Playing time had nothing to do with LaVine's abilites. I already said LaVine was behind Anderson and Adams (two other first rounders) for minutes, but he still played the fourth most minutes on last year's UCLA team. I heard LaVine talk about his role on the team being a spark off the bench in the sense of JR Smith or Jamal Crawford, and I can see that being the case. LaVine played 20+ minutes in 31 of 36 games last season. So while he may have not been a starter, he had a clear role on a team that went to the Sweet Sixteen. Did he have his struggles throughout the season? Sure, but the guy was a freshman. They don't all dominate like Julius Randle and some others.
Keep in mind that he didn't have the ball in his hands enough either. In most of the UCLA games (except Oregon) I saw, LaVine was used exclusively off-ball. While he's capable of off-ball contributions, LaVine's predominantly been a point guard for most of his life. There's going to be times where he needs the ball to create. It'll be ugly at times, but it's the Russell Westbrook effect, essentially. Lucky for us, we have Ricky Rubio so we won't have an offense as ugly as OKC's has been.
I really like that Flip took a guy that has star potential, especially considering our circumstances. How do we, the Minnesota Timberwolves, get star players? We have to draft them. Plain and simple. I'm behind this decision 100% even if it does blow up.
Draft Grades
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BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]
- Posts: 3290
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Re: Draft Grades
A
I originally wanted Harris too like some others here, but I didn't know Lavine was 6'6", and I was hoping for a more athletic, better shooting Shved type, so I think Lavine fits that mold. Bilas had him in his Top 10, so it wasn't exactly a gamble or a reach here.
I also thought Robinson would have gone in the 1st, lots of Michigan players drafted early, so I think that's a good sign. He's another great athlete who can get to the tin.
Cash for clunkers? I'm indifferent. Most of those guys don't make the team anyway. Overall, I like that we drafted a couple good athletes/scorers to compliment Rubio's up tempo game.
I originally wanted Harris too like some others here, but I didn't know Lavine was 6'6", and I was hoping for a more athletic, better shooting Shved type, so I think Lavine fits that mold. Bilas had him in his Top 10, so it wasn't exactly a gamble or a reach here.
I also thought Robinson would have gone in the 1st, lots of Michigan players drafted early, so I think that's a good sign. He's another great athlete who can get to the tin.
Cash for clunkers? I'm indifferent. Most of those guys don't make the team anyway. Overall, I like that we drafted a couple good athletes/scorers to compliment Rubio's up tempo game.
Re: Draft Grades
Does anyone have a link to the audio from LaVine calling in to say how ecstatic he was?
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alexftbl8181 [enjin:6648741]
- Posts: 1957
- Joined: Sat Jul 13, 2013 12:00 am
Re: Draft Grades
Well the key here is if you think the coaching staff can actually develop this guy. i can't think of anybody the wolves have ever drafted this raw and have been able to develop into something. Adlemans staff was pretty good with bigs, Rubios been what we all pretty much expected.
I guess you should feel fine if you trust good ole Sidney Lowe being good with guards as some people say!
I guess you should feel fine if you trust good ole Sidney Lowe being good with guards as some people say!
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BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]
- Posts: 3290
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Re: Draft Grades
So Wilbieken didn't get drafted. Interesting...I hope Flip signs him as a backup PG.
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longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]
- Posts: 9432
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Re: Draft Grades
So, Flip has rolled the dice, and only time will tell if Zach LaVine is Russell Westbrook, or if he is Rodney Williams. Advocates of Flip's 2014 draft will go to Westbrook comp, but skeptics will go to Williams. Let's look at both comps, plus one other former Wolve pick that I will develop.
Westbrook: It seems to me that many on this board use the Westbrook story line to support the pick (I thought I was supposed to be the Flip apologist on this board...quit stealing my role! :) ). I assume the basis of this logic is that they were both athletic UCLA guards who struggled for minutes freshman year and didn't put up good numbers. But here's where the comparison takes a serious detour. Despite his extraordinary athletic gifts, Westbrook didn't believe he was ready for the 2007 draft and elected to go back for his sophomore year. Good choice. He lit it up his sophomore year and ended up the 4th pick in the 2008 draft. Now, Flip is asking us to take a leap of faith, and assume that Zach will display the same progression curve that Russell showed. It could happen. But it's not the path that GMs typically go down when they select a player in the lottery...in fact as I have pointed out, it is unprecedented in the NBA, as there has never been a freshman non-center selected in the lottery with numbers as poor as Zach's.
