Minnesota Sports Forum

ALLDAYCHRIS wrote:thanks monster ive been looking for that. I'm not sure that's him being cool with coming off the bench though. My guess is he see's himself as a starter in that winning formula

ALLDAYCHRIS wrote:Ya he is kinda in a tricky spot though. He finally hit it off last year after being stuck behind harris and now ant is in his way. With the amount of money he is getting im betting on him starting

monsterpile wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:

FNG wrote:

Q12543 wrote:Solid deals, but not unexpected, right? I guess it's just good to get this stuff behind us before camp. It's been nice following the journey of Vando and JoMac from their G-league days to now likely being regular NBA rotation players (PBev and DLO will not stay healthy enough to keep JoMac on the bench all season).

Assuming no other moves are made, I'm pretty disappointed that we didn't find a way to add size and defense upfront. We are still going to get pushed around and bullied in the paint with this roster.

I agree with the sentiment on this board that it's nice to have Vando and JMac back. Vando has his limitations, but you can't question his effort and he thinks every rebound could be his. And JMac provides some PG depth behind 2 oft-injured PGs.

I also agree that Beverley and Prince are a slight improvement over Rubio, Culver and Prince...slight. And if we were a 50-win team, I would call it a marginally successful off-season. But we are a 23-win team, and a meh off-season like this one doesn't do it for me. Maybe we will have more health this year. But this roster is so defensively challenged, I see little hope of sniffing the playoffs even if we have perfect health.

Go all out for Simmons, or be comfortable with the low 30s win total Vegas is forecasting. Guys, the evidence is in: Vegas is much better at forecasting our win total than we are.

Where I differ with you, FNG, is in your focus on the Wolves 23 wins. I won't brush that number aside entire, but I don't think it comes close to accurately reflecting the potential of this Wolves team for the following reasons:

1. First, the Wolves were riddled with injuries and off-court issues last season that I believe had a substantial negative impact on that win total. KAT missed 30% of the team's games last season from a wrist injury and Covid, had a seriously injured wrist in most of the games he played, and began the season on the heels of his mom's passing from Covid. DLO missed over 40% of the team's games because of knee surgery and was probably hobbled by his knee in most of the game he played before his surgery. Malik Beasley played in only about half of the team's games because of an ankle injury.

2. Second, the lack of any meaningful training camp before last season likely had a disproportionally negative impact on the Wolves and similar teams that were young team and that hadn't played together for any significant length of time.

3. The Wolves relied pretty heavily on two rookies - Edwards and McDaniels -- who should both be significantly better as 2nd-year players based solely on the improvement experienced by most of the better NBA players in their second seasons. The improvement should be particular substantial for Edwards and McDaniels given their lack of any training camp or summer league before last season and the fact that they were both among the youngest members of their draft class.

4. The team will have a full training camp and season under a quality head coach after last year's teams spent its first 31 games under a head coach who shouldn't have been an NBA head coach.

Those four factors, in my view, held the Wolves win total significantly below the number of wins achievable with the talent on the team's roster. There is precedent for teams doubling or nearly doubling their win total in one season without substantial off-season personnel upgrades. The 2019-20 Suns were a good example as were the 2012-13 Warriors. KAT was an iron man until two years ago. I fully expect him to return to his normal high level of durability. I also expect Beasley to remain healthy. DLO is another question. He's never been particularly durable, but I'm hoping he's turned the corner after his knee procedure last season. I expect the Wolves to finish a little north of .500 next session, which should put them squally in the hunt of a playoff slot.

Knicks season before Thibs

21-45
23rd in D rating

Knicks with Thibs

41-31
3rd in D rating

This was with no significant changes to the roster. If Finch is legit like much of this board believes that's a pretty big deal.

lipoli390 wrote:

monsterpile wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:

FNG wrote:

Q12543 wrote:Solid deals, but not unexpected, right? I guess it's just good to get this stuff behind us before camp. It's been nice following the journey of Vando and JoMac from their G-league days to now likely being regular NBA rotation players (PBev and DLO will not stay healthy enough to keep JoMac on the bench all season).

Assuming no other moves are made, I'm pretty disappointed that we didn't find a way to add size and defense upfront. We are still going to get pushed around and bullied in the paint with this roster.

I agree with the sentiment on this board that it's nice to have Vando and JMac back. Vando has his limitations, but you can't question his effort and he thinks every rebound could be his. And JMac provides some PG depth behind 2 oft-injured PGs.

