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Re: Twins 2020 Off-season Thread

Posted: Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:36 pm
by Jester1534
monsterpile wrote:
Camden0916 wrote:
jester1534 wrote:
Camden wrote:
It's "believed" the Nationals and Twins are willing to go to four years for Donaldson, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). The Dodgers and Braves are still in the hunt, per Rosenthal, though he notes both teams could be hesitant to go to the four-year length to land Donaldson.


This report gets my hopes up, but as the saying goes -- hope is the most dangerous thing in this world. The Twins need to get this deal done before it gets dragged out. The longer the bidding goes the more confident I am that they'll get outdone.


Wonder if he be willing to front load his contract like the Padres did with Hosmer a couple years ago. I believe Hosmer is making around 22-23 mil but his last 3 years he will be making 13mil.

So we could do a deal where we do 4 for 100 million but pay Donaldson 35 million the first year. Then 30 million the next year. Then 22.5 the two years after when the Twins will need to start resigning giuys in 2022.

Also to note this report came from Ken Rothensal so its a legit report


I'm still not sure Donaldson will reach the $100-million mark, but even if the bidding gets that high the Twins should be in on him. I agree about front-loading the contract as that makes the most sense right now given the expected deals coming in the near future. I could see something like four-years, $92-million with $60-million over the first two years followed by a very manageable $16-million annually on the back half of the four years.

1. Jorge Polanco (SS) - S
2. Luis Arraez (2B) - L
3. Nelson Cruz (DH) - R
4. Josh Donaldson (3B) - R
5. Max Kepler (RF) - L
6. Miguel Sano (1B) - R
7. Eddie Rosario (LF) - L
8. Mitch Garver (C) - R
9. Byron Buxton (CF) - R

If that's the lineup, is it the best in baseball? My gut feeling is yes. Will it matter in the post-season if the pitching rotation -- and bullpen -- is not upgraded? No it will not.


Does front loading a contract really matter Thant much in baseball compared to say the NBA? I mean it does cost more in real money paying out the money earlier. I'm not knocking the creativity just asking a question. I'm curious to know what kind of money Donaldson gets per year on a 4 year deal. Personally I go for 4 years 100 million. It's maybe a worrisome amount of money BUT if Donaldson stays a pretty good player it will easily be worth that. He can hit and field and is a former MVP. He seems clearly worth at least a 2 year 50 million dollar deal so a 3rd year seems pretty reasonable to stomach and a 4th year...I'd at least hope he can at least be a worthwhile DH the last year for 300+ ABs. Just looked back at his injury history...basically missed a few games in 2017 then had a bad year in 2018 but last year played 155 games. Before that the guy played a ton. Sign me up I want him.


Front loading contracts isn't usually a thing in baseball, but in this case it applies. We have so many guys with 2+ years of arbitration left we have excess money to spend this year and next year. So you could overspend on Donaldson contract so there would be more money to sign a Buxton or Sano to an extension.

Re: Twins 2020 Off-season Thread

Posted: Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:38 pm
by Jester1534
Camden0916 wrote:1. Sign 3B Josh Donaldson to a four-year, $92-million deal.

2. Acquire either SP Jon Gray or SP Robbie Ray without the inclusion of a top-six prospect -- OF/1B Alex Kirilloff, SS/CF Royce Lewis, SP/RP Brusdar Graterol, SP Jordan Balazovic, OF Trevor Larnach, and SP Jhoan Duran. Any combination of prospects after that is fair game as far as I'm concerned.

3. Sign RP Dellin Betances to a one-year, $10-million deal.

4. Sign SP/RP Alex Wood to a two-year, $14-million deal with a team option for 2021.


I'm down for this plan except for #4 there's no reason why in house option can't be our 5th starter with hopefully Graterol taking over by mid summer. I also don't think #2 is possible without giving up a Trevor Larnach type prospect aka somebody mid tier.

Re: Twins 2020 Off-season Thread

Posted: Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:39 pm
by Jester1534
Camden0916 wrote:
bleedspeed177 wrote:White Sox get Keuchel at 3 years, $55.5 million


Yep, that's gross. That's a bad deal in my estimation.


This awful signing by the white Sox. I believe Kuechel Fip was 4.76 last year the days of him being a Cy young winner are way past him.

Re: Twins 2020 Off-season Thread

Posted: Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:41 pm
by Monster
Camden0916 wrote:
bleedspeed177 wrote:White Sox get Keuchel at 3 years, $55.5 million


Yep, that's gross. That's a bad deal in my estimation.


