Minnesota Sports Forum

rapsuperstar31 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 30, 2025 12:23 pm

AussieWolf3 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 30, 2025 11:48 am According to NBAs stat tracking Ant is averaging 11 drives per game and that number has been ticking up over the last few games. He averages 10 points on these drives which is an incredible conversation rate, however, he only creates .6 assist on these drives with a rate of 5.8%
For comparison
SGA: 1.7 ast/ 9.2%
Luka: 1.8/12%
Case: 1.6/7.8.8%

He really need to improve year- last year he generated 1.1 at 8%- so I believe he will. This is why I keep bringing up him playing from two feet on his drives and not over committing his weight. He's shown improvement here but gets away from it when he goes hero mode

Ant is 9th in the league in secondary assists which is when you pass it to someone who passes it to someone who scores at 1.3 per game. Cade is first at 1.9 per game according to Nba.com advanced stats. Last year he was number 4 in the league at 1.2 per game.

Yes he has consistently ranked high in secondary assist which speaks to his gravity.

This unrelated to my point regarding ast on drives as he also has a fairly low pass rate when he drives at 26%>
It would be a helpful way facilitate better offense if he can do a better job of driving and kicking- which he has been pretty good at the last few years

Another stat- Ant shoots less than 2 catch and shoot shots per game which is really low number for a shooter like him (48% on these shots and they're all 3s). The offense really needs to generate more of these for him.
He both needs to pass out of his drives more often, and work off the ball better... Which are at odds to be honest, but areas I'd really like to see shifted in the offense

AussieWolf3 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 30, 2025 1:40 pm

rapsuperstar31 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 30, 2025 12:23 pm

AussieWolf3 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 30, 2025 11:48 am According to NBAs stat tracking Ant is averaging 11 drives per game and that number has been ticking up over the last few games. He averages 10 points on these drives which is an incredible conversation rate, however, he only creates .6 assist on these drives with a rate of 5.8%
For comparison
SGA: 1.7 ast/ 9.2%
Luka: 1.8/12%
Case: 1.6/7.8.8%

He really need to improve year- last year he generated 1.1 at 8%- so I believe he will. This is why I keep bringing up him playing from two feet on his drives and not over committing his weight. He's shown improvement here but gets away from it when he goes hero mode

Ant is 9th in the league in secondary assists which is when you pass it to someone who passes it to someone who scores at 1.3 per game. Cade is first at 1.9 per game according to Nba.com advanced stats. Last year he was number 4 in the league at 1.2 per game.

Yes he has consistently ranked high in secondary assist which speaks to his gravity.

This unrelated to my point regarding ast on drives as he also has a fairly low pass rate when he drives at 26%>
It would be a helpful way facilitate better offense if he can do a better job of driving and kicking- which he has been pretty good at the last few years

Another stat- Ant shoots less than 2 catch and shoot shots per game which is really low number for a shooter like him (48% on these shots and they're all 3s). The offense really needs to generate more of these for him.
He both needs to pass out of his drives more often, and work off the ball better... Which are at odds to be honest, but areas I'd really like to see shifted in the offense

This is where TSJ, in theory, should help. His ability to collapse the defense and find people was a big reason for hope during summer league and the pre-season, as it allows Ant to play off secondary actions generated by Shannon. But unfortunately it's been a poor start for him, minus the OKC and Portland games.

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Sun Nov 30, 2025 2:37 pm

AussieWolf3 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 30, 2025 1:40 pm

rapsuperstar31 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 30, 2025 12:23 pm

Ant is 9th in the league in secondary assists which is when you pass it to someone who passes it to someone who scores at 1.3 per game. Cade is first at 1.9 per game according to Nba.com advanced stats. Last year he was number 4 in the league at 1.2 per game.

Yes he has consistently ranked high in secondary assist which speaks to his gravity.

