Minnesota Sports Forum

JasonIsDaMan wrote:

WolvesFan21 wrote:

lipoli390 wrote:

Camden wrote:Ha! I empathize with the feelings you're having, Lip, and I wouldn't have made this trade either. That needs to be very clear and on the record.

While the future salary cap issues are extreme with Rudy Gobert on the payroll, and the war chest of assets is missing a handful of first-round picks, I truly believe that the upcoming season of Timberwolves basketball will be one of the best and most successful in franchise history -- a low bar to exceed, no doubt. The 2022-23 roster looks like the best and most talented that we've seen in a long time, and maybe ever. I can get excited about that even though I'm aware of what was given up.

In terms of value, I think Minnesota gave up too much for Gobert. Four first-round picks plus the rights to 2022 first-rounder, Walker Kessler, and more is a bitter pill to swallow. I mentioned that the quantity of firsts outgoing for Minnesota would likely have been lower had they been willing to include Jaden McDaniels in their package. That has essentially been confirmed by The Athletic. That's a mighty big detail in all of this and it places even more importance on his player development.

However, Gobert is an elite player in the NBA even though he's often cast aside in those conversations. He's undoubtedly a top-20 player in the league and a future Hall of Famer. The annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate (and three-time winner) is a legitimate team-changer, a ceiling-riser. We went from hoping for an average defense last year and being happy with middle of the ranks to now expecting a top-five defense next year. That's the Gobert effect. He just puts a lid on the basket whether he actually blocks shots, alters the attempt, or intimidates shooters from even challenging him. The impact I expect him to have on this team is insane.

Did Minnesota give up way too much? Yes, I believe they did. But if they make a couple of legitimate runs at the conference finals and beyond, will we look back and think fondly of this move? I tend to believe we will, especially because of how little winning we've experienced as fans of this organization. It's an all-in move with an aggressive front office supported by new ownership who appears to be results-driven and invested as fans of the product. They want to win as much as we do. When you take all of that into account I think you can talk yourself into enjoying the next couple of years. They might have to reshuffle some parts later on, but they likely went from a team that had a fifth-seed ceiling to a team that could be playing in the NBA Finals if things go their way. That has to mean something.

Good post, Cam. A thoughtful analysis that accurately captures the upside of this deal. I still dislike the deal, but I'll have to deal with it. :). Fingers crossed that our two bigs and Ant stay healthy. You and I agree that the Wolves gave up too much in this deal. I think we differ a bit on just how much better this deal made the Wolves. I'll have to ponder how much better this team is right now than it would have been with we Beverley, Kessler and Myles Turner, Capela or Richaun Holmes, all of them likely available for Beasley, Naz and maybe one future 1st. The Caesar's oddsmakers increased the Wolves championship odds from 80-1 to 50-1. That's a significant gain, but 50-1 doesn't seem anywhere close to the value the Wolves just gave up for Rudy. And note the beginning odds of 80-1 did not reflect any further acquisitions like Capela or Turner. One thing for sure is that the Wolves have less depth, a much higher risk profile and far less flexibility to adjust and recover from the trials and unforeseeable events that always come along.

I'm with you in questioning whether keeping McDaniels was worth giving up multiple additional picks. I guess we don't know how many additional picks were substituted for McDaniels, but I believe it was more than one of the four. And I'm a big McDaniels fan who's been preaching patience. On the other hand, he hasn't been more than a role player so far and he was the 28th pick in the draft. To keep him, we apparently gave up probably two if not three picks at 28 or better.

My final thought is that there's a rhythm to things and this deal just seems out of rhythm. I guess that's just another riff on my tone deaf theme. There was an edge to this team with Beverley and even Beasley. There was excitement building in the arrival of Kessler and the potential of Bolmaro. We had all our future first-round picks and some additional moves to make that would have been more measured but still exciting. Beverly gave this team a personality that was infectious among teammates. I don't know what our team's personality is now.

