Jim Mora playoffs thread

[FNG]

The three TimberLakers were a combined -44 last night :o ! The Wolves are now a full 4 games ahead of the Lakers...I'm confident we will finish ahead of them, even if Davis and LBJ are healthy.

Meanwhile, the Wolves find themselves only a game behind the Suns for 4th place. The Suns are loaded now though, so I'm not holding out much hope of catching them if Durant's knee heals up (he's out tonight). Can we pass Dallas and the Clippers, each just a half game ahead of us?

[FNG]

Close circuit to Tim:

Tim, with such a close race developing in the Western Conference, I spent an hour yesterday going through the rest of the schedule for each team and forecasting their year-end record...similar to what you do with your KOM. It's a difficult process, because you have to make some assumptions about key injuries. I assume that you adjust your KOM if a significant injury happens that is expected to last a while (for instance, I assume you would adjust the Lakers' win total if LeBron was declared out for the season). Anyway, I currently have the Wolves in a 3-way tie for 7th. Here is my current year-end forecast:

3: Suns 47
4. Mavs 45
5. Clips 44
6. Kings 44
7. Wolves 42
8. Pels 42
9. Lakers 42
10. GS 41
11. OkC 40
12. Port 39
13. Utah 39

I think there has been some clarity in the past week, and I think Portland and Utah will be on the outside looking in come playoff time. The rube in me wants to believe that what we saw in Dallas was real and the Wolves end up with more than 42 wins, but I'm playing it cautious right now. Where does your KOM differ a lot from my forecast?

[60WinTim]

This is the first time I have built a spreadsheet for the KOM! The KOM classifies teams into three tiers and assumes HOME teams will win if they are in a tier equal to or above their opponent. In the spreadsheet I enter a night's wins and losses, and spreadsheet forecasts the remainder of a team's record based on those classifications.

I have not made any adjustments for injuries, yet, and have only put in the obvious top and bottom teams. After the All-Star break I well re-evaluate the tiers. The Suns, Mavs and Clippers will likely be bumped into the top tier. And there might be some teams deserving to be bumped into the bottom tier. If the Wolves were to win a couple road games in their first road trip after the All-Star break, then they would be worthy of the Top Tier.

Code: Select all

Top Teams:		76ers,Bucks,Cavaliers,Celtics,Grizzlies,Nuggets

Bottom Teams:		Hornets,Pacers,Pistons,Rockets,Spurs


Projections:
Seed	Team		Wins	Losses
3.	Mavericks	44	38
4.	Clippers	44	38
5.	Pelicans	42	40
6.	Kings		42	40
7.	Lakers		41	41
8.	Thunder		41	41
9.	Suns		41	41
10.	Blazers		40	42
11.	Warriors	40	42
12.	Wolves		39	43
13.	Jazz		39	43

[Edit: Hmm.. I'll have to work on my copy/paste formatting... ]

[Q-is-here]

I'm kind of hoping some of the teams we play in the stretch run that are currently fighting for playoff positioning either a) secure a top seed and may do load management when they play us (Boston, Phoenix??) or b) fall out of the playoff race entirely and go into full tank/development mode (Lakers, Pels??)

We need that "luck buffer" like we had when Denver sat 4 of their starters and when Utah's front office essentially signaled to their players they had given up on this season the night we played them. Because on paper we have a really brutal stretch if all the teams we play are full strength and fighting hard for the playoffs.

[FNG]

This is the first time I have built a spreadsheet for the KOM! The KOM classifies teams into three tiers and assumes HOME teams will win if they are in a tier equal to or above their opponent. In the spreadsheet I enter a night's wins and losses, and spreadsheet forecasts the remainder of a team's record based on those classifications.

I have not made any adjustments for injuries, yet, and have only put in the obvious top and bottom teams. After the All-Star break I well re-evaluate the tiers. The Suns, Mavs and Clippers will likely be bumped into the top tier. And there might be some teams deserving to be bumped into the bottom tier. If the Wolves were to win a couple road games in their first road trip after the All-Star break, then they would be worthy of the Top Tier.

Code: Select all

Top Teams:		76ers,Bucks,Cavaliers,Celtics,Grizzlies,Nuggets

Bottom Teams:		Hornets,Pacers,Pistons,Rockets,Spurs


Projections:
Seed	Team		Wins	Losses
3.	Mavericks	44	38
4.	Clippers	44	38
5.	Pelicans	42	40
6.	Kings		42	40
7.	Lakers		41	41
8.	Thunder		41	41
9.	Suns		41	41
10.	Blazers		40	42
11.	Warriors	40	42
12.	Wolves		39	43
13.	Jazz		39	43

[Edit: Hmm.. I'll have to work on my copy/paste formatting... ]

Looks like our biggest variances are the Suns (where you perhaps are bearish on their health or not giving enough credit to adding Durant) and the wolves (where perhaps I'm giving too much credit to the upgrade at PG and return of KAT). I hope I'm right!

