Minnesota Sports Forum

Camden wrote:Jesus Christ, khans. I didn't say that workouts were meaningless. I said the decision will/should primarily be made based on film. You're over here saying: "to throw the workouts out is dumb". I never said that, but I do hold game footage way higher than workouts in determining if I should draft a player over another. If you disagree with that notion, then sure, give me a rebuttal. Don't spin the debate by making it something it's not.

You may have not said it, but I will. WORKOUTS ARE MEANINGLESS!!!

Given the technology, analytics, and body of work going back to prep/AAU days with these guys, what could we possibly learn from a one-time workout? If anything, I find them risky because it's a sample size of one event. Hell, even I've hit 20 straight jumpers in an empty gym before. It doesn't mean I have a good outside shot in real games. It was this type of workout that convinced Kahn to take Johnny Flynn. Disastrous!

These guys can take film, organize and sort it situationally, and analyze all sorts of various scenarios in actual game action. You'll never replicate this via a workout.

So I beg the Timberwolves, please don't bring these guys in for a workout. In fact, just stay the hell away from them. Don't let a single good or bad day inform your decision when there is a strong body of work that already exists on these guys.

Darko Milicic raised his stock by shooting jump shots and dribbling around 40 year old guys with brooms in their hands.

Ummmmm... err..... ummm....

Q12543 wrote:

Camden wrote:Jesus Christ, khans. I didn't say that workouts were meaningless. I said the decision will/should primarily be made based on film. You're over here saying: "to throw the workouts out is dumb". I never said that, but I do hold game footage way higher than workouts in determining if I should draft a player over another. If you disagree with that notion, then sure, give me a rebuttal. Don't spin the debate by making it something it's not.

You may have not said it, but I will. WORKOUTS ARE MEANINGLESS!!!

Given the technology, analytics, and body of work going back to prep/AAU days with these guys, what could we possibly learn from a one-time workout? If anything, I find them risky because it's a sample size of one event. Hell, even I've hit 20 straight jumpers in an empty gym before. It doesn't mean I have a good outside shot in real games. It was this type of workout that convinced Kahn to take Johnny Flynn. Disastrous!

These guys can take film, organize and sort it situationally, and analyze all sorts of various scenarios in actual game action. You'll never replicate this via a workout.

So I beg the Timberwolves, please don't bring these guys in for a workout. In fact, just stay the hell away from them. Don't let a single good or bad day inform your decision when there is a strong body of work that already exists on these guys.

Here is the thing with workouts: It's just one of several tools used to evaluate prospects. They certainly have some value, but to over or underestimate their importance would be a mistake. The one thing I know a workout can do is identify extremes. If you have a terrible workout, to me, that says something. Likewise if you have a great one against other similar players, that tells me something. But for the 70% who fall inbetween those two extremes it probably doesn't have a ton of value. But you still need to go through it as part of the process.

Workouts are as meaningless as dating before marriage. You can just look up her stats online now.

CoolBreeze44 wrote:

Q12543 wrote:

Camden wrote:Jesus Christ, khans. I didn't say that workouts were meaningless. I said the decision will/should primarily be made based on film. You're over here saying: "to throw the workouts out is dumb". I never said that, but I do hold game footage way higher than workouts in determining if I should draft a player over another. If you disagree with that notion, then sure, give me a rebuttal. Don't spin the debate by making it something it's not.

You may have not said it, but I will. WORKOUTS ARE MEANINGLESS!!!

Given the technology, analytics, and body of work going back to prep/AAU days with these guys, what could we possibly learn from a one-time workout? If anything, I find them risky because it's a sample size of one event. Hell, even I've hit 20 straight jumpers in an empty gym before. It doesn't mean I have a good outside shot in real games. It was this type of workout that convinced Kahn to take Johnny Flynn. Disastrous!

These guys can take film, organize and sort it situationally, and analyze all sorts of various scenarios in actual game action. You'll never replicate this via a workout.

So I beg the Timberwolves, please don't bring these guys in for a workout. In fact, just stay the hell away from them. Don't let a single good or bad day inform your decision when there is a strong body of work that already exists on these guys.