And one final question. If the Wolves suddenly decided they wanted to turn around and trade Gobert, is there another team that would give the Wolves anything close to what we just gave Utah? My answer is absolutely not. That in itself is telling.

The only thing I'll mention or disagree with a bit is this. There were numerous reports of the Wolves looking to acquire Rudy, Turner, Capela and others. So that 80-1 was at least reflecting that a decent chance of the Wolves getting a defensive Center was priced in.

Had they stood pat maybe the odds drop to 100-1 or 120-1 instead of increasing to 50-1.

I've seen numerous national media reports and many pundits are grossly undervaluing Rudys impact on winning games.

The Wolves got beat by Memphis because they couldn't rebound the damn ball. They just acquired the best one in the NBA. Defense is not only about making a shot tougher, you need to also rebound. The Wolves couldn't do that. I'm happy we got the best rebounder in the NBA.

You'll have to forgive me, because I used the super-secret internet that no one else has, but I have learned that MEM actually LEAD THE LEAGUE in rebounding differential in the regular season. And who is to say that Kessler doesn't help with that? So if MIN get bumped from the '23 playoffs by another good rebounding team and has a negative rebounding differential, are going to FINALLY admit that you're horrible at this, or are you going to try to change the subject to another sports (or god forbid non-sports) topic?

monsterpile wrote:

JasonIsDaMan wrote:

WolvesFan21 wrote:

KG4Ever wrote:For the record, I hate this trade, hated Butler trade and hated DLo trade. This might even be the worst one of the bunch. What the fkk happened to "no shortcuts." Timmy getting paid $8 million to make garbage trades like this. Geez, I might be done with this team as I don't think I'll ever live to see them win anything. Go Warriors!

You do know Rudy is a better player then KAT right? There is a thing called defense and the Wolves just got it done. They are also banking on those picks being late 1st rounders, with Ant here who legitimately could be a top 5 player in a few years those odds are fairly likely as well.

I love the trade. The Wolves are now Championship contenders.

Man you are so good at this.
1. What a shock that a guy who cuts-and-pastes wikipedia pages from 60-year-old events and posts 30-year-old TV clips has a problem with the concept of "regressing with age".
2. Rudy Gobert is a 30 year old man who has had a tremendous career as a defensive player. KAT is 25, should be used a more-athletic Dirk (which no one seems to figure out), and is finally playing for a good coach.
3. For Ant to develop, his usage rate actually has to increase SLIGHTY. So between Ant and Kat, the guy who Bitched constantly about Donovan Mitchell taking too many shots is now going to be OK?

Dirk won a championship at 32 playing next to a lengthy rim protector. The Wolves added the best rim protector in the game and is now going to play Towns more as a PF. Based on this point I conclude Jason clearly LOVES this trade!! Lol

monsterpile wrote:

JasonIsDaMan wrote:

WolvesFan21 wrote:

TheGrey08 wrote:

WolvesFan21 wrote:

KG4Ever wrote:For the record, I hate this trade, hated Butler trade and hated DLo trade. This might even be the worst one of the bunch. What the fkk happened to "no shortcuts." Timmy getting paid $8 million to make garbage trades like this. Geez, I might be done with this team as I don't think I'll ever live to see them win anything. Go Warriors!

You do know Rudy is a better player then KAT right? There is a thing called defense and the Wolves just got it done. They are also banking on those picks being late 1st rounders, with Ant here who legitimately could be a top 5 player in a few years those odds are fairly likely as well.

I love the trade. The Wolves are now Championship contenders.

You do know KAT is the best big man shooter in NBA history right?

They are opposites, one is great on D, the other is great on O. The paring is fine as long as they can avoid teams getting them in a spin cycle. They gave up massive draft capital, which is the problem IMO.