What's a few extra million though right?!?! Lol Bumgarner taking less clearly makes this deal look really bad. I don't think I see it as a value deal overall. Just to compare tho Gibson got 3-30 and while Keuchel isn't the guy he once was I think it's fair to say he has a better track record and worth more than Gibson especially depending on the rest of your roster (infield defense). I'm blanking on what they have for starters outside of Giolito. I'm perfectly fine on them passing on that deal for Dallas K.

Re: Twins 2020 Off-season Thread

Posted: Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:42 pm
by Jester1534
monsterpile wrote:
bleedspeed177 wrote:Cron and School sign with Tigers for 6.1m each.


I think that's is a fair price and depending on need and if those guys stay healthy they could be pretty good value.


This shows the twins were right to decline Cron option for 7.7 mil and it also shows they were not interested bringing him back. This actually give me hope that they're going hard for Donaldson because why would they not just resign Cron for 600,000 more dollars on a 1 year contract. It's because they have plans for someone else playing first base that's why.

Re: Twins 2020 Off-season Thread

Posted: Sat Dec 21, 2019 10:45 pm
by Jester1534
monsterpile wrote:
Camden0916 wrote:
bleedspeed177 wrote:White Sox get Keuchel at 3 years, $55.5 million


Yep, that's gross. That's a bad deal in my estimation.


What's a few extra million though right?!?! Lol Bumgarner taking less clearly makes this deal look really bad. I don't think I see it as a value deal overall. Just to compare tho Gibson got 3-30 and while Keuchel isn't the guy he once was I think it's fair to say he has a better track record and worth more than Gibson especially depending on the rest of your roster (infield defense). I'm blanking on what they have for starters outside of Giolito. I'm perfectly fine on them passing on that deal for Dallas K.


Honestly Monster theres a case where Gibson outpiched Kuechel last year based on advance metrics. Kuechel has 4.76 FIP and Gibson had 4.3 FIP

Re: Twins 2020 Off-season Thread

Posted: Sun Dec 22, 2019 1:56 pm
by bleedspeed
The Astro's passed on him twice in Free Agency. That is interesting to me. This was his first year since 2013 with a FIP over 4.x Not sure what was that likely caused it.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/dallas-keuchel/9434/stats?position=P

Re: Twins 2020 Off-season Thread

Posted: Mon Dec 23, 2019 1:51 am
by Camden [enjin:6601484]
David Price is going to be a Minnesota Twins isn't he... Hmm. Assuming the Red Sox eat most of that $96-million owed and the Twins don't have to send much of anything in prospects, that would be a savvy get. Hopefully that would come on the heels of adding Josh Donaldson.

Re: Twins 2020 Off-season Thread

Posted: Mon Dec 23, 2019 9:30 am
by Jester1534
Camden wrote:David Price is going to be a Minnesota Twins isn't he... Hmm. Assuming the Red Sox eat most of that $96-million owed and the Twins don't have to send much of anything in prospects, that would be a savvy get. Hopefully that would come on the heels of adding Josh Donaldson.


Nick Gordon and filler porbablty get that number down to around 55-60 million. Just need to remember the better prospect you give up the more salary the Red Sox eat. I rather have Sale than price, his veloity was down last year but we've seen that it doesnt matter who the pitcher is Wes Johnson can get 2 more mph on there fastball.

Re: Twins 2020 Off-season Thread

Posted: Mon Dec 23, 2019 9:47 am
by Camden [enjin:6601484]
jester1534 wrote:
Camden wrote:David Price is going to be a Minnesota Twins isn't he... Hmm. Assuming the Red Sox eat most of that $96-million owed and the Twins don't have to send much of anything in prospects, that would be a savvy get. Hopefully that would come on the heels of adding Josh Donaldson.


Nick Gordon and filler porbablty get that number down to around 55-60 million. Just need to remember the better prospect you give up the more salary the Red Sox eat. I rather have Sale than price, his veloity was down last year but we've seen that it doesnt matter who the pitcher is Wes Johnson can get 2 more mph on there fastball.


I would also prefer Chris Sale, but I think the price tag on him as far as prospects go is much higher and Boston is more likely to let Price go for less. Depending on how much money the Red Sox eat and who the Twins have to give up, either of them could be decent pickups. At this point, it's not like Minnesota has a tremendous amount of options.