Point Guard Rankings for 2022-23

[Coolbreeze44]

After the Gobert deal was consummated, DLO's situation changed pretty dramatically. His salary slot turned into nothing because of Rudy's impact on our cap. All of a sudden, he became a gamble no matter what you do with him. You can wait and see how he does this year, but if he has a really good start his value might increase to the point where he wants to test the open market next offseason. If you decide to extend him now at say $30 million for 4 years, you run the risk of him not improving and even regressing. Then he becomes completely unmovable and you're stuck with him for the 4 years. If he plays decent but nothing better than we've seen, at the end of the year you have to decide whether to let him walk or try to fit him inside the luxury tax. I don't think any of these options are good for the Wolves. The best we can hope is he somehow improves dramatically this year and makes himself a valuable commodity. But I think that happening is pretty remote. If I was in charge, I'd take a chance and see what happens this season. I'm betting he will be underwhelming, and letting him walk will be the best (not perfect) choice. However, I could easily see the team trying to extend him for 2-3 years at $30. Not sure if DLO would take it, and it illustrates why I think there is no great way to proceed here. The Gobert deal was a game changer for DLO.

[D-Mac [enjin:19736340]]

I speculated before the offseason that he would be tough to move due to his low value around the league. Gotta be fair Cam. I went so far as to say Rosas would continue to be the head idiot until someone gave up something of real value for Russell. Well, we're still waiting for that and I'm not holding my breath.

Ahh, right. The "head idiot" nonsense. Rather than simply accept that the Timberwolves actually valued D'Angelo Russell for what he contributed last season -- and what they believe he'll produce moving forward with a roster that better suits him -- we're instead choosing to speculate that it was a "high priority" to move him and that his value was so low that Minnesota was unable to do so. Good call.

And if Tim Connelly extends or re-signs Russell, then what? What will the spin be?

If Tc extends him for 20/year or higher then he is the new idiot. He already made the gobert trade so he may be well on his way :)

Every single player on that list lip posted who isn't on a rookie deal is making more than 20 million a year. I will be shocked if he doesn't get at least 20 million a year and I'm expecting more. It's what the market is at the moment for a starting NBA PG

If everyone else jumps off a bridge, should we too? :) How many of those other guys are on teams paying two guys what we're paying our two centers (with another definite max on the horizon)? Yeah, I agree that there will probably be a few teams willing to give him 20 next offseason. I just feel like we would have seen him traded this off-season if his value around the league was any higher than that though. I also think that if the wolves were gonna give him anything more (say 4/100), it would have happened by now. Dlo has been outspoken about his desire to return. If 4/100 were on the table, I think he would have taken it by now. My guess is the two sides are very far apart which reflects well on TC if true.

[FNG]

In the 2020-2021, Dlo was ranked 24th among point guards in real plus minus. His offensive rating was about the same as last year, but his defensive rating was much, much better last season, leading to the jump from 24th to 7th.

Sundog, thanks for posting the PG box plus/minus stats for last year providing another perspective on DLo's value last year. I am one of the strongest proponents of on/off stats on this board, mainly because my extensive research tells me you still win basketball games by scoring more points than the other team ;) . When I played HS and D-3 basketball, it was important to me that the score improved during my stints on the court. I understood that my play at both ends of the court wasn't the only factor in how my team was doing, but over time it was meaningful to me.

What you post above matches the way most of us evaluate DLo...both last year and prior to last year. He has been a poor performer in various on/off measures (and frankly most advanced measures) most of his career, but showed great improvement on the defensive side of the ball last season. He remained an inefficient player on offense last season, but many of us commented on the improvement we noted on defense. and the stats backed it up. I don't know if you were a regular reader of posts here during the season, but I posted several times how well Russell was finally doing in his on/off measure.

My concern is whether he can duplicate his defensive success this season. I still thought DLo's on-ball defense was substandard last season, and that he thrived because he was able to play free safety while PatBev or Ant handled the tougher one-on-one assignment. Whether DLo can be an average defender with PatBev now gone will be a key to how far this talented roster can go this season...and perhaps to how Finchie allocates PG minutes. If DLo's defensive metrics match last season (and he plays within himself on offense), this team can be truly special.

