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Re: Point Guard Options

Posted: Fri Jan 16, 2026 10:35 am
by rapsuperstar31
I didn't know where to put this, so I'll post it here.

https://www.si.com/nba/timberwolves/ons ... -situation

Things haven't gone to plan for Timberwolves guard Rob Dillingham since he was taken with the eighth overall pick in the 2024 draft. He spent most of his rookie season outside of Minnesota's rotation, and that's where he currently finds himself midway through his second year.

It's an interesting situation because while Dillingham has shown some occasional flashes, he's mostly struggled to produce in the NBA. His career shooting percentage is 40 and his assist-to-turnover ratio is about 1.8 to 1. He hasn't shown enough in his limited minutes to earn a larger role, but the other side of the coin is that he also hasn't played enough to really develop.

On Wednesday, in an interview with KFAN's Dan Barreiro, Timberwolves assistant coach Micah Nori opened up about where things stand with Dillingham right now and the difficult context that he's found himself in since he was drafted. Here's his entire (rather long) answer.

"No. 1, Rob's still very, very young, as we know," Nori said. "Being around this for as long as I have and talking with people, a lot of times point guard's very difficult to play in the NBA, especially at a young age and especially a guy (who did) one year in college. Most people say that it takes three years, minimum, in the NBA to get a good feel of playing the point guard position.

"And I think the one thing that's been difficult for Rob is that Rob has been a scorer from the time he was eight, nine years old. And that is fine. What we're trying to help him do and what he's trying to do is become more of a point guard, which is break the paint, penetrate, and then pass it out and that type of thing. One thing that has been an adjustment for him is that in the NBA, you've got taller, longer, more athletic guys at every position. As a smaller guard, calling it what it is, it takes them a little bit longer to find their niche, to be able to navigate all the length and the height in the paint and get to his spots.

"And then defensively, I will give him credit for sure, he has competed at a high level. It is a matchup league. Everybody basically looks down and says 'OK, what guy do we want to attack defensively?' And because of Rob's stature, sometimes they will go at him. All that has been a learning curve.

"So for him, as he's trying to take all that information and then do it on the fly at the highest level with a team that has championship aspirations, that's where it's difficult. If Rob was the eighth pick in Washington or the eighth pick in Charlotte, and no offense to those teams, but if you could just run him out there every single night and really not care about the outcome or the result, you'd have a different story, as opposed to a team that has been to the Western Conference Finals twice and trying to take that next step.

"He's got a tough job trying to do that, and he's under that microscope. You put him in for games and people are like 'Wow, he doesn't get that much run here or there,' but that's because we are literally trying to win every single game. It's very difficult to win and develop (young players).

"I'm a Rob Dillingham fan. I think by no means is he on the outs, it's just a matter of we're trying to win games, Bones (Hyland) has been playing very, very well, and you're gonna have growing pains. But again, (he's) a kid that's played one year in college and is trying to play point guard in the best league in the world. He's had to change his game a little bit, and that's difficult."

All of that from Nori makes sense and feels like it sums up the situation accurately. The issue that if Dillingham is trying to change his game and adjust to being a smaller point guard in the NBA, it's hard to do that without actually playing and having a longer leash to make mistakes and learn and grow. And he just isn't getting that opportunity in Minnesota. It wouldn't help with adjusting to the NBA level of competition, but it does seem fair to question why Dillingham hasn't gotten an extended opportunity to go play for Iowa in the G League and build back some confidence there.

Ultimately, it's tough to see his role with the Wolves changing anytime soon, given Hyland's emergence and the lack of trust Chris Finch seems to have in Dillingham. He's only 21 years old, but it's already looking like Tim Connelly and the Timberwolves whiffed when they traded up to acquire him.

What Dillingham might need to turn his NBA career around is to be traded to a non-contending team where he'd have more of an opportunity to play freely and develop. As the Wolves look for possible additions to their backcourt prior to the deadline, Dillingham feels like a player who could end up going in the package they send out. If he remains on Minnesota's roster, his chance to earn a bigger role will likely continue to wait.

