Young Wolves Players About to Take Major Leap Forward

[thedoper]

Id take Wiggins back on this team as currently constructed. Hed be a big upgrade at the 3. The problem with Wiggins was always that he was a number 1 pick. 3rd or 4th banana was what he was. No shame in that at all. Good player at that spot, bad #1 option.

So what you are saying is that you would take him over McDaniels? I agree that if you remove things like age, potential, team fit and salary considerations, Wiggins is currently the better player. But who is the more valuable asset and who is a better fit given the other players on the team is a whole other question.

Its exactly why analysis of NBA players is so complicated and why the salary cap and cba has skewed how we analyze the game. Today Wiggins is a better player than Jaden, but as you pointed out 'value' has a variety of factors in todays game. At the time of Wiggins extension we felt forced to give him a max contract based on potential. He wasnt worth it but he was still a #1 pick with potential. If he was drafted in Jaden's spot hed probably be an overachiever on a great contract. The Suns just yoked themselves to an albatross of a contract in a similar position. They tried to assess Ayton on the market but found out that potential is a huge premium in the NBA. Wiggins has developed into a really nice complimentary player, credit to the Warriors for playing to his strengths, minimizing his deficiencies, for being willing to pay a max slot for a 4th wheel, and for having Steph and Draymond.

[Q-is-here]

Id take Wiggins back on this team as currently constructed. Hed be a big upgrade at the 3. The problem with Wiggins was always that he was a number 1 pick. 3rd or 4th banana was what he was. No shame in that at all. Good player at that spot, bad #1 option.

So what you are saying is that you would take him over McDaniels? I agree that if you remove things like age, potential, team fit and salary considerations, Wiggins is currently the better player. But who is the more valuable asset and who is a better fit given the other players on the team is a whole other question.

Its exactly why analysis of NBA players is so complicated and why the salary cap and cba has skewed how we analyze the game. Today Wiggins is a better player than Jaden, but as you pointed out 'value' has a variety of factors in todays game. At the time of Wiggins extension we felt forced to give him a max contract based on potential. He wasnt worth it but he was still a #1 pick with potential. If he was drafted in Jaden's spot hed probably be an overachiever on a great contract. The Suns just yoked themselves to an albatross of a contract in a similar position. They tried to assess Ayton on the market but found out that potential is a huge premium in the NBA. Wiggins has developed into a really nice complimentary player, credit to the Warriors for playing to his strengths, minimizing his deficiencies, for being willing to pay a max slot for a 4th wheel, and for having Steph and Draymond.

Agreed. But let's pretend that Jaden and Wiggins are on the same contract, but their existing age, potential, and production profiles are the same as real life. Would you still replace Jaden with Wiggins for the next 3-4 years?

[thedoper]

Id take Wiggins back on this team as currently constructed. Hed be a big upgrade at the 3. The problem with Wiggins was always that he was a number 1 pick. 3rd or 4th banana was what he was. No shame in that at all. Good player at that spot, bad #1 option.

So what you are saying is that you would take him over McDaniels? I agree that if you remove things like age, potential, team fit and salary considerations, Wiggins is currently the better player. But who is the more valuable asset and who is a better fit given the other players on the team is a whole other question.

Its exactly why analysis of NBA players is so complicated and why the salary cap and cba has skewed how we analyze the game. Today Wiggins is a better player than Jaden, but as you pointed out 'value' has a variety of factors in todays game. At the time of Wiggins extension we felt forced to give him a max contract based on potential. He wasnt worth it but he was still a #1 pick with potential. If he was drafted in Jaden's spot hed probably be an overachiever on a great contract. The Suns just yoked themselves to an albatross of a contract in a similar position. They tried to assess Ayton on the market but found out that potential is a huge premium in the NBA. Wiggins has developed into a really nice complimentary player, credit to the Warriors for playing to his strengths, minimizing his deficiencies, for being willing to pay a max slot for a 4th wheel, and for having Steph and Draymond.

Agreed. But let's pretend that Jaden and Wiggins are on the same contract, but their existing age, potential, and production profiles are the same as real life. Would you still replace Jaden with Wiggins for the next 3-4 years?

That is a great question. Right now I take Wiggins, both are intriguing with Gobert behind them though. Cool should answer this question. It may tear him apart.

[Q-is-here]

Id take Wiggins back on this team as currently constructed. Hed be a big upgrade at the 3. The problem with Wiggins was always that he was a number 1 pick. 3rd or 4th banana was what he was. No shame in that at all. Good player at that spot, bad #1 option.

