Minnesota Sports Forum

AbeVigodaLive wrote:

thedoper wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:

I'd like to make a comment only on Wiggins' "poor shot selection". He has notably changed his shot selection this year to increase efficiency. He is making fewer FGAs with career highs in 3PA. This is the greatest proportion of his career being 3pts at almost a third of his shot attempts. If he starts hitting more consistently he will easily reach career highs in eFG and TS just from shot selection. I find more than ever he is playing within the system. Obviously there can be improvements but there has been a noted change in his shot selection this year.

Yes. Shots are down. Three point attempts are up.

But what kind of shots are down? I'd be interested to know if that means fewer long two pointers... or fewer assaults on the rim... because those drives were often the best thing about Wiggins game that set him apart from others and pointed to hope for the future.

Yes, totally agree, Abe. The times I get most excited about Wig is when he uses his extraordinary array of moves to get to the rim. He needs to emphasize those and 3-pointers, and put the mid-range turnaround fadeaway back in the holster.

Lip has gone to more games than I have this year, so I appreciate his "eye test" that Wig's effort has been a little better this year. But I haven't seen that in the 5-6 games I have been to. What I have seen is the same old Wig...occasional bursts of energy drowned out by longer periods of near lethargy. I would love to see half of the effort from Wig that we get from guys like Taj, KAT, Butler and Tyus...he could be really special if he worked like they do.

It's the same old Wig in terms of motor and activity level, at least in terms of how it translates into actual stats, like rebounds, charges taken, assists, etc.... not sure why we think he's suddenly going to change in his 4th season in the league after being fairly anemic going back to his one year at KU. Nothing new here.

As for his shot distribution, here is a table, with the first column being shot distance, second column career % of shots taken from that distance, and the third column being THIS year's shot distribution:

0-3 feet: 30%, 24%
3-10 feet: 16%, 14%
10-16 feet: 14%, 13%
16 to < 3: 24%, 21%
3s: 16%, 28%

Ftr: 39%, 33%

The good news is that he is indeed taking a larger proportion of his shots from beyond the arc. The bad news is his 3-point shot is still mediocre so it hasn't translated to better overall efficiency. The other piece of bad news is he isn't getting to the rim as much. This is reflected in both the proportion of shot attempts going down from 30% to 24% and the fact his free throw rate has gone down from 39% to 33%. On top of all this when he does get to the line, he is only shooting 65%, which is pathetic for a starting NBA wing.

So even the shot distribution changes ends up being a mixed bag. The bottom line is that he is still the same low efficiency, doesn't-do-much-else player he has been in years' past.

And keep in mind he is not being guarded anymore by the opponent's best wing defender, nor does he have to guard the opponents' best wing. Butler is doing ALL the heavy lifting, yet it has not positively affected Wiggins one iota.

Fire up that Wiggins is a disappointment thread again.....This time it's not premature!

Q12543 wrote:It's the same old Wig in terms of motor and activity level, at least in terms of how it translates into actual stats, like rebounds, charges taken, assists, etc.... not sure why we think he's suddenly going to change in his 4th season in the league after being fairly anemic going back to his one year at KU. Nothing new here.

As for his shot distribution, here is a table, with the first column being shot distance, second column career % of shots taken from that distance, and the third column being THIS year's shot distribution:

0-3 feet: 30%, 24%
3-10 feet: 16%, 14%
10-16 feet: 14%, 13%
16 to < 3: 24%, 21%
3s: 16%, 28%

Ftr: 39%, 33%

The good news is that he is indeed taking a larger proportion of his shots from beyond the arc. The bad news is his 3-point shot is still mediocre so it hasn't translated to better overall efficiency. The other piece of bad news is he isn't getting to the rim as much. This is reflected in both the proportion of shot attempts going down from 30% to 24% and the fact his free throw rate has gone down from 39% to 33%. On top of all this when he does get to the line, he is only shooting 65%, which is pathetic for a starting NBA wing.

So even the shot distribution changes ends up being a mixed bag. The bottom line is that he is still the same low efficiency, doesn't-do-much-else player he has been in years' past.