Re: Point Guard Options

Posted: Sun Jan 18, 2026 11:06 am
by Q-is-here
Collin Sexton Deep Dive:

Career Per 36 Minutes Stats: 22.7 pts, 3.4 rebs, 4.6 assts, 2.9 TOs, 1.0 stls, 47%FG/39%3pt/84%FT

This year's Per 36 Minute Stats: 22.8 pts, 3.1 rebs, 6.2 assts, 3.5 TOs, 1.2 stls, 49%FG/39%3pt/87%FT

This year's Expected Plus-Minus percentiles: Offensive EPM = 77th percentile; Defensive EPM = 22nd Percentile

Contract expires after this season - $18.9M this year

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

- Has consistently played on losing teams, so he's never even been in the playoffs in seven seasons.

- Can "break the paint" better than Mike, Bones or DDV. 25% of his field goal attempts in his career have come from 0-3 feet and he's averaging over 6 FTAs per 36 minutes this season (Career 5.3).

- Not a great Assist to TO ratio compared to Mike and Bones.

- Extremely consistent shooting and scoring numbers throughout his career. Very low variability on his FG, 3PT, and FT percentages over the past four seasons with a 60 TS%, which is good.

- Defense is his main weakness, but is known to hustle and try really hard on that end (like we've seen from Bones and Dilly).

- Coby White is a better comparison for him than Monk since Coby is also able to get into the paint, draw some fouls, and has been a starter for a good portion of his career. Monk has a bit less of a complete offensive package compared to Coby and Collin and has almost exclusively been a bench player his entire career.

- Coby's EPM info: Offensive EPM = 79th percentile, Defensive EPM = 19th percentile

- Monk's EPM info: Offensive EPM = 48th percentile, Defensive EPM = 5th percentile

Re: Point Guard Options

Posted: Sun Jan 18, 2026 11:13 am
by 60WinTim
Thanks, Q!

But here is the question, if it's not too much of hassle to pull up. What are EPM's for the guy(s) that might be replaced off the bench? Namely, Bones, Mike and Clark. (It might also be interesting to see how they stack up with DDV and ANT.)

Re: Point Guard Options

Posted: Sun Jan 18, 2026 12:06 pm
by Q-is-here
60WinTim wrote: Sun Jan 18, 2026 11:13 am Thanks, Q!

But here is the question, if it's not too much of hassle to pull up. What are EPM's for the guy(s) that might be replaced off the bench? Namely, Bones, Mike and Clark. (It might also be interesting to see how they stack up with DDV and ANT.)
Mike - Off EPM = 37th percentile, Def EPM = 11th

Bones - Off EPM = 81st, Def EPM = 42nd

DDV - Off EPM = 88th, Def EPM = 80th

Keep in mind that Bones plays only 14 MPG and has been on the court for a couple of very favorable blowouts. And he's always out there right at the start of the 2nd and 4th quarters, when opposing teams usually have their best one or two players on the bench.

Re: Point Guard Options

Posted: Sun Jan 18, 2026 7:09 pm
by Lipoli390
Nice post, Q. I’m a big Sexton fan. He’s a truly dynamic offensive player who, as you noted, has been consistently very good on that end of the court. He has a far better career offensive rating than Coby on SM and a much more consistently good three-point shot. Trading for Coby would be a big mistake in my view. Bringing in Sexton is something I’d like to see in theory but the problem is matching his $18 million salary. It means we’d have to trade a player who we should not be giving up for Sexton.

