Rubio having a career year statistically

[Papalrep]

Hicks--- I am just going to say it....I am SICK of Ricky Rubio. Watching our collapse at the end of the game just reminded me why this guy is so overrated. Several times during the Dallas comeback, Ricky had opportunities to either get to the basket or take very easy 15 foot jumpers. In every case, many times with the clock winding down, he gets to an open spot and then kicks it out leaving our young guys in a lurch. He is simply worthless in the closing minutes of a game because he is simply unwilling to take or make a shot in any situation that matters. Does he do some things well....yep. But his unwillingness/inability to shoot is catastrophic to this team in virtually every critical time of a game. He is a HUGE part of why this team continues to blow double digit leads game after game. And the thing is.....he is absolutely done growing as a player. Nothing changes year in - year out. He is a moderate PG who now makes too much money.

Good post. And depressing. This really spells out what we lack to close out games.

[Monster]

I know what Rubio is and isn't. Here are a couple positives that I'll point out.

After a rocky start to the year coming back from that ankle surgery he has been healthy for a decent chunk of games. Let's see if he can keep it up. Nobody wants him to not be able to stay healthy.

3 point shooting. He has had a nice stretch there and compared to earlier in the season where he looked like a guy that was scared and looked really uncomfortable shooting that shot he is putting them up and looks smoother and more confident. He missed some shots last night but if he can make people pay for leaving him open for 3's that could be enough in a playoff situation.

His turnovers are at 2.5 and he gets 8.5 assists per game. Has he been flawless? Nope he has made some poor decisions at times but passing PGs that look to make plays aren't perfect but 2.5 TO's a game is really good for a passing PG that racks up quite a few assists. Pretty much every year he has cut his TO rate and obviously that's unlikely to continue but that's been a real constant improvement.

I am a big fan of Rubio but I said last offseason they needed to look at getting a young possible PG if he can't get it done. They added Tyus in the draft and he isn't ready yet and may never be but he has offensive game. Should they pick another PG next year if he is the no brainer best player at their slot? Yes assuming that guy is a shooter.

[worldK]

Ricky doesn't need to get better - it's everyone else that does. He's not supposed to be our superstar - we have the last two #1 picks that are supposed to fulfill that role. What I don't want to do is have guys like Wiggins, Towns, etc. take a step forward next year only to take two steps back as a team because we have a rookie PG at the helm.

I'm not against drafting Dunn if he's the best player on the board when we draft. Let him push Rubio in the years that follow and perhaps he eventually is the better player.

Outrageous statement q. I like rubio and is a big fan of his, but to say he doesn't need to get any better is just silly.

Rubio needs to learn to shoot better. His shooting woes was exploited by dallas last night and contributed to our loss. He was left open and just couldn't make a jumper. He became a liability.

You say rubio isn't supposed to be our superstar yet everyone else needs to get better around him while he gets a pass? That sounds like your treating him like a superstar when everyone else needs to step up their game to compliment him. Towns and Wiggins are the best players on this team right now and they will be the all stars of the team in the years to come. But if rubio where to remain a core player, he needs to step up his game. He's being paid 55m for 4 years. He needs to not be the worst shooter in the league for that amount of money.

Nothing would make me happier if rubio can become a passable shooter as Im a big fan and would love to see him with the team for a long time, but the reality is he needs to improve as much as the others needs to and he should be held accountable for it.

[Lipoli390]

Sorry, I have to agree with Q here. Rubio's not the problem. He is what he is -- an excellent defender, rebounder, foul shooter and playmaker at his position. Unfortunately, he's a terrible shooter, although he does have potential to become a decent set three-point shooter. But as Q said, the key to this team going forward is the development of our young guys with star or superstar potential, namely KAT and Wiggins as well as LaVine and Bazz. What all four of these guys have in common is that they are all scorers. Then there's Belly who is also a scorer/shooter. KAT, LaVine and Belly all have the potential to be good three-point shooters. Bazz could become a decent 3-point shooter and even Wiggins might get there. And we can always pick up or trade for a 3-point shooting specialist to work into our rotation down the road.

In other words, we have plenty of scorers among our young core. The just need to develop their core scoring/shooting skills or, put another way, become better at what they naturally do. So we clearly have a roster that can flourish with a playmaking defensive-oriented PG like Ricky. I was disappointed in Ricky's missed shots late in last night's game. But how Bazz missing all those wide-open looks late in the forth quarter? As a scorer, he needs to hit those shots. And getting the great looks he got was largely attributable to the playmaking of Ricky. Or how about Pek missing several bunnies as he went 2-7 from the field? A 6'11 center missing point-blank lay ups in the paint is a problem. And guess who typically got Pek those easy shots he missed?

We had a scoring PG playing for us last season. His name was Moe Williams. How did that go? The fate of this franchise going forward will turn on the development of our young core, especially two top draft picks, KAT and Wiggins. I understand the frustration with Ricky, but he should be the least of our concerns.

[worldK]

Lip, Im not saying rubio is the problem here. Im just saying that q saying rubio doesn't need to improve is a silly statement. If rubio improves his shooting then that instantly makes us a better team. He is earning 55m for 4 years and we should expect an improvement for a relatively young player.

No one is saying rubio should be a scoring pg, all he needs to be is an average shooter and that should be his and the teams goal.

This team will go where Wiggins and Towns take them but every other young guys on the team needs to improve along with them including rubio. And I think rubio will be the first person to agree that he needs to shoot better.

[Porckchop]

Oh my favorite, still using the word potential on Rubio!

[Lipoli390]

Lip, Im not saying rubio is the problem here. Im just saying that q saying rubio doesn't need to improve is a silly statement. If rubio improves his shooting then that instantly makes us a better team. He is earning 55m for 4 years and we should expect an improvement for a relatively young player.