I'm not concerned about the draft capital as long as those picks are late 1sts. Very rarely do late 1st rounders even pan out to be starters. Jaden McDaniels is a rarity. Look at the last 10 years of picks from 20-32 and tell me you are concerned. Usually only about 10% of those guys pan out. The odds are very low.

I believe you mean "Rudy Gobert is a rarity", since he was the 30th pick in his draft. It's even on his Wikipedia page. So how about their $8mm-per "POBO" keeps the picks, drafts his own Goberts, and trades them all for four picks?

Maybe you should start copying and pasting from Wikipedia.

JasonIsDaMan wrote:

mrhockey89 wrote:I see a lot of hate on the Wolves pairing big men, with suggestions that they think they're going to old school ball with a Duncan/Admiral pairing. I don't like that comparison...

I think the better comp is when Dallas acquired Tyson Chandler. He was the exact piece they needed to propel them to a championship. Dallas already had a historically good 3 point shooting big man who couldn't keep up with PFs defensively. They paired two 7' big men with almost eerily similar strengths to Towns/Gobert, and not only did they figure out how to make it work, but they won the title. Dallas let Chandler go soon after and Dallas saw that Chandler was that missing piece as they dwindled back down out of contention.

Was Dirk/Chandler better than Towns/Gobert? Nope. Dallas also had Kidd, but we have other pieces too. I'm curious why people are so concerned with this not being a fit? Are we really worried about Towns getting blown by only to have a PF attack the best rim protector in the league?

{Sigh} I like Tyson Chandler. I have never met anyone who doesn't like Tyson Chandler. He was roundabout 31 y/o when Dallas got him and agreed to pay Raymond Felton's future years for 4 not-great expirings and 2 2nd's. This was "The King of Williston's" first move in an attempt to clear capspace. Some say no one will play for Dolan. Gilbert Arenas says that no one wants to play in NY because the fans treat the visiting team better than they treat the Knicks. So they didn't get anybody. Either way, that's what happened. So no, not 4 1st's, a pick swap, 3 young players, and two usable expirings.

WolvesFan21 wrote:I think Gobert is our best player now. I saw ESPN had him at 26 and KAT at 25 last year but I honestly think Gobert is undervalued because he does NON flashy things like blocking shots and rebounding at an elite level.

People get caught up in highlight dunks and long range threes. Defense is undervalued in the NBA I think by many media pundits and fans.

JasonIsDaMan wrote:

WolvesFan21 wrote:I think Gobert is our best player now. I saw ESPN had him at 26 and KAT at 25 last year but I honestly think Gobert is undervalued because he does NON flashy things like blocking shots and rebounding at an elite level.

People get caught up in highlight dunks and long range threes. Defense is undervalued in the NBA I think by many media pundits and fans.

Know what I believe? I believe he's 30 and he has peaked athletically while Kat is 25. And as Baseball has learned, be VERY CAREFUL about paying for past production.

Camden wrote:Hey, Jason. Stop being a dick. You're routinely being smug and arrogant to respectful posters here who have simply shared their takes. Refute or counter their takes with logic, evidence, and supporting data if you'd like, but you can put an end to the bullshit attitude. Nobody here needs to tolerate that nor do they deserve it.

FNG wrote:

JasonIsDaMan wrote:

FNG wrote:I guess we knew Lore was a "go big or go home" kind of guy, and he certainly went big. The national pundits are largely panning the deal for the Wolves (I see a lot of A grades for Utah, and C's and D's for us), and I haven't fully analyzed it yet. But it's hard for me to rip a deal that instantly makes us a top 4 seed...and in the conversation for a championship. We will be starting one of the longest front lines in the history of the NBA, with two of them elite defenders and one an improving defender. It's difficult to not get excited about this deal. I hate to lose PatBev and Vando, but I wasn't that excited about Kessler and at least the first three lost picks should be in the mid to late 20s...not a big deal. Plus, we have instantly become an attractive destination for a vet guard who wants to win a championship (haven't thought of names yet). What veteran guard who wants to win wouldn't want to join a team with Gobert, KAT and Ant in the starting lineup?

