Minnesota Sports Forum

Q12543 wrote:

AbeVigodaLive wrote:

Camden wrote:

khans2k5 wrote:Jimmy Butler didn't start out the player he is today. Thibs helped him become that player and I'm fine with him trying to do it with Wiggins. It took Butler until his 4th season under Thibs to hit that 20 PPG/3 APG mark. I don't expect Wiggins to be that guy in year 1 under Thibs when it took Butler 4. I'm fine with the development route. We have to break bad habits and get them playing the right way and they are starting to show signs of it against some good teams of late. Winning isn't the most important thing right now because nobody important is in a contract year. Learning to play the right way is more important than a few extra wins for the long haul and I think we are already starting to see some dividends to that approach in the last few games defensively. I think we are going to be poised for a big run down the stretch and even if we come up short of the playoffs we will be better off moving forward having done things the right way rather than sacrifice for a couple extra wins.

Co-signed.

The one caveat is that (right or wrong) expectations come with being the #1 pick vs. a guy like Butler picked at #30. Even in Year 3 or 4.

The other caveat is that Butler is an exception. Just because he became the player he did doesn't mean Wiggins will. DeRozan is another "hey, that could be Wiggins someday" guy that flat-lined for a few years and then suddenly something clicked last year - his 6th! - and he became something more than an inefficient volume scorer.

Then you have guys like Rudy Gay, Monta Ellis, Antawn Jamison, etc.....guys that never quite broke out into real impact players.

We don't know which side of this coin Wiggins ends up on. But no one can say he hasn't been given every opportunity to learn, grow, and develop. Since his rookie year, he's been pretty much THE featured guy in our offense. Yet the progress is painfully slow.....on both sides of the ball.

Steph Curry, Derozan, Butler, Lowry, Conley. All guys who didn't become all-star caliber players until their second contracts. Butler isn't the one exception.

Q12543 wrote:Yeah, that last play before OT was a curious one by Thibs. Why the hell was Dunn in for Bjelica. That made absolutely no sense whatsoever. And if there is one guy on the team absolutely made for taking the ball full court with limited time to create a shot, it's Zach LaVine. Inexplicable decision making by Thibs.

(again, "it takes a village" applies to our meltdowns, which seemingly everyone on the team likes to get in on, including the coach!).

Q if I remember correctly Dunn was in defensively before and Thibs wanted to sub Dunn but they couldn't because there was no actual stoppage (it was a review) where they could make a substitution so they sent him back in.

Someone mentioned that Thibs' contract and dual role give him a long leash. That may be true. But that's not the issue for me. The issue is that we have young core players who are coming up for contract extensions and if they don't like the situation here they'll be less likely to extend at all much less for less than a max deal. Thibs came here to coach what he described as the best young roster in the NBA. We over the course of last season and most national analysts though we'd be competing for a playoff spot at least. Backsliding so severely as we are this season is not in the best long term interest of this franchise. We've passed that point.

As for Wiggins, he's played mucho minutes for over 2.25 seasons now. He may not be a finished product, but we should have a pretty good sense of who he is. Having him post up, cutting to the basket and receiving the ball are good uses of his abilities. But this team needs to win and having him run the offense as the main ball-handler at the beginning of possessions clearly fails to give the team the optimal chance to win. Thibs may have a long leash, but the least is not nearly as long to show progress enough to motivate our current young talent to stay and perhaps attract quality free agents. Not to mention maintain fan interest and garner sponsorships to pay the kind of money we'll have to pay for a championship contender.

Butler is probably not the model for Wiggins. Wiggins came here as the #1 pick in the draft and became rookie of the year. He's played huge minutes his first two seasons with lots of action. And his personality is very different from Butler's.

AbeVigodaLive wrote:As young as the Wolves are, they do have some decisions to make eventually.

For example, is Wiggins good enough to be a #1a type of player? Or, is he destined to be a Glen Robinson type for his career? Throwing him to the Wolves like he is now could be part of the "long game" as noted. (1) To help him realize he has those chops. (2) To help the team realize he doesn't and consider finding a haul for him from another team who thinks he does.

