Minnesota Sports Forum

Posted: **Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:12 am**

Embid gets 5 more free points from free throws a game that KAT doesn't. KAT may play stylistically better more efficient offense, but the outcome and impact on the game is neglible. If KAT keeps playing like last night though, I think we will start seeing some MVP buzz for him too. Interesting that these two will be facing off soon. Hopefully KAT can get over the hump against Embid on Tuesday.

Posted: **Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:22 am**

longstrangetrip wrote:
AbeVigodaLive wrote:
Duke13 wrote:
kekgeek1 wrote:He has taken his game to the next level averaging 28/14/5/4 blks /1 stl in the last 6. The problem is if he makes all NBA he gets and extra 32 mil in his contract. It's a weird problem because we need him to keep this up to make the playoffs but it could hurt in the long run. Also Kat could stat hunt to try and get in.

Kat is the most stat aware player I've seen in a Wolves uni.

Kevin
Camden wrote:
AbeVigodaLive wrote:
khans2k5 wrote:
Camden0916 wrote:Anthony Davis, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Nikola Jokic. I don't see how Joel Embiid gets that nod over him.

This seems pretty out of touch with the pulse of the league. Embiid is being talked about as a potential MVP candidate if they overtake the Bucks for the 1 seed. Embiid is 100% second team or better as long as he doesn't miss a significant portion of the games. He's the best player on a top team with 3 stars and he's a two way star.

Ummm... yes. Definitely.

Embiid is basically a 27/14/4/2 guy who's known as an elite defender... who's playing for a team that's poised to win 50+ games.

Oof. I'll take this bet [with no actual payoff other than being right] if you're offering it. Towns is the superior player and I've only been saying it for years so I'm definitely not jumping ship when KAT's taking his game to a new level. What's happened this year is that Towns has closed the gap defensively while still being a more complete, gifted, and threatening offensive player despite perhaps being the less "powerful" of the two.

They're a close case in just about every single statistical category. PER, TS%, TRB%, AST%, STL%, BLK%, TOV%, WS (OWS and DWS), WS/48 -- it's all pretty identical. If you don't believe me, go look at how eerily close the two are. Towns has the decisive advantages in VORP, BPM (B.Ref), and anything related to 3P-shooting. Meanwhile, Embiid has the clear hold on RPM (ESPN) and plays on a team winning more games.

PS: I don't think you can definitively say that Embiid is the Sixers' best player anymore. Ben Simmons didn't disappear.

Isn't this about who's going to make the All NBA team?

Embiid is so highly regarded around the league without any sort of in-depth statistical comparison. Heck, he made 2nd team All NBA last season despite missing 19 games and scoring 4 ppg less than now and 2.5 fewer rebounds.

He's a lock unless he falls off a cliff. Literally. It's less a rip on anybody else... as simple acknowledgement about how the people who actually vote for the award view him.

I think this is about 2 things, Abe...who makes All-NBA, and the impact of that on the Wolves' lux tax and cap. It's arguable about who might deserve All-NBA more between Embiid and KAT...they are both terrific impactful players. But I agree that the East Coast ESPN prejudice will ensure Embiid is honored before KAT. And if that saves us $6 million a year against the cap, that's a good thing for this franchise. For once, I am grateful to the anti-Midwest prejudice of the media.

We simply disagree. About all of this... even the salary.

I want KAT to get the max. Personally, I don't want any market bias/salary issues to compromise KAT's long-term plans.

As for All NBA... right now... beyond this forum, there's minimal (if any) debate between KAT and Embiid for All NBA. And that includes voters from all over the league without anti-Midwest biases. KAT has been AWESOME in the past few weeks. But he wasn't as awesome early. He can play himself back into the All NBA team discussion if he keeps up the torrid pace, but that record will prove prohibitive when guys are comparing him to Jokic and Embiid. It's just the way it is... and has been.

Posted: **Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:27 am**

Yeah if KAT interprets him not getting all NBA because he plays on the Wolves that is a very bad thing for us. That would just reinforce the narrative that players need to be in bigger markets. Abe is right, the way for KAT to get all NBA is winning, regardless of market. He's got to win more to couple with the amazing stats he's been putting up.

Posted: **Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:53 am**

I think Embiid is still a more imposing force defensively and that is a huge part of the job description for Center and not always reflected so well in things like PER, BPM, etc.

That being said, the KAT of the last week or two is indeed playing at a different level. But Embiid has had a bigger impact overall when you look at the whole season.

