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Re: Vegas Win Predictions in West

Posted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:31 am
by khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]
longstrangetrip wrote:
monsterpile wrote:
khans2k5 wrote:Can someone also explain to me why NO's is thought of so highly? They lost Cousins and Rondo. They have AD, Mirotic, Holiday and scrubs outside of maybe Randle who will be backing up AD because AD hates playing Center. AD never plays a full 82 and Holiday outside of last year and very early in his career misses a bunch of time. I really just don't understand how they can be thought of as a better team than us. We beat them every time we played them last year and they got worse. I just think we are getting heavily disrespected and teams with one really good player like LAL and NO are getting bumps because of that one guy when this conference is stacked with teams with multiple good players. You can't get away with that. Steph, Klay, KD, Draymond. CP3 & Harden. Mitchell & Gobert. Lillard & CJ. Butler & Towns. Westbrook & PG13. Hell even DeRozan & LA. I just really don't see it in a conference this stacked that one all-star teams will be anywhere but at the bottom fighting for 7/8.


I don't really get that one either. Losing Rondo is pretty big the downgrade to Elfris Payten might be significant there. They do have Mirotic for an entire season and Randle really compliments AD and Mirotic well. If Solomon Hill is healthy and can contribute that will help. I don't get how that roster which does make sense is better than the Wolves but maybe Vegas just is assuming everyone this going to go bad for the Wolves or something. A bunch of these teams are gonna be so close a game or 2 prediction one way or another isn't something I am too worked up about.


It's because they lost Cousins that Vegas is so high on the Pellies...Cousins is one of those guys who looks good on paper, but not in the standings. NO was an average team before Cousins got hurt, then finished the season 20-8 after he was done. Then they capped off the strong finish with a 4-0 sweep of Portland in the playoffs. Yes, losing Rondo hurts. But a full season of Mitotic and no Cousins more than makes up for that loss. I see them easily going over the 45.5 total.


Everyone here always puts too much emphasis on the closing stretch of seasons. Players who close out strong just automatically start there the following season. Teams who close hot start out at that point the following season. That's prime tanking and resting time. If NO was the only team who closed out hot I would buy it more, but multiple teams finished the year on crazy streaks which is why we ended up 8 instead of 3. We got no help from anyone above us even though we just needed a little. The fact is the league is more competitive before the All-star break when everyone still has something to play for and then the competition falls off as more teams are eliminated from doing something that matters that season. It's a trap many including myself have fallen into over the years. I've just learned to not keep falling for it anymore.

Re: Vegas Win Predictions in West

Posted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:11 am
by AbeVigodaLive
khans2k5 wrote:
longstrangetrip wrote:
monsterpile wrote:
khans2k5 wrote:Can someone also explain to me why NO's is thought of so highly? They lost Cousins and Rondo. They have AD, Mirotic, Holiday and scrubs outside of maybe Randle who will be backing up AD because AD hates playing Center. AD never plays a full 82 and Holiday outside of last year and very early in his career misses a bunch of time. I really just don't understand how they can be thought of as a better team than us. We beat them every time we played them last year and they got worse. I just think we are getting heavily disrespected and teams with one really good player like LAL and NO are getting bumps because of that one guy when this conference is stacked with teams with multiple good players. You can't get away with that. Steph, Klay, KD, Draymond. CP3 & Harden. Mitchell & Gobert. Lillard & CJ. Butler & Towns. Westbrook & PG13. Hell even DeRozan & LA. I just really don't see it in a conference this stacked that one all-star teams will be anywhere but at the bottom fighting for 7/8.


I don't really get that one either. Losing Rondo is pretty big the downgrade to Elfris Payten might be significant there. They do have Mirotic for an entire season and Randle really compliments AD and Mirotic well. If Solomon Hill is healthy and can contribute that will help. I don't get how that roster which does make sense is better than the Wolves but maybe Vegas just is assuming everyone this going to go bad for the Wolves or something. A bunch of these teams are gonna be so close a game or 2 prediction one way or another isn't something I am too worked up about.


It's because they lost Cousins that Vegas is so high on the Pellies...Cousins is one of those guys who looks good on paper, but not in the standings. NO was an average team before Cousins got hurt, then finished the season 20-8 after he was done. Then they capped off the strong finish with a 4-0 sweep of Portland in the playoffs. Yes, losing Rondo hurts. But a full season of Mitotic and no Cousins more than makes up for that loss. I see them easily going over the 45.5 total.


Everyone here always puts too much emphasis on the closing stretch of seasons. Players who close out strong just automatically start there the following season. Teams who close hot start out at that point the following season. That's prime tanking and resting time. If NO was the only team who closed out hot I would buy it more, but multiple teams finished the year on crazy streaks which is why we ended up 8 instead of 3. We got no help from anyone above us even though we just needed a little. The fact is the league is more competitive before the All-star break when everyone still has something to play for and then the competition falls off as more teams are eliminated from doing something that matters that season. It's a trap many including myself have fallen into over the years. I've just learned to not keep falling for it anymore.



While true that late-season success for teams (and players) can be a bit of a mirage.... I wouldn't dismiss it entirely. New Orleans should get some credit for winning a lot of games... while jockeying for position against other teams playing well. I certainly wouldn't hold it against them.

In addition, there might be something to learn from the postseason, too. Portland was another of those teams that played well down the stretch to get a higher seed.

