Official Draft Day Thread

[WildWolf2813]

Guys, don't overthink it.

If a team wants to give you some future 2's to move up to 31, it might be worth it to move down.

If there's someone at 31 TC likes long term, take him. I don't see this selection or Beringer last night being useful in future deals. Finch not playing rookies definitely in this case softens the blow of not knowing what's gonna happen with Beringer at least in the short term.

Last night at least determined that unless someone blows TC out of the water, Rudy's not going anywhere.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Will Beringer play more/less than the 86 career minutes Ndudi Ebi gave a perennial playoff team?

Just kidding.

I'm expecting some significant moves from the Timberwolves before the season, so I don't have much commentary on these draft picks... who are almost always crapshoots anyway.

As of now, the Wolves would need Dillingham to be a legit NBA starting PG next year. That seems like a lot to hang on one really young and unproven player. I think more backcourt help is incoming... just in case.



[Note: It's pretty amazing though for a guy to be drafted in the 1st round after only 3 or 4 years of organized basketball. I've been playing for XX years and I'm practically undraftable. I'm no Lip or Jester for chrissakes.]

[Lipoli390]

We all talk about TC being unpredictable. I think that’s fair, but I also see a method to what might otherwise appear as his madness. As I see it, TC’s approach to everything is simple and actually pretty predictable. What TC appears to do is identify a a very small number of players or prospects he really wants in priority order with one player in particular at the top and he then focuses on getting that player. Here are examples from previous years:

1. A few years ago he wanted Rudy and he didn’t hold back in his effort to get him.

2. The same year he traded for Rudy, he had his sights set on Minott in the second round and he maneuvered to get him.

3. The next year, TC had his sights set on Miller and he maneuvered to get him.

4. Last year, TC had his sights set on Dillingham and he surprised everyone by trading all the way up to #8 to get him in a deal that no one predicted.

TC did the same thing this year before the draft. He had his sights set on getting KD and according to the vast majority of reports he put the most attractive offer on the table but failed to get him only because KD did not want to come here and refused to commit to an extension here. To his credit, TC drew a line in the sand on trading significant assets for a one-year rental who wasn’t enthusiastic about coming here.

I’d say TC did the same thing in the first round yesterday. I thought it was interesting that he didn’t trade down in a draft he characterized as having little difference among prospects from 17-31. He didn’t budge even after Sorber was off the board. So I’m convinced TC had his sights set on Beringer and didn’t envision him falling to #17. Therefore, TC waited patiently until Memphis/Portland made its pick at #16. We’ll never know whether TC had Sorber as his main target with Beringer as #2. But I think it’s clear he had Beringer as the guy or one of maybe two guys he wanted but didn’t count on falling to #17 going into the draft. In other words, I think TC got his guy as they say. And I think it fits the way he operates. He knows who he wants and then focuses like a laser on getting him.

What does all this mean when it comes to predicting what TC will do to kick off tonight’s second round? Here’s how I would answer the question. If Fleming is TC’s guy, then TC will take him at #31 since he can’t expect Fleming to fall much if at all beyond that. If not Fleming, anyone TC might covet can likely be had later in the second round or from among undrafted free agents. While I’m far from an expert on this draft class, I can’t see any remaining prospect other than Fleming (and maybe Raynaud) who TC would likely be excited about. So my view is that TC will draft Fleming at 31 or trade the pick, specifically trading down for a later pick or more likely trading out for a future pick. Note we have zero picks in either round in 2027.

Assuming TC picks Fleming at 31, the next question is whether TC has a veteran trade target in mind as runner up to KD who he failed to get. My sense is that he doesn’t. I hated the idea of trading for KD, but I understand TC’s thinking. He saw KD as an offensive star just like he viewed Rudy as a defensive star several years ago. When TC sees a potentially gettable star he goes all out to get him - in my view often overpaying. Similarly, if he sees a potential star among draft prospects, he’ll go all out to get him as he did last season with Dilly. But otherwise, TC is pretty conservative with trades and draft decisions. Other than the KAT trade, which I believe was the product of financial necessity, TC’s big trades or trade efforts that have included giving up lots of value have been limited to the pursuit of stars. Otherwise, TC’s trades have been pretty conservative and constrained - e.g., the trade for Mike Conley.

