Draft Day Thread

[Wolvesfan21]

I am as critical of Thibs as any and I like both picks. I like Okogies wingspan and defensive talent. If he can become a decent NBA 3 point shooter he could be a nice player.

[Monster]

You realize, monster, that qualifying offers to MGH, Brown and Jefferson, signing our two draft picks, and bringing back both Rose and Belly represents all 15 roster spots.

While not my favorite, I don't have a problem with that scenario, but I suspect it will not sit well with many people...

You raise a good point Tim about roster spots. A qualifying offer to brown could be only to keep him as a 2-way player which was my thought but wasn't clear about.

Clearly this team is going to add some sort of vet FA likely a wing so there has to be at least one spot for that player. Only having 1 roster spot open for an outside FA doesn't seem like enough either though and many teams like to keep an open roster spot for flexibility.

I think the Wolves value Amile and MGH but it's certantly possible 1 or both could be let go or lost if the Wolves are able to add other players via FA. Maybe Amile will return as a 2-way guy if the market for him isn't high enough. One consideration for being a 2-way player is you accumulate service time so even a vet min deal when you do sign it keeps going up. Plus the Wolves are likely seen as a playoff team so you make some extra money being on the team during the playoffs. Both Amile and MGH's qualifying offers are higher than a vet min deal which is also supplemented by the league so they might be more inclined to go that route depending on what kind of salary constraints via luxury tax they may think they are looking at. Maybe they would like to do a Sam Hienke special on one or more of these guys and sign them to cheap multiyear deals. I'm getting too far into the weeds about these guys though and I'm likely overvaluing both to some extent.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

MGH is as good as gone and I wouldn't be all that surprised if Bjelica is left in the cold as well, no Minnesota pun intended there.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

LST - I blame our lack of 3-point attempts more on the decision making our our two young studs than the system they play in. If they would only put a higher priority on creating shots for others than merely creating their own shots, we would see more 3-point attempts. And it would get more players involved in the offense, including the bench. But I firmly believe that is something that will continue to improve as those players continue to mature.

I disagree, Tim. I recall multiple times, Thibodeau waving guys off the 3-point line. Towns is our best 3-point shooter, yet it's Thibs who has him posting up in or near the paint most of the time. Trust me, Thibodeau orchestrates everything on the offensive end. Thibs has always coached a mid-range isolation game. While Thibs talks a good game about 3-point shooting, I don't see the spacing or ball movement required for better volume 3-point shooting. And no one holds the ball more than Jimmy Butler except perhaps Jeff Teague. I don't see those guys setting up their teammates for threes. But that's understandable since the spacing isn't there and it doesn't appear to be central to the design of the offense.

I think Tim does make a good point though and it is part of the problem. Jimmy is both part of the problem and I think he can be part of the solution. He can be an unselfish player but he try's to take over too much down the stretch.

I don't think it's a coaching issue....

Player-Career % of FGA were 3's-Last Season % of FGA were 3's

Butler - 22% - 22%
Wiggins - 18% - 26%
Teague - 25% - 29%
KAT - 17% - 24%
Jones - 38% - 39%
Gibson - 1% - 5%
Bjelly - 50% - 49%
Crawford - 39% - 42%
Dieng - 7% - 16%

Everyone but Bjelly went upwards in terms of the proportion of their shots being 3's.

Hmm...I see some flaws in your logic. First, the percentage of threes to total shots has risen dramatically league-wide as modern teams redesign their offenses to take advantage of the 50% 3-point bonus, so you should expect to see big increases in percentages. More importantly, except for Belly and Teague, the players on your list have spent most of their careers playing for Thibs. So you're comparing their percentage while playing for Thibs to...their percentage while playing for Thibs!


I'm going to take eye test over stats on this one...Thibs' offensive design just looks different from the winning teams in the league with its emphasis on isolation ball and lack of ball movement to create open corner threes. It's an efficient offense because our team is loaded with efficient scorers, but it's not an offensive designed around the 3-pointer.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

LST - I blame our lack of 3-point attempts more on the decision making our our two young studs than the system they play in. If they would only put a higher priority on creating shots for others than merely creating their own shots, we would see more 3-point attempts. And it would get more players involved in the offense, including the bench. But I firmly believe that is something that will continue to improve as those players continue to mature.

