Insider Wolves Article

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I don't think it's that difficult. The reality is that most teams still field a traditional, bigger lineup to start the 1st and 3rd quarters, which is why our young skinny guys got pounded on the boards. Role with Rubio/Wiggins/Deng/Dieng/KAT to start, but ultimately the unit that plays as many minutes if not more is Rubio/LaVine/Wiggins/Deng/KAT. That's your closing unit.

[MikkeMan]

Thx for that, mikkeman. Some good discussion here, but absent a complete change in Wiggins on the boards, I still can't see thibs accepting his 3.6 RPG at the small forward position. Cam makes a very compelling case for Deng to be our PF, and I agree that could create a very powerful offensive starting lineup...the problem is everything else. Here are my issues with Deng at PF:

1) he averaged 6 RPG last season, about the same as he has for his career...acceptable for a SF, but not nearly acceptable for a PF. Now pair him with Wiggins' 3.6 rebounds per game, and our forwards would be pulling down fewer than 10 RPG combined. I think that would make us the worst rebounding team in the league...certainly not Thibs style

2) We all watched Deng shut down Derozen in the playoffs...I think most would say he did a much better job than James on Derozen. At age 30, Luol is still an elite wing defender. I don't know that forcing him to guard PFs is the best use of his defensive skills.

3) I agree with the pundits who see 6th man as Zach's best role. I love Zach, but there is a substantial amount of homerism involved in calling him a future all-star...very few if any objective analysts would predict that. But the guy can put up points quickly even at 21, and prolific bench scoring is exactly what this team needs. Let him continue to learn the NBA game starting games on the bench...he will be much more ready to be a complete 2-way starter at age 24 when Deng's 3-year contract is up.

To be fair Deng averaged over 8 rebounds as starting power forward. So in his case position matters. Still even if he would average over 8 rebounds, I would think that our defensive rebounding would not be good enough. Even tough Deng's production was much better as power forward, I think it was mainly because he got more touches and higher usage since Bosh was out. Also Miami as a team played much better offensively without Bosh. I think they had better spacing with Deng as a power forward even tough Bosh is pretty good shooter as well.

Second point I agree very much. Deng could not guard top wings for us as a power forward because Wiggins won't be at least yeat strong enough to guard power forwards. In case of Miami, it was different story because they had 240lbs JJ as a small forward.

I think Lavine might play individually better as starter next to Ricky but I don't believe that he would not be able to develop as well if he would come from bench. I think trio of Jones, Lavine and Shabazz is not good enough defensively. So I still hope that they could swap Shabazz for some 3&D wing.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Matt -- Batum is a closer call for me because of his age and passing ability. He seems a better fit for us than Deng even though I'm a big Deng fan.

I'm a big Batum fan also. As Lip says, he is a terrific passer and younger than Deng, and is also a terrific wing defender. Here's why I prefer Deng though:

1) A quick internet search will tell you that Batum is looking for a max contract, and that brings the same cap issues that I have talked about with Horford. The Wolves can absorb a max contract this year and next, but giving out a 4-year max this summer will almost certainly put them in the luxury tax when it comes time to pay KAT and Wig (and maybe even Zach, if he becomes a star). I can tell you that the owners (especially the minority ones) are not going to pay that punitive tax, and we risk losing one (or even 2) of our young potential stars.
2) As Cam has mentioned, Deng has the flexibility to play PF when Thibs decides to go with a small lineup. At 200 pounds, Batum is an unlikely option at PF.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Thx for that, mikkeman. Some good discussion here, but absent a complete change in Wiggins on the boards, I still can't see thibs accepting his 3.6 RPG at the small forward position. Cam makes a very compelling case for Deng to be our PF, and I agree that could create a very powerful offensive starting lineup...the problem is everything else. Here are my issues with Deng at PF:

1) he averaged 6 RPG last season, about the same as he has for his career...acceptable for a SF, but not nearly acceptable for a PF. Now pair him with Wiggins' 3.6 rebounds per game, and our forwards would be pulling down fewer than 10 RPG combined. I think that would make us the worst rebounding team in the league...certainly not Thibs style

2) We all watched Deng shut down Derozen in the playoffs...I think most would say he did a much better job than James on Derozen. At age 30, Luol is still an elite wing defender. I don't know that forcing him to guard PFs is the best use of his defensive skills.