It makes a lot more sense to acquire one of the two Jones brothers as I noted in another post. They are both far better true PGs/facilitators than either Coby or Sexton. I think Tre is the better of the two Jones brothers and he’s also four years younger, 26 v. 30. But Tre doesn’t bring any three-point shooting while Tyus does. Both are terrific at protecting the ball and running the offense. Both are decent defenders and can also score. The key is that both have contracts that the Wolves could easily match without giving up any significant current contributors. Conley straight up for Tyus would work. We could add Miller and it would still work. We could deal Rob and Miller for Tre and one of several bench players. I ran it through the trade machine a week ago and came up with a couple reasonable scenarios. If it were up to me, I’d swap Conley for Tyus and keep Rob for future development as our PG of the future or as a trade chip after he’s build up his value.

Re: Point Guard Options

Posted: Sun Jan 18, 2026 7:30 pm
by Lipoli390
rapsuperstar31 wrote: Fri Jan 16, 2026 10:35 am I didn't know where to put this, so I'll post it here.

https://www.si.com/nba/timberwolves/ons ... -situation

Things haven't gone to plan for Timberwolves guard Rob Dillingham since he was taken with the eighth overall pick in the 2024 draft. He spent most of his rookie season outside of Minnesota's rotation, and that's where he currently finds himself midway through his second year.

It's an interesting situation because while Dillingham has shown some occasional flashes, he's mostly struggled to produce in the NBA. His career shooting percentage is 40 and his assist-to-turnover ratio is about 1.8 to 1. He hasn't shown enough in his limited minutes to earn a larger role, but the other side of the coin is that he also hasn't played enough to really develop.

On Wednesday, in an interview with KFAN's Dan Barreiro, Timberwolves assistant coach Micah Nori opened up about where things stand with Dillingham right now and the difficult context that he's found himself in since he was drafted. Here's his entire (rather long) answer.

"No. 1, Rob's still very, very young, as we know," Nori said. "Being around this for as long as I have and talking with people, a lot of times point guard's very difficult to play in the NBA, especially at a young age and especially a guy (who did) one year in college. Most people say that it takes three years, minimum, in the NBA to get a good feel of playing the point guard position.

"And I think the one thing that's been difficult for Rob is that Rob has been a scorer from the time he was eight, nine years old. And that is fine. What we're trying to help him do and what he's trying to do is become more of a point guard, which is break the paint, penetrate, and then pass it out and that type of thing. One thing that has been an adjustment for him is that in the NBA, you've got taller, longer, more athletic guys at every position. As a smaller guard, calling it what it is, it takes them a little bit longer to find their niche, to be able to navigate all the length and the height in the paint and get to his spots.

"And then defensively, I will give him credit for sure, he has competed at a high level. It is a matchup league. Everybody basically looks down and says 'OK, what guy do we want to attack defensively?' And because of Rob's stature, sometimes they will go at him. All that has been a learning curve.

"So for him, as he's trying to take all that information and then do it on the fly at the highest level with a team that has championship aspirations, that's where it's difficult. If Rob was the eighth pick in Washington or the eighth pick in Charlotte, and no offense to those teams, but if you could just run him out there every single night and really not care about the outcome or the result, you'd have a different story, as opposed to a team that has been to the Western Conference Finals twice and trying to take that next step.

"He's got a tough job trying to do that, and he's under that microscope. You put him in for games and people are like 'Wow, he doesn't get that much run here or there,' but that's because we are literally trying to win every single game. It's very difficult to win and develop (young players).

"I'm a Rob Dillingham fan. I think by no means is he on the outs, it's just a matter of we're trying to win games, Bones (Hyland) has been playing very, very well, and you're gonna have growing pains. But again, (he's) a kid that's played one year in college and is trying to play point guard in the best league in the world. He's had to change his game a little bit, and that's difficult."

All of that from Nori makes sense and feels like it sums up the situation accurately. The issue that if Dillingham is trying to change his game and adjust to being a smaller point guard in the NBA, it's hard to do that without actually playing and having a longer leash to make mistakes and learn and grow. And he just isn't getting that opportunity in Minnesota. It wouldn't help with adjusting to the NBA level of competition, but it does seem fair to question why Dillingham hasn't gotten an extended opportunity to go play for Iowa in the G League and build back some confidence there.

