Minnesota Sports Forum

FNG wrote: ↑Mon Dec 15, 2025 4:04 pm

rapsuperstar31 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 15, 2025 2:56 pm

FNG wrote: ↑Mon Dec 15, 2025 1:26 pm

I don't think there's any way this happens without both Jaden and Ju in the deal, plus picks. We aren't going to include Ant, and I don't see anyone else the Bucks might be interested in. I would be intrigued by that deal, but I don't think I would do it.

This probably won't be well received here, but seeing how well we have played without Ant, I would be in favor of a true blockbuster: Ant and Conley for Giannis. I get that Ant is much younger, but I've moved into the camp that I don't see us ever competing for a chip with him as our leader. Giannis is an on/off monster...+20 this year and positive every year of his career...while Ant is a -3.9 this year and barely breakeven for his career. If the Bucks are moving on from Giannis, a deal with Ant in it would likely be as good as they could get. And we could compete with a starting line of Rudy, Ju, Jaden, Giannis, and Donte, with Naz and the youngsters coming off the bench.

Knock it off with seeing how well we have played without Ant to a shitty Kings team and a Golden State team that just lost yesterday to a Portland team without Jru that lost to New Orleans the previous game by 23 on a night Curry hit 12 threes. A two game sample size is nothing. Do you know what is a pretty significant sample size? The Wolves making it out of the first round of the playoffs once in 34 seasons before Ant got here.

Rap. I'm not taking that much from the two wins over the Warriors and the Kings, even though the Warriors were favored by 4 1/2. I am taking something though from the fact that the Wolves covered the spread in both games (i.e. exceeded expectations). When I saw that Draymond was out, I laid a big bet on the Wolves to cover, because the Wolves can survive Ant missing a game easier than the Warriors can survive Draymond missing a game, because Draymond is a guy who consistently makes everyone around him better at both ends of the court. Like Giannis, he consistently has a strong on/off stat...he's +8.4 this season compared to Ant's -3.9. Ant supporters tie themselves up in knots trying to justify why the Wolves do better when he is off the court than on by saying it's because of the mix of players he's on the court with, but the guys he plays the most minutes with are our 4 best on/off guys (Donte, Rudy, Jaden and Ju)...they actually prop up his on/off! The players I think are winners are guys who consistently rank high in on/off. For instance this season, here are the on/offs for key players on their teams:

Giannis: +20
Joker: +17.7
Markkennen: +16.2
Wemby: +12.9
Luka: +9
Draymond: +8.4
Brunson: 7.1
Booker: +5.9
SGA: +5.5

When one of these guys is out, I look to make a bet on the other team if I think Vegas hasn't adjusted the line enough, and it's been a good strategy for me. But as much as I admire Ant's talent, he doesn't have the same positive impact as the guys above. He's more like these high scorers:

Trae: -11
Ja: -6.2
LaVine: -5.4
Ant: -3.9

Despite their elite scoring, their teams tend to do just fine or even better when they miss a game. We need Ant to move into the other group if we're going to challenge for a championship, but he's still a negative player mostly because of his defensive indifference. I'm sure we all noticed a huge difference in how much more aggressive and better our defense looked against the Warriors and the Kings, even if our offense without Ant looked pretty bad in the first half last night.

I get that trading Ant for Giannis might not be the best long-term move because Ant is 7 years younger. But I would argue our chances of competing for a championship the next 3 years would skyrocket with that trade. Maybe others think moving Jaden and Ju is a better move than moving Ant, but I don't. Unfortunately it's the trade that is being rumored and that TC is more likely to make.

FNG wrote: ↑Mon Dec 15, 2025 7:46 pm

kekgeek wrote: ↑Mon Dec 15, 2025 7:36 pm

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Mon Dec 15, 2025 6:56 pm

Yeah, it's such a cherry-picked and dare I say disingenious stat for FNG to use. He looked only at this season's limited sample size, as you mention above. It's funny that FNG didn't cite Ant's net On/Off rating from the 42 playoff games he's played across four seasons. The data completely contradicts his own argument and it's based on a much larger body of work and stronger competition. And for those that don't want to look it up, here are Ant's Net On/Off ratings over the past four years in the playoffs:

2021-22 +6.6
2022-23 +30.3
2023-24 +1.4
2024-25 +2.5
Career Net On/Off Playoff Rating +6.0

This is without getting into the flaws of the metric and how a crappy bench can inflate On/Off net rating when said player is sitting. Ant has almost always had a pretty strong bench, especially the two seasons prior to this one.