3) I agree with the pundits who see 6th man as Zach's best role. I love Zach, but there is a substantial amount of homerism involved in calling him a future all-star...very few if any objective analysts would predict that. But the guy can put up points quickly even at 21, and prolific bench scoring is exactly what this team needs. Let him continue to learn the NBA game starting games on the bench...he will be much more ready to be a complete 2-way starter at age 24 when Deng's 3-year contract is up.

To be fair Deng averaged over 8 rebounds as starting power forward. So in his case position matters. Still even if he would average over 8 rebounds, I would think that our defensive rebounding would not be good enough. Even tough Deng's production was much better as power forward, I think it was mainly because he got more touches and higher usage since Bosh was out. Also Miami as a team played much better offensively without Bosh. I think they had better spacing with Deng as a power forward even tough Bosh is pretty good shooter as well.

Second point I agree very much. Deng could not guard top wings for us as a power forward because Wiggins won't be at least yeat strong enough to guard power forwards. In case of Miami, it was different story because they had 240lbs JJ as a small forward.

I think Lavine might play individually better as starter next to Ricky but I don't believe that he would not be able to develop as well if he would come from bench. I think trio of Jones, Lavine and Shabazz is not good enough defensively. So I still hope that they could swap Shabazz for some 3&D wing.

Further, it has been pointed out that Zach plays better next to Ricky, but I think he will get plenty of run next to Rubio. If Thibs' acquires Deng, I see Zach coming in to the game for Luol in the 1st quarter and playing some minutes between Ricky and Wig. I would see the PG/wing rotation looking something like this:

PG: Rubio (38) Jones (10)
SG: Wig (24) Zach (24)
SF: Deng (28) Wig (12) Bazz (8)

A few of Zach's minutes might be paired with Tyus, but I would guess Thibs wouldn't like that from a defensive standpoint and would work his rotation to try to pair Ricky with Zach as much as possible.

[MikkeMan]

Further, it has been pointed out that Zach plays better next to Ricky, but I think he will get plenty of run next to Rubio. If Thibs' acquires Deng, I see Zach coming in to the game for Luol in the 1st quarter and playing some minutes between Ricky and Wig. I would see the PG/wing rotation looking something like this:

PG: Rubio (38) Jones (10)
SG: Wig (24) Zach (24)
SF: Deng (28) Wig (12) Bazz (8)

A few of Zach's minutes might be paired with Tyus, but I would guess Thibs wouldn't like that from a defensive standpoint and would work his rotation to try to pair Ricky with Zach as much as possible.

I hope and actually I honestly don't believe that Ricky would be playing 38 minutes under Thibbs. Rose played more than 36 minutes per game only in his first season under Thibbs. After suffering those serious injuries, he has not played in any season more than 31 minutes per game under Thibbs. I believe that Ricky would play around 34 minutes per game. I also think that it is still probable that we will get some veteran point to share those backup point minutes with Jones.

[kekgeek]

Further, it has been pointed out that Zach plays better next to Ricky, but I think he will get plenty of run next to Rubio. If Thibs' acquires Deng, I see Zach coming in to the game for Luol in the 1st quarter and playing some minutes between Ricky and Wig. I would see the PG/wing rotation looking something like this:

PG: Rubio (38) Jones (10)
SG: Wig (24) Zach (24)
SF: Deng (28) Wig (12) Bazz (8)

A few of Zach's minutes might be paired with Tyus, but I would guess Thibs wouldn't like that from a defensive standpoint and would work his rotation to try to pair Ricky with Zach as much as possible.

I hope and actually I honestly don't believe that Ricky would be playing 38 minutes under Thibbs. Rose played more than 36 minutes per game only in his first season under Thibbs. After suffering those serious injuries, he has not played in any season more than 31 minutes per game under Thibbs. I believe that Ricky would play around 34 minutes per game. I also think that it is still probable that we will get some veteran point to share those backup point minutes with Jones.