I also agree that Beverley and Prince are a slight improvement over Rubio, Culver and Prince...slight. And if we were a 50-win team, I would call it a marginally successful off-season. But we are a 23-win team, and a meh off-season like this one doesn't do it for me. Maybe we will have more health this year. But this roster is so defensively challenged, I see little hope of sniffing the playoffs even if we have perfect health.

Go all out for Simmons, or be comfortable with the low 30s win total Vegas is forecasting. Guys, the evidence is in: Vegas is much better at forecasting our win total than we are.

Where I differ with you, FNG, is in your focus on the Wolves 23 wins. I won't brush that number aside entire, but I don't think it comes close to accurately reflecting the potential of this Wolves team for the following reasons:

1. First, the Wolves were riddled with injuries and off-court issues last season that I believe had a substantial negative impact on that win total. KAT missed 30% of the team's games last season from a wrist injury and Covid, had a seriously injured wrist in most of the games he played, and began the season on the heels of his mom's passing from Covid. DLO missed over 40% of the team's games because of knee surgery and was probably hobbled by his knee in most of the game he played before his surgery. Malik Beasley played in only about half of the team's games because of an ankle injury.

2. Second, the lack of any meaningful training camp before last season likely had a disproportionally negative impact on the Wolves and similar teams that were young team and that hadn't played together for any significant length of time.

3. The Wolves relied pretty heavily on two rookies - Edwards and McDaniels -- who should both be significantly better as 2nd-year players based solely on the improvement experienced by most of the better NBA players in their second seasons. The improvement should be particular substantial for Edwards and McDaniels given their lack of any training camp or summer league before last season and the fact that they were both among the youngest members of their draft class.

4. The team will have a full training camp and season under a quality head coach after last year's teams spent its first 31 games under a head coach who shouldn't have been an NBA head coach.

Those four factors, in my view, held the Wolves win total significantly below the number of wins achievable with the talent on the team's roster. There is precedent for teams doubling or nearly doubling their win total in one season without substantial off-season personnel upgrades. The 2019-20 Suns were a good example as were the 2012-13 Warriors. KAT was an iron man until two years ago. I fully expect him to return to his normal high level of durability. I also expect Beasley to remain healthy. DLO is another question. He's never been particularly durable, but I'm hoping he's turned the corner after his knee procedure last season. I expect the Wolves to finish a little north of .500 next session, which should put them squally in the hunt of a playoff slot.

Knicks season before Thibs

21-45
23rd in D rating

Knicks with Thibs

41-31
3rd in D rating

This was with no significant changes to the roster. If Finch is legit like much of this board believes that's a pretty big deal.

Yes, Monster. Another excellent example of how much NBA teams can improve in one season without any major offseason personnel moves. The vast majority of an NBA team's minutes generally go to 8 players. A change or improvement in just two of those eight positions represents 25% of a team's rotation. Beyond personnel, the Knicks example illustrates the tremendous impact an NBA head coach can have.

FNG wrote:Lip and Monster, I appreciate the optimism in your posts here. I really want to believe that the Timberwolves can double their win total from last season...I really do. And I agree that Lip's list of reasons for last year's debacle is valid. But haven't we been here before? It seems like deja vu all over again to quote Yogi. Last year was always an aberration, and next year will be different because...(fill in the blank).

But the fact of the matter is this is still the Timberwolves, and it's difficult to argue with the following:

1) This team won 23 games last year, and Vegas has generously given them 11 more wins this year...a 50% increase...largely because of the bullet points Lip listed above.

2) But while the Suns and Knicks doubled win comeback years were impressive, we can all agree that years like that are quite rare.

3) While we can praise Rosas for making some decent trades this season, the improvement in the roster is marginal at best.

4) Yes, the Wolves were hit by the injury bug last year. But several players on our roster have a history of missing many games per season. Isn't it just as likely that guys like Ant, Jaden and Naz get hurt like they didn't last season, as it is that guys like KAT, Dlo and Beasley play 70+ games?

5) Dlo is a fine offensive player who actually showed last season he has potential to be an efficient scorer. But his defensive deficiencies are so pronounced, I'm just not convinced he can be a max player on a winning team. Maybe if we can somehow add Simmons though...

