monsterpile wrote:lipoli390 wrote:monsterpile wrote:crazy-canuck wrote:monsterpile wrote:lipoli390 wrote:monsterpile wrote:crazy-canuck wrote:monsterpile wrote:TheGrey08 wrote:khans2k5 wrote:J Rich and a first with filler was their final offer.
oof and now they are planning for him to be on the team to start the season. I sure hope teams stop screwing around and make a decent offer sooner than later..
This is a tweet from a salary cap guru that covers the Heat. He is very good at the numbers and this seems pretty logical to me. *** my thoughts will follow
https://twitter.com/albertnahmad/status/1049791678905757696?s=21
"I'd guess the Heat offer for Jimmy Butler that the Wolves declined included not just Josh Richardson and a protected first-round pick, but also Dion Waiters (3/$36M+) to salary match, who I'd guess Wolves didn't want and therefore needed a third team (e.g., Kings) to swallow."
***This deal sounds ok getting Richardson and a 1st but...if you see Waiters as basically dead weight that means you are now basically paying Josh Richardson over 20 million bucks when you combine his salary and Waiters plus take up 2 roster spots and a getting a pick in the 20's....while also having to worry about Luxury tax problems in a year. It's not too hard to see why the Wolves turn that down both basketball wise and from ownership standpoint. So having Withers in this deal basically takes away the value contract of Richardson. I think Waiters could still have some use in the right situation but I don't think that's with the Wolves at this point.
Yeah, the filler was either going to be olynyk or waiters.
But since the media is only reporting Richardson, 1st, and "filler", that filler has to be dion. Olynyk isnt a bad player. So, if it was olynyk, he'd have been mentioned.
Waiters, on the other hand is a scrub. So, it benefits miami to not mention him while throwing more shade at the minnesota front office.
This has another miami leak written all over it.
I've seen some fairly credible people suggesting. That Miami Would or should value Olynyk. I'd imagine the Wolves wouldn't value him enough to want him back in the deal since he might be on a decent contract they wouldn't really love to pay him. Waiters makes the most sense. The more I look at the trade the more it's just not a good deal for the Wolves. Furthermore I admit the willingness to do an Eric Gordon and Tucker deal was flawed as well because of the added salary those players would add for next season. Either way it likely means worrying about the lux tax is there and if so that means no cap space and maybe not even able to use an exemption. Even letting Butler walk for nothing you can at least use the mid-level exemption and the BAE to add someone. There will be lots of money available but there will also be players that aren't going to get paid a lot. With the mid-level you could probably sign a Winslow level young player. Sure you miss out on a 1st round pick but it's not worth it when you have to be paying for years.
One way you can look at this deal is Butler straight up for Richardson which considering Richardson's contract I think I would do if it was possible. That's a heck of a lot better than nothing. Then you have taking on Waiters for a 1st round pick. That's over 30 million of salary for a 1st round pick. HELL NO. Even if you wanted to say it was just the 2 years after this one since we would have been paying Butler...holy bleep I just looked it up that's actually almost 25 million for the final 2 years for Waiters. That's a terrible deal. There will be people ripping Thibs AND Glen for not accepting this deal (or any deal lol) but it's not a good deal. Pat Riley screwed himself into this situation with all these contracts we are here to bail him out of at least one of them.
Monster -- As you know, I've never been reluctant to rip Thibodeau. But if that really was the offer the Wolves turned down, then Thibs gets nothing but praise from me. That's Pat Riley being a prick. I might consider taking Waiters if we get both Adebayo and Miami's 1st, but otherwise, not a chance. Riley needs Butler. He has absolutely no cap room and doesn't have contracts he can move to create room. He'll have only one draft pick next June -- likely a 1st round pick in the 15-20 range -- and no first round pick the following year. He's not in a position to build around Adebayo. His best chance is to convert Adebayo into a player who can move the needle in a time frame that works with Dragic.
Good post.
I'll say this about Pat Riley and Miami...IF they really Valued Richardson and Bam for their young core and saw them as legit building blocks and didn't want to give them up for Butler...fine. As Wolves fans who saw some young players shipped out for Bulter a few months ago we can get that. However as you have strongly stated Riley seems likely to want Butler pretty badly. All the reporting says Miami has been aggressive in going after him. One report said Spolstra wants Butler. Its not hard to think Riley wants Bulter quite a bit and there seems to be traction there. It seems like Riley is willing to make a deal. If that's the case they are willing to put some reasonable assets towards making the deal. Richardson I am guessing has been available for a while its just the Wolves aren't leaking it and Miami would not want to because I'm sure they don't want Richardson to think he was offered in a trade if this doesn't work out.
I looked up the trade kicker and it looks like it counts as salary and I do not think the ESPN trade machine has counted for that. The team that trades the player pays the salary but the higher salary counts both for the trade and the new team's salary situation. ESPN trade machine says a Butler, Dieng for Tyler Johnson and Richardson works and that's without adding in the trade kicker. I'd do that and a 1st. That would add some pretty significant amount of money over the tax line for the Heat so that might not be realistic.
I think thats why the winslow extension is going to play a role.
I think If winslow can sign a team friendly extension, Heat can absolutely go into the season with a wing rotation of Butler, winslow, waiters, and Mcgruder. And on a friendly deal they can get a little flexibility for a Butler extension as well as a max slot the year after.
If he asks for too much, I dont think they can risk richardson. That would leave the heat with Butler and no other quality defensive wings.
To add something interesting to what you have been saying...
https://twitter.com/AlbertNahmad/status/1049799794707836929
"Rodney McGruder is currently eligible for a veteran extension. He can sign one at any point through the end of the season. It could pay out far more than he'd actually get (up to 4 years, $47.5M). If he doesn't sign one, Heat can make him RFA as an almost 28-year-old next summer."