In any event, it's not helping with Wins/Losses. But one thing I think most of us overlooked with Thibodeau is that he has arguably one of the longest leashes in the NBA right now. And he's one of the most powerful. The Wolves could go 18 - 64 and he's still running the show next season.

Oh, I think there's no doubt about that...as long as he stays on Glen's good side. But I think Thibs may be underestimating the hunger of this fan base for "playoffs now"...our tolerance for "the long view" is small, especially after the strong finish to last season. If we go 18-64 (and we very well might) there will be another repercussion...less than 6000 people in the stands, and I won't be one of them.

Another good report Lip and I agree on most points.

We lost that game for many reasons and you can point the finger at Thibs, Wiggins, LaVine and even the officials for missing the foul on wiggins on the putback and Rubio getting hacked by Beverley on his drive to the basket. But it shouldn't have comedown to that so I'll let the officials away on this one.

Houston ran a small ball / 3pt lineup down the stretch and in OT of Harden, Beverley, Gordon, Ariza, Anderson. What perplexed me is why Thib didn't draw up plays for KAT in the low post where he had dominated Anderson all night. Instead he went ISO ball with Wiggins at the top of the key, completely nullifying our size advantage down low and stagnating our offence. What this also showed was our inability to guard the 3pt shot and our woeful perimeter defence. We could really use a Luol Deng type player who can play the small ball 4 and give Wiggins some respite from guarding opposition wings.

It appears Thibs is trying to mold Wiggins into the 'go to' guy on this team. I believe he can develop into this role, but to do it you have to play to his strengths. Giving him the ball at the the top of the perimeter in an ISO situation is not playing to his strength with his lack of playmaking, ball handling and passing abilities. You need him to get into position playing off then ball and getting it too him in the right spots. There is also no reason why final plays shouldn't be drawn up to involve KAT and LaVine who in my opinion are better options taking the last shot. Or even Rubio as he is often wide open, and has a knack for hitting a big shot now and then. At least it would be a good look instead of watching Wiggins play hero ball.

Anyways the last two minutes of the 4th quarter and OT last night pretty much summed up the season. But to end on a positive note it is easy to forget our big three are only 21 years old and are at least five years away from hitting their prime.

longstrangetrip wrote:

AbeVigodaLive wrote:As young as the Wolves are, they do have some decisions to make eventually.

For example, is Wiggins good enough to be a #1a type of player? Or, is he destined to be a Glen Robinson type for his career? Throwing him to the Wolves like he is now could be part of the "long game" as noted. (1) To help him realize he has those chops. (2) To help the team realize he doesn't and consider finding a haul for him from another team who thinks he does.

In any event, it's not helping with Wins/Losses. But one thing I think most of us overlooked with Thibodeau is that he has arguably one of the longest leashes in the NBA right now. And he's one of the most powerful. The Wolves could go 18 - 64 and he's still running the show next season.

Oh, I think there's no doubt about that...as long as he stays on Glen's good side. But I think Thibs may be underestimating the hunger of this fan base for "playoffs now"...our tolerance for "the long view" is small, especially after the strong finish to last season. If we go 18-64 (and we very well might) there will be another repercussion...less than 6000 people in the stands, and I won't be one of them.

If I were to bet, I'd join Abe in bettting that Thibs will be here next season. But as LST suggested, Thibs will ultimately be here only as long as he's on Glen's good side. As we've seen, you're only on his good side as long as you're on his good side. :). Just ask Flip Saunders, Kevin McHale, David Kahn and Sam Mitchell. And in case you haven't noticed, Glen's fuse seems to be growing shorter and shorter since the time he kept Kevin Mac on a very lengthy leash. But of course, it's worth noting that McHale lifted this franchise out of the toilet in 1995 and that he presided over nearly 10 straight years of playoff basketball culminating in a trip to the Western Conference Finals. That 10 year run certainly accounts for a big part of McHale's longevity. In any event, Sam's quick dismissal after last season in spite of the strong finish tells us how impatient Glen has grown since the early days.

