2022 Off-Season Around the League

[Lipoli390]

And yet whoever gets the best player in the trade usually -- not always -- winds up satisfied with the move. The media ridicules the Timberwolves for nearly any "big" move that they make so this isn't anything new.

Had a team located in New York, Miami, or Los Angeles made the same exact trade -- even with the overpay -- it's likely that the tone would be much different. There would be more praise for that organization acquiring an elite player and enhancing their chances of contending. The difference here is that it's a mid-market team pushing in the chips and none of them had any clue that it was in the works.

Here's another more positive way that I've thought about this Rudy Gobert trade. Would I trade Karl-Anthony Towns for what the Utah Jazz just received for Gobert? And the answer I firmly stand by is that I would not.

Cam - I like your KAT-trade analogy as a good way to put the Gobert deal in perspective. But here's the caveat I'd add. I wouldn't deal KAT for the Gobert return because of where KAT and the Wolves are at right now. KAT just turned 26, entering the prime of his career. He's paired with another 26-year old former all-star, DLO. And the Wolves are a young talented team clearly on the rise with Edwards and McDaniels. In contrast, the Gobert is a 30-year old, entering the tail end of his prime, on a team that had clearly hit the wall and was ready to begin a rebuild. If the Wolves were in the same place now as Utah - repeatedly stalled in the playoffs year after year and over the luxury tax threshold with a 30-year old KAT and an unhappy Donovan Mitchell -- I'd trade KAT for the haul we gave up in a heartbeat. In fact, I'd trade him for less.

You and I are pretty much on the same page when it comes to the Gobert deal. Neither one of us would have done the deal, but we both see the merit to getting Gobert and how it will likely significantly elevate this team - at least in the short run. But the lopsided nature of this deal, in light of its timing (i.e., the Wolves didn't need a hale Mary) continues to stick in my craw. It seems clear that Ainge was intent on trading Gobert and beginning a rebuild. I don't believe there was another team close to giving up the overall value the Wolves gave up for Gobert. Keeping Kessler and putting lottery or top 10 protections on the 2027 and 2029 picks (years beyond Gobert's contract) would have fallen within the range of reasonableness in my view. I still don't think I would have done that deal, but it would have mitigated risk in the out-years of the deal with pick protections for 2027 and 2029 and with Kessler in the fold to step in after Gobert's contract ends in 2026 or if age catches up with him before that.

[Monster]

Can you imagine if the Wolves gave up 3 protected first round picks and Naz Reid to move up to draft #11th? That's basically what OKC did. It was an overpay I absolutely get why they did it but it was an overpay.

[Sundog]

I don't know anything about Connelly, except what he's done. What he's done in MN is to put together what looks to be the best Wolves team in since 2004, maximizing KAT's prime and giving Ant/Jaden the opportunity to grow through experiencing the crucible of serious playoff basketball and expectations. It's not just the Gobert trade, it's the addition of proven and inexpensive veterans with playoff experience in Anderson, Forbes, Rivers. Giving up all that draft capital is a hard pill, but what Connelly and his team has done to field an NBA finals-level team in a small market is undeniable. I wouldn't have done the Gobert deal, but I think that may be because I wouldn't have had the guts to do it.

The risk is huge and significant but the bet's been made. The only thing left is to play out the hand.

[Lipoli390]

Another note on a possible Knicks deal for Donovan Mitchell. The article I copied refers to the Knicks having 8 future 1st round picks to work with. Actually, the Knicks have 11 future 1st round picks over the next 7 years (including their own). In addition, they have four definite incoming second round picks in the next seven years - Utah's 2024, Detroit's 2024, Brooklyn's 2025 and Detroit's 2025 -- offset by only two outgoing 2nd-round picks. Obviously, the Utah and Detroit picks in 2024 will likely be near the top of the 2nd round; same probably for Brooklyn's 2025 2nd-round pick. So in addition to having 11 future 1st-round picks, the Knicks have 9 future 2nd round picks to work with.

The Wolves gave up Kessler and four of their next seven 1st-round picks, which leaves the Wolves with 3 1st-round picks in the next seven years. The Wolves traded their 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 and 2027 2nd round picks in prior deals; they have only two incoming 2nd round picks (2023 from NY and the least favorable 2025 from Miami, Indiana or Spurs). So the Wolves have only two 2nd-round picks in the next 7 years. Think about it. The Wolves have only 3 first round picks and 4 second-round picks in the next 7 years and two of those 2nd-rounders aren't until 2028 and 2029. I'm not sure everyone appreciates just how much the Wolves have depleted their draft capital in the wake of the Gobert deal. It's stunning.

