Minnesota Timberwolves: Choose Your Own Path

[Monster]

The Paul Millsap interest appears to be heating up a bit, but not in favor of Minnesota, as expected. Golden State, Brooklyn, Los Angeles (Lakers), Boston, and Atlanta have all expressed varying levels of interest as of yesterday. There could be more teams to add to that list that we're unaware of.

Assuming Leandro Bolmaro is signed in the near future, and the Patrick Beverley trade is made official without any surprises, the Wolves will have $6,873,537 below the luxury tax threshold.

The Wolves could give the veteran minimum of $1,669,178 to Jordan McLaughlin and have $5,204,359 remaining to bolster the rest of the rotation, but I think they'd be better off allocating the $6,873,537 on both Jarred Vanderbilt and Isaiah Hartenstein -- two names we've obviously discussed a bit on this board.

Here's the thing with Hartenstein. He declined his $1.76-million player option for the 2021-2022 season, which shows you his camp believes he can get more than that, and Cleveland opted not to offer him the $2,025,705 qualifying offer, which made him an unrestricted free agent. Could Hartenstein be had on a two-year, $6,000,000 deal? That's a decent raise in pay for a guy that's only played 69 games the last two seasons. It would also allow him to retest the market at 25-years old.

I think think a three-year, $12,300,000 deal is appropriate for Vanderbilt for all the many reasons we've discussed. Minnesota would structure the deal so that they pay $3,800,000 in the first year.

The Wolves would be able to squeeze those two bigs under the luxury tax threshold and retain an extra roster spot should they need minor flexibility later in any trades. The Wolves would operate without a true third point guard on the roster, but two-way player McKinley Wright would be able to play in 50 of the 82 games should they need him at some point to fill in, similar to how McLaughlin has in years past.

PG: D'Angelo Russell / Patrick Beverley / McKinley Wright
SG: Anthony Edwards / Malik Beasley / Jaylen Nowell
SF: Jaden McDaniels / Taurean Prince / Josh Okogie
PF: Jarred Vanderbilt / Naz Reid / Nathan Knight
C: Karl-Anthony Towns / Isaiah Hartenstein

Cam I'd like to hear more of your reasoning on this as I know you have one of the strongest supporters of McLaughlin on this board.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Cam I'd like to hear more of your reasoning on this as I know you have one of the strongest supporters of McLaughlin on this board.

Yeah, absolutely. I still think highly of Jordan McLaughlin and he would fill a need on this team as a third point guard, and more importantly as the second-best floor general. Minnesota doesn't have an abundance of facilitators on the roster and that's certainly something he could provide.

However, I think point guard is one of the deepest positions in basketball. I tend to believe teams can churn out backup point guards like NFL teams do running backs. It seems like there's always a handful of point guards that come out of every draft class that stick with a team and become serviceable players. Or there's a veteran on the free agent or trade market that can be had for next to nothing. Additionally, more and more sets are being run by other positions. For example, Minnesota will have a number of possessions initiated by Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, Malik Beasley, and perhaps even Jaden McDaniels or Leandro Bolmaro. McLaughlin would be a nice-to-have addition, but not necessarily a must-have.

I don't think that's the case with bigs anymore. The league is so advanced that just being a big and/or athletic body won't cut it. Skilled bigs that can provide productive minutes are getting more and more difficult to come by. I think that's a result of the space-and-pace era forcing teams to focus on skill more than measurables. All five positions have to be able to shoot, pass, defend, and rebound more than what was required in the past -- when the league was slower and less skilled. That goes double for bigs so the more you have the better off you'll be, in my opinion.

I also think as we've mentioned before that this Wolves roster could use some legitimate size. Hartenstein would be the biggest guy on the team as soon as he put pen to paper. I'm not blown away by him, but what he showed in Cleveland was enough to intrigue me. There's some untapped production there.

[Lipoli390]

Cam - i agree with your analysis. Like you, I'm have a pretty high opinion of J-Mac. But if given a choice between signing Vando and J-Mac or Vando and Hartenstein, I'd also choose Hartenstein for the reasons you gave. Having said that, I noticed that you didn't include Layman in your depth chart. I'm sure that was an oversight. But it reminded me that he's expendable and I think we could trade him along with one of our three 2022 2nd-round picks to get much if not all of his $3.9M of his salary off the books. That would give us a realistic opportunity to sign Vando, Hartenstein and J-Mac.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Cam - I agree with your analysis. Like you, I'm have a pretty high opinion of J-Mac. But if given a choice between signing Vando and J-Mac or Vando and Hartenstein, I'd also choose Hartenstein for the reasons you gave. Having said that, I noticed that you didn't include Layman in your depth chart. I'm sure that was an oversight. But it reminded me that he's expendable and I think we could trade him along with one of our three 2022 2nd-round picks to get much if not all of his $3.9M of his salary off the books. That would give us a realistic opportunity to sign Vando, Hartenstein and J-Mac.

