Minnesota Sports Forum

Would the Wolves be interested in upgrading their PG spot? Sure not reason not to at least explore the options. I doubt anything will happen but I'll share a couple thoughts.

1. If you find out what the market is for other vet guys that are legit starting PGs then you find out:

-How much Rubio is worth based on his contract especially compared to what other guys will get. It might give you a better sense of who might have interest in Rubio as well.

-Who will actually be reasonably available to you if you decided to make such a move.

2. In theory if you sign another legit starting PG that's one less another team can acquire which would MAYBE create more of a market for Rubio even if you basically had to move him.

3. The guys mentioned are all better shooters and Hill and Jrue make sense when it comes to fit with this squad. I think Teague is an experienced scoring PG I like his fit less but he can hit shots. How much better are those guys than Rubio? It's difficult to completely quantify that. As has been discussed plenty of time rating PGs after the really good ones gets messy pretty quickly. I think it's pretty likely that Rubio is the starting PG to begin next season.

Q12543 wrote:

khans2k5 wrote:

Q12543 wrote:Stats Inventory - The Wolves:

PER (team ranking)/WSper48 (rank)/BPM (rank)/VORP(rank):

KAT - 26.0(#1)/.201(#1)/5.0(#1)/5.4(#1)
Rubio - 16.8(#2)/.119(#2)/.8(#3)/1.7(#3)
Wiggins - 16.5 (#3)/.066(#9)/-2.7(#12)/-.6(#15)
Dieng - 14.2(#7)/.103(#4)/1.7(#2)/2.5(#2)
LaVine - 14.6(#5)/.082(eight)/-.3(#5)/.8(#4)

Khansy, It looks to me that KAT and Rubio are the two guys carrying the Wolves! Rubio is 2nd or 3rd in every major stat category from B-Ref and he is above league average in all categories as well! These two guys are the ones needing help.....

So Ricky is too good to trade away, but not good enough to be the #2 player on a playoff team? Not necessarily a good playoff team, just a playoff team which more than half the league qualifies. Sounds like a keeper. I never understood that argument for a non-all-star player. He's too good to trade, but he needs others to carry him to success.

Not too good to trade away, but I struggle to find a deal that truly works. He sort of works here because our primary scorers are wings and a big. Most other teams rely on their PG to do a lot more scoring where we actually need a pass-first kind of guy. I just struggle to identify a deal that brings us back equivalent value.

I just think the "it's not working here with him" or "he's a loser" type argument are broad generalities that ignore the underlying details as to why we aren't winning games.

I don't think he's the sole reason we are losing games. There's plenty to point the finger at. I've even gone after KAT a bunch for his shift defense most of this year. I think he's not helping us win either though so that's where I jump off the bandwagon. What has he done since he got here to have people believe he contributes so positively to a winning effort when we just haven't won with him? This is his second coach who is probably in the 2nd tier of great NBA coaches (Adelman and Thibs). This is the second time he's been paired with an All-NBA talent. And his whole career we've sniffed the playoffs once and ultimately missed. At some point you have to question if his contributions are something that we can win games with. All these advanced stats keep coming back to his defense and yet the numbers that ultimately matter are wins and losses. You have to play a certain way with him as your PG because he is ineffective without the ball in his hands so does having him as your primary ball handler work in the NBA? I've seen nothing to suggest it can in 5 years. Hence my willingness to move deck furniture. It may not be an obvious upgrade or even an upgrade at all on paper. That doesn't mean we are automatically worse off because it could lead to a completely different style of play that better works with this roster.

