The Official 2015-2016 Wins Prediction Thread

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Despite the good defense and solid play of our rookies tonight, Rubio's quad injury and Wiggins' invisible man act has me feeling a little pessimistic. Plus it looks like Sam is really going development over wins with three 20-year-olds in the starting lineup. So, I'm jumping off the playoff bandwagon for a bit here, and going with 36 wins (still an enormous improvement over last season).

I reserve the right to tee up an updated prediction thread later this month after we learn a lot more about this team.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Who is having those big breakout seasons in Utah or Phoenix? Who are the players there that are going to carry those teams?

I understand the GS, SA, LAC, OKC, Mem, teams being placed well above the teams, but most of these other teams have no more talent than the wolves (right now).

The wolves would be hard pressed to sustain the same amount of injuries to key players again, not to mention not being likely to trade away players at the deadline, and won't be tanking to end the season. 30 wins is what I expect without Ricky this season.

25 wins is unrealistic unless you plan on this team tanking to end the year.

Utah may have the best defensive center in the league. They already have an all-star caliber wing in Heyward and Favors may make the jump to all-star this year as well. Phoenix has 1 all-star in Bledsoe, added Chandler to help with the defense and Knight showed he was a borderline all-star for the Bucks (18/5/4 43/40/88). We have no all-stars. Who's carrying us? Ricky doesn't score enough to carry us. Wiggins and Lavine put up good stats when they were the only options, but we now have a fully healthy squad so they won't get 40 MPG's and a majority of the shots. Their quality young guys are all 3+ years in the league and most of ours are under 2 years.

I like Gobert but he has zero offensive moves other than an alley oop. He is a younger DJ, which doesn't do much for you until you have Chris Paul. Trey Burkes certainly isn't going to make him relevant on that end. Favors is a solid PF, nothing more nothing less. Heyward will likely be passed by Wiggins this season if he hasn't been already.

Not sure when Bledsoe become an allstar. Chandler is way past his prime, and Brandon Knight isn't an upgrade from Ricky. Ricky can carry us because he makes the other guys better around him. Don't really care how many years guys have been in the league, but rather how well they are performing.

The wolves have just as much talent as either of those teams.

Wiggins being better than Hayward already is a laughably homer take. 19/5/4 45/36/81 and a 20+ PER versus 17/5/2 44/31/76 and a 14 PER while Wiggins averaged 2 more MPG's. Bledsoe averaged 17/6/5 as a PG and is a very good defender because he's one of the best athletes in the league. You're also going off of projections and not actual production which goes against your "how well they are performing" line. Why are our guys the only ones allowed to get better in this scenario? Hayward, Favors and Gobert haven't even hit their primes yet. Same goes for Bledsoe and Knight. We have talent, but it is not as close to being consistently productive at a high level as guys like you think. Wiggins showed nothing in the FIBA tournament to make me believe he is going to make a significant leap this year. If everyone is fully healthy they'll both be better than us. Book it.

You can't be so foolish that you would take a rookie's full season stats as the player he was at the end of the year. Wiggins averaged over 23 pts, 6 rebs and 4 asts over his last month. While that is a small sample size it is just as realistic as taking his full season as a representation of where he is as a player (and plays right into my "how well they are performing" line).

Zach's last month was 21 pts, 6 rebs, and 6 assts.

Most people understand that a rookie season is usually the biggest struggle for players, but I guess that hasn't hit home with you yet.

Anthony Bennett showed plenty in the international games this summer, and we bought him out. Apparently teams don't put a great deal of stock in that play, but if you do, I am guessing you have Dieng pegged for MVP this season because he tore it up.

BOOK IT! :o

Then you say I am going off projections responding to you predicting that Favors could be an allstar!

1 month playing 40 MPG's is not who Wiggins or Lavine are as players. That's what they were forced to be, but they're not going to see that kind of playing time over an 82 game season ever again. You said Wiggins may have passed Hayward already and since Wiggins has only played 1 year that's exactly the data to use to compare the two. Not a less than 10 game sample size in garbage time. If you don't think his rookie season was better than Hayward's season then don't say he might already be better because there is literally zero evidence to back that up. You use 1 month with extremely high minutes and only 2 options on the team to say that's who Wiggins and Lavine are likely to be and it's just not. Their playing time is going way down this year and they're only 2nd year guys so their efficiency improvement just isn't going to make up for probably an 8 MPG drop with a better supporting cast that will take away touches.