Agreed also thibs has had a pretty good history in turning average at best pg to good backup pgs in Augustin, robinson and brooks

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

Rebounding stats are kind of overrated. Sometimes your guy bails, many times you get a lucky bounce. I think anyone who is willing can crash the boards and get good numbers. Mostly effort and not a skill set.

[Monster]

Matt -- Batum is a closer call for me because of his age and passing ability. He seems a better fit for us than Deng even though I'm a big Deng fan.

I'm a big Batum fan also. As Lip says, he is a terrific passer and younger than Deng, and is also a terrific wing defender. Here's why I prefer Deng though:

1) A quick internet search will tell you that Batum is looking for a max contract, and that brings the same cap issues that I have talked about with Horford. The Wolves can absorb a max contract this year and next, but giving out a 4-year max this summer will almost certainly put them in the luxury tax when it comes time to pay KAT and Wig (and maybe even Zach, if he becomes a star). I can tell you that the owners (especially the minority ones) are not going to pay that punitive tax, and we risk losing one (or even 2) of our young potential stars.
2) As Cam has mentioned, Deng has the flexibility to play PF when Thibs decides to go with a small lineup. At 200 pounds, Batum is an unlikely option at PF.

That 200lb listing can't be accurate. I watched Batum in the playoffs it looks like there is no way he is only 200lbs now he looks to have filled out plenty the last couple years. DX has his combine weight at 214 when he was drafted and there is no way he has dropped 14 lbs since then. Lol I would think he can at least play small ball PF.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Rebounding stats are kind of overrated. Sometimes your guy bails, many times you get a lucky bounce. I think anyone who is willing can crash the boards and get good numbers. Mostly effort and not a skill set.

Right, effort isn't a skill that one can be trained for, which is why it's actually MORE difficult to expect guys to drastically improve in the hustle type stats, like rebounds, loose balls corralled, charges taken, etc.

I do think there are guys who have a naturally high motor that may sometimes gear down because they are high usage players offensively. LeBron and Westbrook are two examples of guys that simply carry too big of a load offensively to be expected to consistently play lock down defense, although we've seen how they can gear up come playoff time.

[Lipoli390]

This next season will be the final test of whether Wiggins has it in him to attack the boards and react to loose balls. If Thibs can't bring it out of him then no one can. But fortunately, the rest of the players in the starting lineup that I have in mind all have that motor Wiggins doesn't have. KAT clearly has it in spades. Gorgui has it and his rebounding will continue to improve as he gets stronger and smarter. Ricky has it, which is why he's one of the best rebounding PGs in the League. Zach has it and, together with his athleticism, I expect his rebounding to be another area of improvement for him.

Yes, a Deng/Wiggins rebounding combo would be better than a Wiggins/Zach combo IF Wiggins doesn't improve his rebounding. But keep in mind, the difference between Wiggins and Deng is 2 boards per game (Wiggins career avg. is 4.1; Deng's is 6.2). So the difference is not enormous and it's not a huge stretch to expect a 21 year old with Wiggins' physical gifts to improve that much just be getting physically stronger as we know he will, especially with him and his head coach focusing on it. Also keep in mind that while potentially gaining 2 or 3 rebounds per game with the Deng/Wiggins duo, we'd loose a lot of 3-point shooting AND we loose having a second ball-handler on the court with Ricky. Teams don't contend for championships without at least two really good ball-handlers on the court in their starting lineups.

Long -- I'm not sure who here has predicted that Zach WILL become an all-star. I know I haven't. So I don't think homerism has anything to do with this debate about Zach as our starting SG. In fact, I've been clear that his numbers last year as a non-allstar, especially post all-start break, support having him as our starting SG. Most NBA teams don't have an allstar SG. I think some of us have said Zach has that POTENTIAL to be an all-star. No one can credibly argue otherwise. But it's not the predicate for the argument that he should be our starting SG.