Page 23 of 34
Re: Official 2014 NBA draft thread
Posted: Sun Apr 06, 2014 7:01 pm
by mjs34
I don't watch a lot of college ball anymore, but I caught a fair share of Michigan's games. I know 3pt shooting doesn't always transfer, but Stauskas isnt' the typical 3pt shooter either. This guys makes shots whether there is a hand in his face or not. He makes them from 5 feet beyond the arc, and more importantly, he has a very nice step back move that he sets up with his dribble. He will definitely need to get a little stronger for defensive purposes, but I don't doubt this kids ability to walk in and knock down shots. Imagine him not as your scorer, but as a third or fourth option on offense in his rookie year. Those guys get left open every time down the floor on the weakside.
Re: Official 2014 NBA draft thread
Posted: Sun Apr 06, 2014 7:15 pm
by longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]
sjm34 wrote:I don't watch a lot of college ball anymore, but I caught a fair share of Michigan's games. I know 3pt shooting doesn't always transfer, but Stauskas isnt' the typical 3pt shooter either. This guys makes shots whether there is a hand in his face or not. He makes them from 5 feet beyond the arc, and more importantly, he has a very nice step back move that he sets up with his dribble. He will definitely need to get a little stronger for defensive purposes, but I don't doubt this kids ability to walk in and knock down shots. Imagine him not as your scorer, but as a third or fourth option on offense in his rookie year. Those guys get left open every time down the floor on the weakside.
Good points, sjm. The two biggest factors behind most college players 3-point % dropping more than ten percentage points in their rookie year are the longer shot and bigger faster defenders. If a college player has made a lot of threes while being closely guarded and well beyond the line, it stands to reason that their percentage may not drop as much as most rookies. I watched Muhammad a lot at UCLA and he was a very good 3-point shooter. But his shots were generally unpressured and near the line, so I'm not surprised that he is only hitting 27% of his threes as an NBA rookie. I look for him to be back up in the upper 30s next year or the year after (since next year will sort of be his rookie year...thanks Rick).
Re: Official 2014 NBA draft thread
Posted: Sun Apr 06, 2014 8:27 pm
by kekgeek
Two quick questions for the board
1) If Mcdermott is on the board when we pick do you select him?
2) What are your thoughts of Marshall Henderson in the second round, or at least a summer league tryout. He has range, will need to get better with shot selection, but I think that could be taught if that is what can keep him in the league
Re: Official 2014 NBA draft thread
Posted: Sun Apr 06, 2014 9:57 pm
by khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]
Stauskas has never cracked the top 10 in any mock and yet people think he is a perennial All-Star at his peak? Get realistic. The guy can shoot. That's about it going forward. He wasn't blowing by anybody this year in college, he was just making shots over them. The fact is that the increase in size and speed in the NBA is going to cut down his offensive production to mostly spot up 3's and some shot creation against really poor defenders. Take off the rose colored glasses if you think he is a perennial All-Star. He'd be going a lot higher than 13 if anybody outside of this board thought of him as highly as some of you do.
Re: Official 2014 NBA draft thread
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2014 3:41 pm
by Camden [enjin:6601484]
longstrangetrip wrote:Camden wrote:longstrangetrip wrote:WildWolf2813 wrote:longstrangetrip wrote:
Although I'm not on board with drafting a Harrison as high as 13, you are so correct that we should not expect significant contributions next year from whomever we draft. I know 2013 was a weak year, but still, look at the meager contributions from this year's class. Really the only guy who had much of an impact at all was MCW, and his shooting and turnover stats are a little frightening. Let's draft the right guy for the long-term. Let him play more than Adelman would allow, but keep expectations low.
We are the Minnesota Timberwolves, remember? At some point, we need impact from our rookies. We need some sort of contribution from them since this franchise is historically inept at developing. If we can't expect something from them, what's the point of drafting?
Problem is that rookies just don't contribute much...for anyone. I don't like any rookie's stats this year (with the exception of Deing and Muhammad in very small sample size), and historically draft picks haven't helped much in the first year. The NBA game is just so different from what they have been playing, and at least one transition year seems to be the norm. Take a look at Kobe Bryant's first year stats, for example...not very good. There are the rare exceptions, but not often with a pick as low as the Wolves will have. You draft for the future.
I agree with all of this, but if the player has an elite quality right out of the gate, why couldn't he be a factor? This goes for Dieng's defensive ability when Turiaf/Pek went down, Shabazz when our bench scoring sucked and possibly next year for Stauskas as an outside shooter (at the least).
