Minnesota Sports Forum

I'm with Kahns and LST in believing we should not spend money on free agents this summer to an extent that would put us over the luxury tax threshold. Like Kahns and LST I can't see the MLE, LLE and minimum cap exceptions bringing in guys who will move the needle to the point where the Wolves are up there with Golden State, Houston or even Boston as likely contenders for a championship. However, if the Wolves were somehow able to bring in another elite player like Kawhi Leonard or LeBron via trade without losing Butler or KAT, then I could see maxing out on free agent spending (retaining Belly, paying the full MLE and LLE, and signing Rose to the vet minimum) even though it would put us over the luxury tax threshold. But obviously such a scenario is highly unlikely.

Nevertheless, I see the other side. If you believe the Butler, KAT, Wiggins trio, along with Teague and Gibson, forms the nucleus of a championship contender, then you would have to conclude that the Wolves' disappointing 8th place finish was attributable to the team's lack of quality depth and the time required for players to adjust to one another. In that case, I see the argument for going all in this summer financially on free agents.

I just don't see our core group of players as the core of a championship contender. So I'd spend the full MLE to get the best rotation player available to improve our 3-point shooting or rim protection and give our two rookies every chance to help the team. Then let's see what we've got. If we end up contending this season, then we should poney up the money to retain Butler next summer and move forward. If not, then we'll have to let Butler go and hope Teague decides to leave as well. Then we can retool around KAT, Wiggins, Patton, Tyus and our two recent draft picks. Part of the retooling might be trading Wiggins, but that's more of a rebuild.

In any event, I see two paths this summer -- one is the Cam/Monster path that goes all in financially with our current core; the other is the Kahns/LST path that goes only partway until the current core group shows that they're more than one final home win better than the best lottery team. I choose the Khans/LST path. I took the red pill. :)

lipoli390 wrote:I'm with Kahns and LST in believing we should not spend money on free agents this summer to an extent that would put us over the luxury tax threshold. Like Kahns and LST I can't see the MLE, LLE and minimum cap exceptions bringing in guys who will move the needle to the point where the Wolves are up there with Golden State, Houston or even Boston as likely contenders for a championship. However, if the Wolves were somehow able to bring in another elite player like Kawhi Leonard or LeBron via trade without losing Butler or KAT, then I could see maxing out on free agent spending (retaining Belly, paying the full MLE and LLE, and signing Rose to the vet minimum) even though it would put us over the luxury tax threshold. But obviously such a scenario is highly unlikely.

Nevertheless, I see the other side. If you believe the Butler, KAT, Wiggins trio, along with Teague and Gibson, forms the nucleus of a championship contender, then you would have to conclude that the Wolves' disappointing 8th place finish was attributable to the team's lack of quality depth and the time required for players to adjust to one another. In that case, I see the argument for going all in this summer financially on free agents.

I just don't see our core group of players as the core of a championship contender. So I'd spend the full MLE to get the best rotation player available to improve our 3-point shooting or rim protection and give our two rookies every chance to help the team. Then let's see what we've got. If we end up contending this season, then we should poney up the money to retain Butler next summer and move forward. If not, then we'll have to let Butler go and hope Teague decides to leave as well. Then we can retool around KAT, Wiggins, Patton, Tyus and our two recent draft picks. Part of the retooling might be trading Wiggins, but that's more of a rebuild.

In any event, I see two paths this summer -- one is the Cam/Monster path that goes all in financially with our current core; the other is the Kahns/LST path that goes only partway until the current core group shows that they're more than one final home win better than the best lottery team. I choose the Khans/LST path. I took the red pill. :)

Lip This was a worthwhile breakdown.

I'll point out that the different between Cam and I being "all in" and you not being all in is 1 player/contract. For Cam it's just Ed Davis with the bi-annual exception. Grant and Harris are both using the full mid level. For me it's Belly and possibly using the full mid level or enough we may got over the tax. So it's not like we are that far away.

The idea of going "all in" (Cam's supposed "all in" is maybe the most conservative he has ever put forth on this forum!) is that you take that next step so players might consider you a player away somewhat like Houston with CP3. It's also worth noting that while the Wolves were 1 win away from being a lottery team they were 2 from being a 3 seed. Imagine if the Wolves had a couple better bench players and won 4 more games last season. If they won a playoff series and take GS or Houston to 6 games...that's a different look right? Just sayin.

If we can get the right wing with the mid-level (let's go say we go with Joe Harris for 6 million) and that means we have to say goodbye to Belly and stay under the tax and we have to go with a Dante Cunningham type or even a flyer on a somewhat experienced guy like Tyler Cavanaugh sure let's do it I'd be ok with that.

One thing that makes it tricky to hope to get Belly back while being under the cap is that it seems highly unlikely that he is gonna be a top priority for any team so we likely won't know what his cost is to work around. Let's say the Wolves decide to go after Joe Harris right away with an offer (before a lot of things shake out with Lebron etc it could take Belly out of the picture from the junpnif the goal is to stay under the cap. I think it's difficult to know what you should do in FA if you want to be conservatively aggressive this year. You never know where Lebron or Leonard etc could go and suddenly players could be available and deals could be made. Jon K said that's why there the draft had few moves when it came to players. A lot of teams are waiting things out. Despite my supposed "all in" aggressive seeming stance :) i'd Probably be the GM waiting forever to make a move even tonsigjnsomeone unless some player jumped at some low offer that seems somewhat unrealistic to me now.