Q12543 wrote:

khans2k5 wrote:

Q12543 wrote:Stats Inventory - The Wolves:

PER (team ranking)/WSper48 (rank)/BPM (rank)/VORP(rank):

KAT - 26.0(#1)/.201(#1)/5.0(#1)/5.4(#1)
Rubio - 16.8(#2)/.119(#2)/.8(#3)/1.7(#3)
Wiggins - 16.5 (#3)/.066(#9)/-2.7(#12)/-.6(#15)
Dieng - 14.2(#7)/.103(#4)/1.7(#2)/2.5(#2)
LaVine - 14.6(#5)/.082(eight)/-.3(#5)/.8(#4)

Khansy, It looks to me that KAT and Rubio are the two guys carrying the Wolves! Rubio is 2nd or 3rd in every major stat category from B-Ref and he is above league average in all categories as well! These two guys are the ones needing help.....

So Ricky is too good to trade away, but not good enough to be the #2 player on a playoff team? Not necessarily a good playoff team, just a playoff team which more than half the league qualifies. Sounds like a keeper. I never understood that argument for a non-all-star player. He's too good to trade, but he needs others to carry him to success.

Not too good to trade away, but I struggle to find a deal that truly works. He sort of works here because our primary scorers are wings and a big. Most other teams rely on their PG to do a lot more scoring where we actually need a pass-first kind of guy. I just struggle to identify a deal that brings us back equivalent value.

I just think the "it's not working here with him" or "he's a loser" type argument are broad generalities that ignore the underlying details as to why we aren't winning games.

Hypothetically, if Detroit pawned Reggie Jackson off on someone else would you trade Rubio for Tobias Harris then pursue one of the three rumored PGs?

(Teague/Hill/Holiday)
LaVine
Wiggins
Harris
KAT

Certainly not a contender, but I think it's a better team than last season. At worst, a lateral move at PG, a forward to stick next to KAT, and Dieng helps strengthen a poor bench.

You're right though, it's tough finding a deal where the team taking on Rubio would need him as anything more than a back-up without prefacing the deal with another trade leaving a PG void Rubio would fill.

Q12543 wrote:

khans2k5 wrote:

Q12543 wrote:Stats Inventory - The Wolves:

PER (team ranking)/WSper48 (rank)/BPM (rank)/VORP(rank):

KAT - 26.0(#1)/.201(#1)/5.0(#1)/5.4(#1)
Rubio - 16.8(#2)/.119(#2)/.8(#3)/1.7(#3)
Wiggins - 16.5 (#3)/.066(#9)/-2.7(#12)/-.6(#15)
Dieng - 14.2(#7)/.103(#4)/1.7(#2)/2.5(#2)
LaVine - 14.6(#5)/.082(eight)/-.3(#5)/.8(#4)

Khansy, It looks to me that KAT and Rubio are the two guys carrying the Wolves! Rubio is 2nd or 3rd in every major stat category from B-Ref and he is above league average in all categories as well! These two guys are the ones needing help.....

So Ricky is too good to trade away, but not good enough to be the #2 player on a playoff team? Not necessarily a good playoff team, just a playoff team which more than half the league qualifies. Sounds like a keeper. I never understood that argument for a non-all-star player. He's too good to trade, but he needs others to carry him to success.

Not too good to trade away, but I struggle to find a deal that truly works. He sort of works here because our primary scorers are wings and a big. Most other teams rely on their PG to do a lot more scoring where we actually need a pass-first kind of guy. I just struggle to identify a deal that brings us back equivalent value.

I just think the "it's not working here with him" or "he's a loser" type argument are broad generalities that ignore the underlying details as to why we aren't winning games.

Yet another Rubio debate. It's getting old. The facts support Q's analysis. Of course a Rubio trade should NOT be off the table. But he shouldn't be traded if the trade doesn't clearly improve the team and I don't see any plausible trades that would pass that test. Trading him just to trade him based on the "not working here" or "loser" arguments would, as Q suggested, would be silly. If we were devoid of scorers then I could see swapping Rubio out for another PG whose impact is comparable to Ricky's but who shoots better. But we are one of the few teams loaded with scorers at other positions - KAT, Wiggins and LaVine. Paying big money to sign Holiday, Teague or Hill just doesn't make much sense to me. Ricky is neither the solution nor the problem with the Wolves. The main problems lie elsewhere. Hopefully, the maturation of Wiggins, KAT and LaVine will shine through this next season. And hopefully we'll add 3-point shooting and defense through free agency and the draft this summer. If we can get a really good deal for Rubio without taking a step back at PG, then by all means I hope we make the deal. I just don't see that sort of scenario unfolding.

