Minnesota Sports Forum

khans2k5 wrote:

CoolBreeze44 wrote:Go big or don't go at all. Middling free agent contracts on middling players accomplishes nothing. Go out and get an impact guy, even if he's the only player you get.

That's just not true. Most of the league is middling role players and their team success is dependent on how good their best players are and how good their supporting cast is. A lot of these guys are on very reasonable deals that aren't cheap either. Joe Johnson, Burks, Favors, Hill, Lou Williams, Crowder, Bradley, Tristan Thompson, JR Smith, PJ Tucker, Patrick Patterson, Gortat, Markieff Morris, Iggy, Danny Green, Pau, Ariza, Eric Gordon, Jamal Crawford, JJ Reddick, Austin Rivers and those are just guys doing it for the top playoff teams. You either believe in Towns and Wiggins and you build around them with the support pieces they need which requires multiple 7-18 million dollar support pieces or you pay for another star if you can convince one to come here which won't happen. It's called quality depth and it's a major factor in why teams like the Cavs and Warrior win titles (Iggy's series MVP with Bogut playing a big factor and TT and Delly playing big minutes the next year).

Correct me if I'm wrong cool but I think that is what he is saying we need to go out and get those above average role players like you listed above. Like the gallo, chandler, green, tucker types in this free agent class. And hope we can develop our young players of Dunn, draft pick, tyus, Aldrich (understand he is not young) to fill roles. I think cool was saying the middling guys are like Thabo, luc, rush players of the world

Q12543 wrote:

BloopOracle wrote:Yeah if only Thibs put in his garbage bench we would have won more games, are we seriously going to try and play the angle that Tom was holding back some incredible bench again!? Give me a break our record would have been almost exactly the same, our core would be rested sure but also even worse with their defensive rotations with less playing time.

Rush was was starting on a bad team after playing bench minutes for the greatest regular season team in history, Hill played a total of 15 minutes throughout a 7 game playoff series and about the same the last 7 games of the season sans the meaningless finale, he's a stopgap this is painfully obvious. Aldrich barely played as our centers stayed healthy. Mystery solved

Do I think Thibs played his starters too much? Yes absolutely especially Wiggins but let's stop this nonsense that it somehow affected our record negatively.

- I think LST's point is less about "holding back" an incredible bench and more about not giving the starters enough rest. Rush, Aldrich, and Hill were all credible (not incredible) rotation players on winning teams the prior season. Surely playing one or two of them an extra minute or two per game wouldn't have killed us.

- Thibs' bark was bigger than his bite when it came to his "big three". While he would cajole and bark all game at them, he never actually sat them down when defensive lapses took place. Thus, there were no real consequences. Instead, he rode them for big minutes and it's not silly to suggest that may be, just may be, tired legs and poor defensive habits helped tank our team in many 2nd half melt downs.

In my opinion, LST's theory is credible. But it is still just a theory.

I agree...just a theory, and it can't be proven. But here's some things we know are true:

1) Thibs played his starters more than any other coach in the league

2) The Wolves almost set a record for most double digit leads resulting in losses, surpassed only by a hapless Knicks team

3) The Thibs-led Wolves went 3-13 in their final 16 games; the Mitchell-led Wolves went 8-8.

4) Despite being much maligned on this board and little used by Thibs, the Wolves bench was actually fairly decent in staying with the opponent as measured by plus/minus. In fact, four of the five best gross plus/minus totals were posted by reserves (only Gorgui cracked the top five).

Those are facts. Here are some non-provable observations and theories:

1) The Wolves just looked more tired than their opponents at the end of games, and were unable to get defensive stops on a consistent basis.

2) The Wolves looked more tired than almost all their opponents at the end of the season.

3) Starters play better when they are given adequate rest during a game, and struggle with their shot and defense when they are not.

4) Bench players play better when they are given consistent, sufficient playing time. (While I have this in the "theory" category, almost any NBA reserve will tell you this is true. And we also know that Hill, Rush and Aldrich all played better the previous year when given more minutes.

You add these facts and theories together, and it's pretty difficult to conclude that Thibs' refusal to play his bench anywhere near the league average was a successful strategy.

kekgeek1 wrote:

khans2k5 wrote:

CoolBreeze44 wrote:Go big or don't go at all. Middling free agent contracts on middling players accomplishes nothing. Go out and get an impact guy, even if he's the only player you get.