So what you are saying is that you would take him over McDaniels? I agree that if you remove things like age, potential, team fit and salary considerations, Wiggins is currently the better player. But who is the more valuable asset and who is a better fit given the other players on the team is a whole other question.

Its exactly why analysis of NBA players is so complicated and why the salary cap and cba has skewed how we analyze the game. Today Wiggins is a better player than Jaden, but as you pointed out 'value' has a variety of factors in todays game. At the time of Wiggins extension we felt forced to give him a max contract based on potential. He wasnt worth it but he was still a #1 pick with potential. If he was drafted in Jaden's spot hed probably be an overachiever on a great contract. The Suns just yoked themselves to an albatross of a contract in a similar position. They tried to assess Ayton on the market but found out that potential is a huge premium in the NBA. Wiggins has developed into a really nice complimentary player, credit to the Warriors for playing to his strengths, minimizing his deficiencies, for being willing to pay a max slot for a 4th wheel, and for having Steph and Draymond.

Agreed. But let's pretend that Jaden and Wiggins are on the same contract, but their existing age, potential, and production profiles are the same as real life. Would you still replace Jaden with Wiggins for the next 3-4 years?

That is a great question. Right now I take Wiggins, both are intriguing with Gobert behind them though. Cool should answer this question. It may tear him apart.

Yeah, tough one for me. I am so intrigued at what Wiggins did in the playoffs versus the regular season. He almost doubled his rebounding rate in the playoffs and got a lot of easy buckets off putbacks. Remember how we used to complain at what a lackluster rebounder he was given his length and athleticism? Well, he suddenly decided he could be a factor on the glass during the playoffs. He was also locked in defensively. Otherwise he was sort of "meh" as a shooter and scorer (33% from 3, 54 TS%, 16 PPG). But the rebounding and defense was exactly what Golden State needed the most out of him and he did his part.

[Jester1534]

Id take Wiggins back on this team as currently constructed. Hed be a big upgrade at the 3. The problem with Wiggins was always that he was a number 1 pick. 3rd or 4th banana was what he was. No shame in that at all. Good player at that spot, bad #1 option.

So what you are saying is that you would take him over McDaniels? I agree that if you remove things like age, potential, team fit and salary considerations, Wiggins is currently the better player. But who is the more valuable asset and who is a better fit given the other players on the team is a whole other question.

Its exactly why analysis of NBA players is so complicated and why the salary cap and cba has skewed how we analyze the game. Today Wiggins is a better player than Jaden, but as you pointed out 'value' has a variety of factors in todays game. At the time of Wiggins extension we felt forced to give him a max contract based on potential. He wasnt worth it but he was still a #1 pick with potential. If he was drafted in Jaden's spot hed probably be an overachiever on a great contract. The Suns just yoked themselves to an albatross of a contract in a similar position. They tried to assess Ayton on the market but found out that potential is a huge premium in the NBA. Wiggins has developed into a really nice complimentary player, credit to the Warriors for playing to his strengths, minimizing his deficiencies, for being willing to pay a max slot for a 4th wheel, and for having Steph and Draymond.

Agreed. But let's pretend that Jaden and Wiggins are on the same contract, but their existing age, potential, and production profiles are the same as real life. Would you still replace Jaden with Wiggins for the next 3-4 years?

That is a great question. Right now I take Wiggins, both are intriguing with Gobert behind them though. Cool should answer this question. It may tear him apart.

Yeah, tough one for me. I am so intrigued at what Wiggins did in the playoffs versus the regular season. He almost doubled his rebounding rate in the playoffs and got a lot of easy buckets off putbacks. Remember how we used to complain at what a lackluster rebounder he was given his length and athleticism? Well, he suddenly decided he could be a factor on the glass during the playoffs. He was also locked in defensively. Otherwise he was sort of "meh" as a shooter and scorer (33% from 3, 54 TS%, 16 PPG). But the rebounding and defense was exactly what Golden State needed the most out of him and he did his part.

I think you answered your own Question Q. When Andrew puts his mind to it he's above average role player but the problem is he has to be the right fit and the right culture. That's why when people argue the Dlo trade I cant say I wouldn't have made the trade. Wiggins in GSW is the same player as he was here but the only difference is he's actually trying and giving a shit. Now the Media praises him for this but as a Wolves fan Wiggins can F off in my book.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

If Jaden McDaniels takes the next step in his development this season on the way to a longer Mikal Bridges, then I don't think there will be much of a question about who we'd rather have on this team between him and Andrew Wiggins. He just has to turn potential into production at this point.