All this tells me that we shouldn’t expect the Wolves to make a major trade unless it’s for Giannis or some other star player like Paul George, James Harden or maybe Fox. Maybe TC sees Derrick White as a guy at that level but I have my doubts. I don’t see any viable path to pursuing Giannis and I doubt TC would be interested in James Harden or Paul George. If there’s big game out there TC might pursue I suspect it would be Fox or White. Otherwise, I suspect we’ll see TC focus on re-signing his key guys and possibly making a smaller DLO/Mike Conley type trade involving Randle and/or Donte. If it’s a big trade for a star or quasi star like Fox or White then I see us parting with at least one of our two picks this year as part of that deal.

[Monster]

I'll add that in general I feel like one way or another all Connelly's consequential trades where he made a move for a player that helps more now Connelly also kept an eye on the future.

Gobert deal...this is a bit of a stretch at best as he moved Kessler multiple draft picks and even Vanderbilt for Gobert. However he didn't move McDaniels which I think pretty much everyone believed was a building block with Edwards. It also opened up roster spots which allowed him to add and or keep players they acquired with later picks or in FA. Nothing significant has happened with those roster spots so far but you never know.

Russell was not an old player when he was dealt for Conley who was an older player. Still Connelly also acquired NAW who was younger and also added 3 second round picks one of which is 31 this year. He didn't solve the PG situation long term but he really knocked it out of the park in the short term while adding what ended up being a pretty valuable draft pick.

Towns for Randle deal brought back a year older Randle and a valuable not old vet in Donte plus a draft pick they just used to draft an 18 year old promising center prospect.

Connelly has had some good luck with draft picks turning out to be more valuable than expected but still that's why you make some of these deals and acquire picks. That might be why cashing in on 31 might also make sense. I have more faith in Connelly finding a worthwhile player at some point in the 2nd round than just hoping for us to luck into something by having a selection.

So I think while Connelly is likely going to look to make some sort of move this off-season to help the guard situation I also think he is very strongly keeping his eye on the future of this roster because he has been doing that for quite a while. I also think there is some worthwhile options to help with at the very least guard depth in FA. I will not be surprised if he gets something for NAW in a sign and trade if NAW leaves as we expect. I think teams might be motivated to do some sort of sign and trade while allowing them to still sign another player because there is only so much money going around so their might be value in having more than just a vet min salary to offer worthwhile FAs.

[kekgeek]

Jace Fredrick mentioned this morning that Matt Lloyd says the raptors were offered future 1st last year for 31.

It will be interesting if the wolves would be interested if something like that was on the table.

[60WinTim]

The few 2nd round mocks put together after the 1st round all have the Wolves taking Fleming. Nice!

Q - I was thinking you should start a new thread for tonight's draft. But, if all we do is draft Fleming, we might as well all go to bed! So maybe this thread will do...

[Lipoli390]

I'll add that in general I feel like one way or another all Connelly's consequential trades where he made a move for a player that helps more now Connelly also kept an eye on the future.

Gobert deal...this is a bit of a stretch at best as he moved Kessler multiple draft picks and even Vanderbilt for Gobert. However he didn't move McDaniels which I think pretty much everyone believed was a building block with Edwards. It also opened up roster spots which allowed him to add and or keep players they acquired with later picks or in FA. Nothing significant has happened with those roster spots so far but you never know.

Russell was not an old player when he was dealt for Conley who was an older player. Still Connelly also acquired NAW who was younger and also added 3 second round picks one of which is 31 this year. He didn't solve the PG situation long term but he really knocked it out of the park in the short term while adding what ended up being a pretty valuable draft pick.

Towns for Randle deal brought back a year older Randle and a valuable not old vet in Donte plus a draft pick they just used to draft an 18 year old promising center prospect.