Here is the thing with workouts: It's just one of several tools used to evaluate prospects. They certainly have some value, but to over or underestimate their importance would be a mistake. The one thing I know a workout can do is identify extremes. If you have a terrible workout, to me, that says something. Likewise if you have a great one against other similar players, that tells me something. But for the 70% who fall inbetween those two extremes it probably doesn't have a ton of value. But you still need to go through it as part of the process.

Totally agree. If you have Towns and Okafor rated the same, a workout would be a good tie breaker. Never base everything off of a workout though.

I'm a big believer in http://psychology.wikia.com/wiki/Recency_effectrecency effect.

Workouts are such a tiny, narrow sample of a player's total body of work that the risk of recency effect bias far outweighs whatever new information can be discerned from the workout (and I'm skeptical that anything "new" can even be discovered).

I just think it's a total waste of time and used more as a crutch for old-school scouts to justify their existence.

By the way, for those of you who are advocates, exactly what do you propose the workout consists of? Shuttle runs? Beep-tests? Shooting drills? Okafor destroying Justin Hamilton in mock post--up situations?

(by the way, I'm not sure either player would even agree to a workout. And they shouldn't because there is zero upside from their perspective).

Q12543 wrote:I'm a big believer in http://psychology.wikia.com/wiki/Recency_effectrecency effect.

Workouts are such a tiny, narrow sample of a player's total body of work that the risk of recency effect bias far outweighs whatever new information can be discerned from the workout (and I'm skeptical that anything "new" can even be discovered).

I just think it's a total waste of time and used more as a crutch for old-school scouts to justify their existence.

By the way, for those of you who are advocates, exactly what do you propose the workout consists of? Shuttle runs? Beep-tests? Shooting drills? Okafor destroying Justin Hamilton in mock post--up situations?

(by the way, I'm not sure either player would even agree to a workout. And they shouldn't because there is zero upside from their perspective).

You ever hear of an NFL pro day? Same concept. They shouldn't be a large factor in determining a rating, but they do give you another chance to interact with the prospect and have him do some specific things to possibly fill in some blanks. Your window is pretty short at the combine to glean all you can from a prospect. Private workouts are just another piece of the puzzle.

I totally agree that the full body of work is much more important, and nothing beats the tape. But I won't go so far to say that individual workouts are worthless.

thedoper wrote:Workouts are as meaningless as dating before marriage. You can just look up her stats online now.

Lol

Workouts still have value IMO, but you have to keep them in perspective. They also depend on who they are going up against in these workouts. Seeing Towns vs Okafor certainly would have some value, but I doubt that happens. They can also test players in areas they weren't utilized during college.

Camden0916 wrote:Jesus Christ, khans. I didn't say that workouts were meaningless. I said the decision will/should primarily be made based on film. You're over here saying: "to throw the workouts out is dumb". I never said that, but I do hold game footage way higher than workouts in determining if I should draft a player over another. If you disagree with that notion, then sure, give me a rebuttal. Don't spin the debate by making it something it's not.

I'm not spinning anything.

"I guess in theory it could make his decision easier, but these decision-makers don't make moves based on interviews, 5v5, 3v3, drills and such. They study the film because that's where the answers are found."

Newsflash, they take all of it into account. Interviews can hurt your stock. Physical testing can hurt your stock. Bad workouts can hurt your stock. If the rest of the NFL wasn't stupid Teddy Bridgewater would have never fallen that far and let us trade up to get him. He had a bad pro day and that sealed his fate with high level decision makers who got scared. This stuff happens, but it also all matters and you said yourself that they should only really care about the tape. 1 piece of information. You're belittling other information when it all matters. Workouts are a teams chances to call bullshit or see if a guy is somewhat capable of doing things he says he can i.e. any type of shooting or post moves. You don't think if Towns comes in here and hits 15/25 3's that shouldn't affect their decision? That's something that isn't on the college game tape more than 8 shots he went 2/8 on. It all matters. It's all pieces to a final puzzle. Game tape is only part of the equation and you do a disservice if you minimize or throw everything else out the window if you're just going to use game tape to scout a guy.