I disagree, Tim. I recall multiple times, Thibodeau waving guys off the 3-point line. Towns is our best 3-point shooter, yet it's Thibs who has him posting up in or near the paint most of the time. Trust me, Thibodeau orchestrates everything on the offensive end. Thibs has always coached a mid-range isolation game. While Thibs talks a good game about 3-point shooting, I don't see the spacing or ball movement required for better volume 3-point shooting. And no one holds the ball more than Jimmy Butler except perhaps Jeff Teague. I don't see those guys setting up their teammates for threes. But that's understandable since the spacing isn't there and it doesn't appear to be central to the design of the offense.

I think Tim does make a good point though and it is part of the problem. Jimmy is both part of the problem and I think he can be part of the solution. He can be an unselfish player but he try's to take over too much down the stretch.

I don't think it's a coaching issue....

Player-Career % of FGA were 3's-Last Season % of FGA were 3's

Butler - 22% - 22%
Wiggins - 18% - 26%
Teague - 25% - 29%
KAT - 17% - 24%
Jones - 38% - 39%
Gibson - 1% - 5%
Bjelly - 50% - 49%
Crawford - 39% - 42%
Dieng - 7% - 16%

Everyone but Bjelly went upwards in terms of the proportion of their shots being 3's.

Hmm...I see some flaws in your logic. First, the percentage of threes to total shots has risen dramatically league-wide as modern teams redesign their offenses to take advantage of the 50% 3-point bonus, so you should expect to see big increases in percentages. More importantly, except for Belly and Teague, the players on your list have spent most of their careers playing for Thibs. So you're comparing their percentage while playing for Thibs to...their percentage while playing for Thibs!


I'm going to take eye test over stats on this one...Thibs' offensive design just looks different from the winning teams in the league with its emphasis on isolation ball and lack of ball movement to create open corner threes. It's an efficient offense because our team is loaded with efficient scorers, but it's not an offensive designed around the 3-pointer.

Some have played for Thibs in the past, some haven't. We'll just have to agree to disagree that the problem is Thibs the Coach when it comes to our 3-point shooting. I think the problem is Thibs the GM. He constructed a roster of guys that nearly all prefer the mid-range and paint area for most of their shots.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Yeah, I don't see any reason to keep MGH or Anthony Brown around. Jefferson might make some sense, especially if we lose Bjelly to free agency.

[Lipoli390]

Bottom line is we were last in 3-point attempts last season. Then look at that compelling team stat in conjunction with the unmistakeable reality that the Wolves offense last season was isolation-centric with less spacing and far less ball movement than most teams, especially the better teams in the League. Add in Thibodeau's long history of coaching isolation offense without a lot of 3-point shooting. Put it all together and there shouldn't be much doubt that Thibodeau's offense does not prioritize 3-point shooting.

I do think some of the low volume of 3 attempts can fairly be attributed to the fact that we don't have any historically high-volume 3-point shooters on the team. But that just takes us back to Thibodeau in his role as PBO. Think about the guys he brought here through trades or free agency -- Aldrich, Butler, Gibson, Crawford, Teague and Derrick Rose. None of those players has ever been knows as a volume 3-point shooter and only Teague has a decent 3-point career percentage. Then think about the guys Thibodeau has drafted -- Dunn, Patton, Okogie and Diop. Dunn and Patton certainly weren't anything close to 3-point shooters coming out of college. And our two picks this season, while shooting fairly well from behind the arc in college, haven't been high-volume 3-point shooters. Also consider the two pre-existing Wolves players who got big contracts from Thibodeau -- Gorgui and Wiggins -- neither of which has shown himself to be a good 3-point shooter.

But this takes us back to Thibodeau the head coach. It's the same guy. His personnel decisions tell us his overall view of 3-point shooting. So it shouldn't be a surprise that he doesn't design his offense to facilitate or encourage 3-point shooting. His offense fits the personnel he trades for, drafts and signs. Thibodeau isn't a mystery. From the day he got here and since he's talked about two things above all others he wants in his offense -- gettting to the line and minimizing turnovers. His isolation more stationary style has been successful in both regards. So I'm looking at the totality: (1) the magnitude of the Wolves' low 3-point volume (not just lower than most, but bottom of the League); (2) Thibodeau's long-standing reputation; (3) Thibodeau's own description of what he wants out of his offense; (4) the types of players he's brought here or signed; and (5) the methodical, isolation style and lack of spacing that stands out in the eye test. It seems obvious that Thibodeau does not emphasize 3-point shooting and that's an understatement.