This unrelated to my point regarding ast on drives as he also has a fairly low pass rate when he drives at 26%>
It would be a helpful way facilitate better offense if he can do a better job of driving and kicking- which he has been pretty good at the last few years

Another stat- Ant shoots less than 2 catch and shoot shots per game which is really low number for a shooter like him (48% on these shots and they're all 3s). The offense really needs to generate more of these for him.
He both needs to pass out of his drives more often, and work off the ball better... Which are at odds to be honest, but areas I'd really like to see shifted in the offense

This is where TSJ, in theory, should help. His ability to collapse the defense and find people was a big reason for hope during summer league and the pre-season, as it allows Ant to play off secondary actions generated by Shannon. But unfortunately it's been a poor start for him, minus the OKC and Portland games.

It should also be where Julius helps in theory as well. Creating shots for 3 point shooters has been his best skill as a playmaker for several years now. Why this hasn't translated to better synergy between him and Ant is beyond me, but I believe it was the vision in mind when he was acquired.

Honestly Ant is not very good at moving without the ball and getting himself open on the perimeter

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Mon Nov 24, 2025 6:18 pm

FNG wrote: ↑Mon Nov 24, 2025 4:07 pm Really great information, Q! Where do you find this?

I agree that Naz's defensive EPM is the biggest surprise here. Conley sure comes out bad by this measure, doesn't he? The relatively very good numbers for our top 6 by this measure, and especially our top 3, tells me that we perhaps should be better than 10-6 right now. I wonder how many teams have two guys over 94%, or 6 guys over 61%.

It's dunksandthrees.com.

Conley doesn't come out great, but also not that bad for a backup PG. We need to start viewing him that way - as a backup PG versus a starting PG.

If you look at this it feels like Finch has the right starting group out there - literally our five best players based on this metric. Our bench is solid if not spectacular except for one glaring weakness and that's Dillingham. Right now his minutes are purely developmental, as we are getting zero on court value from him. He's literally one of the worst players in the NBA right now getting minutes. We desperately need him to improve and for Shannon to come back from injury ready to challenge others for minutes.

Interesting stats but two important contextual points. First, Rob’s limited 10 minutes per game are not enough from which we can draw any reliable conclusions. Second, I’m not sure we can attribute any of our eight losses to Rob without looking at what he did or didn’t do in those particular games, and even then his minutes pin those losses are so small and sporadic that it’s probably not worth the effort.

We have a very talented roster but we’ve lost 7 of the 8 games we’ve played against teams with plus .500 records and the only plus .500 team we beat was the Celtics who are just one game over .500 and we barely beat them on our home court. No player on this team averaging around 10 minutes per game off the bench can be seriously considered a meaningful factor in those 7 losses - not Rob, not Shannon, not Bones. Tyus Jones is averaging 2 points and 1.9 assists while shooting 31% from the field in 13.7 minutes per game for Orlando. I don’t think his terrible stats reflect on who he is as a player, but that’s what very limited sporadic minutes off the bench will do to the numbers of even an experienced veteran - in this case a guy who a lot of us wanted the Wolves to trade for.

Rob and Shannon need to be much better than they’ve been so far this season for this team to significantly improve without a major roster change. But it’s important to acknowledge that neither one has played enough to meaningfully assess them, especially given their lack of NBA experience. I believe both, especially Shannon because of his age and years of college experience, can eventually elevate the Wolves play yet this season if they get enough consistent, meaningful minutes. In Rob’s case, I think it’s more like next season but only if he gets enough meaningful minutes per game this season. I’d really like to get a much better idea of what we have in Shannon and Rob before the middle of January when pre-deadline trade talks begin in earnest.

Meanwhile, we can’t let Finch off the hook for a team record thus far that falls short of the team’s collective talent.

AussieWolf3 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 30, 2025 4:31 pm

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Sun Nov 30, 2025 2:37 pm

AussieWolf3 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 30, 2025 1:40 pm

Yes he has consistently ranked high in secondary assist which speaks to his gravity.

This unrelated to my point regarding ast on drives as he also has a fairly low pass rate when he drives at 26%>
It would be a helpful way facilitate better offense if he can do a better job of driving and kicking- which he has been pretty good at the last few years

Another stat- Ant shoots less than 2 catch and shoot shots per game which is really low number for a shooter like him (48% on these shots and they're all 3s). The offense really needs to generate more of these for him.
He both needs to pass out of his drives more often, and work off the ball better... Which are at odds to be honest, but areas I'd really like to see shifted in the offense

This is where TSJ, in theory, should help. His ability to collapse the defense and find people was a big reason for hope during summer league and the pre-season, as it allows Ant to play off secondary actions generated by Shannon. But unfortunately it's been a poor start for him, minus the OKC and Portland games.