The Knicks could give up Toppin (a recent top-10 pick and arguably a better value than Kessler) plus four future 1st-round picks like the Wolves and still have 7 first-round picks in the next 7 years plus three incoming 2nd-round picks from Utah, Detroit and Brooklyn that will be nearly equivalent to low 1st-round picks. I could see the Knicks giving up Toppin and Grimes (along with salary) plus the same pick package the Wolves gave up, while adding their incoming Utah and Brooklyn 2nd-round picks. That would be a balanced win-win for both teams. It would give the Knicks a young star in Donovan Mitchell to combine with three other young talented players in Brunson, Barrett and Mitchell Robinson without mortgaging their future. Therefore, that deal would appropriately not be ridiculed by NBA players and commentators around the Country.

Bottom line is that, even if the Knicks give up more draft capital to get Donovan than the Wolves gave up to get Rudy, the Knicks will undoubtedly have far more 1st and 2nd round draft capital than the Wolves have in the aftermath of their respective deals. And the Knicks will also have a better age match between their incoming star (Donovan Mitchell) and their key young talent (Brunson, Barrett, Mitchell Robinson) than the Wolves will have with their incoming 30-year old Gobert and 21 year old Edwards. I understand that KAT is only four years younger than Gobert, but the Wolves wouldn't do the Gobert deal if it were just KAT and DLO. In other words, I agree with Draymond Green that the Gobert deal is tied to expectations related to the Wolves top talent, Anthony Edwards.

Will the Wolves be a better team with Gobert, KAT, Edwards and DLO than the Knicks will be with Donovan Mitchell, Brunson, Barrett, Mitchell Robinson and Quickly? Yes. But at what cost? And wouldn't the Wolves have still been better than the Knicks (and most other teams in the West) with KAT, DLO, Edwards, McDaniels, Beverley and either Capela or Myles Turner while still retaining Kessler and still having at least 5 or 6 of their next 7 1st-round picks instead of 3? (I'm assuming the Wolves would have moved Beasley, Vando or Naz and one future 1st for Capela or Myles Turner).

I'm having a hard time getting over what I consider to be an unnecessary lopsided deal the Wolves made for Gobert, even though I see how the addition of Gobert will likely elevate the team's play in the next couple years in spite of losing Beverley, Vando and Beasley. The operative word is "unnecessary." I'd feel differently if the Wolves were in a situation like the Celtics when they traded for a 31-year old KG. At that time, the Celtics had a 30-year old star Paul Pierce who had taken the team as far as it could go. The Celtics had clearly hit a ceiling they couldn't surmount and the window of their 30-year old star, Paul Pierce, was on the verge of closing. So it made sense for them to cash out for 30 year old stars like KG and Ray Allen, who were of the same vintage as Pierce. And even then, they didn't give up as much overall value as the Wolves just gave up for Gobert.

I know I should be excited about the Wolves acquisition of Rudy Gobert. And I suppose I will become excited once the season starts and the Wolves are winning. But I remain frustrated with a Wolves organization - from one front office to the next - that never seems to get it quite right. In my view, the current Wolves front office once again committed a blunder with the wrong deal at the wrong time - an unnecessary overpay with too much risk that was intended to catapult forward a Wolves team that was already moving forward - a Wolves team that could have secured or even accelerated its advance forward with other deals that would not have mortgaged the team's future.

[Lipoli390]

Getting back to the Knicks, I hope they fall flat on their face next season. That's not because I dislike New York, the Knicks franchise, Leon Rose or Tom Thibodeau, although I'll admit I don't like Leon Rose. It's because the Wolves have the Knicks 2023 2nd-round pick and I'd like that pick to be as high as possible. :)

[Sundog]

Sure, Lip, that's a rational, sensible take, and I agree with much of it.

But there are other factors at play, beyond draft assets. #1, how sure are we that KAT will ever be a tent pole alpha, able to lead a team deep in the playoffs? Not very -- we all agree he's a massive talent, but he can be a head case at times, getting in the way of his and the team's success. Gobert shores that weakness up.

#2, Will Ant make the kind progress that he'll need to make to reach his potential, if he doesn't experience what it takes to win a playoff series? That's hard to do without that crucible experience. Given #1, will he get that experience without a tent pole alpha? Again, getting Gobert makes it much more likely that he gets that experience and grows into being a tent pole alpha himself. This team prior to the deal may not even have made the playoffs next season, even with a Capella addition. The rest of the West got sooo much better -- kawhi is back, George is healthy, Zion is back, AD is back, Golden State is all the way back, Memphis will be better, Jamal Murray is back.

#3, Same analysis with Jaden as #2. To get where he is, Jaden needed playing time. To get where he needs to go, Jaden needs significant playoff experience.

I dunno... I guess this will be my last post on this subject. Would I have done this deal - probably not. The risks are undeniable, but whether the risks are too great might primarily depend on one's tolerance for risk. There are clear, undeniable massive upsides to the deal. And we're not discussing *whether* to do the deal -- and the deal is done. It's fine to hate the deal, but love how it sets the Wolves up for potential success in the next 2-3 years, and maybe longer.

[Lipoli390]

Sure, Lip, that's a rational, sensible take, and I agree with much of it.