And keep in mind he is not being guarded anymore by the opponent's best wing defender, nor does he have to guard the opponents' best wing. Butler is doing ALL the heavy lifting, yet it has not positively affected Wiggins one iota.

Fire up that Wiggins is a disappointment thread again.....This time it's not premature!

Thanks for that analysis, Q...not very encouraging. I'm not as down on the long 2 as you are (although I understand the argument) because some shooters are so deadly on the wide-open jumper. My issue is with the type of long 2 Wig often forces...turnaround fade aways, contested jumpers, etc. Your analysis tells us exactly what Wig needs to do...get to the basket to use his enormous physical gifts and increase his FT rate, and work on getting more open 3's...and I would add, not avoid the wide-open medium to long 2.

LST, Yeah, I'm not recommending Wiggins goes full Rockets on us and passes up open 2-pointers. If he's in a screen and roll and the big sags way back giving him the wide open 18-footer, then by all means, take it. But those aren't the kinds of shots he's taking. He tends to take one dribble pull-ups or fadeaway turnarounds with a hand right in his face.

longstrangetrip wrote:

Q12543 wrote:It's the same old Wig in terms of motor and activity level, at least in terms of how it translates into actual stats, like rebounds, charges taken, assists, etc.... not sure why we think he's suddenly going to change in his 4th season in the league after being fairly anemic going back to his one year at KU. Nothing new here.

As for his shot distribution, here is a table, with the first column being shot distance, second column career % of shots taken from that distance, and the third column being THIS year's shot distribution:

0-3 feet: 30%, 24%
3-10 feet: 16%, 14%
10-16 feet: 14%, 13%
16 to < 3: 24%, 21%
3s: 16%, 28%

Ftr: 39%, 33%

The good news is that he is indeed taking a larger proportion of his shots from beyond the arc. The bad news is his 3-point shot is still mediocre so it hasn't translated to better overall efficiency. The other piece of bad news is he isn't getting to the rim as much. This is reflected in both the proportion of shot attempts going down from 30% to 24% and the fact his free throw rate has gone down from 39% to 33%. On top of all this when he does get to the line, he is only shooting 65%, which is pathetic for a starting NBA wing.

So even the shot distribution changes ends up being a mixed bag. The bottom line is that he is still the same low efficiency, doesn't-do-much-else player he has been in years' past.

And keep in mind he is not being guarded anymore by the opponent's best wing defender, nor does he have to guard the opponents' best wing. Butler is doing ALL the heavy lifting, yet it has not positively affected Wiggins one iota.

Fire up that Wiggins is a disappointment thread again.....This time it's not premature!

Thanks for that analysis, Q...not very encouraging. I'm not as down on the long 2 as you are (although I understand the argument) because some shooters are so deadly on the wide-open jumper. My issue is with the type of long 2 Wig often forces...turnaround fade aways, contested jumpers, etc. Your analysis tells us exactly what Wig needs to do...get to the basket to use his enormous physical gifts and increase his FT rate, and work on getting more open 3's...and I would add, not avoid the wide-open medium to long 2.

The stats tell us that Wiggins needs to attack the rim more often. But I'm afraid he doesn't because he knows he can't. It's his ballhandling. It's really bad and I think teams are on to him and know they can pretty easily disrupt his dribble drives by swiping at the ball or making him change direction on his dribble. His only good move is his spin move, but with Wiggins it's become fairly predictable. To have a handle as bad as his as an NBA wing relegates him to being primarily a jump shooter. All the more reason he has to take more threes and the good news is that's what he's been doing this season. Of course the bad news is that his three-point percentage has dropped significantly.

I miss Wiggins step back jumpers. That was a legit move to offset his drive and spin move and he rarely does it like he used to. He used to be able to get so much space and get a clean look off and now everything just looks contested.

khans2k5 wrote:I miss Wiggins step back jumpers. That was a legit move to offset his drive and spin move and he rarely does it like he used to. He used to be able to get so much space and get a clean look off and now everything just looks contested.