It should also be where Julius helps in theory as well. Creating shots for 3 point shooters has been his best skill as a playmaker for several years now. Why this hasn't translated to better synergy between him and Ant is beyond me, but I believe it was the vision in mind when he was acquired.

Honestly Ant is not very good at moving without the ball and getting himself open on the perimeter

Defenses don't tend to help off of Ant too often either.

AussieWolf3 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 30, 2025 4:31 pm

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Sun Nov 30, 2025 2:37 pm

AussieWolf3 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 30, 2025 1:40 pm

Yes he has consistently ranked high in secondary assist which speaks to his gravity.

This unrelated to my point regarding ast on drives as he also has a fairly low pass rate when he drives at 26%>
It would be a helpful way facilitate better offense if he can do a better job of driving and kicking- which he has been pretty good at the last few years

Another stat- Ant shoots less than 2 catch and shoot shots per game which is really low number for a shooter like him (48% on these shots and they're all 3s). The offense really needs to generate more of these for him.
He both needs to pass out of his drives more often, and work off the ball better... Which are at odds to be honest, but areas I'd really like to see shifted in the offense

This is where TSJ, in theory, should help. His ability to collapse the defense and find people was a big reason for hope during summer league and the pre-season, as it allows Ant to play off secondary actions generated by Shannon. But unfortunately it's been a poor start for him, minus the OKC and Portland games.

It should also be where Julius helps in theory as well. Creating shots for 3 point shooters has been his best skill as a playmaker for several years now. Why this hasn't translated to better synergy between him and Ant is beyond me, but I believe it was the vision in mind when he was acquired.

Honestly Ant is not very good at moving without the ball and getting himself open on the perimeter

You nailed it, Aussie. Ant is so talented, but he just doesn't move without the ball. We have a lot of willing passers who will find him when he's open (our leading assist guy Ju for example), but Ant want to originate the offense on his own. I can't help but wonder if a new coach could get Ant to move without the ball...we would be lethal in catch and shoot situations.

Here is the 20-game update.

PER - Very much individual box-score driven and rewards volume more than efficiency. Doesn't really account for defense. This tends to reward higher usage offensive players and guys that get lots of counting stats.
WS/48 - Combines individual box-score stats with team performance; tends to reward efficiency as much as volume; tries to apportion team performance to individual players, so a great team defense for example tends to lift all boats (or weight them down if the defense is poor).
VORP - Value over Replacement Player. This extrapolates from box score stats and takes into account actual minutes played, so it helps recognize that starters have to carry a bigger load.
Net Rating - Team points per 100 possessions minus opponent points per 100 possessions while player is on the floor, per NBA.com.

Player (in order of total minutes played) - PER/WS48/VORP/Net Rating
Randle - 22.1/.195/1.2/+7.6
Rudy - 15.5/.151/.3/+9.8
DDV - 14.2/.133/.6/+10.4
Jaden - 14.6/.113/.3/+8.1
Ant - 24.0/.179/1.1/+3.9
Naz - 15.5/.100/0.3/-1.7
Conley - 11.7/.136/.2/-.1
Clark - 9.7/.093/0.0/+5.0
Dilly - 8.1/-.047/-.3/-7.9
Shannon - 7.4/.043/-.1/-17.2

- Randle and Jaden have both regressed a bit since their career-best starts to the season in the first 10 games.

- Ant's doing well in the box-score comprehensive stats - career bests so far - but his net rating is pretty underwhelming for what is supposed to be a top 10-15 player. I think we can put a nail in the coffin of any MVP hopes for Ant. He simply isn't good enough to be in that discussion.

- The other disappointment here is just how awful Shannon and Dillingham have been. Since the last 10-game update, Shannon has improved, but he's gone from god-awful to just awful. Dillingham has just stayed god-awful and has actually regressed a bit from the 10-game mark. He simply isn't improving.

- Clark also regressed a bit, but is still playing as a net positive through 20 games.