Posted: **Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:04 pm**

AbeVigodaLive wrote:
longstrangetrip wrote:
AbeVigodaLive wrote:
Duke13 wrote:
kekgeek1 wrote:He has taken his game to the next level averaging 28/14/5/4 blks /1 stl in the last 6. The problem is if he makes all NBA he gets and extra 32 mil in his contract. It's a weird problem because we need him to keep this up to make the playoffs but it could hurt in the long run. Also Kat could stat hunt to try and get in.

Kat is the most stat aware player I've seen in a Wolves uni.

Kevin
Camden wrote:
AbeVigodaLive wrote:
khans2k5 wrote:
Camden0916 wrote:Anthony Davis, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Nikola Jokic. I don't see how Joel Embiid gets that nod over him.

This seems pretty out of touch with the pulse of the league. Embiid is being talked about as a potential MVP candidate if they overtake the Bucks for the 1 seed. Embiid is 100% second team or better as long as he doesn't miss a significant portion of the games. He's the best player on a top team with 3 stars and he's a two way star.

Ummm... yes. Definitely.

Embiid is basically a 27/14/4/2 guy who's known as an elite defender... who's playing for a team that's poised to win 50+ games.

Oof. I'll take this bet [with no actual payoff other than being right] if you're offering it. Towns is the superior player and I've only been saying it for years so I'm definitely not jumping ship when KAT's taking his game to a new level. What's happened this year is that Towns has closed the gap defensively while still being a more complete, gifted, and threatening offensive player despite perhaps being the less "powerful" of the two.

They're a close case in just about every single statistical category. PER, TS%, TRB%, AST%, STL%, BLK%, TOV%, WS (OWS and DWS), WS/48 -- it's all pretty identical. If you don't believe me, go look at how eerily close the two are. Towns has the decisive advantages in VORP, BPM (B.Ref), and anything related to 3P-shooting. Meanwhile, Embiid has the clear hold on RPM (ESPN) and plays on a team winning more games.

PS: I don't think you can definitively say that Embiid is the Sixers' best player anymore. Ben Simmons didn't disappear.

Isn't this about who's going to make the All NBA team?

Embiid is so highly regarded around the league without any sort of in-depth statistical comparison. Heck, he made 2nd team All NBA last season despite missing 19 games and scoring 4 ppg less than now and 2.5 fewer rebounds.

He's a lock unless he falls off a cliff. Literally. It's less a rip on anybody else... as simple acknowledgement about how the people who actually vote for the award view him.

I think this is about 2 things, Abe...who makes All-NBA, and the impact of that on the Wolves' lux tax and cap. It's arguable about who might deserve All-NBA more between Embiid and KAT...they are both terrific impactful players. But I agree that the East Coast ESPN prejudice will ensure Embiid is honored before KAT. And if that saves us $6 million a year against the cap, that's a good thing for this franchise. For once, I am grateful to the anti-Midwest prejudice of the media.

We simply disagree. About all of this... even the salary.

I want KAT to get the max. Personally, I don't want any market bias/salary issues to compromise KAT's long-term plans.

As for All NBA... right now... beyond this forum, there's minimal (if any) debate between KAT and Embiid for All NBA. And that includes voters from all over the league without anti-Midwest biases. KAT has been AWESOME in the past few weeks. But he wasn't as awesome early. He can play himself back into the All NBA team discussion if he keeps up the torrid pace, but that record will prove prohibitive when guys are comparing him to Jokic and Embiid. It's just the way it is... and has been.

If your argument is that Embiid is clearly the better player, and it's folly to include KAT in the All-NBA discussion, then yes...we're in strong disagreement on both issues. While I'm not in the same position as Cam in saying that KAT clearly is more deserving than Embiid, I do see them as comparable players. In fact, in addition to being way more durable, I see KAT as being statistically superior to Embiid this season in almost all area except PPG and RPG...and KAT's trendlines are better. KAT is a much more efficient scorer with his superior shooting percentage on 2's, 3's and free throws, and surprisingly has more steals per game and the same number of blocks per game, with fewer turnovers. Advanced stats seem to favor KAT this year too, or at least put them on equal footing. It's my perception that Embiid might alter more shots, although I don't have a stat on this and see Karl making huge strides in this area. Who do I think will be All-NBA? Probably Joel. But their stats sure seem comparable to me.

The other financial question basically comes down to where you want the $6 million per year going...to KAT, or to the Wolves payroll. I don't see any other way to look at it, and the answer is easy for me. Whether KAT makes $40 million or $34 million in a season has no impact on his lifestyle...he lives a life of luxury either way. But if that $6 million goes to KAT instead of being used on other players, it potentially has a huge impact on the level of supporting cast we can give KAT, and our ability to challenge for a championship (and before the argument comes out that we can have both if Glen agrees to go far into the lux tax, just stop...it isn't going to happen, so let's not bring it up). We have KAT locked up for several years, so I would rather have payroll available for players that can support him than have him feel good about being all-NBA. And I hope that KAT cares more about winning a championship than he does about individual honors...I suspect he does.