That's just not true. Most of the league is middling role players and their team success is dependent on how good their best players are and how good their supporting cast is. A lot of these guys are on very reasonable deals that aren't cheap either. Joe Johnson, Burks, Favors, Hill, Lou Williams, Crowder, Bradley, Tristan Thompson, JR Smith, PJ Tucker, Patrick Patterson, Gortat, Markieff Morris, Iggy, Danny Green, Pau, Ariza, Eric Gordon, Jamal Crawford, JJ Reddick, Austin Rivers and those are just guys doing it for the top playoff teams. You either believe in Towns and Wiggins and you build around them with the support pieces they need which requires multiple 7-18 million dollar support pieces or you pay for another star if you can convince one to come here which won't happen. It's called quality depth and it's a major factor in why teams like the Cavs and Warrior win titles (Iggy's series MVP with Bogut playing a big factor and TT and Delly playing big minutes the next year).

Correct me if I'm wrong cool but I think that is what he is saying we need to go out and get those above average role players like you listed above. Like the gallo, chandler, green, tucker types in this free agent class. And hope we can develop our young players of Dunn, draft pick, tyus, Aldrich (understand he is not young) to fill roles. I think cool was saying the middling guys are like Thabo, luc, rush players of the world

I see his post as go out and get a Millsap or don't bother. High end starter for big money. Basically 20+ million dollar guys or less than 10.

"You add these facts and theories together, and it's pretty difficult to conclude that Thibs' refusal to play his bench anywhere near the league average was a successful strategy."

I don't think either strategy would be sucessful that's the thing, we would lose either way. Either get worn out which Thibs chose or let your bench take away any chance of winning by the time he gets our youing stars back on the court like you wanted.

We weren't winning no matter what lineup or minutes distrubution Thibs was using this year after he didn't spend our cap and our youngs didn't progress on defense as much as we had hoped. It comes down to do you think Thibs should sit his starters because they don't make the right defensive plays and assume that will motivate them and they will hustle more, or should Thibs keep playing them because their mistakes are more mental and reps woud be the key, how much is it of each? Thibs knows the answer to that question better than any of us do.

khans2k5 wrote:

CoolBreeze44 wrote:Go big or don't go at all. Middling free agent contracts on middling players accomplishes nothing. Go out and get an impact guy, even if he's the only player you get.

That's just not true. Most of the league is middling role players and their team success is dependent on how good their best players are and how good their supporting cast is. A lot of these guys are on very reasonable deals that aren't cheap either. Joe Johnson, Burks, Favors, Hill, Lou Williams, Crowder, Bradley, Tristan Thompson, JR Smith, PJ Tucker, Patrick Patterson, Gortat, Markieff Morris, Iggy, Danny Green, Pau, Ariza, Eric Gordon, Jamal Crawford, JJ Reddick, Austin Rivers and those are just guys doing it for the top playoff teams. You either believe in Towns and Wiggins and you build around them with the support pieces they need which requires multiple 7-18 million dollar support pieces or you pay for another star if you can convince one to come here which won't happen. It's called quality depth and it's a major factor in why teams like the Cavs and Warrior win titles (Iggy's series MVP with Bogut playing a big factor and TT and Delly playing big minutes the next year).

Look at the best team in basketball. You have your 4 high paid guys, and then a bunch of low cost accessories. You can get all the middle range contracts you want, and you will fail. And you will take away all your flexibility. The best strategy is to pay the guys who impact the standings, and go cheap on the rest.

My post on the D level FAs said signing any of those guys isn't going to keep you from signing an impact player. It's not and just one or another you can have both. This team I'st just one Ibaka or Millsap etc away it needs some other vet depth too. The good teams find these cheap players and get a lot out of them. There is no reason the Wolves shouldn't looking to find guys like that. Guys like Luc Dedmon Ian Clark etc signed for not much and were key contributors on good teams.

I agree this team likely is gonna have to go out and spend some decent money on somebody that you know can play at least as a top rotation guy. I think Thibs and Layden get that and I also think they have a better idea of what they need and want this year than last spending a whole season with the guys on the roster etc.

CoolBreeze44 wrote:

khans2k5 wrote:

CoolBreeze44 wrote:Go big or don't go at all. Middling free agent contracts on middling players accomplishes nothing. Go out and get an impact guy, even if he's the only player you get.