6) Vegas has forecast 34 wins this season. Take a look at previous win total prediction threads here, and ask yourself this question: Who has been better at forecasting the Wolves' win total the past 5 years- Vegas, or this board? History tells us our median forecast will again be about 7-10 wins too high.

Again, sorry about the pessimism...I much prefer the tone of Lip's and Monster's posts above. But I can't help thinking the headwinds are too strong for this team if Rosas isn't able to close the Simmons deal that may be out there for him.

monsterpile wrote:

FNG wrote:Lip and Monster, I appreciate the optimism in your posts here. I really want to believe that the Timberwolves can double their win total from last season...I really do. And I agree that Lip's list of reasons for last year's debacle is valid. But haven't we been here before? It seems like deja vu all over again to quote Yogi. Last year was always an aberration, and next year will be different because...(fill in the blank).

But the fact of the matter is this is still the Timberwolves, and it's difficult to argue with the following:

1) This team won 23 games last year, and Vegas has generously given them 11 more wins this year...a 50% increase...largely because of the bullet points Lip listed above.

2) But while the Suns and Knicks doubled win comeback years were impressive, we can all agree that years like that are quite rare.

3) While we can praise Rosas for making some decent trades this season, the improvement in the roster is marginal at best.

4) Yes, the Wolves were hit by the injury bug last year. But several players on our roster have a history of missing many games per season. Isn't it just as likely that guys like Ant, Jaden and Naz get hurt like they didn't last season, as it is that guys like KAT, Dlo and Beasley play 70+ games?

5) Dlo is a fine offensive player who actually showed last season he has potential to be an efficient scorer. But his defensive deficiencies are so pronounced, I'm just not convinced he can be a max player on a winning team. Maybe if we can somehow add Simmons though...

6) Vegas has forecast 34 wins this season. Take a look at previous win total prediction threads here, and ask yourself this question: Who has been better at forecasting the Wolves' win total the past 5 years- Vegas, or this board? History tells us our median forecast will again be about 7-10 wins too high.

Again, sorry about the pessimism...I much prefer the tone of Lip's and Monster's posts above. But I can't help thinking the headwinds are too strong for this team if Rosas isn't able to close the Simmons deal that may be out there for him.

Are you a believer in Finch?

FNG wrote:

monsterpile wrote:

FNG wrote:Lip and Monster, I appreciate the optimism in your posts here. I really want to believe that the Timberwolves can double their win total from last season...I really do. And I agree that Lip's list of reasons for last year's debacle is valid. But haven't we been here before? It seems like deja vu all over again to quote Yogi. Last year was always an aberration, and next year will be different because...(fill in the blank).

But the fact of the matter is this is still the Timberwolves, and it's difficult to argue with the following:

1) This team won 23 games last year, and Vegas has generously given them 11 more wins this year...a 50% increase...largely because of the bullet points Lip listed above.

2) But while the Suns and Knicks doubled win comeback years were impressive, we can all agree that years like that are quite rare.

3) While we can praise Rosas for making some decent trades this season, the improvement in the roster is marginal at best.

4) Yes, the Wolves were hit by the injury bug last year. But several players on our roster have a history of missing many games per season. Isn't it just as likely that guys like Ant, Jaden and Naz get hurt like they didn't last season, as it is that guys like KAT, Dlo and Beasley play 70+ games?

5) Dlo is a fine offensive player who actually showed last season he has potential to be an efficient scorer. But his defensive deficiencies are so pronounced, I'm just not convinced he can be a max player on a winning team. Maybe if we can somehow add Simmons though...

6) Vegas has forecast 34 wins this season. Take a look at previous win total prediction threads here, and ask yourself this question: Who has been better at forecasting the Wolves' win total the past 5 years- Vegas, or this board? History tells us our median forecast will again be about 7-10 wins too high.

Again, sorry about the pessimism...I much prefer the tone of Lip's and Monster's posts above. But I can't help thinking the headwinds are too strong for this team if Rosas isn't able to close the Simmons deal that may be out there for him.

Are you a believer in Finch?

Oh yeah, I love Finch. And I think the Vegas wise guys think he's a big upgrade too. It's one of the reasons they have the Timberwolves as the biggest percentage increase in their win projections this year. But they are also smart enough to recognize the defensive struggles on this roster, and to know that will prevent us from doubling our win total. No matter how much I like Finch, he's not good enough to make Beasley and Dlo play adequate defense. If we're being honest, we have to admit that.