Connelly has had some good luck with draft picks turning out to be more valuable than expected but still that's why you make some of these deals and acquire picks. That might be why cashing in on 31 might also make sense. I have more faith in Connelly finding a worthwhile player at some point in the 2nd round than just hoping for us to luck into something by having a selection.

So I think while Connelly is likely going to look to make some sort of move this off-season to help the guard situation I also think he is very strongly keeping his eye on the future of this roster because he has been doing that for quite a while. I also think there is some worthwhile options to help with at the very least guard depth in FA. I will not be surprised if he gets something for NAW in a sign and trade if NAW leaves as we expect. I think teams might be motivated to do some sort of sign and trade while allowing them to still sign another player because there is only so much money going around so their might be value in having more than just a vet min salary to offer worthwhile FAs.

That’s a pretty good assessment, Monster, although I think you’re right that it’s a bit of a stretch to suggest the Rudy deal had an eye towards the future.

My sense is that the thing TC protects in his big-game deals isn’t the future but rather the team’s current core. In the Rudy deal, he saw the team’s core as Towns, Ant and Jaden so he gave up a ton of future assets rather than giving up any of his core guys. Similarly the trade proposals for KD apparently did not include Ant or Jaden. Some reports suggested Rudy was included, but I believe the reports that it was Randle and Donte. I suspect TC was willing to include Dilly or TSJ along with Donte as an alternative to giving up Rudy who I think TC views as part of our current core. My sense is that TC won’t give up players he sees as core to the current team but for big game he’s willing to give up valuable assets that relate more to the future - future picks and young unproven high-upside players. That sets him apart from Sam Presti.

That said, I think he does protect future-oriented assets generally except when pursuing big game. So I agree with you that TC will keep his eye on the future in any deals he makes this summer UNLESS TC goes after Giannis or someone at that level in which case he’ll protect the core - Ant and Jaden - but be willing to give up our picks this year along with Dilly and/or TSJ and others.

[Monster]

I'll add that in general I feel like one way or another all Connelly's consequential trades where he made a move for a player that helps more now Connelly also kept an eye on the future.

Gobert deal...this is a bit of a stretch at best as he moved Kessler multiple draft picks and even Vanderbilt for Gobert. However he didn't move McDaniels which I think pretty much everyone believed was a building block with Edwards. It also opened up roster spots which allowed him to add and or keep players they acquired with later picks or in FA. Nothing significant has happened with those roster spots so far but you never know.

Russell was not an old player when he was dealt for Conley who was an older player. Still Connelly also acquired NAW who was younger and also added 3 second round picks one of which is 31 this year. He didn't solve the PG situation long term but he really knocked it out of the park in the short term while adding what ended up being a pretty valuable draft pick.

Towns for Randle deal brought back a year older Randle and a valuable not old vet in Donte plus a draft pick they just used to draft an 18 year old promising center prospect.

Connelly has had some good luck with draft picks turning out to be more valuable than expected but still that's why you make some of these deals and acquire picks. That might be why cashing in on 31 might also make sense. I have more faith in Connelly finding a worthwhile player at some point in the 2nd round than just hoping for us to luck into something by having a selection.

So I think while Connelly is likely going to look to make some sort of move this off-season to help the guard situation I also think he is very strongly keeping his eye on the future of this roster because he has been doing that for quite a while. I also think there is some worthwhile options to help with at the very least guard depth in FA. I will not be surprised if he gets something for NAW in a sign and trade if NAW leaves as we expect. I think teams might be motivated to do some sort of sign and trade while allowing them to still sign another player because there is only so much money going around so their might be value in having more than just a vet min salary to offer worthwhile FAs.

That’s a pretty good assessment, Monster, although I think you’re right that it’s a bit of a stretch to suggest the Rudy deal had an eye towards the future.