Again, I'm not debating how long Thibs will be here. I'm just concerned that he doesn't have time to experiment and start from ground zero given the status of the young talent that attracted him to this job in the first place. He doesn't seem like the kind of guy yo play for because you like the atmosphere he creates. Last night, for example, he was constantly yelling at players, especially LaVine and KAT. Warranted or not, that will wear on any player who has options to go elsewhere. In other words, other than the 5-year deal the Wolves can offer two of their three young core, winning is the key to keeping these guys here rather than letting them walk or getting screwed in a one-sided trade when the rest of the League knows they want out. Next Fall is coming right up and either Zach or Wiggins will be likely be forced to accept a 4-year rather than 5-year extension. That situation would be far more manageable if we we still on the upward trajectory we were on the last two seasons rather than backsliding as we are now.

This is the reality we face, which is why I find it hard to believe that Thibs is risking losses to test his theories. I have to believe he's smart enough to know the situation and realize that he needs to do everything he can to win every game in the face of an impatient fan base, impatient owner and contract situations that don't have a long-term trajectory.

KiwiMatt wrote:Another good report Lip and I agree on most points.

We lost that game for many reasons and you can point the finger at Thibs, Wiggins, LaVine and even the officials for missing the foul on wiggins on the putback and Rubio getting hacked by Beverley on his drive to the basket. But it shouldn't have comedown to that so I'll let the officials away on this one.

Houston ran a small ball / 3pt lineup down the stretch and in OT of Harden, Beverley, Gordon, Ariza, Anderson. What perplexed me is why Thib didn't draw up plays for KAT in the low post where he had dominated Anderson all night. Instead he went ISO ball with Wiggins at the top of the key, completely nullifying our size advantage down low and stagnating our offence. What this also showed was our inability to guard the 3pt shot and our woeful perimeter defence. We could really use a Luol Deng type player who can play the small ball 4 and give Wiggins some respite from guarding opposition wings.

It appears Thibs is trying to mold Wiggins into the 'go to' guy on this team. I believe he can develop into this role, but to do it you have to play to his strengths. Giving him the ball at the the top of the perimeter in an ISO situation is not playing to his strength with his lack of playmaking, ball handling and passing abilities. You need him to get into position playing off then ball and getting it too him in the right spots. There is also no reason why final plays shouldn't be drawn up to involve KAT and LaVine who in my opinion are better options taking the last shot. Or even Rubio as he is often wide open, and has a knack for hitting a big shot now and then. At least it would be a good look instead of watching Wiggins play hero ball.

Anyways the last two minutes of the 4th quarter and OT last night pretty much summed up the season. But to end on a positive note it is easy to forget our big three are only 21 years old and are at least five years away from hitting their prime.

Matt -- You are spot on in all your takes on last night's game. And I agree that there is good news in the fact that our big three are only 21 years old. But as I've expressed in my posts above, although the players are five years away from hitting their prime, I fear one or two of them will spend most of those next 5 years developing and achieving elsewhere while we end up with nothing or relatively little in return.

khans2k5 wrote:

Q12543 wrote:

AbeVigodaLive wrote:

Camden wrote:

khans2k5 wrote:Jimmy Butler didn't start out the player he is today. Thibs helped him become that player and I'm fine with him trying to do it with Wiggins. It took Butler until his 4th season under Thibs to hit that 20 PPG/3 APG mark. I don't expect Wiggins to be that guy in year 1 under Thibs when it took Butler 4. I'm fine with the development route. We have to break bad habits and get them playing the right way and they are starting to show signs of it against some good teams of late. Winning isn't the most important thing right now because nobody important is in a contract year. Learning to play the right way is more important than a few extra wins for the long haul and I think we are already starting to see some dividends to that approach in the last few games defensively. I think we are going to be poised for a big run down the stretch and even if we come up short of the playoffs we will be better off moving forward having done things the right way rather than sacrifice for a couple extra wins.

Co-signed.

The one caveat is that (right or wrong) expectations come with being the #1 pick vs. a guy like Butler picked at #30. Even in Year 3 or 4.