Interesting though on the possible Winslow extension. I agree that locking up Winslow would make it easier for the Heat to give up Richardson. The question remains -- will Riley eventually include Bam with Richardson? If so, would the Wolves be willing to take Waiters? Getting Bam and Miami's 1st along with Richardson would be enough for me to take Waiters. But I think we'd need to include Patton to stay under the luxury tax.
Honestly even though its not a great trade I would rather do Butler and Dieng for Richardson and Johnson without a pick or Bam than have to take on Waiters (without moving Dieng) to get one of those assets...Maybe Bam is worth in as a player but I still don't see a clear path for him with Towns on the roster. I still think Towns is a center. In this underwhelming deal it only adds a bit more money from Dieng to Tyler Johnson but Johnson is a more intriguing player and then add Richardson's salary plus you get out of a year of Dieng. We should get more but Again if that's the best we could do I wouldn't hate it.
I agree, Monster. If that's my choice, I'll take Richardson and T. Johnson without the pick for Butler and Dieng rather than take the deal Miami purportedly offered where we'd get Richardson and Waiters with protected pick in exchange for just Butler.
One thing seems clear about Riley's thinking. He's definitely trying to use the Butler deal to offload bad contracts. As much some might praise Riley as a basketball mind, the Heat front office has done a terrible job manage the salary cap. Somehow, Riley's front office has put together a roster of multiple mediocre or bad attitude players with huge long-term contracts to the point where the Heat have one of the highest luxury tax payrolls in the League; yet they have no better than a 6th place finish in the East to show for it.
It would appear that Riley or his owner have decided enough is enough when it comes to futher exploded the team's payroll. When you look at the situation from that angle, you can see that why Miami would be highly reluctant and perhaps unwilling to do the deal you suggested. Assuming the Heat re-sign Butler, which is clearly their intent, the deal you suggested would increase Miami's payroll next season by about $16 million. They'd be paying around $30 million to Butler, which would be offset by eliminating T. Johnson and Richardson from the lineup. So that part of the deal would be about break-even for them. But Gorgui would add around $16 million for two more years.
You can see Riley's plan. I think they've target the summer of 2020 for free agency to add pieces around Butler. The Whiteside and Tyler Johnson contracts both expire then. That will be nearly $50 million coming off the Heat's books as they head into 2020 summer free agency. If they've already offloaded Waiters to the Wolves in a Butler deal, that's an additional $15 million removed from their payroll. So I think it's going to be very hard to get Miami to agree to any deal involving Gorgui unless we agree to take Whiteside in return. So a cap-clearing component for 2020 is likely one of Miami's core trade parameters. That explains the reports that Miami and MN have sought a 3rd team to take salary. The question is whether that core Miami parameter is a bottom line parameter. My sense is that, at least for now, it is. If that doesn't chance, the Wolves will have two choices - (1) accept Waiters but insist on getting more player value in return, which in my view should be Adebayo but it could possibly be another future 1st round pick (unprotected) out in 2022 or 2023 time frame; or (2) find another team willing to give up someone comparable to Richardson but without the salary garbage attached.
There are two other potential trading partners with players comparable to Richardson who they might realistically give up for Butler.
One deal would be with the Sixers who have Covington. I'd do a deal for Covington, Muscala or Bayless and Zhaire Smith along with the 2019 Chicago and Sacrament 2nd round picks, which will likely be very high in that round. Those picks are actually often better than low 1st round picks because the talent is generally comparable to what you can get near the bottom of the 1st round, but you don't have to as much. I don't know why the Sixers wouldn't do that deal unless they simply don't want Butler around their lockerroom. That deal would be better for the Wolves from a salary perspective than the Richardson/Waiters/pick deal with Miami, but I think the Miami deal would be better from a player/talent perspective. That's because I'm really high on Richardson who is younger and a much better ballhandler than Covington.
The other deal would be with the Clippers who have T. Harris as their player comparable to Richardson. So far reports indicate the Clippers are unwilling to part with Harris. Again, we need to look at this from the Clippers' perspective. Not only is Harris a very good young and still improving player, he's also has only 1 year left on his contract. That's key because Clippers are obviously preparing to make a big push for K. Leonard in free agency next summer. Swapping Harris for Butler take away a significant chunk of the Clippers' scap space next summer. On the other hand, having Butler would give them an allstar going into next summer's free agency, which could enhance their chances of attracting Kawhi. But the Clippers might be thinking they can just sign both as free agents while having the flexibility to sign someone other than Butler as a better pairing with Kawhi. My sense is that the Clippers will never agree to give up Harris unless there's a cap sweetener as part of the deal. He's too valueable to them as both a player they might keep and an expiring contract to further enhance their cap space next summer.
But given the Clipper's focus on cap space next summer, I think they would be high motivated to include Gallo in a Butler deal. I think they'd give up quite a bit in a deal centered around Gallo and Butler. So what assets would we want from the Clippers? For me, G-Alexander would be an essential part of the return. Unfortunately, he's the only Clippers' asset I have any interest in other than Harris. They've already traded their 2019 first round pick and don't have any interesting young players worth pursuing. I like Lou, but he's in his early 30s already and doesn't fit what should be the Wolves longer-term focus to build around the 23-year old Towns. One deal, the Clippers might do would be Butler and Taj for Gallo, Harris and G-Alexander. Getting rid of Gallo and parting with G-Alexander, but taking Taj instead of Gorgui, would be essentially cap neutral for the Clippers next summer. So they'd have all the cap room they were counting on to pursue Kawhi and/or other free agents. The risk for the Wolves would be the risk that Harris doesn't re-sign and the additional luxury tax risk of taking on Gallo's contract.