AbeVigodaLive wrote:lipoli390 wrote:AbeVigodaLive wrote:lipoli390 wrote:AbeVigodaLive wrote:1. Lakers. Obviously loaded.
2. Jazz. Had the league's best record last season. Returns most of the team.
3. Warriors. A winning team without Thompson. And they could make a midseason move with the young lottery talent they've collected.
4. Suns. Made the NBA Finals.
5. Denver. 47 - 25 last season. Have the MVP... even if Murray is out for most of the year.
6. Dallas. Luka Doncic might be the frontrunner for MVP.
7. LA Clippers. Made the WCF, even without Kawhi Leonard. But it's reasonable to see them take a step back.
8. Memphis. Young, winning team on the upswing.
9. Portland. Always battling for the playoffs with Lillard around.
Barring catastrophic injury or (tank) trade... I don't see the Wolves in the same class as any of these teams.
So, then it's the Wolves vs. OKC, NOP, SAS, SAC and HOU. If the Wolves finish behind Houston, something has gone terribly terribly wrong with the franchise. And it looks like SAS is finally playing for tomorrow more than today by jettisoning the veterans. But doesn't every one of those other teams have just as much claim as the Wolves do for a distant 10th in the West? Each offers some promising potential... amid some bad mixes of talent and curious front office decisions.
[Note: OKC is the wild card. Will they purposely try to lose yet again? That team has made some smart moves for a rebuilding team. Just a matter of how long they want to play that game...]
We'll have to see how well the Clippers do without Kawhi Leonard for what will likely be the entire season. I'm still not sold on Memphis. Portland's teetering on the edge with an unhappy Lillard and a coaching change that I consider a step backwards for them. Klay Thompson's health is a significant question mark for the Warriors and I would expect Wiggins to take a step backwards next season.
Meanwhile, amidst all the pessimism in Wolves Land today, the team really does have a lot of talent in KAT, Ant, DLO, McDaniels and Beasley. And I think the Wolves finally have a high-caliber head coach. And as Q noted, the Wolves were 16-20 to close out last season. So I think they're a much better team heading into next season than their overall season record suggests. That said, a number of things need to break in a positive direction for the Wolves to make the playoffs. Some of those things are likely, some not so much. Here's my list:
LIKELY:
1. KAT stays healthy and improves defensively. Likely that he stays healthy since he was previously an iron man. The last couple years have been an aberration for him. Like that he improves defensively given his recent trajectory of improvement on that end and his competitiveness.
2. Ant improves his overall game. Likely based on his trajectory of improvement last season and the fact that most talented rookies make a sizable jump in their second season. I expect his shooting to be more efficient, his decision-making to be better, and his scoring to be up. I also think his defense will improve, if only because it was so bad last season, but also because he has the physical tools to be a great defender.
3. McDaniels improves his overall game. Likely based on how savvy he is and the typically substantial improvement players show in their second season.
4. Ant and Naz Reid improve their games. Likely that both continue to improve based on their trajectories of improvement thus far along with their age and the combination of desire and work ethic they have shows so far.
5. Beasley stays healthy and out of jail. Likely that he stays healthy. He stays in great shape and has never had trouble staying healthy before his ankle injury last season. And I'm sure he's been working out a lot in the prison gym with nothing else to do. As for staying out of jail, I'd say it's likely he'll stay out. The national recidivism rate is 44% - i.e., 44% of all those released from prison end up back in the clink within a year. That means, there's a 56% chance he stays out of prison for the season. So statistically, it's likely he'll stay out. :)
NOT SURE/UNLIKELY
1. DLO stays healthy. I'm not prepared to say it's unlikely. But his track record on this isn't good. So I'll just say I'm unsure.
2. DLO improves defensively. It's certainly possibly. He has the length and basketball IQ to be a decent defender. And he's shown flashes of good defense, which simply underscores the fact that his defensive failings result from a lack of effort and commitment. Unfortunately, that's not something I see changing. Therefore, I'll say unlikely but not out of the question.
3. Layman stays healthy and improves. I'll just say unsure on this one. But he does have some talent - athletic with a nice looking shooting stroke.
OVERALL
Overall, if healthy, I think this team will be at least as good as they were down the stretch last season, which was slightly under the .500 level. I also see some of the teams you listed faltering. So the potential for a 7th or 8th seed is there in my view. But just so you know I haven't taken leave of my senses, I'm not betting on it. :)
Fair enough. There's nothing wrong with being optimistic about the Wolves... but pessimistic about other teams. We're rube fans after all... that's why we're here! But if you have to avoid one specific bet...
Avoid betting on Russell as a "good" defender.
Lol. I'll take your advice to the bank!
Unfortunately, the odds are so slim... you'll have to put down about $800k to make $3.
Lol. I'm laughing on the outside, but crying on the inside.