Williams: If you guys go back and check the first nbadraft.net mock draft of Rodney Williams freshman year, you will see him in the #7 spot. As a Gopher fan, I was excited. He was going to clearly be a one-and-done, but what a year it was going to be! I had seen his workout videos with his sensational highlight reel dunks, and watched him drain long jump shot after jump shot...without a hand in his face. And then I watched him in a game, and everything changed. Yes, he would bring the crowd to its feet once a game with a jaw-dropping dunk, but he appeared to get lost in the flow of the offense, and the jump shots that rippled through the nets in practice were now clanging off the rim. When I watched Zach LaVine in my one game at Pauley last year (and several on TV), I saw Rodney Williams. He looked sensational in the pre-game warmups, but totally overmatched when he eventually got off Steve Alford's bench. I concluded that there was some raw ability there, but that he clearly needed another year or two in college.
So now Flip is asking us to drink the kool aid that he can develop Zach LaVine in the same way Russell Westbrook developed in his sophomore year. Maybe he can, and as a Wolves fan, I will be hoping that he can. But I still see it as the biggest roll of the dice for the Wolves in the draft since Ndudi Ebi, which is perhaps a better comparison than either Williams or Westbrook. Ebi was also a sensational athlete with a sweet shooting stroke. And like Zach Lavine, he put up sensational numbers in high school, but never had the chance to show the world what he could do in college. After we drafted him, I talked about him with a friend who coached the De La Salle defense that year (De La Salle had played against Ebi's team that year), and he told me that Ebi was by far the best 2-way high school player he had ever seen, Unfortunately, the first time we saw Ebi playing against men rather than boys, we all realized he was not going to cut it in the NBA. What are we going to see when we first see LaVine playing against men?
The posters who are calling this a potential home run pick are correct, but let's be honest here. There is at least an equal chance of LaVine turning out to be exactly the same guy (or worse) that we saw in the NCAA tournament than an NBA star. Flip has taken an enormous gamble with this lottery pick, and only time will tell whether we will be talking about Flip's brilliance in a couple years, or whether Zach LaVine has become an Ebi-like punch line. As a long-suffering fan, I'll be hoping for the Flip brilliance outcome.
Westbrook: It seems to me that many on this board use the Westbrook story line to support the pick (I thought I was supposed to be the Flip apologist on this board...quit stealing my role! :) ). I assume the basis of this logic is that they were both athletic UCLA guards who struggled for minutes freshman year and didn't put up good numbers. But here's where the comparison takes a serious detour. Despite his extraordinary athletic gifts, Westbrook didn't believe he was ready for the 2007 draft and elected to go back for his sophomore year. Good choice. He lit it up his sophomore year and ended up the 4th pick in the 2008 draft. Now, Flip is asking us to take a leap of faith, and assume that Zach will display the same progression curve that Russell showed. It could happen. But it's not the path that GMs typically go down when they select a player in the lottery...in fact as I have pointed out, it is unprecedented in the NBA, as there has never been a freshman non-center selected in the lottery with numbers as poor as Zach's.
Williams: If you guys go back and check the first nbadraft.net mock draft of Rodney Williams freshman year, you will see him in the #7 spot. As a Gopher fan, I was excited. He was going to clearly be a one-and-done, but what a year it was going to be! I had seen his workout videos with his sensational highlight reel dunks, and watched him drain long jump shot after jump shot...without a hand in his face. And then I watched him in a game, and everything changed. Yes, he would bring the crowd to its feet once a game with a jaw-dropping dunk, but he appeared to get lost in the flow of the offense, and the jump shots that rippled through the nets in practice were now clanging off the rim. When I watched Zach LaVine in my one game at Pauley last year (and several on TV), I saw Rodney Williams. He looked sensational in the pre-game warmups, but totally overmatched when he eventually got off Steve Alford's bench. I concluded that there was some raw ability there, but that he clearly needed another year or two in college.