However, I'm more confident in him now than I've ever been and it's largely because of how it appears he'll be used moving forward -- on the wing! He's an overwhelming mismatch at the three versus being undersized and movable at the four. Minnesota's roster as it's currently constructed means he'll be needed at the three more than ever, which should lead to better performances from McDaniels, in my opinion. If he can just makes those threes with consistency, then we're set.

Also, one thing I've never questioned with McDaniels was his effort because it shows up nightly. I couldn't say the same about Wiggins when he was in Minnesota. It was a nightly coin flip whether or not he would play with energy. That's enough in itself to force me to take McDaniels between the two.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

If Jaden McDaniels takes the next step in his development this season on the way to a longer Mikal Bridges, then I don't think there will be much of a question about who we'd rather have on this team between him and Andrew Wiggins. He just has to turn potential into production at this point.

However, I'm more confident in him now than I've ever been and it's largely because of how it appears he'll be used moving forward -- on the wing! He's an overwhelming mismatch at the three verus being undersized and movable at the four. Minnesota's roster as it's currently constructed means he'll be needed at the three more than ever, which should lead to better performances from McDaniels, in my opinion. If he can just makes those threes with consistency, then we're set.

Also, one thing I've never questioned with McDaniels was his effort because it shows up nightly. I couldn't say the same about Wiggins when he was in Minnesota. It was a nightly coin flip whether or not he would play with energy. That's enough in itself to force me to take McDaniels between the two.

I know you're not necessarily bringing up Bridges to compare them or saying that Jaden is or will be better than Bridges, but the Bridges comparison is interesting. I love Bridges. I think all championship-level teams could use a guy like that. Super-high level 3 and D guy. One quick note--I think Bridges actually has a longer wingspan than Jaden. Dude has freaky-long arms.

https://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/3147657/mikal-bridges

https://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/4431671/jaden-mcdaniels

I think Jaden could get there, but there are a couple things he needs to do.

First, I think he really needs to take a step forward as a 3 point shooter. He actually regressed a bit in that area last year. He has averaged about 34% over his first 2 years, which is pretty close to the shade under 35% or so Bridges shot in his first two years. So that's good. But Bridges progressed from his first to his second year, then made a huge jump to over 42% in his third year (although that did come down to about 37% last year). Jaden's outside shooting percentage dropped from his first to his second year, which is the wrong direction. Jaden's FT% improvement last year was a good sign, but I'm not sure I see him getting to be on the level of Bridges as an outside shooter. We'll see. I definitely hope so.

The other thing I think he needs to do is try to cut down those fouls so that he can stay on the floor for his defense. I think he's really up there as one of the better on-ball defenders in the league already. If you look at their stats, you notice Bridges has always picked up more steals than Jaden, and according to NBA.com's hustle stats, he got 2 deflections compared to Jaden's 1.6. But Jaden's just behind him in loose balls recovered at .7 to .8. And McDaniels is actually just ahead of Bridges in the number of 3 point shots he contests per game at 3 to 2.8 (interestingly, Gobert also contests 2.8 three pointers per game, which is a bit of a reminder that he can be a bit of a presence on the perimeter as well, when needed). But Jaden fouls more than 1 time per game more than Bridges despite playing nearly 10 fewer minutes than Bridges. That's a problem. And that's definitely one of the biggest differences between Jaden and Bridges at this point. That costs us points by putting the other team on the line, and also makes it harder to keep him on the floor more minutes, which we need to do for his defense.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/hustle/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=DEFLECTIONS&dir=1

Anyway, I hope Jaden makes a big step forward this coming year. His defense is very good. If he can improve his outside shooting and cut down on his fouls, I think the Bridges comparison is legit and I love Bridges.

[Q-is-here]

Bridges is a high bar for Jaden. He is probably one of the best pure 3&D wings in the league....and he can go make other shots as well. Go look at his 2 pt FG%. The guy can put the ball on the deck for a bounce or two and make a shot if he has to. And he rarely turns it over.

The good news is that Jaden came into the league younger and less tested, as Bridges went through the crucible of Villanova for three seasons where half court defense and offense is executed with methodical precision by Jay Wright.