It was oversight on my part not to include Jake Layman or Leandro Bolmaro on the depth chart. That would take us back to Option B, though, which I'm vehemently in favor of. In a perfect world, or rather one where I'm able to make decisions for the Wolves front office, that would be my preferred route, assuming Paul Millsap is closing in on a deal with an established contender.

Like you, I do value Jordan McLaughlin. And also like you, I would rather bolster the forward and center positions. Being able to add all three players would make for a winning off-season.

[Monster]

Cam I'd like to hear more of your reasoning on this as I know you have one of the strongest supporters of McLaughlin on this board.

Yeah, absolutely. I still think highly of Jordan McLaughlin and he would fill a need on this team as a third point guard, and more importantly as the second-best floor general. Minnesota doesn't have an abundance of facilitators on the roster and that's certainly something he could provide.

However, I think point guard is one of the deepest positions in basketball. I tend to believe teams can churn out backup point guards like NFL teams do running backs. It seems like there's always a handful of point guards that come out of every draft class that stick with a team and become serviceable players. Or there's a veteran on the free agent or trade market that can be had for next to nothing. Additionally, more and more sets are being run by other positions. For example, Minnesota will have a number of possessions initiated by Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, Malik Beasley, and perhaps even Jaden McDaniels or Leandro Bolmaro. McLaughlin would be a nice-to-have addition, but not necessarily a must-have.

I don't think that's the case with bigs anymore. The league is so advanced that just being a big and/or athletic body won't cut it. Skilled bigs that can provide productive minutes are getting more and more difficult to come by. I think that's a result of the space-and-pace era forcing teams to focus on skill more than measurables. All five positions have to be able to shoot, pass, defend, and rebound more than what was required in the past -- when the league was slower and less skilled. That goes double for bigs so the more you have the better off you'll be, in my opinion.

I also think as we've mentioned before that this Wolves roster could use some legitimate size. Hartenstein would be the biggest guy on the team as soon as he put pen to paper. I'm not blown away by him, but what he showed in Cleveland was enough to intrigue me. There's some untapped production there.

Thanks for the reply and your line of thinking. It's interesting to hear your thoughts on the big man situation around the league. I think it's well thought out and I don't disagree with it. I'm curious to hear more thoughts if you are willing.

What do you see in Hartenstein that set him apart from another player?

How strongly do you believe in McLaughlin compared to Wright? Is a PG like McLaughlin with ability to do a little bit of everything in a sea of guards with various flaws (Wright shooting and maybe as a playmaker) worth letting go for a guy like Hartenstein that's moderately interesting? The Wolves need more size but let's be real too Russell and Beverly aren't iron men and so it's likely a 3rd PG will be needed.

What's the difference in possible impact between Nathan Knight and Hartenstein? Hartenstein has played less than 300 more minutes than Knight at the NBA level so it's not like he is some proven commodity and I'm saying that as the driver of the Hartenstein strain on this board.

Ultimately I wish the Wolves had just a little more flexibility to sign another vet min guy whether a more veteran dude or another young player like Hartenstein or Giles etc. right now I would stick with McLaughlin because I think I feel somewhat confident he can contribute if needed. If he continues to play well when given an opportunity I think that could be a potential feather in the cap of the wolves and help a little bit to attract more guys to get a shot here in the same way Naz and McLaughlin and to some extent even Kelan Martin did getting an NBA deal elsewhere. It could be another sign of the Wolves developing their own pipeline of talent/useful players. If I'm addition one of the Knight/Wright combo works out we are really starting to have something.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Thanks for the reply and your line of thinking. It's interesting to hear your thoughts on the big man situation around the league. I think it's well thought out and I don't disagree with it. I'm curious to hear more thoughts if you are willing.

What do you see in Hartenstein that set him apart from another player?

A: It's not that I think Isaiah Hartenstein is a special talent or even capable of starting on a .500 team. But he is one of the two or three best bigs available with an interesting history of production. He obliterated the G-League in 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 seasons -- 40 games total averaging over 30 minutes per game -- showcasing an ability to score and rebound at a high level, but also make 16-footers and defend the rim a bit. I also see a massive body with good mobility. He's listed at 7'0, 250-pounds and moves with good fluidity on both ends. Not to mention, he sets good screens, rim runs, and stays in his lane. Granted, he didn't play many NBA minutes his first couple of seasons, but over the course of his career Hartenstein has averaged 13.8 points, 11.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 2.2 blocks per 75 possessions. There's a productive big here that hasn't latched on to a team for whatever reason.

How strongly do you believe in McLaughlin compared to Wright? Is a PG like McLaughlin with ability to do a little bit of everything in a sea of guards with various flaws (Wright shooting and maybe as a playmaker) worth letting go for a guy like Hartenstein that's moderately interesting?

A: I think that Jordan McLaughlin and McKinley Wright have similar aspects of their game -- utilizing their quickness and basketball intelligence to make the correct play over the flashy play. What McLaughlin was able to do two years ago was show a savvy level of facilitating for a young guard and some shot-making. I'm not ready to assume the same from Wright this early. To his credit, Wright is the much better defender right now, but how much does a backup point guard's defense truly matter unless he's elite? That's difficult to quantify. In summary, McLaughlin is a much better backup point guard right now, but there's a number of available point guards should the position become an emergency.