Ultimately, it's tough to see his role with the Wolves changing anytime soon, given Hyland's emergence and the lack of trust Chris Finch seems to have in Dillingham. He's only 21 years old, but it's already looking like Tim Connelly and the Timberwolves whiffed when they traded up to acquire him.

What Dillingham might need to turn his NBA career around is to be traded to a non-contending team where he'd have more of an opportunity to play freely and develop. As the Wolves look for possible additions to their backcourt prior to the deadline, Dillingham feels like a player who could end up going in the package they send out. If he remains on Minnesota's roster, his chance to earn a bigger role will likely continue to wait.
Thanks for the summary, Rap. It all makes sense and it tracks Finch’s comment at the stakeholder meeting when he noted the challenge Rob faces in being used to playing one way and now being asked to play another. But I have to say I’m deeply troubled by what we’re hearing from Finch and Nori. Everything they’re saying about Rob were things our front office and coaching staff (who are involved in draft decisions) already knew when TC gave up one of our few remaining future draft assets to trade up for Dilly. And remember, there were a lot of talented PGs in that draft who were taken after #8. Our front office staff obviously had their sites set on Dilly after watching countless hours of film, seeing him live, studying his stats, etc. They knew his size. They knew how he played and liked to play. They knew everything you could possibly know about Dilly before drafting him — far, far more than any of us knew then or even know now. And of course, they knew the we’d be competing for a championship.

What does it tell us about the “competence” of our organization if the Wolves end up trading Rob this year as a throw-in for a one-year rental like Coby or Sexton or a perennial 30-year old backup like Tyus Jones? I understand that whiffing on first round picks goes with the territory in the NBA. But the Wolves traded way up to get him with multiple other talented and bigger PGs available in the draft. Moreover, the critique we’re hearing from the Wolves organization to explain what’s going on with Dilly consists of things that are NOT new or surprising — his size, his lack of experience (1 year college), his style of play (shooter, not facilitator).

If this pick is a whiff and we end up trading Rob for the likes of what we’re speculating about, that’s not a minor matter; it’s a major black mark on a front office that continues to live primarily off the talent inherited from prior front office regimes - Ant, Jaden, Naz from Rosas; Towns from Flip who TC turned into Donte and Randle. TC had to trade Towns because of the salary situation created by the Rudy acquisition. TC’s only significant contribution was getting Rudy, but he had to trade more than half of the 7-year 1st round draft stock he inherited along with a bunch of productive players. I’m not ready to proclaim TC’s regime a failure, but the deeper you look the less impressive this regime has been and if we end up getting nothing more than we’ve gotten so far from Minott, Miller, Rob, Shannon or Clark, that’s a serious indictment of TC. And it looks especially bad when you listen to the explanations about Rob’s situation to which any reasonable observer would respond by saying “duh”!!

Re: Point Guard Options

Posted: Sun Jan 18, 2026 8:37 pm
by Q-is-here
Lipoli390 wrote: Sun Jan 18, 2026 7:09 pm Nice post, Q. I’m a big Sexton fan. He’s a truly dynamic offensive player who, as you noted, has been consistently very good on that end of the court. He has a far better career offensive rating than Coby on SM and a much more consistently good three-point shot. Trading for Coby would be a big mistake in my view. Bringing in Sexton is something I’d like to see in theory but the problem is matching his $18 million salary. It means we’d have to trade a player who we should not be giving up for Sexton.

It makes a lot more sense to acquire one of the two Jones brothers as I noted in another post. They are both far better true PGs/facilitators than either Coby or Sexton. I think Tre is the better of the two Jones brothers and he’s also four years younger, 26 v. 30. But Tre doesn’t bring any three-point shooting while Tyus does. Both are terrific at protecting the ball and running the offense. Both are decent defenders and can also score. The key is that both have contracts that the Wolves could easily match without giving up any significant current contributors. Conley straight up for Tyus would work. We could add Miller and it would still work. We could deal Rob and Miller for Tre and one of several bench players. I ran it through the trade machine a week ago and came up with a couple reasonable scenarios. If it were up to me, I’d swap Conley for Tyus and keep Rob for future development as our PG of the future or as a trade chip after he’s build up his value.
The Jones brothers are in the "Vet Game Manager" list I originally posted and indeed would be cheaper than the "shooter/scorer" PG candidates. Tyus has been really struggling this year whereas Tre seems to be playing pretty well.