He could be, but he would be a major exception and probably not a 13th pick. Defenders are so much bigger and faster in the NBA that everyone seems to need a transition year, and the smart coaches (not Rick Adelman this year) give them their minutes anyway knowing that things will be much better in years 2 or 3. Take a look at some of the first year stats of some of the current elite players. Dirk averaged 8.2 points and 21% on 3's. Love averaged 11.1 and only made 2 of the 19 threes he tried. Harden averaged 10 points on 40% shooting. Paul George only averaged 7.8 on 30% 3's. Even the great Kevin Durant only hit 29% of his threes his rookie year. Most of these guys got significantly better their 2nd or 3rd years once they got used to the speed of the NBA game. I like Stauskas a lot, as you do, but I don't see him at the same level as the guys I cite above, and I expect him (or whoever we draft) to be not as good as the elite players above in his first year...especially since 3-point shooting seems to be the stat that suffers the most rookie years.
That's a fair response, but if you look at Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Eric Gordon, Wes Matthews, Damian Lillard and even Tim Hardway Jr.'s shooting percentages as rookies, they're good/great. If the player's a pure shooter, then I don't see why they'd have problems in their elite skill area. What Stauskas is really going to need to adjust to, and I believe he will, is finishing over the longer defenders in the NBA. I'm not in the slightest concerned about his 3P shooting as a rookie, though.
Re: Official 2014 NBA draft thread
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2014 3:42 pm
by Camden [enjin:6601484]
sjm34 wrote:I don't watch a lot of college ball anymore, but I caught a fair share of Michigan's games. I know 3pt shooting doesn't always transfer, but Stauskas isnt' the typical 3pt shooter either. This guys makes shots whether there is a hand in his face or not. He makes them from 5 feet beyond the arc, and more importantly, he has a very nice step back move that he sets up with his dribble. He will definitely need to get a little stronger for defensive purposes, but I don't doubt this kids ability to walk in and knock down shots. Imagine him not as your scorer, but as a third or fourth option on offense in his rookie year. Those guys get left open every time down the floor on the weakside.
+1000
Re: Official 2014 NBA draft thread
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2014 3:51 pm
by Phenom
What if the Harrison twins decided after tonights game to jump to the NBA? They are not getting much love from a draft standpoint right now but I could see them declaring especially if they win tonight. Where would those 2 fall on the SG rankings with the others mentioned?
Re: Official 2014 NBA draft thread
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2014 4:11 pm
by Camden [enjin:6601484]
Phenom's_Revenge wrote:What if the Harrison twins decided after tonights game to jump to the NBA? They are not getting much love from a draft standpoint right now but I could see them declaring especially if they win tonight. Where would those 2 fall on the SG rankings with the others mentioned?
- Wiggins SG/SF
- Smart PG/SG
- Stauskas SG
- Harris SG
- Hairston SG
- Ja. Brown SG
- Hood SG/SF (more of a SF though)
- J. Adams SG
- Aaron Harrison SG
- Zach LaVine SG (risky, high potential)
- James Young SG
- Andrew Harrison PG/SG
My SG big board.
Re: Official 2014 NBA draft thread
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2014 4:23 pm
by Volans19
Hey Cam could you post a 1-15 mock draft if you have the time? I'm interested to see who you think certain teams will pick as well as who you think will be available for us at 13. If you don't want to don't worry about it (I might have missed it if you already have one in one of these 23 pages lol)
Re: Official 2014 NBA draft thread
Posted: Mon Apr 07, 2014 5:32 pm
by longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]
Camden wrote:Phenom's_Revenge wrote:What if the Harrison twins decided after tonights game to jump to the NBA? They are not getting much love from a draft standpoint right now but I could see them declaring especially if they win tonight. Where would those 2 fall on the SG rankings with the others mentioned?
- Wiggins SG/SF
- Smart PG/SG
- Stauskas SG
- Harris SG
- Hairston SG
- Ja. Brown SG
- Hood SG/SF (more of a SF though)
- J. Adams SG
- Aaron Harrison SG
- Zach LaVine SG (risky, high potential)
- James Young SG
- Andrew Harrison PG/SG
My SG big board.
Whoa cam!!!! No love for this year's scoring leader in the Big Ten, the strongest basketball conference? You gotta have Petteway ahead of the Harrison twins! He also plays about twice as much defense as Jordan Adams.