So now Flip is asking us to drink the kool aid that he can develop Zach LaVine in the same way Russell Westbrook developed in his sophomore year. Maybe he can, and as a Wolves fan, I will be hoping that he can. But I still see it as the biggest roll of the dice for the Wolves in the draft since Ndudi Ebi, which is perhaps a better comparison than either Williams or Westbrook. Ebi was also a sensational athlete with a sweet shooting stroke. And like Zach Lavine, he put up sensational numbers in high school, but never had the chance to show the world what he could do in college. After we drafted him, I talked about him with a friend who coached the De La Salle defense that year (De La Salle had played against Ebi's team that year), and he told me that Ebi was by far the best 2-way high school player he had ever seen, Unfortunately, the first time we saw Ebi playing against men rather than boys, we all realized he was not going to cut it in the NBA. What are we going to see when we first see LaVine playing against men?
The posters who are calling this a potential home run pick are correct, but let's be honest here. There is at least an equal chance of LaVine turning out to be exactly the same guy (or worse) that we saw in the NCAA tournament than an NBA star. Flip has taken an enormous gamble with this lottery pick, and only time will tell whether we will be talking about Flip's brilliance in a couple years, or whether Zach LaVine has become an Ebi-like punch line. As a long-suffering fan, I'll be hoping for the Flip brilliance outcome.
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WildWolf2813
- Posts: 3466
- Joined: Mon Jul 15, 2013 12:00 am
Re: Draft Grades
I was at the draft. I booed the LaVine pick.
I give Flip an F for this draft. He drafted a guy because he jumps high. If this were David Kahn we'd be ripping him for this.
The Glenn Robinson III pick at 40 isn't bad though if he plays the way he did in college (by that I mean disappear in every big game) he'll be useless as well.
I give Flip an F for this draft. He drafted a guy because he jumps high. If this were David Kahn we'd be ripping him for this.
The Glenn Robinson III pick at 40 isn't bad though if he plays the way he did in college (by that I mean disappear in every big game) he'll be useless as well.
Re: Draft Grades
I agree with Monster. Robinson isn't going anywhere unless he's traded and I don't see that happening.
The Wolves don't have any starting quality SFs on the roster. Brewer and Budinger have been in the League long enough for us to know that neither will ever be a starting SF on a playoff team in the West. Brewer is a nice spark plug off the bench, but that's all. I'm not sure Budinger has much value in any role given his knee problems and even before the knee injuries he was never starting material. Hummel is a borderline NBA player who won't be retained. So right now we have two potential starters at the SF position -- Shabazz and Robinson. Yet I doubt either is ready to be a starter on a playoff caliber team next season.
I suspect that Budinger will be traded this summer. Recall that Flip almost traded him last February. Hummel will be released. Brewer might be traded and a veteran SF signed using the MLE.
The Wolves don't have any starting quality SFs on the roster. Brewer and Budinger have been in the League long enough for us to know that neither will ever be a starting SF on a playoff team in the West. Brewer is a nice spark plug off the bench, but that's all. I'm not sure Budinger has much value in any role given his knee problems and even before the knee injuries he was never starting material. Hummel is a borderline NBA player who won't be retained. So right now we have two potential starters at the SF position -- Shabazz and Robinson. Yet I doubt either is ready to be a starter on a playoff caliber team next season.
I suspect that Budinger will be traded this summer. Recall that Flip almost traded him last February. Hummel will be released. Brewer might be traded and a veteran SF signed using the MLE.
Re: Draft Grades
LST your last post was honestly terrific. I'll add a couple positive notes for Levine in response to it. Its only his frshman year but Zach shot well from 3 and that's supposed to be something the experts liked as well. Neither westbrook or Williams had that going for them and Westbrook still doesn't. Also I think comparing Ebi to Lavine is a little unfair he was a late round projected guy at best and the Lavine pick has been praised by all the experts I have seen.