The reality is we don't know what Glen and his owners are actually willing to do as far as the Lux tax going forward. He has put a lot of resources into this franchise the last couple years. Staying out of the luxury tax is a wise business decision but at some point he is probably gonna have to go all in on this team and pay it. Only time will tell what he is willing to do but a player also has to be willing to take the deal the Wolves would offer. Thibs and Layden have shown both aggressiveness and patience with mixed reviews. Their patience has probably been their better move except holding out to get Bazz which failed spectacularly.

Im just looking at roster spots availability.

Roster:
Teague
Tyus
Brooks (FA)
Rose (FA)
Crawford (FA)
Butler
Wiggins
MGH (FA)
Taj
Belly (FA)
Patton
KAT
Aldrich
Gorgui
Open Roster Spot

So we currently have 4 open spots when adding the 2 rookies and a very good shot at 5 open spots when adding Aldrich.

So what do we do with the 5 open spots. I would bring back Rose if he could be had at the min. So now 4 spots. I would sign Amilee because of the depth and what he proved during the G League. So 3 open spots. If we can bring Belly back for cheap I would love to have him back but if not I would look to at Tolliver for cheap. So 2 open spots, for the MLE. Will be very interesting on where they will spend the money.

So if we waive Aldrich, we will be about $9 million below the luxury tax threshold with 10 players under contract:

1. Teague
2. Wiggins
3. Butler
4. Taj
5. KAT
6. Tyus
7. Gorgui
8. Patton
9. Okogie
10. Diop

That means we have 4 spots to fill. (I'm assuming we won't fill the 15th spot since we didn't last season). Assume we fill 2 of those 4 at only $1 million per player. That would leave us only around $7 million under the luxury tax -- less than the full MLE and possibly not enough to re-sign Belly. We obviously can't do both. So something's gotta give. There has to be a pretty significant salary-dumping move in the offing. I listened again to the Thibs/Layden post-draft press conference. They went out of their way to mention the possibility of trades.

I think the Wolves will end up trading Wiggins, Teague or both before next season. I don't think it will be Dieng because I can't see a rebuilding team under the cap willing to absorb his salary without getting a significant sweetener like a future 1st round pick or one of our two picks from this year. I get the sense Thibodeau doesn't want to trade Okogie or Diop. So stay tuned. Something pretty big is probably going to happen this summer.

Would Orlando be willing to trade Fournier and Mo Bamba for Wiggins and a future Wolves 2nd rounder? Probably not. But they might do it if we included our 2020 lottery-protected 1st. Not sure I'd do that deal though.

How about Teague and Wiggins to the Sixers for Covington and Fultz?

How about Wiggins to Atlanta for Bazemore and the Mavs' 1st round pick the Hawks received in a prior deal? It's protected 1-5 next season and 1-3 after that before eventually becoming unprotected. Atlanta has their own lottery pick next summer along with the Cavs pick, so the Mavs' pick might be something they'd be willing to part with. This deal would save the Wolves about $10 million in cap space and replace Wiggins with a very solid veteran SF in his prime. I'd do the deal if I were in Thibs' shoes, but not sure Atlanta would do it.

I'll add that the entire League obviously knows what we know about the Wolves salary situation. They all know Minnesota, like any team, would like to avoid the luxury tax but yet still has needs to fill. So the Wolves won't have much leverage in attempting to negotiate salary saving deals with other teams.

Just to be clear, I would do the Wiggins deal with Atlanta that I suggested in my prior post. But otherwise, I'd be reluctant to trade Wiggins. This could be his breakout year and I like the way he played in the playoffs. I've gone on record saying we should trade Butler and I would have traded him to the Grizzlies as a draft-day deal for Mo Bamba. But that didn't happen and I'm not interested in Jaren Jackson. And bottom line is that Thibodeau simply isn't going to trade Butler.

If it were up to me, I'd waive Aldrich and then sign our two draft picks, Egor K, Amile Jefferson and Anthony Brown. For our 14 and final roster spot I'd either re-sign Belly or let him go and sign Joe Harris with the MLE. If unable to sign either one without exceeding the luxury tax threshold, then I'd find the best shooter or rim protector available who will accept less and keep us out of the luxury tax zone.

Cole is still under contract? Wtf? Why didn't we do a salary trade and dump last year? Oh right because he was making 8 mil and not playing.

BizarroJerry wrote:Cole is still under contract? Wtf? Why didn't we do a salary trade and dump last year? Oh right because he was making 8 mil and not playing.

His contract still can be traded by June 30th. Or we could cut him and save 5 mil.

kekgeek1 wrote:

BizarroJerry wrote:Cole is still under contract? Wtf? Why didn't we do a salary trade and dump last year? Oh right because he was making 8 mil and not playing.

His contract still can be traded by June 30th. Or we could cut him and save 5 mil.

Thanks Geek.

kekgeek1 wrote:

BizarroJerry wrote:Cole is still under contract? Wtf? Why didn't we do a salary trade and dump last year? Oh right because he was making 8 mil and not playing.

His contract still can be traded by June 30th. Or we could cut him and save 5 mil.

I have to imagine there would be many teams willing to give fairly good (but overpaid) guys for this cap relief. Cap relief is crucial for many teams heading into this FA time period. For the Wolves, as stated in many posts above, we are extremely limited in any available moves.....thus I have always felt like Cole's contract is our best course to getting an upgrade on this roster.

Guys like Aminu (Blazers need to shed some contracts), PJ Tucker (Houston may be looking to shed to chase star), Jonathon Simmons (redundant) seem to be reasonable guys and situations to target. All are players that clearly upgrade our talent level, at same price of Cole's current contract. We are not getting a star, but these types of guys are capable of contributing major minutes to a team desperate for QUALITY depth.

Let the crappy Wiggins trades begin. Yearly event around here. Good thing we never did that Jae Crowder deal.