My biggest concern about this team is whether DLo is going to stay, and if so, is he going to fizzle in the playoffs again. Obviously I would have preferred to see him go out and Conley come in, but I'm guessing Utah wasn't too enamored of Russell. The stats may say differently, but DLo looked best on defense last year when he had PatBev next to him allowing him to play free safety. My concern is we are going to see the DLo defense of old, and that will be a big roadblock to the kind of success this roster can have...elite rim protectors' value is limited if you have a guy opposing teams can target to get wide open threes. Maybe TC still has a way to move him and bring in a defensive-minded pass-first guard...if so, this team could make it to the finals. If not, we're going to have to cheer for Russell, and hope Finchie doesn't have to sub J-Mac in for him in the playoffs again.

In any event, this is going to be fun...

Wow
1. This is to everybody: NOTHING SAYS THOSE PICK HAVE TO BE IN THE TWENTIES! Maybe they disappoint, maybe a couple of key guys get injured. Ask '97 San Antonio, or recent era GSW.
2. My biggest concern about DLO is that he is not great at breaking down his guy, so RG's guy doesn't need to go stop ball, so there's no lob, and RG is not great a creating his own shot.
3. If J-Mac is getting more than 6 minutes a game for you in the playoffs, they'll be mercifully short.

Of course they don't have to be in the 20s. But we make projections here based on past history and how that might translate into the future. Gobert teams have regularly finished high in the standings with a supporting cast that doesn't seem close to the one he will have here. Sure, maybe there are devastating injuries. But I think most pundits would forecast 50+ wins for this club the next few years.

And if the trade turns out to be a disaster, we will have two supermax guys to trade for draft picks and expiring contracts. I don't think that will happen, but it's the floor for this deal IMO.

Phenom's_Revenge wrote:

JasonIsDaMan wrote:

Phenom's_Revenge wrote:On the flipside, think to KGs tenure here. 8 straight first round playoff exits. Everytime someone like Gary Payton or Allen Iverson became available the Wolves came up short or got cold feet. They went all in once and really it was lightning in a bottle with Sam Cassell having his best year at the right time. That time period is known in basketball history for wasting away Garnett's career.

This deal sets to elevate Town's prime years and maximize Ant's upside years, not sit back and hope that someone will eventually come along. We could be waiting another 4 years to get another premier player for Towns and then he will be 30. If this ultimately doesn't work the team can conceivably get 2 more bites at the Ant prime apple. Why wait? Let's go!

Loved the topic, went downhill from there.
1. "Came up short on Gary Payton"? Very true, but not for the reason you think. GP was traded for former Timberwolf Ray Allen, so yeah, Allen for Payton definitely could have happened. And not for nothing, but Maybe Lurch takes the draft slash his job a little more seriously.
2. I remember the Iverson thing being for very specific guy(s) that Larry Brown wanted. If you have evidence that LB wanted a Wolf or Wolves that weren't KG, I would love to see it.
3. Cassell wasn't "all in". It was basically Joe Smith. No Firsts.
4. "Hope"? How about they do their job and draft "someone"? Like that time Utah drafted Gobert.
5. So why is it that KAT being 30 is so not-great but it's fine with RG?

What is your deal exactly? Every post you make comes off like someone stole your woman and you need to come in swinging your dick to regain territory.

I don't have a problem with Gobert being 30. You are making my point for me. If we are going to have a problem with Gobert's age then we shouldn't want to wait for something else to just come along in the next 4 years because then you will have a problem with KAT being 30. And yes, Cassell wasn't an all-in. Again the team sat happy with 8 first round exits before nabbing Cassell who happened to have had a career year and getting Spree when his value was fairly low.

As for GP and AI the point is the Wolves didn't capitalize when they had even a sliver of chance. All of these things are opposite of how it was done with KG and I dig it.