Posted: **Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:39 pm**

I'll mention again that we don't know what the numbers are for certain because we didn't know what was negotiated. If he only gets 3rd team all NBA he might part of that extra money. Unless some media member finds out we probably won't know until the numbers come out months from now. The way Towns has been playing if he keeps this up (I was kinda hoping to save money) I don't care about the money Towns is on his way to being an MVP type player. I want the guy to be that damn good because of he is that's MASSIVE. Did anyone see that step back move against the Pels? Sure it wasn't great but let's be honest Towns could end up having skill to do a legit step back 3...OMG that would be insane and hard to guard him. The guy is skilled.

Posted: **Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:46 pm**

Embiid is having the better season thus far and winning. Would anyone trade for Embiid with KAT? I wouldn't. That's even discounting the injury histories (assuming Embiid could stay fully healthy). Now that KAT has been much more effective on defense (lately) I can only see him continuing to get better. MVP talk? Nope. Not unless the Wolves make a huge push into say the 4-5 seed range. I also don't think KAT can pass Embiid for All-NBA either unless the Wolves make a strong push into the playoffs, of course KAT also continues this pace he is on.

I really think Embiid is going to have to get hurt for KAT to pass him. The poor start by KAT and the Wolves put them in such a big hole, I see it very unlikely KAT and the team can finish high enough to make it matter.

Posted: **Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:11 am**

longstrangetrip wrote:
AbeVigodaLive wrote:
longstrangetrip wrote:
AbeVigodaLive wrote:
Duke13 wrote:
kekgeek1 wrote:

Kevin
Camden wrote:
AbeVigodaLive wrote:
khans2k5 wrote:
Camden0916 wrote:Anthony Davis, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Nikola Jokic. I don't see how Joel Embiid gets that nod over him.

.

Ummm... yes. Definitely.

Embiid is basically a 27/14/4/2 guy who's known as an elite defender... who's playing for a team that's poised to win 50+ games.

Isn't this about who's going to make the All NBA team?

If your argument is that Embiid is clearly the better player, and it's folly to include KAT in the All-NBA discussion, then yes...we're in strong disagreement on both issues.

I didn't say anything remotely close to that. My opinion isn't about KAT vs. Embiid... it's simply an educated guess about their odds of landing on the All NBA teams. I don't have a vote. Other people do... and from what I've heard from some of those people...

(1) Embiid is revered more around the league than KAT is. (2) His team has a better record. (3) Plus, he finished ahead of KAT last year for All NBA and his numbers are up by 4 ppg and 2.5 rpg this season, so I simply added it up and I don't see how KAT surpasses him unless something changes.

KAT took a huge PR hit this season. And that's one of the reasons why Thibs should have been fired. You can't let your franchise player be dragged through the mud like that. You just can't. And I think we're seeing the effects of it already with All Star Voting (even thought it's mostly a silly exercise). KAT not even in the top 10 is actually quite telling. And very sad.

[Note: I think KAT has improved defensively. But he still has this tag of "lousy defender" that's stuck to him. His advanced stats actually surpass Embiid, even defensively. You see that. I see that. Do the people who actually vote know this? Do they care?]

Posted: **Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:31 am**

Abe check this out. It's one moment but stuff like this could matter.

https://twitter.com/espnnba/status/1084303694009647106?s=21

Posted: **Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:24 am**

monsterpile wrote:Abe check this out. It's one moment but stuff like this could matter.

https://twitter.com/espnnba/status/1084303694009647106?s=21

I think Minnesota sports fans are largely quite smart and fair...there are exceptions of course, but mostly fair. They're going to appreciate huge effort and results like KAT showed Saturday, and I think any player will appreciate that...the rousing support might even make him play better if I recall what I learned from BF Skinner in college. On the other hand, they are free to, and usually will, boo a very bad performance. The fans in my section mostly weren't booiing Wig for his critical missed free throws, they were mostly booing him for his lethargy and nonchalant attitude throughout the game. He may have called us "shitty fans" but we were more responding to a "shitty performance". And my take is that his much more inspired performance on offense and defense since then is at least in part due to his reaction to the booing...maybe it's an "I'll show them" or maybe he finally understands a player has to leave it all out there on the court, but for whatever reason there has been a much more intense Wig the past 2 weeks. His offensive performance has still been uneven, to be sure, but the 2-way effort has been noticeably improved.

My overall point is fans can have an impact on a team...it's one of several reasons home teams usually win. And the fans' positive reaction to KAT Saturday and negative reaction to Wig after the Atlanta game were both appropriate and helpful.

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