The guys I argued for are all better than our guys now and have the potential to get better. You are arguing for guys who played well for 1-2 months, will get less minutes and have less usage this year and that they are likely better already than the guys who have done it on the court for full seasons. Your whole argument is based on projections while mine has a significantly better sample size of existing on court production with the potential to get better. I fully get rookie years being difficult. That's why I don't make dumb arguments like saying they are already likely better players than established, quality players still yet to enter their primes. Talent doesn't automatically mean better which is why I think it's dumb to say we'll be better than two teams who have shown way more on-court production than we have and have a decent chance to get better.

[Mstermisty [enjin:6864008]]

I think they will struggle early mainly due to guys trying to figure out their roles on the team. I see Towns starting but probably having a rough go of it for a while, especially on the glass.

That said I think at some point this year the team will start clicking and end up with 35 wins. Rubio has to stay healthy though. Miller is older than dirt, Tyus is raw, and the other option is Lavine, which we saw last year isn't a good idea. It seems like every year point guard is our weakest position--this year looks no different.

[MikkeMan]

This is tricky one. I too tend to be optimistic with my predictions regarding Wolves win total but I think it is mainly due injuries that team has suffered in last couple of seasons. If I assume that Rubio will play close to 80 games but Pek plays less than half of the games and KMart about 60 games, I think they might win around 35 games. That will be better than Phoenix, Denver, Portland, Lakers and possibly Sacramento's record but still not enough to get playoffs.

Rubio and Pek together make Wolves much better team. Even last year they were +5.4 pts per 100 possessions when both Pek and Ricky were on the floor together. Without Pek even Rubio had bad net rating (-12.1 pts per 100 possessions). Numbers from previous years are quite similar (2013-14 Ricky was +9.7 with Pek and +3.5 without him) even though difference has not then been as significant.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I think they will struggle early mainly due to guys trying to figure out their roles on the team. I see Towns starting but probably having a rough go of it for a while, especially on the glass.

That said I think at some point this year the team will start clicking and end up with 35 wins. Rubio has to stay healthy though. Miller is older than dirt, Tyus is raw, and the other option is Lavine, which we saw last year isn't a good idea. It seems like every year point guard is our weakest position--this year looks no different.

Misty, I think we will be fine at PG if Ricky stays reasonably healthy. Miller mailed it in last night, but I was encouraged to see him out on the court an hour before the scrimmage working on his game. He is a pro. His personal workout is focused entirely on shots he is likely to take in a game, and he never takes a practice shot without making one of his "old man" moves first...and 90% of the shots went in! Really fun to watch. He won't help us much defensively, but I think he will be the best backup PG we have had,

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Update:

Q - 26
Volans - 27
Kiwi - 28
Cool - 31
Khans - 32
Mstermisty - 35
Mikkeman - 35
LST - 36
Lloyd - 38
Big O - 38
SJM - 41
Doper - 44
Tim - 48

[Monster]

Update:

Q - 26
Volans - 27
Kiwi - 28
Cool - 31
Khans - 32
Mstermisty - 35
Mikkeman - 35
LST - 36
Lloyd - 38
Big O - 38
SJM - 41
Doper - 44
Tim - 48

I don't like making these predictions there are just too many variables but since it's all laid out so nicely in the above post I will go with 33 wins but I feel that's being optimistic based on the knowledge I am working with right now.

[maelstrom11 [enjin:6599701]]

I'm going with 46 wins......

Here's why

1. Wiggins will play like he did during the 2nd half for a full season.
2. Ricky plays and is healthy all year with an improved shot. (40%)
3. Martin plays 75 games.
4. Pek plays 55 games.
5. We have a bench of Dieng/Towns, Shabazz, Miller, KG, and Martin. Much improved over last year.
6. Youth and depth.....we will beat teams on their back to backs purely due to out hustling them.
7. We are overall much more athletic and equipped at each position than last year.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Update:

Q - 26
Volans - 27
Kiwi - 28
Cool - 31
Khans - 32
Monster - 33
Mstermisty - 35
Mikkeman - 35
LST - 36
Lloyd - 38
Big O - 38
SJM - 41
Doper - 44
Maelstrom11 - 46
Tim - 48

[kekgeek]

I will go 27 and I want to do lower than Q. 10 win improvement is huge no matter the circumstances, also I think the wolves are in the same place as last year is ricky is hurt wolves lose a lot of games.