That's a great point, Khans, and how odd that nobody has mentioned this. When Wig was at Kansas, one of the things that made him the #1 pick was his ability to create space and open jumpers on the step back. And he brought that skill to his rookie season with the Wolves also...it seemed like he could get off a clean jumper whenever he wanted to. Last season he did it less, and this season it is nonexistent (at least in games that I have watched). Do others agree that Wig has abandoned this move, or is it that opponents have found a way to defend it? I don't know...I just know we haven't seen it this year.

longstrangetrip wrote:

khans2k5 wrote:I miss Wiggins step back jumpers. That was a legit move to offset his drive and spin move and he rarely does it like he used to. He used to be able to get so much space and get a clean look off and now everything just looks contested.

That's a great point, Khans, and how odd that nobody has mentioned this. When Wig was at Kansas, one of the things that made him the #1 pick was his ability to create space and open jumpers on the step back. And he brought that skill to his rookie season with the Wolves also...it seemed like he could get off a clean jumper whenever he wanted to. Last season he did it less, and this season it is nonexistent (at least in games that I have watched). Do others agree that Wig has abandoned this move, or is it that opponents have found a way to defend it? I don't know...I just know we haven't seen it this year.

I've seen him do it a couple of times this year, but not as much as in the past. Personally, I think it's a terrible shot that just fits in the "high degree of difficulty long 2" category. Yes, it's a nice shot to have in your arsenal with the shot clock running down and no where else to go. But it should only be used in "break glass in case of emergency" situations.

If he displayed the same shooting touch as Kevin Durant, I'd probably have a different opinion, but it is extremely difficult to get any jump shot that isn't a catch and shoot open one up above an eFG% of 40%, this one included.

Q12543 wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:

khans2k5 wrote:I miss Wiggins step back jumpers. That was a legit move to offset his drive and spin move and he rarely does it like he used to. He used to be able to get so much space and get a clean look off and now everything just looks contested.

That's a great point, Khans, and how odd that nobody has mentioned this. When Wig was at Kansas, one of the things that made him the #1 pick was his ability to create space and open jumpers on the step back. And he brought that skill to his rookie season with the Wolves also...it seemed like he could get off a clean jumper whenever he wanted to. Last season he did it less, and this season it is nonexistent (at least in games that I have watched). Do others agree that Wig has abandoned this move, or is it that opponents have found a way to defend it? I don't know...I just know we haven't seen it this year.

I've seen him do it a couple of times this year, but not as much as in the past. Personally, I think it's a terrible shot that just fits in the "high degree of difficulty long 2" category. Yes, it's a nice shot to have in your arsenal with the shot clock running down and no where else to go. But it should only be used in "break glass in case of emergency" situations.

If he displayed the same shooting touch as Kevin Durant, I'd probably have a different opinion, but it is extremely difficult to get any jump shot that isn't a catch and shoot open one up above an eFG% of 40%, this one included.

I think there are a couple things at work here.

1. Wiggins is spotting up for more 3's.

2. I've seen more of Wiggins this year get in the post and knock guys back and get deeper than I have seen in the past. Not all the time certainly but more. It seems he is at least trying to impose his will physically with his strength a bit more.

Looking at the basic numbers on BB reference he is shooting a crazy high number 76% at the rim. He is shooting well at the 3-10 feet distance and then anything outside of that to the 3 point line is well below his career average for those midrange and dreaded long 2's. So if you think he is missing a lot of those shots the answer is yes!!!! So I think Wiggins has been in a few less positions to utilize that step back but I agree it's something that might be more useful when it comes to some of the shots he has taken from those distances. I think we would all like to see him get to the rim more and he should but I think Jim Peterson has pointed out a few times teams do tend to load up on him. I think Wiggins passing has looked a tick better this year and some of the cross court passes to teammates when he makes a drive are lasers and right on target. Before some would be the right pass and might have been even on target but they would take a bit to get there.

One thing I wonder about his finishing at the rim it SEEMS like he has been a more active cutter this year. Maybe having Butler as another playmaker on the floor makes it seem that way but I'm curious what other people think.

Monster, You are pretty good at trying to find silver linings in things. I'm kinda done parsing through the Wiggins micro-stats and eye test stuff looking for some glimmer of hope when all the big stats (e.g. PER, WS/48, TS%, etc.) mostly show a player that is average at best. Once he moves the needle in a meaningful way in those numbers, I'll be the first to jump on his band wagon.