Minnesota Sports Forum

Khans, I didn't forget anything. Kek independently dug up a set of stats on his own. That's not "we", that's just Kek. You then piped in with a convoluted stat that made no sense.

The bottom line is this. Based on your more sane definition of close games (3 points or less); Mikkeman's definition of close games (3 points or less and OT): or Swanny's definition of close games (1 point or less), our win percentage is a better win percentage than our overall record. This despite having the alleged albatross known as Ricky Rubio, who you keep telling us is a major liability in close games.

Nevermind

Q12543 wrote:Khans, I didn't forget anything. Kek independently dug up a set of stats on his own. That's not "we", that's just Kek. You then piped in with a convoluted stat that made no sense.

The bottom line is this. Based on your more sane definition of close games (3 points or less); Mikkeman's definition of close games (3 points or less and OT): or Swanny's definition of close games (1 point or less), our win percentage is a better win percentage than our overall record. This despite having the alleged albatross known as Ricky Rubio, who you keep telling us is a major liability in close games.

Whatever. It's gonna take a playoff series where that will be a problem to shut you up anyway so no point arguing it anymore. Just have to wait until next year and hopefully make the playoffs for you guys to see the real basketball strategy that comes into winning a 7 game series against teams with weaknesses like that.

Q12543 wrote:

khans2k5 wrote:

Q12543 wrote:

Mikkeman wrote:Wolves have this year 9-9 record in close games. That includes all games within 3 point margin plus all overtime games. So their close game record has eventually evened out just like I predicted to happen.

Last year their close game record was 9-8 in close games. So I don't see that they would have had much problems in those after Kevin Love era.

Thanks Mikkeman, good stuff. You were indeed right, although I still contend the close game losses early this season were indeed due more to incompetent defensive breakdowns versus just plain random bad luck.

Looking at the schedule we're 7-9 in games decided by 3 points. Don't know where Mikkeman is seeing the other 2 wins.

....and I have us at 10-11 if you look at games decided by 3 points or less and in OT games. Either way, what is interesting to me (but probably not interesting to you) is that our winning percentage in close games is actually better than our winning percentage on the season....Mmmmm, that doesn't make sense if Rubio is supposedly such a huge liability in close games!

I guess that I missed at least on loss but still my calculations won't match with your numbers.

Wolves have 7 wins with 3 points or less:
Clippers, Denver, Phoenix, Toronto, Golden State, Indiana, Portland
And two overtime wins: Charlotte and Orlando (I consider them as close games regardless of final margin since at least the end of regulation has been as close as it can be.)

Then they have 8 losses with 3 points or less (including one OT loss with 3 point or less margin):
Sacramento, Denver, New York, Houston, Denver, Philly, Utah, Miami
And two overtime losses with bigger than 3 point margin:
San Antonio, Lakers

Which games I have missed in my calculations?

If this 9-10 record is correct, Wolves would have 18-18 record in close games in past two year. So I don't see that Rubio would have negative effect for that. But I think it doesn't mean that he couldn't have negative effect on team's performance in the end of game. I just think it is silly to use close game record for proofing anything since there exist some studies that show that outcome for games that will be decided in final possession is pretty much random.

Personally I think that only teams with real super star like LeBron whom officials are allowing to do whatever is needed for win in final minutes might have higher than 50% expected win percentage in the end of game that is decided in final possession.

Better stat for checking whether Rubio has negative effect for team's performance in the end of close game would be to check for example team record on games that are within 5 points or less margin while there is less than 2 minutes time left.

Mikkeman wrote:

Q12543 wrote:

khans2k5 wrote:

Q12543 wrote:

Mikkeman wrote:Wolves have this year 9-9 record in close games. That includes all games within 3 point margin plus all overtime games. So their close game record has eventually evened out just like I predicted to happen.

Last year their close game record was 9-8 in close games. So I don't see that they would have had much problems in those after Kevin Love era.

Thanks Mikkeman, good stuff. You were indeed right, although I still contend the close game losses early this season were indeed due more to incompetent defensive breakdowns versus just plain random bad luck.