My sense is that the thing TC protects in his big-game deals isn’t the future but rather the team’s current core. In the Rudy deal, he saw the team’s core as Towns, Ant and Jaden so he gave up a ton of future assets rather than giving up any of his core guys. Similarly the trade proposals for KD apparently did not include Ant or Jaden. Some reports suggested Rudy was included, but I believe the reports that it was Randle and Donte. I suspect TC was willing to include Dilly or TSJ along with Donte as an alternative to giving up Rudy who I think TC views as part of our current core. My sense is that TC won’t give up players he sees as core to the current team but for big game he’s willing to give up valuable assets that relate more to the future - future picks and young unproven high-upside players. That sets him apart from Sam Presti.

That said, I think he does protect future-oriented assets generally except when pursuing big game. So I agree with you that TC will keep his eye on the future in any deals he makes this summer UNLESS TC goes after Giannis or someone at that level in which case he’ll protect the core - Ant and Jaden - but be willing to give up our picks this year along with Dilly and/or TSJ and others.

Lip you had a good post as well it was interesting we were both thinking about how TC approaches making moves! I think it's a good way of looking at it as core players. I think that's a smart way of looking at a roster too. I struggle a little with taking too much from the Durant situation other than Connelly was interested and was willing to put a real offer out there. What that offer actually looked like I think...we probably will never actually know and like I have said on another thread what else might have Connelly asked back?

It will be interesting to compare the careers of the 2 bigs OKC and MIN drafted to see who made the right selection.

[D-Loser25]

A couple thoughts as we go into this 2nd round with 31.

I see a couple areas the Wolves can address this roster and they don't have to be with this pick but obviously it would make sense to do so. Here they are in no particular order

Ball handling. The Wolves might be light on this especially if NAW leaves. Ideally they add some sort of PG type of guy but it could be a combo guard. Dillingham could be the answer here.

Impact scoring on the perimeter. Again Dillingham could be this guy as well as TSJ but another option wouldn't hurt.

True PF option as depth. Having a better option behind Randle and Naz would help and it could also keep McDaniels from sliding down to play PF. Fleming looks like he could maybe be a nice option here.

Defensive center as depth behind Gobert. I could get excited about taking an older more ready to play guy here but something to consider is whether Jesse Edwards or someone else they could sign with a 2-way deal could fill this role. I like the options at 31 for a more ready center than Jesse Edward's but maybe after a season in the G-league and practicing with the Wolves sole as well maybe he would be more ready than we might think especially compared to one of these guys that would still be a rookie big.

To me I want the Wolves to keep adding talent and depth to their roster however they can. Maybe it's by making a more significant trade or maybe it's continuing to add to the roster and developing it. One thing I would like to see if the Wolves continue to add to their arsenal of players so they can keep playing more than one way.

Good thoughts, Monster. But if we keep both Randle and Naz, then another veteran PF is the last thing I’d be looking to add. Randle and Naz are both starting caliber PFs. And sliding Jaden to the PF position is often a good thing.

I don’t think Jesse Edwards is an NBA caliber player. He should become an Iowa resident.

I would think TC will prioritize getting a veteran PG as a bridge to Dilly. I could see TC going for a big score and giving up Dilly to get a guy like Derrick White. Pick 31 could be part of a package for Derrick.

I’d be good with any reasonable trade for white (and that would probably have to include Dilly). Otherwise, I’d take Fleming tonight and the look to trade Randle for a couple smaller pieces, one being a less expensive vet starting PG and/or a future protected first. It might be a half step back, but we’re still a playoff team. with the addition of Fleming, I’d love our group of young talent. In addition to getting more PT next year for Dilly and Shannon, I think we really need to get Miller some minutes also. Might be a little small at backup Center next year until Joan is ready, but maybe Garza or a vet min guy can be a bridge for a year. Bottom line though, Randle needs to go. Get Fleming in here and this is an outstanding draft for TC

[D-Loser25]

Actually there seems to be 4 great options here and they all fit a need (once we trade Randle) Id be good with Kalkbenner, Raynaud and penda here at 31 also and I trust TC to get the right one