A few weeks ago I was on board with getting the vet game manager or point of attack defender archetype for point guard, but I've come around to the idea that we need another shot creator. I view Sexton or Coby as basically a rich man's version of Bones.

To your point, that would go against what Connelly said at the stakeholders meeting, but I'm pretty sure he didn't make any hard promises there!

Re: Point Guard Options

Posted: Sun Jan 18, 2026 8:41 pm
by Sundog
Lip, I don’t understand how you can think Connelly has been anything but a fantastic GM for the Wolves:
- Won the trade for Gobert, for sure
- Got the Wolves off of D’Lo for Conley, NAW and 3 2nd round picks
- Got off that monstrous KAT contract and turned that into Randle/Dante, two key players for one and and a much better financial outcome for the Wolves

It’s hard to argue with two consecutive Western Conference Finals, and hot in the running for a deep run again this year.

Yeah, Dillingham may or may not be a first round whiff, but that goes with the territory. Rosas drafted Culver, if you recall.

Re: Point Guard Options

Posted: Mon Jan 19, 2026 1:36 am
by Lipoli390
Sundog wrote: Sun Jan 18, 2026 8:41 pm Lip, I don’t understand how you can think Connelly has been anything but a fantastic GM for the Wolves:
- Won the trade for Gobert, for sure
- Got the Wolves off of D’Lo for Conley, NAW and 3 2nd round picks
- Got off that monstrous KAT contract and turned that into Randle/Dante, two key players for one and and a much better financial outcome for the Wolves

It’s hard to argue with two consecutive Western Conference Finals, and hot in the running for a deep run again this year.

Yeah, Dillingham may or may not be a first round whiff, but that goes with the territory. Rosas drafted Culver, if you recall.
Those moves you identified would be meaningless without Ant, Jaden and Naz. The Rudy acquisition has worked out but it created a cap situation that required the Towns deal, which was a good one. I’m not proclaiming TC a failure but the jury is out on him. He did not build this team’s core — Rosas did that with Ant, Jaden and Naz. Flip provided KAT. TC complemented those guys by acquiring Rudy, NAW and Conley and he landed on his feat dealing KAT for Randle and Donte. That’s not terrible, but it’s not great. I’m not making a judgment based on numbers — i.e., counting mistakes like Culver or Moore. I’m looking at the big picture, which tells us that without Ant and Jaden (I also think Naz) this is a lottery team. Against that backdrop, the Culver pick doesn’t matter.

I actually think Dilly, Shannon and Clark will all end up good to very good NBA players. Minott seems to be turning out pretty good now that he’s getting meaningful, consistent minutes. I honestly don’t think the issue is TC’s draft decisions, which I’ve considered very good except for Moore. I think the issue is the coaching staff’s poor use of the talent he’s drafted. TC is obviously allowing it to happen and I get the desire to focus on winning along with the concern that the less experienced draftees might cost the team some games as they learn but I think it’s a imperative to play and develop the players we draft unless the vets ahead of them are stellar — which is not how I’d characterize the play of Conley or Bones this season. And I just don’t buy this “can’t play the young guys because we have to win every game” line. The Celtics are competing for 1st place in the East. Yet, Garza and Minott have played the vast majority of games so far this season, averaging 16.5 and 17.6 minutes respectively — up from the around 6 minutes per game they were getting with the Wolves last season. The only difference between those two guys this season versus last is that now they’re getting regular, meaningful minutes nearly every game. Houston is competing with us in the West and is giving Reed Sheppard over 20 minutes per game after a rookie season that was statistically slightly worse than Rob’s.