[Jester1534]

This is the first time I have built a spreadsheet for the KOM! The KOM classifies teams into three tiers and assumes HOME teams will win if they are in a tier equal to or above their opponent. In the spreadsheet I enter a night's wins and losses, and spreadsheet forecasts the remainder of a team's record based on those classifications.

I have not made any adjustments for injuries, yet, and have only put in the obvious top and bottom teams. After the All-Star break I well re-evaluate the tiers. The Suns, Mavs and Clippers will likely be bumped into the top tier. And there might be some teams deserving to be bumped into the bottom tier. If the Wolves were to win a couple road games in their first road trip after the All-Star break, then they would be worthy of the Top Tier.

Code: Select all

Top Teams:		76ers,Bucks,Cavaliers,Celtics,Grizzlies,Nuggets

Bottom Teams:		Hornets,Pacers,Pistons,Rockets,Spurs


Projections:
Seed	Team		Wins	Losses
3.	Mavericks	44	38
4.	Clippers	44	38
5.	Pelicans	42	40
6.	Kings		42	40
7.	Lakers		41	41
8.	Thunder		41	41
9.	Suns		41	41
10.	Blazers		40	42
11.	Warriors	40	42
12.	Wolves		39	43
13.	Jazz		39	43

[Edit: Hmm.. I'll have to work on my copy/paste formatting... ]

Looks like our biggest variances are the Suns (where you perhaps are bearish on their health or not giving enough credit to adding Durant) and the wolves (where perhaps I'm giving too much credit to the upgrade at PG and return of KAT). I hope I'm right!

Honestly could see the Mavs becoming a disaster if they drop a couple more games. Kyrie already telling reporters stop asking him about next year. I feel like its not going to make much to turn that whole situation on fire.

[60WinTim]

Assuming things go according to Hoyle, the Wolves will be tied with the Clippers for the 5th seed going into the All-Star break. Not too shabby considering how things felt a couple weeks ago!

Let's go Hoyle!

[FNG]

Assuming things go according to Hoyle, the Wolves will be tied with the Clippers for the 5th seed going into the All-Star break. Not too shabby considering how things felt a couple weeks ago!

Let's go Hoyle!

Yep. But I'm guessing your KOM has the same 5-game losing streak I have after we take care of Charlotte...GS, two games in LA, Sac-town, and home to Philly. It's not unlikely that we steal a game or two in that stretch, especially if KAT somehow returns, but I'm pretty sure we will at least be underdogs in all five.

Of course it's imperative that we take care of Washington tonight, and they are playing quite well right now (just took care of slumping Portland on their court). We're only 3-point favorites, but I'm thinking two more days of practice are going to make us even sharper than we were in Dallas. Go Wolves!

[60WinTim]

Assuming things go according to Hoyle, the Wolves will be tied with the Clippers for the 5th seed going into the All-Star break. Not too shabby considering how things felt a couple weeks ago!

Let's go Hoyle!

Yep. But I'm guessing your KOM has the same 5-game losing streak I have after we take care of Charlotte...GS, two games in LA, Sac-town, and home to Philly. It's not unlikely that we steal a game or two in that stretch, especially if KAT somehow returns, but I'm pretty sure we will at least be underdogs in all five.

Of course it's imperative that we take care of Washington tonight, and they are playing quite well right now (just took care of slumping Portland on their court). We're only 3-point favorites, but I'm thinking two more days of practice are going to make us even sharper than we were in Dallas. Go Wolves!

Yes, the KOM with its current tiers has the Wolves going on a 5-game losing skid after the Charlotte game. I hate to jinx it, but I can't help but feel some opTIMism creeping in for the current roster, even sans KAT. If I bump the Wolves into the top tier they should go 3-1 on that nasty road trip (I assume Curry will not be back).

You gotta love the consistency the Wolves showed in the Mavs game. If they keep that type of play going, they will beat a lot of teams. Hopefully starting with tonight! Kyrie went ballistic in the 4th quarter. But when Edwards checked back in he really put the clamps on Kyrie initiating offense -- Kyrie did not score against him on any initial attack. His scoring came on second chances, or when Edwards was not guarding him. Another rebound or two, or few more FTs made, and that game does not go down to the wire. It was a really solid game for the Wolves.

[FNG]

I agree, Tim...there was a lot to like about that Dallas game. Great defensive rotations throughout the game, excellent ball movement, and then extraordinary defense by Ant and Jaden (and Taurean) on the final possession.

It's interesting that you have the Wolves finishing with 39 wins, and I have them at 42. I suspect you have them losing both Brooklyn games (I have them winning both) and also losing at either Chicago or NY.