than later.