Minnesota Sports Forum

53 wins for me.

History has taught us to always downgrade what we actually expect. Except for Tim. History is no match for opTIMism.

I'm gonna go with 46 wins.

A couple months ago on one of the Dunc'd On podcast it was brought up how the idea that playing in the Western Conference means a much tougher road for a team from that conference. The idea that was put forth was someone did some analysis and said that might only mean an overall difference of about 2 wins. Part of that point was that teams play every team twice and that leaves 22 games against your conference above what you would play against teams from the other conference. Anyway it was an interesting point I wish I remember who it was that did the analysis. I thought it was at least something to ponder.

monsterpile wrote:A couple months ago on one of the Dunc'd On podcast it was brought up how the idea that playing in the Western Conference means a much tougher road for a team from that conference. The idea that was put forth was someone did some analysis and said that might only mean an overall difference of about 2 wins. Part of that point was that teams play every team twice and that leaves 22 games against your conference above what you would play against teams from the other conference. Anyway it was an interesting point I wish I remember who it was that did the analysis. I thought it was at least something to ponder.

I heard that too, and I'm a little bit surprised and skeptical.

It seems obvious that about two more games each against the Warriors, Spurs, Rockets, Thunder, Nuggs, Blazers, Jazz, Clippers, and the Pelicans as opposed to the weak top of the East (after Cleveland and Boston, those teams are all pretty seriously flawed) would likely lead to more than a 2 game difference, right?

Unfortunately, I left a written record of my 47-win prediction last year. So I can't lie and get away with it. But I still think the team grossly underachieved last season under Thibs. Do I still think we were a 47-win team? No. But I have no doubt we had the personnel to win far more than 31. I honestly think we should have won 40-42 games last season with the players we had. Thibs just didn't connect with the players the way a head coach must to be successful.

So where does all that take me in predicting the upcoming season? I'm going out on a limb again predicting 51 wins. I start from the premise that we had the talent to win 40-42 games last season if our head coach would have connected with our players. With that as the starting point, I see 50-52 wins this season based on the following factors:

First, there is no quesiton in my mind, we have a better top 3 in Butler, Towns and Wiggins than we had in Zach, Towns and Wiggins. I loved Zach, but Butler is clearly a substantial upgrade over Zach -- better all-around offensively and dramatically better defensively. Moreover, based on their youth alone, Towns and Wiggins are bound to be significantly better. You generally go as far as your elite players take you in the NBA. I believe we have two elite players in Towns and Butler with Wiggins potentially elite but at worst just a notch below elite. I see our stop 3 as being as good as any in the West except the Warriors and Thunder.

Second, the team's rotation is substantially better 4 through 8. I see the Ricky for Teague swap as essentially a wash. But beyond that, I anticipate a lot of improvement the supporting rotation cast for our top 3. Gorgui's development is still on an upward trajectory and I expect him to be even better next season after a very solid previous season. We've substantially upgraded our front court defense with the addition of Taj Gibson. Turning 25 with a major chip on his shoulder after settling for a vet minimum contract, I expect the talented, leaner, hard-working Shabazz to have a break-out season. He's already turned himself into a decent defender and that will likely improve even more. I see his offense being more consistent as he also ramps up his his 3-point shooting. Crawford gives us a proven, bona fide offensive sparkplug off the bench that we didn't have last season. The underrated Tyus Jones at age 22 will likely be better.

Third, in Butler and Taj the Wolves have added not only two highly respected talented vets, but two players who know and like Thibs. I see these two guys as the missing links we need to connect Thibs to Wiggins, Towns and the other guys from last year. Since I think the disconnect between players and head coach was the main reason we won 31 instead of 41 games last season, I see this factor as a big one.

So it's 51 wins guys. Take it to the bank. :)

Fwiw point differential I believe says last year's team was more of a 38 win team.

60WinTim wrote:

Phenom's_Revenge wrote:Hurry up Tim

LOL!!

I was tempted to go with Taj's jersey number -- he must have chosen it for some reason, right?!?

But with the West looking so tough, I figure I should bring it down to my namesake. Even then, considering I have BLOWN it by a mile EVERY year, I was going to to cut it down to 55.

But since apollo already took that number, I guess I will go with 56.

Top that, phenom! ;-)

57 it is. I like the sound of that actually.

A few more weighed in, with Lip providing a fairly compelling story behind his prediction.

Big O - 38
Abe - 41
Q - 43
Logo - 44
Monster, tpoff217 - 45
Kekgeek1, Shumway- 46
Khans - 47
Cool, Rocket - 48
ItsJustSoSab - 49
SP - 50
Hoops! - 51
Drew, Doper - 52
Worldk - 53
Bloop - 54
apollotsg - 55
Tim - 56
Phenom - 57 (I fully expect Tim to revise his up to 58 because of you!)

monsterpile wrote:Fwiw point differential I believe says last year's team was more of a 38 win team.

It should be noted that the last time our actual win total exceeded our expected win total was 2008-2009.

Hey friends. It's been an interesting off-season to say th least. I've been lurking, reading all your thoughtful analysis. I think having Butler and a couple more playoff vets will get us to 48 wins and the 5th seed. Man I hope wiggy can turn on the hustle this year.