Thibodeau is clearly trying to assemble a tough, defensive-oriented smash-mouth team scoring primarily on 2-point jumpers, layups and free throws. No surprise there. That's why he loves Butler and Gibson. That explains why he drafted Dunn a couple years ago and why he drafted Okogie and Diop this year. It's why he liked MGH last season. It's why Derrick Rose was his only mid/late season FA acquisition. Well, I guess part of it is Thibs' premium on familiarity, meaning guys he coached in Chicago. We'll see whether Thibodeau makes any adjustments to his style next to season. So far since he's been here and through his career, there is not indication that he adjusts much at all.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Houston and Cleveland play almost exclusively isolation-style ball, yet they get a ton of 3's up. They have shooters!

Again, a number of our guys were at career highs in 3's attempted last season.

[Lipoli390]

Houston and Cleveland play almost exclusively isolation-style ball, yet they get a ton of 3's up. They have shooters!

Again, a number of our guys were at career highs in 3's attempted last season.

We'll just have to agree to disagree on this one. I just don't buy that a PBO who repeatedly deemphasizes 3-point shooting in his personnel decisions would not also deemphasize it as head coach, especially when you consider his long-standing reputation as a head coach. If our ball-dominant wing, Butler, loved and shot the three on par with Harden, then the Wolves would certainly have more 3-point attempts. I'll grant you that. :)

[Monster]

Here is a pretty decent scouting report on KBD.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mOMUsVhseqQ

I've heard some various comps to him like a less athletic version of Ariza (very similar overall length) and a skinnier version of Jared Dudley. Watching the video above I saw a guy that kinda resembled Thad Young. KDB is much longer than either Young or Dudley. He has legit PF length and he just looks plenty big watching video and he has that wingspan. I wasn't dying to get this guy in the first round but as a bench combo forward at #48..yes I see a path for him to be a worthwhile player for us.

It's not difficult to end up comparing him in some sort of context to the only other versatile true combo forward big on the Wolves roster Belly. Belly has a nice combo of size shooting and ball handling. I think everyone would agree Belly is an NBA player. I'm sure many NBA teams would like to have him on their roster. How much would he get used by various teams? Idk is he a guy that will break through some of his inconstancy and be a little more reliable or will he be more is a bigger more versatile version of Omri casspi a guy that in theory should be a really solid player but doesn't live up to it because of inconsistency and injury? Belly's value is as a shooter and playmaker at his size. KBD when you watch him shoot you think this guy can absolutely knock down NBA's espcially off catch and shoot opportunities but he can set himself up off hard closeouts for sure. We know Belly can shoot but sometimes he doesn't for some reason. There is a confidence issue there at times (I don't need to get into why it's been discussed plenty on this board). The point is I think there is real optimism about KBD being a legit stretch 4 type guy that can play SF also with his long range shooting. Marvin Williams is another player I have seen people compare him to. Obviously some of these comparisons are obviously optimistic but I think the idea is to give people an idea of what type of player he is/could be. Belly also can handle the ball and make some good plays. He also has some bad possessions doing it. Still it's nice to have guys that can grab a rebound and get up the court a bit or be able to dribble around if needed. KBD looks plenty a capable of doing that and may even be able to make some plays off the bounce against certain matchups. He won't have the playmaking ability of Belly but he might be a better scorer. It looks like he has a post game and can score some at all levels. Belly is more shoot a long range shot or attack and/ or pass after doing so.

Size and athletic ability. Belly is a pretty big player. He has to be at least 6'10" he only looks shorter than guys who are literal 7' or taller players. He isn't the thickest guy but now physically mature he isn't skinny anymore. We don't know his incapable but it has to be at least average for someone his height just based on looking at him. KDB is shooter but probably makes up some of that in wingspan. The thing he has going for him is while not a bigtime athlete he is a better one than Belly is who is fluid but isn't anything more than average. To his credit I thought he did pretty good playing SF moving around pretty well. KDB looks like he is still more abile to move around and get up more than Belly.

Maybe KBD isn't good and never turns out to be more than a fringe NBA player or doesn't even reach that level. I can see a path to him being somewhere in the range Belly has been the last couple years a guy that's worthwhile even with his inconsistency. If KBD could become what Belly has been (in his own way which would be a win) but be more consistent then he could be that solid starter that some of us have wished Belly was able to fill or for some even the opportunity to have. I'm not holding my breath on that one but I like having him on the roster. I'm assuming he gets signed to a contract based on what they said about how the valued him in the draft process. Only time will tell if he can help us but I do feel good about our chances. He fits the needs this team has as another versatile combo guy.