What's the difference in possible impact between Nathan Knight and Hartenstein?

A: The difference for the 2021-2022 season is massive. Hartenstein is more seasoned, more proven, and probably more skilled right now. Over the course of his career, Hartenstein's teams are plus-3.8 points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor and plus-0.5 when he's off. When you take those numbers into account with everything else it shows that he's a decent player when given minutes.

[60WinTim]

I wonder what John Henson is up to? Hopefully not 250+...

[Monster]

Thanks for the reply and your line of thinking. It's interesting to hear your thoughts on the big man situation around the league. I think it's well thought out and I don't disagree with it. I'm curious to hear more thoughts if you are willing.

What do you see in Hartenstein that set him apart from another player?

A: It's not that I think Isaiah Hartenstein is a special talent or even capable of starting on a .500 team. But he is one of the two or three best bigs available with an interesting history of production. He obliterated the G-League in 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 seasons -- 40 games total averaging over 30 minutes per game -- showcasing an ability to score and rebound at a high level, but also make 16-footers and defend the rim a bit. I also see a massive body with good mobility. He's listed at 7'0, 250-pounds and moves with good fluidity on both ends. Not to mention, he sets good screens, rim runs, and stays in his lane. Granted, he didn't play many NBA minutes his first couple of seasons, but over the course of his career Hartenstein has averaged 13.8 points, 11.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 2.2 blocks per 75 possessions. There's a productive big here that hasn't latched on to a team for whatever reason.

How strongly do you believe in McLaughlin compared to Wright? Is a PG like McLaughlin with ability to do a little bit of everything in a sea of guards with various flaws (Wright shooting and maybe as a playmaker) worth letting go for a guy like Hartenstein that's moderately interesting?

A: I think that Jordan McLaughlin and McKinley Wright have similar aspects of their game -- utilizing their quickness and basketball intelligence to make the correct play over the flashy play. What McLaughlin was able to do two years ago was show a savvy level of facilitating for a young guard and some shot-making. I'm not ready to assume the same from Wright this early. To his credit, Wright is the much better defender right now, but how much does a backup point guard's defense truly matter unless he's elite? That's difficult to quantify. In summary, McLaughlin is a much better backup point guard right now, but there's a number of available point guards should the position become an emergency.

What's the difference in possible impact between Nathan Knight and Hartenstein?

A: The difference for the 2021-2022 season is massive. Hartenstein is more seasoned, more proven, and probably more skilled right now. Over the course of his career, Hartenstein's teams are plus-3.8 points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor and plus-0.5 when he's off. When you take those numbers into account with everything else it shows that he's a decent player when given minutes.

Thanks for the response. What took you so long to get on the Hartenstein train? :) I had forgotten about his D-League numbers.

The problem with getting a PG in case of emergency (or another position if we did sing McLaughlin)...the Wolves may not have much financial flexibility to sign anyone if they sign Vanderbilt and Hartenstein espcially if it takes more than the vet min for Hartenstein. In that scenario they might just have enough left for a 10-day contract type to stay under the Lux tax. That's not a terrible spot to be or particularly unique either as other teams will probably be in a similar spot but it's worth noting.

At this point I'm just waiting for the Wolves to sign McLaughlin (seems what they want to do) and Vanderbilt and then wonder if Rosas can do some sort of trade with Layman in a 2 for 1 type deal to save a team money etc and add another big. If not that's ok too. Layman is one injury away from playing some rotation minutes at SF which I think he is capable of providing adequate play so he isn't useless. I would rather add another big instead of having Layman but I also don't want to just add someone in a trade just to add someone. I'm still shocked at Rosas being able to pull off that Juancho Culver for Beverly deal so that gives me some more hope that Rosas can pull something else off even if it's a pretty minor move.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Good stuff, monster. And I just move from the best available to the next best, in my opinion. Lauri Markkanen made a lot of sense to me early on, but like I've said in other threads that avenue was blocked after the Patrick Beverley trade -- and I'm not in any way upset about it. Then Paul Millsap made a lot of sense for all the reasons why championship contenders are chasing him. Both of those guys are looking very unlikely even though they were probably tough gets to begin with. Now I see Jarred Vanderbilt and Isaiah Hartenstein as the two next best bigs on the market with Harry Giles on deck -- albeit on a tier below the other two names.

[Monster]

Good stuff, monster. And I just move from the best available to the next best, in my opinion. Lauri Markkanen made a lot of sense to me early on, but like I've said in other threads that avenue was blocked after the Patrick Beverley trade -- and I'm not in any way upset about it. Then Paul Millsap made a lot of sense for all the reasons why championship contenders are chasing him. Both of those guys are looking very unlikely even though they were probably tough gets to begin with. Now I see Jarred Vanderbilt and Isaiah Hartenstein as the two next best bigs on the market with Harry Giles on deck -- albeit on a tier below the other two names.

Is there anyone else either available as a FA or maybe on the fringes of another team that intrigues you at all to take a flyer on? Maybe even not for this roster but another team?