Minnesota Sports Forum

60WinTim wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2024 4:24 pm Jarrett Allen just signed a 3 year extension for $91 mil starting in '26-27. That first year starts at 28 mil. That's encouraging for those of us hoping the Wolves can work out an extension for Rudy. I looked at the numbers again with Rob and Shannon in the mix -- a Rudy opt-out-sign-an-extension that starts at 30 mil next year would probably put the Wolves under the LUXURY tax for '25-26! (that assumes NAZ opts out and is not re-signed, and NAW moves on as well)

No, it wouldn’t. As I noted above, paying Rudy $30 million would put the Wolves payroll at around $191 million if the Wolves let Naz and NAW walk and fill fill six empty roster slots solely the minimum vet players. Even if the cap goes up 10%, the Wolves would be around $4 million over the luxury tax threshold. Realistically, TC is not going to let Naz walk and keeping him will likely cost an annual salary of at least $25 million. That means keeping Rudy at $30 million and Naz at $25 million would have us over the second apron again. We can’t gloss over the math with wishful thinking. Rudy will have to be willing to settle for $20 million per year to give the Wolves any chance of staying under the second apron without losing Naz and even then it would be a close call. There’s no way the Wolves get below the luxury tax unless they let Rudy walk.

Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2024 11:16 pm

60WinTim wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2024 4:24 pm Jarrett Allen just signed a 3 year extension for $91 mil starting in '26-27. That first year starts at 28 mil. That's encouraging for those of us hoping the Wolves can work out an extension for Rudy. I looked at the numbers again with Rob and Shannon in the mix -- a Rudy opt-out-sign-an-extension that starts at 30 mil next year would probably put the Wolves under the LUXURY tax for '25-26! (that assumes NAZ opts out and is not re-signed, and NAW moves on as well)

No, it wouldn’t. As I noted above, paying Rudy $30 million would put the Wolves payroll at around $191 million if the Wolves let Naz and NAW walk and fill fill six empty roster slots solely the minimum vet players. Even if the cap goes up 10%, the Wolves would be around $4 million over the luxury tax threshold. Realistically, TC is not going to let Naz walk and keeping him will likely cost an annual salary of at least $25 million. That means keeping Rudy at $30 million and Naz at $25 million would have us over the second apron again. We can’t gloss over the math with wishful thinking. Rudy will have to be willing to settle for $20 million per year to give the Wolves any chance of staying under the second apron without losing Naz and even then it would be a close call. There’s no way the Wolves get below the luxury tax unless they let Rudy walk.

Let Rudy walk?!? That's not a thing. Rudy ain't walking away from 46 mil!

And your math is not quite right. You should assume the Wolves will only fill the required 14 roster spots, which shaves 2+ mil off your salary total. And if you figure two of those roster spots are filled with rookie 2nd round players (Clark and J Edwards, for example), their salaries are much lower than the vet minimum. MY MATH says the Wolves can get their salaries down to just under 187.5 mil, and the luxury tax threshold is projected at just over 187.5 mil.

The financial benefits of getting under the luxury tax to avoid being a repeater tax payer are GI-normous. TC has positioned the team so there is a pathway to getting under that threshold, while keeping the starting lineup intact! Which is pretty damn impressive considering where we thought things were headed a year or two ago.

Of course, maybe ownership doesn't care about money and will continue to pay everyone under the sun. But I feel pretty good that even if money is an issue, the Wolves have the pathway to continue being a great team.

Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2024 11:16 pm

60WinTim wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2024 4:24 pm Jarrett Allen just signed a 3 year extension for $91 mil starting in '26-27. That first year starts at 28 mil. That's encouraging for those of us hoping the Wolves can work out an extension for Rudy. I looked at the numbers again with Rob and Shannon in the mix -- a Rudy opt-out-sign-an-extension that starts at 30 mil next year would probably put the Wolves under the LUXURY tax for '25-26! (that assumes NAZ opts out and is not re-signed, and NAW moves on as well)

No, it wouldn’t. As I noted above, paying Rudy $30 million would put the Wolves payroll at around $191 million if the Wolves let Naz and NAW walk and fill fill six empty roster slots solely the minimum vet players. Even if the cap goes up 10%, the Wolves would be around $4 million over the luxury tax threshold. Realistically, TC is not going to let Naz walk and keeping him will likely cost an annual salary of at least $25 million. That means keeping Rudy at $30 million and Naz at $25 million would have us over the second apron again. We can’t gloss over the math with wishful thinking. Rudy will have to be willing to settle for $20 million per year to give the Wolves any chance of staying under the second apron without losing Naz and even then it would be a close call. There’s no way the Wolves get below the luxury tax unless they let Rudy walk.