I think in most cases where there is smoke there has to be a little fire. Thibs certainly has never come out and completely endorsed Ricky. He doesn't throw him under the bus either, but he doesn't act like a coach totally sold on his lead guard.

Based on the impact Ricky has on our team vs the expected return on a trade, he isn't the easiest guy to move. We don't know how good our young building blocks are going to become, so it's hard to know whether this team can win big with Ricky in his current role. If this board is representative of the Wolves fan base, I don't believe the fans understand the process involved in the maturation of players. Just because we've floundered for so long, you can't rush the current rebuild. Yes, the advanced stats can be used to paint whatever negative narrative you want to support, but to me they really don't mean much at this juncture. These guys are still babies learning to play without any real veteran leadership. They've been thrown into the fire and forced to sink or swim. Unfortunately they've mostly sunk, but is it really that surprising knowing what we know today?

Thibs has to decide whether Ricky fits in with his image of our team in 3 years, not what we are today. Hopefully he has already made that determination and has a plan in place to move in the chosen direction. Personally I like Ricky the player and man. I'm really curious what happens this summer. I think the actions of Thibs are going to tell us everything we need to know.

Any interest in Eric Bledsoe here? Depending upon how the draft shakes out, I'm guessing he could be had.

CoolBreeze44 wrote:I think in most cases where there is smoke there has to be a little fire. Thibs certainly has never come out and completely endorsed Ricky. He doesn't throw him under the bus either, but he doesn't act like a coach totally sold on his lead guard.

Based on the impact Ricky has on our team vs the expected return on a trade, he isn't the easiest guy to move. We don't know how good our young building blocks are going to become, so it's hard to know whether this team can win big with Ricky in his current role. If this board is representative of the Wolves fan base, I don't believe the fans understand the process involved in the maturation of players. Just because we've floundered for so long, you can't rush the current rebuild. Yes, the advanced stats can be used to paint whatever negative narrative you want to support, but to me they really don't mean much at this juncture. These guys are still babies learning to play without any real veteran leadership. They've been thrown into the fire and forced to sink or swim. Unfortunately they've mostly sunk, but is it really that surprising knowing what we know today?

Thibs has to decide whether Ricky fits in with his image of our team in 3 years, not what we are today. Hopefully he has already made that determination and has a plan in place to move in the chosen direction. Personally I like Ricky the player and man. I'm really curious what happens this summer. I think the actions of Thibs are going to tell us everything we need to know.

A good, sober analysis, Cool. I agree completely on not rushing the rebuild. There are no shortcuts. KAT, Wiggins, LaVine and Dunn will develop or not over the next several years. This team will rise or fall on their development or lack thereof. Ricky's a solid PG who complements the scoring talents of our young core of scorers. But as you pointed out, it's too early in the development of our young core to know whether the team can win big with Ricky as our starting PG. As for Thibs' view of Ricky, it's hard to know since Thibs plays everything so close to the vest. He certainly praised Ricky a lot after the season, saying how impressed he was by Ricky's work ethic and that he wasn't surprised by Ricky's improvement in light of that work ethic. Your assessment of Thibs' view of Ricky reflects what I heard from folks in the organization -- He's not totally sold, but isn't negative either. Thibs likes hard work and competitiveness -- two attributes that Ricky has in spades.