No one is saying rubio should be a scoring pg, all he needs to be is an average shooter and that should be his and the teams goal.

This team will go where Wiggins and Towns take them but every other young guys on the team needs to improve along with them including rubio. And I think rubio will be the first person to agree that he needs to shoot better.

I get what you're saying, World. And I agree that the attitude of this organization and every player under 30 should be that they need to improve.

[MikkeMan]

There has been a lot of discussion how Rubio's shooting is historically bad and that no other starting guard are even remotely close as bad as shooters. Since I'm not exactly sure what people are typically meaning with term shooting, I went and checked how Ricky is currently ranked in different shooting related stats among starting guards. I selected four different categories (true shooting %, 3-point shooting, jump shooting and finishing at rim). It seems that Ricky was ranked in each category to bottom 10. But it was a little surprise for me that he ranked bottom four only in finishing at rim.

Here is list of starting guards that have comparable or worse TS% than Ricky:

Emmanuel Mudiay 38.4%
Derrick Rose 46.2%
Danny Green 46.9%
Elfrid Payton 46.9%
Ish Smith 47.0%
D'Angelo Russell 48.8%
Michael Carter-Williams 49.2%
Rajon Rondo 49.5%
Monta Ellis 49.5%
Victor Oladipo 49.7%

Ricky has currently TS% 49.4 that is 8th worst of all starting guards.

Here is the list of starting guards that are currently comparable or worse 3-point shooters than Ricky:

Dwyane Wade 22.6%
Derrick Rose 24.4%
Andrew Wiggins 24.5%
Emmanuel Mudiay 25.3%
DeMar DeRozan 27.0%
Monta Ellis 27.1%
Russell Westbrook 29.1%
Jarrett Jack 30.4%
Ish Smith 31.5%
Jimmy Butler 31.7%

Ricky has currently 3P% 31.4 that is 8th worst of all starting guards. From that group only half (Ellis, Westbrook, Jack and Butler) have made more three pointers than Ricky.

Here is the list of starting guards that are currently comparable or worse jump shooters than Ricky:

Emmanuel Mudiay 25.8%
Ben McLemore 31.4%
Raul Neto 32.4%
Danny Green 32.8%
Rajon Rondo 33.1%
Elfrid Payton 33.3%
Isaiah Canaan 34.0%
Bojan Bogdanovic 34.3%
Jimmy Butler 35.3%
Ish Smith 35.3%

Ricky has currently jump shooting % 32.9 that is 5th worst of all starting guards.

Here is the list of starting guards that are currently comparable or worse finishers at rim than Ricky:

Isaiah Canaan 41.7%
C.J. McCollum 45.3%
Emmanuel Mudiay 46.7%
Damian Lillard 47.4%
Jeff Teague 48.0%
Victor Oladipo 48.1%
Patrick Beverley 48.2%
Wesley Matthews 48.3%
Derrick Rose 48.4%
Tyreke Evans 49.0%

Ricky is currently finishing at rim 44.1% that is 2nd worst of all starting guards.

It seems that good teams can survive even with one bad shooter as their starting guard; Danny Green in San Antonio (since he has been really good in past, I guess teams are still respecting his shot) and Westbrook in Oklahoma (Durant is so good at small forward position that he compensates a lot of Westbooks mediocre shooting) and Derozan in Toronto. But typically teams that have two bad shooters in backcourt have quite a lot problems in offense. Philly with their horrible back court, Orlando with Payton and Oladipo, Brooklyn with Jack and Bogdanovic, Chicago with Rose and Butler and Minnesota with Rubio and Wiggins all rank in bottom eight in offensive rating.

Only exception among bad shooting back courts is Sacramento. They have had decent offensive rating even though Rondo - McLemore back court is one of the worst shooting back courts in whole league.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Interesting stats Mikk... but I think it's important to remember we have to add everything up collectively. For example, seeing guys like Westbrook and Butler on a list could make somebody stop and think... "Hey, see... it's not so bad." I didn't even see FG% listed. I know some think it's an outdated stat... but I think it has legit relevance.

But both of those guys are SOOOOO good at other kinds of shooting. For example, Butler is shooting 45% overall with a TS% of .567. Westbrook is at 45.3% and .553. I chuckle when Westbrook's success is STILL attributed to Durant. (The general public's perception of those two remains a fascinating topic for another time. Westbrook's PER is at 29.3 right now for chrissakes!). Danny Green sticks out like a sore thumb on SA. He's skating by on his past successes... for now. We'll see how long that lasts. Along with that... he's a low-usage part-time player. He's playing about half a game and will be playing less than that in the playoffs (even as every lineup's 5th option) if he can't improve his shooting.

So, basically... very few guys in this league (sans S. Curry) kick ass at shooting from nearly everywhere. Rubio and Mudiay lead the charge at sucking at shooting from almost everywhere (Rubio remains a plus at the line). Put Wiggins next to him... and add at least one non-shooter (Prince), and the issue escalates.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Thanks for the analysis Mikkeman, good stuff.

Interestingly enough, you left out free throw shooting. Rubio is middle-of-the pack in both the ability to draw fouls and make his free throws. While that hardly makes up for his other shooting shortcomings, it is still a helpful skill.

The one area I continue to hold out hope on is his set-shot 3. He's right on the cusp of effectiveness with that shot. If that becomes a consistent threat - and players can develop that shot later in their careers - it has a domino effect on offensive efficiency because it will open up more space on the floor.

But at the end of the day, if neither Rubio or Wiggins can develop a 3-point shot, they will have a tough time co-existing in the back court and that means ultimately Rubio will need to be replaced by someone else.