The other caveat is that Butler is an exception. Just because he became the player he did doesn't mean Wiggins will. DeRozan is another "hey, that could be Wiggins someday" guy that flat-lined for a few years and then suddenly something clicked last year - his 6th! - and he became something more than an inefficient volume scorer.

Then you have guys like Rudy Gay, Monta Ellis, Antawn Jamison, etc.....guys that never quite broke out into real impact players.

We don't know which side of this coin Wiggins ends up on. But no one can say he hasn't been given every opportunity to learn, grow, and develop. Since his rookie year, he's been pretty much THE featured guy in our offense. Yet the progress is painfully slow.....on both sides of the ball.

Steph Curry, Derozan, Butler, Lowry, Conley. All guys who didn't become all-star caliber players until their second contracts. Butler isn't the one exception.

An all star type is one way to measure it. But it can be noisy. That's why I simply look for things like steady improvement.

IF the season ended today... I'd be disappointed in Wiggins development between years 2 and 3, although the three point shooting jump is nice.

Do you guys realize how far ahead of yourselves you are getting? "If we don't win this year Wiggins and Zach will want out and then Towns will want out and we'll have to trade them to meet their wants". We have control over them. They can either get paid for five years and be here or 4 years when we match their offer sheet and then we don't even need to have the conversation of trading them for 3 years after that minimum. That's 4 years from now minimum. Even Love couldn't get out until after year 2 of his second deal and that's because he had an opt out after 3 no other team is going to give these guys. These guys just don't control where they play. They aren't going to stare 100+ million in the face and say I want to risk it all on 1 season just so I can get out of MN and they have zero leverage the second they sign any deal. Just look at Demarcus in Sacramento. Do you think he still wants to be there? He has no leverage to force a trade and he can't get out until his contract is up and that's what will happen with our guys. If we still aren't winning 4 years from now then these guys aren't worth keeping anyway. I just don't get where this mentality comes from that rookies control their destiny like veterans. They don't. Just ask Demarcus and Eric Gordon and Anthony Davis and John Wall. All stuck with zero leverage until their second contracts are up. Enough with the "if we don't win now they'll force their way out". It's not gonna happen. Love got out about as quick as you can when you are a really good player and he was still here for 6 years. That's 3 years from now for Wiggins and Zach and 4 for Towns and Love got an unbelievably player friendly deal from a terrible GM I doubt any of our guys will get from Thibs.

khans2k5 wrote:
Steph Curry, Derozan, Butler, Lowry, Conley. All guys who didn't become all-star caliber players until their second contracts. Butler isn't the one exception.

I think that problem is not the Wiggins current level of play but more the fact that he has shown very little improvement over 180 games that he has played in NBA and most of his improvement came already during his first season when he scored 20 points per game post all star break. After that only improvement that we have seen has been his three point shooting.

Wiggins 2014-15 post all star break per 36 minutes stats:
18.4 pts, 4.5 rbs, 2.1 ast, 0.9 stl, 0.6 blk 2.3 TOs 44.6 FG% 78.3 FT% 53.3 TS% 15.9 PER
2015-16:
21.2 pts, 3.7 rbs, 2.1 ast, 1.0 stl, 0.6 blk 2.3 TOs 45.9 FG% 76.1 FT% 54.3 TS% 16.5 PER
2016-:
21.5 pts, 4.2 rbs, 2.3 ast, 0.6 stl, 0.4 blk 2.5 TOs 43.4 FG% 76.1 FT% 53.1 TS% 15.4 PER

So outside of improvement in his three point shooting, it is very difficult to find anything that he would do clearly better now than in second half of his rookie season. It even seems that his efficiency near rim has dropped from 66.5% (rookie season) to 60.4 (current season) that explains why improvement in three point shooting is not visible in TS%. (it doesn't even compensate his inefficiency elsewhere)

From Khan's list of players, only DeRozan and Lowry have had as long period of games in their early career without much statistical improvement, so it appears to be pretty damn rare that players that have not shown much improvement over their first 180 games, will suddenly start improving later.