But there are other factors at play, beyond draft assets. #1, how sure are we that KAT will ever be a tent pole alpha, able to lead a team deep in the playoffs? Not very -- we all agree he's a massive talent, but he can be a head case at times, getting in the way of his and the team's success. Gobert shores that weakness up.

#2, Will Ant make the kind progress that he'll need to make to reach his potential, if he doesn't experience what it takes to win a playoff series? That's hard to do without that crucible experience. Given #1, will he get that experience without a tent pole alpha? Again, getting Gobert makes it much more likely that he gets that experience and grows into being a tent pole alpha himself. This team prior to the deal may not even have made the playoffs next season, even with a Capella addition. The rest of the West got sooo much better -- kawhi is back, George is healthy, Zion is back, AD is back, Golden State is all the way back, Memphis will be better, Jamal Murray is back.

#3, Same analysis with Jaden as #2. To get where he is, Jaden needed playing time. To get where he needs to go, Jaden needs significant playoff experience.

I dunno... I guess this will be my last post on this subject. Would I have done this deal - probably not. The risks are undeniable, but whether the risks are too great might primarily depend on one's tolerance for risk. There are clear, undeniable massive upsides to the deal. And we're not discussing *whether* to do the deal -- and the deal is done. It's fine to hate the deal, but love how it sets the Wolves up for potential success in the next 2-3 years, and maybe longer.

Good take, Sundog. The only point I would disagree with is the Wolves not making the playoffs with Myles Turner or Capela. Adding one of those two while retaining Beverley would have, in my view, kept pace with the rest of the Conference when you also factor in the expected improvement from young players Edwards, McDaniels and Nowell. Having said that, no doubt the Wolves are still a better team next season with Gobert than they would have been with Beverley, Kessler and either Myles Turner or Clint Capela. How much better? Hard to say.

I just don't like skipping steps or shooting for the moon unless I have to. But I acknowledge that's an obviously more risk-averse perspective than others, including Connelly, have. I guess the good thing about this move, unlike many Wolves moves in the past, is that there's a solid argument in favor of it. We're all familiar with the moves of past Wolves' regimes that had no good arguments to support them.

So just as you declared this your last post on whether the Gobert deal was a good one, I'm going to declare this as my last post on the subject. Now it's on to discussing who will fill the Wolves last two roster spots and how good this team can be. :)

[Lipoli390]

https://twitter.com/espnnba/status/1549477655099019264?s=21

The incredibly reliable NBA reporter, Woj, offers some interesting information and insights on the a possible Knicks-Jazz deal for Donovan Mitchell. And he also provides an interesting insight into the Wolves Gobert deal.

Woj says the Wolves weren't in a bidding situation and that the Jazz did the deal when the Wolves made them "an offer that was pretty easy to accept." He said the same thing is happening now with Donovan Mitchell. Apparently, the Knicks and Jazz talked last week with no agreement and now the Jazz are talking with other teams to gauge the interest around the League in Donovan. He thinks a deal will eventually get done.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

https://twitter.com/espnnba/status/1549477655099019264?s=21

The incredibly reliable NBA reporter, Woj, offers some interesting information and insights on the a possible Knicks-Jazz deal for Donovan Mitchell. And he also provides an interesting insight into the Wolves Gobert deal.

Woj says the Wolves weren't in a bidding situation and that the Jazz did the deal when the Wolves made them "an offer that was pretty easy to accept." He said the same thing is happening now with Donovan Mitchell. Apparently, the Knicks and Jazz talked last week with no agreement and now the Jazz are talking with other teams to gauge the interest around the League in Donovan. He thinks a deal will eventually get done.

Good. Why even wait for a bidding situation to develop if you're confident in what you're buying? That means the Timberwolves were able to execute a blockbuster trade for an elite player still in his prime before other teams were able to sniff it out and drive up the value and/or end up acquiring said player themselves. We could [wrongly] be upset with Tim Connelly and the front office for "bidding against themselves" but the unfortunate reality is that there are a number of teams that would have had interest in trading for Rudy Gobert, and the Utah Jazz, in fact, did not have to trade him this summer. It seems to me like the Timberwolves beat everyone to the punch and made the Jazz an attractive offer that they also deemed manageable considering the assets or players they kept out of the deal.

In all honesty, I have zero issues with the execution or thought process Minnesota had with that trade. I, personally, would have targeted a less expensive option in Jakob Poeltl or Clint Capela, but their vision is plenty acceptable to me as well even while acknowledging the risk and future complications.

In short, fuck those picks. Hop on the bandwagon. The best era of Timberwolves basketball is likely ahead of us and that should be exciting for us fans. From focusing on annual draft lotteries to imagining a championship banner in the rafters. We deserve a winner.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Golden State signed Mac McClung to a one-year deal, as expected. Personally, I would have signed him to the same exact deal Josh Minott just received. I think he's worth the roster spot. Another sneaky-good find for the Warriors and I think everyone else missed an opportunity to get a solid young player for cheap.