New Orleans swept them out of the playoffs.

Re: Vegas Win Predictions in West

Posted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:39 am
by Monster
AbeVigodaLive wrote:
khans2k5 wrote:
longstrangetrip wrote:
monsterpile wrote:
khans2k5 wrote:Can someone also explain to me why NO's is thought of so highly? They lost Cousins and Rondo. They have AD, Mirotic, Holiday and scrubs outside of maybe Randle who will be backing up AD because AD hates playing Center. AD never plays a full 82 and Holiday outside of last year and very early in his career misses a bunch of time. I really just don't understand how they can be thought of as a better team than us. We beat them every time we played them last year and they got worse. I just think we are getting heavily disrespected and teams with one really good player like LAL and NO are getting bumps because of that one guy when this conference is stacked with teams with multiple good players. You can't get away with that. Steph, Klay, KD, Draymond. CP3 & Harden. Mitchell & Gobert. Lillard & CJ. Butler & Towns. Westbrook & PG13. Hell even DeRozan & LA. I just really don't see it in a conference this stacked that one all-star teams will be anywhere but at the bottom fighting for 7/8.


I don't really get that one either. Losing Rondo is pretty big the downgrade to Elfris Payten might be significant there. They do have Mirotic for an entire season and Randle really compliments AD and Mirotic well. If Solomon Hill is healthy and can contribute that will help. I don't get how that roster which does make sense is better than the Wolves but maybe Vegas just is assuming everyone this going to go bad for the Wolves or something. A bunch of these teams are gonna be so close a game or 2 prediction one way or another isn't something I am too worked up about.


It's because they lost Cousins that Vegas is so high on the Pellies...Cousins is one of those guys who looks good on paper, but not in the standings. NO was an average team before Cousins got hurt, then finished the season 20-8 after he was done. Then they capped off the strong finish with a 4-0 sweep of Portland in the playoffs. Yes, losing Rondo hurts. But a full season of Mitotic and no Cousins more than makes up for that loss. I see them easily going over the 45.5 total.


Everyone here always puts too much emphasis on the closing stretch of seasons. Players who close out strong just automatically start there the following season. Teams who close hot start out at that point the following season. That's prime tanking and resting time. If NO was the only team who closed out hot I would buy it more, but multiple teams finished the year on crazy streaks which is why we ended up 8 instead of 3. We got no help from anyone above us even though we just needed a little. The fact is the league is more competitive before the All-star break when everyone still has something to play for and then the competition falls off as more teams are eliminated from doing something that matters that season. It's a trap many including myself have fallen into over the years. I've just learned to not keep falling for it anymore.



While true that late-season success for teams (and players) can be a bit of a mirage.... I wouldn't dismiss it entirely. New Orleans should get some credit for winning a lot of games... while jockeying for position against other teams playing well. I certainly wouldn't hold it against them.

In addition, there might be something to learn from the postseason, too. Portland was another of those teams that played well down the stretch to get a higher seed.

New Orleans swept them out of the playoffs.


Good stuff here. I will add that after Harkless went down with an injury Portland finished the season 4-5. In addition they were just 5-7 to finish the season after that 13 game win streak so they didn't actually finish that hot. Harkless didn't play till games 2 and 3 in the playoffs. 1 player espcially of Harkless I'll shouldnt matter that much but it's a factor (including playing under .500 the last stretch of games) that should be pointed out.

Re: Vegas Win Predictions in West

Posted: Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:33 pm
by Coolbreeze44
longstrangetrip wrote:
monsterpile wrote:
khans2k5 wrote:Can someone also explain to me why NO's is thought of so highly? They lost Cousins and Rondo. They have AD, Mirotic, Holiday and scrubs outside of maybe Randle who will be backing up AD because AD hates playing Center. AD never plays a full 82 and Holiday outside of last year and very early in his career misses a bunch of time. I really just don't understand how they can be thought of as a better team than us. We beat them every time we played them last year and they got worse. I just think we are getting heavily disrespected and teams with one really good player like LAL and NO are getting bumps because of that one guy when this conference is stacked with teams with multiple good players. You can't get away with that. Steph, Klay, KD, Draymond. CP3 & Harden. Mitchell & Gobert. Lillard & CJ. Butler & Towns. Westbrook & PG13. Hell even DeRozan & LA. I just really don't see it in a conference this stacked that one all-star teams will be anywhere but at the bottom fighting for 7/8.


I don't really get that one either. Losing Rondo is pretty big the downgrade to Elfris Payten might be significant there. They do have Mirotic for an entire season and Randle really compliments AD and Mirotic well. If Solomon Hill is healthy and can contribute that will help. I don't get how that roster which does make sense is better than the Wolves but maybe Vegas just is assuming everyone this going to go bad for the Wolves or something. A bunch of these teams are gonna be so close a game or 2 prediction one way or another isn't something I am too worked up about.


It's because they lost Cousins that Vegas is so high on the Pellies...Cousins is one of those guys who looks good on paper, but not in the standings. NO was an average team before Cousins got hurt, then finished the season 20-8 after he was done. Then they capped off the strong finish with a 4-0 sweep of Portland in the playoffs. Yes, losing Rondo hurts. But a full season of Mitotic and no Cousins more than makes up for that loss. I see them easily going over the 45.5 total.

LST, I've been saying the same thing for years. Addition by subtraction in the case of Cousins.