- Collectively, the Clark/Dillingham/Shannon trio simply hasn't done enough to make up for the loss of NAW. I had a lot of confidence in this group heading into the offseason, but Shannon and Dillingham especially have been trash. We need that to turn around.

- Interestingly, DDV leads the team in Net Rating, followed by Rudy. I think his ability to space the floor and hustle his ass off to coral defensive rebounds out of his area have really been a boost of late.

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Mon Dec 01, 2025 8:56 am - Randle and Jaden have both regressed a bit since their career-best starts to the season in the first 10 games.

- Ant's doing well in the box-score comprehensive stats - career bests so far - but his net rating is pretty underwhelming for what is supposed to be a top 10-15 player. I think we can put a nail in the coffin of any MVP hopes for Ant. He simply isn't good enough to be in that discussion.

- The other disappointment here is just how awful Shannon and Dillingham have been. Since the last 10-game update, Shannon has improved, but he's gone from god-awful to just awful. Dillingham has just stayed god-awful and has actually regressed a bit from the 10-game mark. He simply isn't improving.

- Clark also regressed a bit, but is still playing as a net positive through 20 games.

- Collectively, the Clark/Dillingham/Shannon trio simply hasn't done enough to make up for the loss of NAW. I had a lot of confidence in this group heading into the offseason, but Shannon and Dillingham especially have been trash. We need that to turn around.

- Interestingly, DDV leads the team in Net Rating, followed by Rudy. I think his ability to space the floor and hustle his ass off to coral defensive rebounds out of his area have really been a boost of late.

I have to imagine DDV's net rating is higher, because he isn't stuck playing with Rob and Shannon very often. The minutes Clark, Rob, Shannon, Naz etc are out there with Ant without Jaden or Rudy are often negative. Some of that is simply missing shots. You see Naz make a few threes when Ant is on the bench, and than miss them when he's playing with Ant. Is it a rhythm thing, or simply just missing in those moments?

rapsuperstar31 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 01, 2025 9:32 am

Q-is-here wrote: ↑Mon Dec 01, 2025 8:56 am - Randle and Jaden have both regressed a bit since their career-best starts to the season in the first 10 games.

- Ant's doing well in the box-score comprehensive stats - career bests so far - but his net rating is pretty underwhelming for what is supposed to be a top 10-15 player. I think we can put a nail in the coffin of any MVP hopes for Ant. He simply isn't good enough to be in that discussion.

- The other disappointment here is just how awful Shannon and Dillingham have been. Since the last 10-game update, Shannon has improved, but he's gone from god-awful to just awful. Dillingham has just stayed god-awful and has actually regressed a bit from the 10-game mark. He simply isn't improving.

- Clark also regressed a bit, but is still playing as a net positive through 20 games.

- Collectively, the Clark/Dillingham/Shannon trio simply hasn't done enough to make up for the loss of NAW. I had a lot of confidence in this group heading into the offseason, but Shannon and Dillingham especially have been trash. We need that to turn around.

- Interestingly, DDV leads the team in Net Rating, followed by Rudy. I think his ability to space the floor and hustle his ass off to coral defensive rebounds out of his area have really been a boost of late.

I have to imagine DDV's net rating is higher, because he isn't stuck playing with Rob and Shannon very often. The minutes Clark, Rob, Shannon, Naz etc are out there with Ant without Jaden or Rudy are often negative. Some of that is simply missing shots. You see Naz make a few threes when Ant is on the bench, and than miss them when he's playing with Ant. Is it a rhythm thing, or simply just missing in those moments?

He's played with Dillingham the 4th most, with Randle, Clark, Ant, and Shannon all playing fewer minutes with Dilly. So he's right in the middle of the pack in terms of how much he's played with Dillingham on the court. He's played with Shannon the 8th most, so he's usually on the bench when Shannon is in the game.

Unsurprisingly, he's played the most minutes with Rudy, Randle, Jaden, and Ant, which makes sense since that's the starting lineup.

One thing I've seen elsewhere (not as much on this forum) is DDV still being referred to as the starting PG, including on Dane's podcast. He's not! Ant is the PG and Randle is the secondary play maker. DDV is mostly being utilized how he should be, which is as a floor spacer and movement shooter.