Thank you guys for doing the work for me on this. Saw the post from FNG earlier and was too lazy to give very important context to the On/Off numbers this year

You guys are in charge of the parade for Ant for his breakeven on/off numbers in the playoffs over far more games the past two years than his outlier 2022-3 stats in only 5 games! Now, full disclosure: Giannis's numbers haven't been that good in the playoffs, so that's something TC needs to focus on. But his numbers over entire seasons are so much better than Ant's, you really gave to stretch to say we wouldn't be better if we could land him for Ant.

Kek, would you not trade Ant and Mike for Giannis?

FNG wrote: ↑Mon Dec 15, 2025 1:26 pm

Coolbreeze44 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 15, 2025 12:39 pm

kekgeek wrote: ↑Mon Dec 15, 2025 12:33 pm

Ya it might be absolutely nothing. Just interesting timing. Lakers also off the board today. Vegas usually knows so it’s fun speculation

Well, there is definitely smoke out there with Giannis and the Wolves. I think TC is under pressure to do something big. We aren't winning a title as is, or even getting back to a conference final. The thing about Giannis is he would take away the need for a point guard. He would take some of the pressure off Ant to always initiate the offense. To me the question is can we swing a huge deal like this without giving up Jaden.

I don't think there's any way this happens without both Jaden and Ju in the deal, plus picks. We aren't going to include Ant, and I don't see anyone else the Bucks might be interested in. I would be intrigued by that deal, but I don't think I would do it.

This probably won't be well received here, but seeing how well we have played without Ant, I would be in favor of a true blockbuster: Ant and Conley for Giannis. I get that Ant is much younger, but I've moved into the camp that I don't see us ever competing for a chip with him as our leader. Giannis is an on/off monster...+20 this year and positive every year of his career...while Ant is a -3.9 this year and barely breakeven for his career. If the Bucks are moving on from Giannis, a deal with Ant in it would likely be as good as they could get. And we could compete with a starting line of Rudy, Ju, Jaden, Giannis, and Donte, with Naz and the youngsters coming off the bench.

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Mon Dec 15, 2025 9:05 pm Well, FNG knew he'd get some blowback .

It's strictly a theoretical argument to have because there are all sorts of reasons Connelly wouldn't make that trade that goes beyond simply Giannis > Ant as a player right now.

So assuming Ant is off the table, the real asset that Milwaukee would demand is Jaden and I can't imagine any sort of deal the Bucks would agree to not including Jaden. So it would have to be Jaden + [insert other names/picks] to match salaries and overall asset value.

Coolbreeze44 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 15, 2025 9:05 pm Our players are always better than other teams players because we drafted them. It's this mind set that paralyzes fan bases from seeing the forest through the trees. Ant is a gifted player that can put his team on his back and win a game. It does not mean he's the complete package. It's obvious he hasn't reached that status and I still expect him to have a relatively short career. If you're being objective, Giannis would give us a far better chance of winning a title than Ant over the next 3 years. This trade is never going to happen, but if you really care about winning a championship you should want it to. Maybe we get Giannis and Ant which would be incredible.

FNG wrote: ↑Mon Dec 15, 2025 7:33 pm Some very good points by Tim and Q. I don't disagree that on/off is a "noisy" stat, but tell me one that isn't! Zach LaVine looks terrific by many stats, but I challenge anyone to tell me he is a positive player. On/off is personal to me...when I played in high school and college, I always wanted to know I had influenced the score positively while I was on the court. Would I get pissed off and say to myself "it's not my fault" if a teammate was lax on defense or jacking up ill advised shots? Of course. But I knew that things tend to average out, and it was a good goal to outscore my opponent while I was on the court. Q, Ant had a terrific 2022-3 post-season when we got eliminated in the first round 4-1. But in the next two years in much more competitive series he was barely breakeven. I need more from my team leader than that.

Cam anyone really make the case that we would not be improved the next three years if somehow we were able to convince the Bucks to take Ant and Conley for Giannis?