If Naz gets 25 million a year that will be such a killer to the wolves long term in my opinion. Once again I love Naz but he has big flaws and once again underperformed in the playoffs again. The big 3 bigs situation is going to be so interesting next offseason

kekgeek wrote: ↑Fri Aug 02, 2024 8:54 pm

Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2024 11:16 pm

60WinTim wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2024 4:24 pm Jarrett Allen just signed a 3 year extension for $91 mil starting in '26-27. That first year starts at 28 mil. That's encouraging for those of us hoping the Wolves can work out an extension for Rudy. I looked at the numbers again with Rob and Shannon in the mix -- a Rudy opt-out-sign-an-extension that starts at 30 mil next year would probably put the Wolves under the LUXURY tax for '25-26! (that assumes NAZ opts out and is not re-signed, and NAW moves on as well)

No, it wouldn’t. As I noted above, paying Rudy $30 million would put the Wolves payroll at around $191 million if the Wolves let Naz and NAW walk and fill fill six empty roster slots solely the minimum vet players. Even if the cap goes up 10%, the Wolves would be around $4 million over the luxury tax threshold. Realistically, TC is not going to let Naz walk and keeping him will likely cost an annual salary of at least $25 million. That means keeping Rudy at $30 million and Naz at $25 million would have us over the second apron again. We can’t gloss over the math with wishful thinking. Rudy will have to be willing to settle for $20 million per year to give the Wolves any chance of staying under the second apron without losing Naz and even then it would be a close call. There’s no way the Wolves get below the luxury tax unless they let Rudy walk.

If Naz gets 25 million a year that will be such a killer to the wolves long term in my opinion. Once again I love Naz but he has big flaws and once again underperformed in the playoffs again. The big 3 bigs situation is going to be so interesting next offseason

I see your point, Kek. But bottom line is the Wolves can’t give Rudy $30 million per year on a four-year deal. The Wolves could do that and probably get a little below the second apron if they also let both Naz and NAW walk, assuming the cap increases 10% as Tim predicts. But they’d still be above the luxury tax threshold and possibly above the 1st apron. As for Naz, we haven’t seen the finished product yet. He was 6th man of the year and he’s going to keep getting better. Bottom line is that getting below the second apron will require the Wolves to trade KAT or Rudy for picks and salary savings unless Rudy agrees to something in the neighborhood of $20 million per year. It’s not out of the question that Rudy might take that on a 5-year deal ($100 million guaranteed) to essentially end his career with the Wolves as a likely championship contender with Ant, Jaden and Naz entering their prime along with KAT staying and continuing to play at a high level. Rudy seems like a guy who would relish finishing his career with this team and not bouncing around the remainder of his time in the NBA.

kekgeek wrote: ↑Fri Aug 02, 2024 8:54 pm

Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2024 11:16 pm

60WinTim wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2024 4:24 pm Jarrett Allen just signed a 3 year extension for $91 mil starting in '26-27. That first year starts at 28 mil. That's encouraging for those of us hoping the Wolves can work out an extension for Rudy. I looked at the numbers again with Rob and Shannon in the mix -- a Rudy opt-out-sign-an-extension that starts at 30 mil next year would probably put the Wolves under the LUXURY tax for '25-26! (that assumes NAZ opts out and is not re-signed, and NAW moves on as well)

No, it wouldn’t. As I noted above, paying Rudy $30 million would put the Wolves payroll at around $191 million if the Wolves let Naz and NAW walk and fill fill six empty roster slots solely the minimum vet players. Even if the cap goes up 10%, the Wolves would be around $4 million over the luxury tax threshold. Realistically, TC is not going to let Naz walk and keeping him will likely cost an annual salary of at least $25 million. That means keeping Rudy at $30 million and Naz at $25 million would have us over the second apron again. We can’t gloss over the math with wishful thinking. Rudy will have to be willing to settle for $20 million per year to give the Wolves any chance of staying under the second apron without losing Naz and even then it would be a close call. There’s no way the Wolves get below the luxury tax unless they let Rudy walk.

If Naz gets 25 million a year that will be such a killer to the wolves long term in my opinion. Once again I love Naz but he has big flaws and once again underperformed in the playoffs again. The big 3 bigs situation is going to be so interesting next offseason

If were going to lose at least one of Naz and or Rudy next summer, maybe we should trade both of them. Jimmy loves defenders I wonder how he feels about Rudy. The Ant/Bam pairing has looked great in the Olympics. Would Rudy and Naw for Bam get it done? If not would Rudy and Naz for Bam get it done? I would think if we traded both we would get something else back. Rudy may be the better defender, but Bam is close and is a lot better offensively.

Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 02, 2024 11:03 pm

kekgeek wrote: ↑Fri Aug 02, 2024 8:54 pm

Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2024 11:16 pm

No, it wouldn’t. As I noted above, paying Rudy $30 million would put the Wolves payroll at around $191 million if the Wolves let Naz and NAW walk and fill fill six empty roster slots solely the minimum vet players. Even if the cap goes up 10%, the Wolves would be around $4 million over the luxury tax threshold. Realistically, TC is not going to let Naz walk and keeping him will likely cost an annual salary of at least $25 million. That means keeping Rudy at $30 million and Naz at $25 million would have us over the second apron again. We can’t gloss over the math with wishful thinking. Rudy will have to be willing to settle for $20 million per year to give the Wolves any chance of staying under the second apron without losing Naz and even then it would be a close call. There’s no way the Wolves get below the luxury tax unless they let Rudy walk.

If Naz gets 25 million a year that will be such a killer to the wolves long term in my opinion. Once again I love Naz but he has big flaws and once again underperformed in the playoffs again. The big 3 bigs situation is going to be so interesting next offseason

I see your point, Kek. But bottom line is the Wolves can’t give Rudy $30 million per year on a four-year deal. The Wolves could do that and probably get a little below the second apron if they also let both Naz and NAW walk, assuming the cap increases 10% as Tim predicts. But they’d still be above the luxury tax threshold and possibly above the 1st apron. As for Naz, we haven’t seen the finished product yet. He was 6th man of the year and he’s going to keep getting better. Bottom line is that getting below the second apron will require the Wolves to trade KAT or Rudy for picks and salary savings unless Rudy agrees to something in the neighborhood of $20 million per year. It’s not out of the question that Rudy might take that on a 5-year deal ($100 million guaranteed) to essentially end his career with the Wolves as a likely championship contender with Ant, Jaden and Naz entering their prime along with KAT staying and continuing to play at a high level. Rudy seems like a guy who would relish finishing his career with this team and not bouncing around the remainder of his time in the NBA.

While we don't know how everything will play out with this new CBA when looking into the future it's worth considering what the mid-level salary will be in a few years. The projection on Sportrac is that the 2028-2029 season the mid-level would be nearly 19million before increasing to well over 20 million for the 2029-2030 season the last one of the current CBA. Salaries are gonna explode the next few years where 10 year vets will make around 5 million for a vet min deal.

While salaries in pro sports have gone up over time during my lifetime it's worth wondering now if some NBA players will do something similar to what Brunson did this off-season to take less money will still getting a huge amount of money plus he is setting himself up to make more money the year of his player option if he chooses. I'm not expecting to see a bunch of players take significantly less but some of these numbers are a lot of money. Some of the top players over the past few years have given up a couple million here or there to bring in a buddy or be able to sign a guy for more than the vet million etc. Will more players be willing to choose going to a spot that they think is better over the absolute most money they can make? I'm not holding my breath on that but it will be interesting to see what happens. Will more players be willing to come to the NBA instead of playing internationally if the money is better or chance of making massive money is better than playing in Europe? Will the NBA continue to grow the G-league? What will happen when the NBA expands?

kekgeek wrote: ↑Fri Aug 02, 2024 8:54 pm

Lipoli390 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2024 11:16 pm

60WinTim wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2024 4:24 pm Jarrett Allen just signed a 3 year extension for $91 mil starting in '26-27. That first year starts at 28 mil. That's encouraging for those of us hoping the Wolves can work out an extension for Rudy. I looked at the numbers again with Rob and Shannon in the mix -- a Rudy opt-out-sign-an-extension that starts at 30 mil next year would probably put the Wolves under the LUXURY tax for '25-26! (that assumes NAZ opts out and is not re-signed, and NAW moves on as well)

No, it wouldn’t. As I noted above, paying Rudy $30 million would put the Wolves payroll at around $191 million if the Wolves let Naz and NAW walk and fill fill six empty roster slots solely the minimum vet players. Even if the cap goes up 10%, the Wolves would be around $4 million over the luxury tax threshold. Realistically, TC is not going to let Naz walk and keeping him will likely cost an annual salary of at least $25 million. That means keeping Rudy at $30 million and Naz at $25 million would have us over the second apron again. We can’t gloss over the math with wishful thinking. Rudy will have to be willing to settle for $20 million per year to give the Wolves any chance of staying under the second apron without losing Naz and even then it would be a close call. There’s no way the Wolves get below the luxury tax unless they let Rudy walk.

If Naz gets 25 million a year that will be such a killer to the wolves long term in my opinion. Once again I love Naz but he has big flaws and once again underperformed in the playoffs again. The big 3 bigs situation is going to be so interesting next offseason

Naz isn't worth 25 Million, at least to us. If that's the number he's demanding, I'd look to trade him before we get nothing for him.

Just don't extend Rudy. That would be bad business.

Coolbreeze44 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 10, 2024 9:12 pm Just don't extend Rudy. That would be bad business.

Very unlikely he gets extended during the season. He can’t opt out and get extended during the season. He can be extended but his player option salary is locked in next year

NAZ scores 20 points per 36, those guys aren't easy to find. And he hasn't even started his prime yet. I'd hate to see him leaving the Wolves turn into an Alex English situation. I know I'm old, but look him up.