Looking at the schedule we're 7-9 in games decided by 3 points. Don't know where Mikkeman is seeing the other 2 wins.

....and I have us at 10-11 if you look at games decided by 3 points or less and in OT games. Either way, what is interesting to me (but probably not interesting to you) is that our winning percentage in close games is actually better than our winning percentage on the season....Mmmmm, that doesn't make sense if Rubio is supposedly such a huge liability in close games!

I guess that I missed at least on loss but still my calculations won't match with your numbers.

Wolves have 7 wins with 3 points or less:
Clippers, Denver, Phoenix, Toronto, Golden State, Indiana, Portland
And two overtime wins: Charlotte and Orlando (I consider them as close games regardless of final margin since at least the end of regulation has been as close as it can be.)

Then they have 8 losses with 3 points or less (including one OT loss with 3 point or less margin):
Sacramento, Denver, New York, Houston, Denver, Philly, Utah, Miami
And two overtime losses with bigger than 3 point margin:
San Antonio, Lakers

Which games I have missed in my calculations?

If this 9-10 record is correct, Wolves would have 18-18 record in close games in past two year. So I don't see that Rubio would have negative effect for that. But I think it doesn't mean that he couldn't have negative effect on team's performance in the end of game. I just think it is silly to use close game record for proofing anything since there exist some studies that show that outcome for games that will be decided in final possession is pretty much random.

Personally I think that only teams with real super star like LeBron whom officials are allowing to do whatever is needed for win in final minutes might have higher than 50% expected win percentage in the end of game that is decided in final possession.

Better stat for checking whether Rubio has negative effect for team's performance in the end of close game would be to check for example team record on games that are within 5 points or less margin while there is less than 2 minutes time left.

Mikkeman, No need to go back and re-calculate....let's just say we are about .500 in close games and call it a day.

The real issue in my opinion is our ability to get stops. There are ways to draw up plays in end-of-game situations that can hide your worst shooter on the floor. But there is not much you can do if your team defense sucks. That is by far the biggest problem with this team when things get tight.

khans2k5 wrote:

Q12543 wrote:Khans, I didn't forget anything. Kek independently dug up a set of stats on his own. That's not "we", that's just Kek. You then piped in with a convoluted stat that made no sense.

The bottom line is this. Based on your more sane definition of close games (3 points or less); Mikkeman's definition of close games (3 points or less and OT): or Swanny's definition of close games (1 point or less), our win percentage is a better win percentage than our overall record. This despite having the alleged albatross known as Ricky Rubio, who you keep telling us is a major liability in close games.

Whatever. It's gonna take a playoff series where that will be a problem to shut you up anyway so no point arguing it anymore. Just have to wait until next year and hopefully make the playoffs for you guys to see the real basketball strategy that comes into winning a 7 game series against teams with weaknesses like that.

Khans, I'm not sure Rubio will be with us next season. I suspect Thibs will take your advice and make a strong play for Derrick Rose this offseason!

Q12543 wrote:

khans2k5 wrote:

Q12543 wrote:Khans, I didn't forget anything. Kek independently dug up a set of stats on his own. That's not "we", that's just Kek. You then piped in with a convoluted stat that made no sense.

The bottom line is this. Based on your more sane definition of close games (3 points or less); Mikkeman's definition of close games (3 points or less and OT): or Swanny's definition of close games (1 point or less), our win percentage is a better win percentage than our overall record. This despite having the alleged albatross known as Ricky Rubio, who you keep telling us is a major liability in close games.

Whatever. It's gonna take a playoff series where that will be a problem to shut you up anyway so no point arguing it anymore. Just have to wait until next year and hopefully make the playoffs for you guys to see the real basketball strategy that comes into winning a 7 game series against teams with weaknesses like that.

Khans, I'm not sure Rubio will be with us next season. I suspect Thibs will take your advice and make a strong play for Derrick Rose this offseason!

If Thibs wanted that deal he would have made it at the deadline. I think it's blatantly clear Thibs isn't just dumping Ricky and will want what he deems fair value for Ricky which was hard for anyone to meet at the deadline this year and I imagine harder now because of how he closed the season out.