Earlier in this thread you posted that some here don't think DLo's performance matches his contract, and that is the heart of the dissatisfaction some of us have with him. His max salary absorbed almost 25% of the team's salary cap last year. If TC is as savvy as I think he is, I suspect one of his biggest issues when he took this job was this: can a team be successful paying $30 million to a PG who ranks 23rd in the league? I would have said no a month ago, but the Gobert deal is making me much more optimistic. But it's critical that Russell steps up.

[60WinTim]

Well, we have Jaylen Nowell is expanding his PG skills:

https://twitter.com/TownsUprising/status/1552485949405138944

[Q-is-here]

Well, we have Jaylen Nowell is expanding his PG skills:

https://twitter.com/TownsUprising/status/1552485949405138944

Nice! Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Nowell playing some PG this year. Remember that he's coming off the bench along with Kyle Anderson. I mean, do we really need a "pure" PG in that scenario? I love Lil' Mac, but he may not always be the best option.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

A stat I found doin this episode: DLo is one of 17 players to be a 90th percentile offensive player in each of the past four seasons, using Offensive Estimated Plus-Minus

Jokic
Trae
Giannis
Embiid
Curry
LeBron
Kyrie
KAT
Luka
Booker
Harden
Dame
Butler
CP3
McCollum
Middleton
DLo

Link: https://twitter.com/danemoorenba/status/1552721535886049288?s=21&t=e-8U2EsemB04NXjGstCf0A

Ruh-roh. File this cherry-picked stat in the "D-Lo Doesn't Suck" folder along with the others. It turns out he's one of the better playmakers in the league. Who knew.

[thedoper]

A stat I found doin this episode: DLo is one of 17 players to be a 90th percentile offensive player in each of the past four seasons, using Offensive Estimated Plus-Minus

Jokic
Trae
Giannis
Embiid
Curry
LeBron
Kyrie
KAT
Luka
Booker
Harden
Dame
Butler
CP3
McCollum
Middleton
DLo

Link: https://twitter.com/danemoorenba/status/1552721535886049288?s=21&t=e-8U2EsemB04NXjGstCf0A

Ruh-roh. File this cherry-picked stat in the "D-Lo Doesn't Suck" folder along with the others. It turns out he's one of the better playmakers in the league. Who knew.

Yeah he went over this on his latest podcast, it was a good listen. He has seemed to be more in the trade DLo camp but in no way tries to paint a DLo sucks picture. He also covered why were now in a position were having a 4th 30mil slot as a tradeable asset is actually a good thing with the pending TV deal.

I dont know what a reasonable approach is with such a divisive player but it cant be that he "sucks". I think hes good but not great. Some may think hes ok which Im not going to quibble over. Anything else I dont really have time to bother.

[AbeVigodaLive]

"So the Timberwolves have about the 20th - 25th best PG in the league.
He's a decent enough player. And he doesn't currently kill the salary cap. Cool with me."

________________________

"The Timberwolves are going to offer an extension to one of the worst starting PGs in the league without much/any room for growth for him... AND give him $30M+ a season when he's no better than the team's 4th best player. Maybe. NO!!!"




Both things are true for me.

[thedoper]

"So the Timberwolves have about the 20th - 25th best PG in the league.
He's a decent enough player. And he doesn't currently kill the salary cap. Cool with me."

________________________

"The Timberwolves are going to offer an extension to one of the worst starting PGs in the league without much/any room for growth for him... AND give him $30M+ a season when he's no better than the team's 4th best player. Maybe. NO!!!"




Both things are true for me.

30 mil will be the going rate for an average pg in the new tv deal. Sounds insane but that is inflation.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

So the Timberwolves have about the 20th - 25th best PG in the league.

I can't wait to revisit these comments toward the end of the season. Those lists should look different.