As for Dilly, the problem is that all the reasons our coaches have given for not playing him are things the whole world knew when they traded up for him — small size, shooter not playmaker, very young/inexperienced, the Wolves focused on winning now. I find that disturbing. And 11 sporadic, inconsistent minutes per game just doesn’t cut it for a guy TC trade up to get at #8. We can’t possibly know what we have in him with that sort of usage and he certainly won’t develop. None of that is directly TC’s fault but this is his team and he’s ultimately responsible for the assessment and development of the players he drafts - especially those he trades up to get as high as #8. TC continues to profess his love for Finch and I get that. But there’s too much of a disconnect between TC’s draft decisions and how the head coach he inherited from Rosas is using those picks.

Re: Point Guard Options

Posted: Mon Jan 19, 2026 1:51 am
by Lipoli390
Q-is-here wrote: Sun Jan 18, 2026 8:37 pm
Lipoli390 wrote: Sun Jan 18, 2026 7:09 pm Nice post, Q. I’m a big Sexton fan. He’s a truly dynamic offensive player who, as you noted, has been consistently very good on that end of the court. He has a far better career offensive rating than Coby on SM and a much more consistently good three-point shot. Trading for Coby would be a big mistake in my view. Bringing in Sexton is something I’d like to see in theory but the problem is matching his $18 million salary. It means we’d have to trade a player who we should not be giving up for Sexton.

It makes a lot more sense to acquire one of the two Jones brothers as I noted in another post. They are both far better true PGs/facilitators than either Coby or Sexton. I think Tre is the better of the two Jones brothers and he’s also four years younger, 26 v. 30. But Tre doesn’t bring any three-point shooting while Tyus does. Both are terrific at protecting the ball and running the offense. Both are decent defenders and can also score. The key is that both have contracts that the Wolves could easily match without giving up any significant current contributors. Conley straight up for Tyus would work. We could add Miller and it would still work. We could deal Rob and Miller for Tre and one of several bench players. I ran it through the trade machine a week ago and came up with a couple reasonable scenarios. If it were up to me, I’d swap Conley for Tyus and keep Rob for future development as our PG of the future or as a trade chip after he’s build up his value.
The Jones brothers are in the "Vet Game Manager" list I originally posted and indeed would be cheaper than the "shooter/scorer" PG candidates. Tyus has been really struggling this year whereas Tre seems to be playing pretty well.

A few weeks ago I was on board with getting the vet game manager or point of attack defender archetype for point guard, but I've come around to the idea that we need another shot creator. I view Sexton or Coby as basically a rich man's version of Bones.

To your point, that would go against what Connelly said at the stakeholders meeting, but I'm pretty sure he didn't make any hard promises there!
I think you’ve framed the issue well. Do we need a game manager/point of attack defender or another shot creator? That’s a fair question and can see both sides. I remain aligned with what TC told us - that our main need is for a game manager/defender who can do what Mike Conley can no longer do at a high enough level and on a consistent basis. But I agree that what TC told us doesn’t necessarily mean that’s what he’l do.

I just keep coming back to the Jones brothers as our best bet to improve this already very good team down the stretch. One thing I really like about both Tyus and Tre is that they can both score and aren’t exclusively game manager PGs. You’re right that Tyus is having a terrible season, which is why I think we can get him without giving up much. I don’t think that Tyus, at age 30, is washed up. I just think he needs a change in scenery and i think he’d thrive coming back home and playing with the talent on this team. I think Tre is better (also younger), but he’s not good from beyond the arc and I think it would take more to get him.

I can see the value is getting another shot creator. In that category I really like Sexton. But I just don’t see how we get him or Coby for that matter given their salaries. It think it would be nuts to give up Naz, Randle or Donte for either one. Maybe there’s a shot creator better than Bones at a salary level close to Conley’s or Dilly’s. I don’t know. So I think any deal will likely have to default to a game-manager type even if we’d benefit more from getting another shot creator.