That's just not true. Most of the league is middling role players and their team success is dependent on how good their best players are and how good their supporting cast is. A lot of these guys are on very reasonable deals that aren't cheap either. Joe Johnson, Burks, Favors, Hill, Lou Williams, Crowder, Bradley, Tristan Thompson, JR Smith, PJ Tucker, Patrick Patterson, Gortat, Markieff Morris, Iggy, Danny Green, Pau, Ariza, Eric Gordon, Jamal Crawford, JJ Reddick, Austin Rivers and those are just guys doing it for the top playoff teams. You either believe in Towns and Wiggins and you build around them with the support pieces they need which requires multiple 7-18 million dollar support pieces or you pay for another star if you can convince one to come here which won't happen. It's called quality depth and it's a major factor in why teams like the Cavs and Warrior win titles (Iggy's series MVP with Bogut playing a big factor and TT and Delly playing big minutes the next year).

Look at the best team in basketball. You have your 4 high paid guys, and then a bunch of low cost accessories. You can get all the middle range contracts you want, and you will fail. And you will take away all your flexibility. The best strategy is to pay the guys who impact the standings, and go cheap on the rest.

The Warriors capitalized on a once in a lifetime chance. The stars perfectly aligned for them. Steph took a discount because of injuries and they got Klay and Draymond on mini-maxes under the old CBA before the TV money came in. We don't have that opportunity. That's just not realistic to build a team. Look at the Spurs. Second best team in the league and they have multiple guys like Danny Green, Tony Parker, Manu and Pau on sub 20 million, but greater than 10 million dollar deals. They account for over $50 million for 4 key veteran players around Lamarcus and Kawhi. The Cavs have Shumpert, JR, and TT making 9.6, 12.8 and 15.3 million around their big 3 and they won the title last year. Saying build like the Warriors or don't bother is just dumb. Nobody else is going to be able to do something like that for a very long time if ever again because of the way max players will now get paid and the fact that there is only so much more money this sport can get from TV.

I agree with Cool that in an ideal situation, you have your 3 or 4 main horses that are either all-around stars or elite role players, then surround them with specialists whose roles are defined fairly narrowly and come cheaply.

So let's say no draft day trade materializes that makes sense for us and in free agency we are unable to land a Milsap or Ibaka. Then what? Then it's on to Plan B and that means, yes, going out and offering some middling deals for middling players like Taj Gibson, PJ Tucker, James Johnson, etc. We desperately need vets on this team a cut above the ones we had this past season and that's going to cost us some money.

Q12543 wrote:I agree with Cool that in an ideal situation, you have your 3 or 4 main horses that are either all-around stars or elite role players, then surround them with specialists whose roles are defined fairly narrowly and come cheaply.

So let's say no draft day trade materializes that makes sense for us and in free agency we are unable to land a Milsap or Ibaka. Then what? Then it's on to Plan B and that means, yes, going out and offering some middling deals for middling players like Taj Gibson, PJ Tucker, James Johnson, etc. We desperately need vets on this team a cut above the ones we had this past season and that's going to cost us some money.

Exactly, don't take the "go home" comment so literally Khans. Of course you do the best you can given your resources. But what we don't want is what we had just a few years ago - Kevin Love and then a bunch of Corey Brewers, Kevin Martins, and Chase Budinger's with lengthy hard to move contracts ruining your flexibility.

BloopOracle wrote:"You add these facts and theories together, and it's pretty difficult to conclude that Thibs' refusal to play his bench anywhere near the league average was a successful strategy."

I don't think either strategy would be sucessful that's the thing, we would lose either way. Either get worn out which Thibs chose or let your bench take away any chance of winning by the time he gets our youing stars back on the court like you wanted.

We weren't winning no matter what lineup or minutes distrubution Thibs was using this year after he didn't spend our cap and our youngs didn't progress on defense as much as we had hoped. It comes down to do you think Thibs should sit his starters because they don't make the right defensive plays and assume that will motivate them and they will hustle more, or should Thibs keep playing them because their mistakes are more mental and reps woud be the key, how much is it of each? Thibs knows the answer to that question better than any of us do.

Bottom line is we under-performed Vegas by 10 games. I don't believe another team did worse than that. The fact we hardly moved the needle defensively versus the Sam Mitchell coached squad is an embarrassment for Thibs. Never has he been part of an organization, including his first stint with Minnesota as a young assistant, that was so bad on defense. He was given the keys to the kingdom and ultimately deserves his fair share of blame for the poor showing.

We really don't know if the changes LST suggests would have been useless or fruitful. But it's not a stretch to say that fresher legs and better defensive discipline down the stretch would have resulted in fewer colossal collapses.