[Lipoli390]

If Jaden McDaniels takes the next step in his development this season on the way to a longer Mikal Bridges, then I don't think there will be much of a question about who we'd rather have on this team between him and Andrew Wiggins. He just has to turn potential into production at this point.

However, I'm more confident in him now than I've ever been and it's largely because of how it appears he'll be used moving forward -- on the wing! He's an overwhelming mismatch at the three verus being undersized and movable at the four. Minnesota's roster as it's currently constructed means he'll be needed at the three more than ever, which should lead to better performances from McDaniels, in my opinion. If he can just makes those threes with consistency, then we're set.

Also, one thing I've never questioned with McDaniels fan was his effort because it shows up nightly. I couldn't say the same about Wiggins when he was in Minnesota. It was a nightly coin flip whether or not he would play with energy. That's enough in itself to force me to take McDaniels between the two.

I know you're not necessarily bringing up Bridges to compare them or saying that Jaden is or will be better than Bridges, but the Bridges comparison is interesting. I love Bridges. I think all championship-level teams could use a guy like that. Super-high level 3 and D guy. One quick note--I think Bridges actually has a longer wingspan than Jaden. Dude has freaky-long arms.

https://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/3147657/mikal-bridges

https://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/4431671/jaden-mcdaniels

I think Jaden could get there, but there are a couple things he needs to do.

First, I think he really needs to take a step forward as a 3 point shooter. He actually regressed a bit in that area last year. He has averaged about 34% over his first 2 years, which is pretty close to the shade under 35% or so Bridges shot in his first two years. So that's good. But Bridges progressed from his first to his second year, then made a huge jump to over 42% in his third year (although that did come down to about 37% last year). Jaden's outside shooting percentage dropped from his first to his second year, which is the wrong direction. Jaden's FT% improvement last year was a good sign, but I'm not sure I see him getting to be on the level of Bridges as an outside shooter. We'll see. I definitely hope so.

The other thing I think he needs to do is try to cut down those fouls so that he can stay on the floor for his defense. I think he's really up there as one of the better on-ball defenders in the league already. If you look at their stats, you notice Bridges has always picked up more steals than Jaden, and according to NBA.com's hustle stats, he got 2 deflections compared to Jaden's 1.6. But Jaden's just behind him in loose balls recovered at .7 to .8. And McDaniels is actually just ahead of Bridges in the number of 3 point shots he contests per game at 3 to 2.8 (interestingly, Gobert also contests 2.8 three pointers per game, which is a bit of a reminder that he can be a bit of a presence on the perimeter as well, when needed). But Jaden fouls more than 1 time per game more than Bridges despite playing nearly 10 fewer minutes than Bridges. That's a problem. And that's definitely one of the biggest differences between Jaden and Bridges at this point. That costs us points by putting the other team on the line, and also makes it harder to keep him on the floor more minutes, which we need to do for his defense.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/hustle/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=DEFLECTIONS&dir=1

Anyway, I hope Jaden makes a big step forward this coming year. His defense is very good. If he can improve his outside shooting and cut down on his fouls, I think the Bridges comparison is legit and I love Bridges.

Great breakdown, Drew!! There isn't another sports message board that provides anything close to this kind of information and analysis.

Love that Cam teed up the Jaden/Bridges comparison, which I consider a really interesting one. Then you took it the next step with some interesting comparative metrics. I agree with Q that Bridges is a high bar, but I think Jaden's talent is worthy of a high bar. And I'd emphasize Q's point that Bridges had three years of college experience before he came to the NBA - three years in a top-notch programs with a great head coach. Jaden would be an NBA rookie next season if he had stayed in college for three years like Bridges.

I wasn't a proponent of drafting McDaniels, but I became a big McDaniels fan less than half-way into his first season with the Wolves. I was disappointed in his progression last season, but I wasn't alarmed. There are three keys to the development of talented young players: (1) work ethic, (2) opportunity, and (3) patience. The first two are there. All we need now is some patience. Let's if he takes a big leap in his 3rd season like Bridges did. But we should also keep in mind that Bridges had two more years of high-level college experience before his first two NBA seasons. So I'm prepared for the possibility that McDaniels might not make his big leap until his 4th season. It took Chauncey Billups longer than that.

[thedoper]

If McDaniels can shut (or even slow) down Luka that is all that matters big picture. Bridges could not this year. That was Wiggins' most impressive feat of last year's playoffs was his D on Luka.