LST I think you and I are feeling pretty similar about the pick in general but I think there is enough evidence that LaVine isn't just a total raw unknown kid. A few. Days ago I was about to write him off then I looked again at his shooting % as a freshman and thought: Hey that's not too bad. Like you I don't really see those PG skills. If he dies actually have that potential then heck yeah he is a good pick there just isn't much tape of him doing that at UCLA easily found on Youtube. He has some legit handle he isn't as bad as most of the wings this team has had the past 5-8 years. Many of those guys could barely dribble their way out of a paper bag. Let's compare LaVine to Rodney Carney who was a ridiculous athlete both speed and leaping ability. He was had a little more length than LaVine but if it wasn't a straightline dribble he couldn't do anything. Carney with even average ball handling skills for a SG would have been a much more interesting player. Of course his shooting wasn't too great either but yeah.
My point is that while I am not sold on Lavine there is enough for me to be conflicted on him. I'll have to trust that he can defend at some point and those ball handling skills are true. I also hope he can finish at the rim too. It would be nice to hit on this pick even if it was 3 years from now.
LST I think you and I are feeling pretty similar about the pick in general but I think there is enough evidence that LaVine isn't just a total raw unknown kid. A few. Days ago I was about to write him off then I looked again at his shooting % as a freshman and thought: Hey that's not too bad. Like you I don't really see those PG skills. If he dies actually have that potential then heck yeah he is a good pick there just isn't much tape of him doing that at UCLA easily found on Youtube. He has some legit handle he isn't as bad as most of the wings this team has had the past 5-8 years. Many of those guys could barely dribble their way out of a paper bag. Let's compare LaVine to Rodney Carney who was a ridiculous athlete both speed and leaping ability. He was had a little more length than LaVine but if it wasn't a straightline dribble he couldn't do anything. Carney with even average ball handling skills for a SG would have been a much more interesting player. Of course his shooting wasn't too great either but yeah.
My point is that while I am not sold on Lavine there is enough for me to be conflicted on him. I'll have to trust that he can defend at some point and those ball handling skills are true. I also hope he can finish at the rim too. It would be nice to hit on this pick even if it was 3 years from now.
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longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]
- Posts: 9432
- Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 12:00 am
Re: Draft Grades
monsterpile wrote:LST your last post was honestly terrific. I'll add a couple positive notes for Levine in response to it. Its only his frshman year but Zach shot well from 3 and that's supposed to be something the experts liked as well. Neither westbrook or Williams had that going for them and Westbrook still doesn't. Also I think comparing Ebi to Lavine is a little unfair he was a late round projected guy at best and the Lavine pick has been praised by all the experts I have seen.
LST I think you and I are feeling pretty similar about the pick in general but I think there is enough evidence that LaVine isn't just a total raw unknown kid. A few. Days ago I was about to write him off then I looked again at his shooting % as a freshman and thought: Hey that's not too bad. Like you I don't really see those PG skills. If he dies actually have that potential then heck yeah he is a good pick there just isn't much tape of him doing that at UCLA easily found on Youtube. He has some legit handle he isn't as bad as most of the wings this team has had the past 5-8 years. Many of those guys could barely dribble their way out of a paper bag. Let's compare LaVine to Rodney Carney who was a ridiculous athlete both speed and leaping ability. He was had a little more length than LaVine but if it wasn't a straightline dribble he couldn't do anything. Carney with even average ball handling skills for a SG would have been a much more interesting player. Of course his shooting wasn't too great either but yeah.
My point is that while I am not sold on Lavine there is enough for me to be conflicted on him. I'll have to trust that he can defend at some point and those ball handling skills are true. I also hope he can finish at the rim too. It would be nice to hit on this pick even if it was 3 years from now.
Superb post, monster...some very good points. There are several guys on this board that I respect a lot who are more positive about this pick than I am, and that is meaningful to me...allowing me to keep an open mind. Also, except for the despicable Bill Simmons, I'm seeing some positive comments about both Wolves' picks in the national media. And my respect for Flip Saunders has me wondering whether he pulled a rabbit out of his hat with this draft like I believe he did last year. I still wish that we had selected a more NBA-ready Gary Harris at 13, but I admit to feeling some excitement about adding two elite athletes to our roster and cannot disagree that there is plenty of potential upside with both of them.