So I'm interesting in seeing what Thibs does this summer. Who will he draft at #7? Will he trade the #7 pick for a veteran? Will he trade down for a lower pick and another asset? Will he go after a big-money free agent like Ibaka or Millsap? If not, who in the next tier of free agents will he pursue and ultimately land? Will he find a talented under-the-radar free agent at a reasonable price? Will he trade any of our current players (maybe Ricky) and, if so, who will be get in return? I'm guessing Thibs will trade the pick -- either straight up for a vet or for a lower pick and another asset. But I wouldn't bet on that and I have no feel for what else he might do.

Advanced Stat that nobody seems to pay attention to is BPM (Box Score Plus Minus):

Averaging the BPM for their first three years:

Wiggins: BPM is -2.4
Zach: BPM is -2.0
Ricky: BPM is 1.5

Ricky has a positive BPM in every year (including each of his first three years) except for his 22 game injury shortened year. Zach and Wiggins have a BPM that is negative every year. And posters are wondering if we can win with Ricky as our point guard. This is Bizarre. We should be asking if we can win with Wiggins and Zach.

MikeAz wrote:Any interest in Eric Bledsoe here? Depending upon how the draft shakes out, I'm guessing he could be had.

Perhaps. He's a good PG and in the prime of his career, but he's also a scoring PG that carries a high usage rate and his long-range shooting isn't much better than Rubio's. He relies a lot on slashing and getting to the line. Again, how much does he move the needle versus Rubio? And what do we do with Rubio then?

My hope is that the Rubio situation resolves itself in one of two positive ways:

1) The team around him gets so much better that all they need is a solid PG and there is such depth of PGs in the league that it becomes easy to eventually let him go via free agency and either promote Dunn or sign a solid free agent PG that is attracted to playing with a really good core. Let his contract run its course and in the meantime he's getting KAT, Wig, and LaVine a bunch of shots and they in turn start taking on more play making duties.

OR

2) Rubio finally develops a consistent 3-point shot, the Wolves start winning a bunch of games, and we sign him to his third deal.

Q12543 wrote:

MikeAz wrote:Any interest in Eric Bledsoe here? Depending upon how the draft shakes out, I'm guessing he could be had.

Perhaps. He's a good PG and in the prime of his career, but he's also a scoring PG that carries a high usage rate and his long-range shooting isn't much better than Rubio's. He relies a lot on slashing and getting to the line. Again, how much does he move the needle versus Rubio? And what do we do with Rubio then?

My hope is that the Rubio situation resolves itself in one of two positive ways:

1) The team around him gets so much better that all they need is a solid PG and there is such depth of PGs in the league that it becomes easy to eventually let him go via free agency and either promote Dunn or sign a solid free agent PG that is attracted to playing with a really good core. Let his contract run its course and in the meantime he's getting KAT, Wig, and LaVine a bunch of shots and they in turn start taking on more play making duties.

OR

2) Rubio finally develops a consistent 3-point shot, the Wolves start winning a bunch of games, and we sign him to his third deal.

How available Bledsoe is or isn't depends on who the Suns draft. If they don't draft a PG he isn't going anywhere. If they draft a PG then yeah they will look to deal him but they don't HAVE to deal him unless they get something worthwhile back. He can play SG with another PG. I doubt they feel so good about Ullis they would let Bledsoe go unless they got a nice return. Bledsoe is on a similar pretty much bargain contract that Rubio is on which adds to his value.

Brandon Knight is a guy that at this point they may have to pay for someone to take him. He had a couple pretty good seasons but fell off the map last year and advanced stats are ugly. If he didn't make so much money for 3 years I would consider taking him on hoping he could be reclaimed as a Lou Williams hot or not scoring 6th man type. He is still just 25 which seems crazy. A guy with his theoretical skill set would be really nice to add to this team but I worry he is a volume guy that may not do well without a lot of minutes and....I think he might make many Wolves players look like defensive stalwarts. Ok maybe not but he has looked bad the last couple years in games I have seen him play and I am not looking for reasons to rip the guy.