FNG wrote:lipoli390 wrote:Chris Fedor: The Cavs have made what I'm told is a multi-year contract offer to Collin Sexton, one that they feel is reasonable based on the fact that he has no market and he has no other offers. - via Spotify
I've been surprised at the apparent lack of interest in Sexton around the League. I say apparent because we don't know what activity or conversations have been taking place behind the scenes. And honestly, we haven't seen much interest around the League in restricted free agents generally. In any event, the Cavs have apparently offered Sexton a 4-year/40 million deal - which would be around $13.3 million per year.
That's even slightly short of Malik Beasley money. That offer seems lower to me for a young PG who has averaged 20 points per game while shooting 46% from the field and 38% from behind the arc. He was viewed as a really quick, explosive small guard coming out of college. I haven't seen a lot of him in games, but watching his video highlighted this morning I saw a very crafty three-level scorer with a terrific floater and very good pull up jumper to go with great 3-point range off the catch and the bounce. He's also a very crafty finisher at the rim. He's only averaged 3.3 assists per game, but I saw him make some nice reads and passes in the video's I saw.
He hasn't been a good defender, but he's not even 24 years old yet and missed nearly all of last season in his development. Also, consider the following excerpt from Draft.net's review of Collin coming out of college, which is typical of all his draft reviews generally:
"His aggressive style combined with his explosiveness point towards high upside on the defensive end at the next level ... Sexton also is not afraid of the big moment and does not back down from tougher competition ... He plays with tremendous passion and seems to perform his best in big games ... With his two-way skillset and determination, Sexton has a chance to be a quality lead guard in the NBA ..."
I've always had my eye on Sexton as a potential sign-and-trade candidate for the Wolves before the Gobert deal. I don't think Sexton is a particularly good fit next to Garland because it makes their backcourt too small. But I could see Sexton fitting well next to Edwards. Sexton would have to develop his playmaking in that situation, but I think that's doable. I don't see any possible deal to bring him here now and I'm sure that possibility is not on Connelly's radar. But it will be interesting to see what happens with Sexton over the next few years. I think there will be a lot of teams in two years wishing they had made an effort (or more of an effort) to acquire him.
I keep checking your math on my vintage 1958 Burroughs adding machine, and I keep getting a different answer than you. I'm sure you're probably right though. It's time I get one of those new-fangled electric calculators I see all the kids using.
All joking aside, it probably doesn't surprise members here who know the kind of players I value that I am NOT a Sexton fan. I see him as a very undersized SG who is one of the worst defenders in the league. I don't disagree with his draft profile that says he had the potential to be a good NBA defender, but he hasn't even come close to mediocrity. Heck, he makes Malik Beasley look like Gary Payton! He can score, but he's an on/off nightmare on Cleaning the Glass, and also an ORtg/DRtg failure on BasketballRefererence. And the Cavs have been hoping that he would improve his playmaking for four years, but he still has a horrible A:TO ratio...just like he did in college. I think he is what he is at this point- a short SG who can get you a lot of buckets at an average efficient rate (55 career TS%), but whose horrible defense and lack of playmaking will always make him a minus player for his team. I haven't seen the rumors of what Cleveland (or other teams) have offered him, but the reports you cite mirror how I view him.
FNG - I've often wondered how you come up with some of your numbers. :). In any event, advanced stats have their place, but they're also often hard to decipher, difficult to compare, very team or situation-dependent, and differ wildly depending on the site. The basic stats -- points, assists, rebounds, steals, turnover, FG%, 3-point%, and FT% (including volumes) -- strike me as more reliable so long as the player has a significant number of minutes over multiple seasons. Sexton's career offensive numbers are really good, including 20 points on 46% shooting from the field and 38% from behind the arc. He's also been a terrific free throw shooter. Even more telling are his stats in his 2nd and 3rd seasons as he improved his scoring and shooting percentages significantly over his rookie year in each of those seasons. In his third season (age 22), he averaged 24.3 points on 47.5% shooting and 37.1% from behind the arc. Noteworthy is the fact that he also hit 81.5% of his free throws while getting to the line an impressive 6.4 times.
And no, he doesn't make Malik Beasley look like Gary Payton defensively. The two aren't comparable given their relative roles and minutes. He does, however, leave Beasley look like Okogie on the offensive end. OK, we're both exaggerating, but you get my point. Beasley is a 3-point shooter who is also a terrific rebounder with excellent athleticism. But Collin is a complete offensive player who scores at a high level and efficiently at all three levels. He also gets to the line and hits at a high percentage there as well. And he has the numbers to show it. 24.3 points on 47.5% FG shooting and over 80% on 6.4 trips to the line - maybe Sexton does make Beasley look like Okogie. :)
When it comes to "hoping he [Sexton] would improve his playmaking for four years," I'll just caution that he's only had three meaningful seasons since he only played 11 games last season due to injury. So I think he's far from a finished project to say the least. As you can see in draft scouting reports, he was viewed as having good defensive potential and I think it's way too soon to write off his defensive ability after only 3 full seasons playing on a lottery team.
Monster picked up on my central point about Sexton. It wasn't that we should expect to see him playing in an allstar game in the near future; it's the fact that he's going to end up with a cheaper contract than Beasley and that's a bargain. A question for you is whether you'd take Sexton at $13.3 million per year for four years over DLO at $25 million per year for the next four years. Sexton's efficiency, athleticism and upside make that an intriguing question in my mind. By the way, I think it would be reasonable for the Wolves to extend DLO for the next four years at $25 million per year.
